Are there still McCain doubters out there?

[Stevendsmith]

I post on this subject frequently because I believe McCain poses the greatest post-Bush threat to what’s left of our Democracy. I think this threat is vastly underestimated if not outright dismissed by an alarming number of progressives.

Invariably when I post about the threat of McCain, the doubters dismiss McCain for the following reasons:

He’s too old.
The fundies hate him, therefore he won’t survive the primaries.
He’s got an anger problem.
He’s got health issues, namely he’s had skin cancer.
All the Dems need to do is wave around the pictures of him hugging Bush and he's finished.

My observations on McCain are as follows:

He is a media darling and run-away favorite for the Republican nomination among the corporate-conservative mainstream media. The elite punditry (which includes just about all the major opinion-shapers) practically gushes over McCain. They have already anointed him as the frontrunner — if not the prohibitive favorite to win the White House. The media portray the extremely conservative, die-hard Reaganite, Bush-loyalist, uber-hawk McCain as a moderate, a uniter, the embodiment of bipartisanship. This myth has become received wisdom among a great swath of Americans (including a considerable number of Democrats), who believe that his POW experience makes him unquestionably the right man for the job of leading America in the War on Terror.© Early indications show the Republican Establishment lining up behind McCain, with checkbooks in hand.

So for those of you who still believe that McCain has no chance, I ask you this:

What the hell are you smoking?

[LA lady]

1. I don't smoke

I live in an area that is so red it glows. Much of my family is Republican and not a single one of them can stand McCain nor will they vote for him.

The press is feeding him to the Repubs like they push Hillary on the Democrats.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

11. This is what I've noticed in my area

I live in the red state of Texas and I don't know a single Republican who is willing to support him in the primaries. He's just not anyones first choice around here.

[Stevendsmith]

24. You make a persuasive point

"The press is feeding him to the Repubs like they push Hillary on the Democrats."

But if not McCain, then who?

[BushOut06]

2. Why do you dismiss the single most important obstacle?

He won't win in the GOP primaries. Sure, the M$M may love him. "Moderates" might love him.

Who do you think votes in the primaries? Ultra-conservative Republicans. I can't think of a single conservative that I know who supports McCain. My boss, who would be described as pretty conservative, can't stand him. He thinks McCain and Guliani are far too "liberal". THESE are the people who vote in the primaries. It is they who will decide who the GOP candidate is, not the mainstream media. The people who are likely to vote in the GOP primaries want someone who is staunchly conservative, pro-war, pro-tax cuts, anti-choice, etc.

[Stevendsmith]

4. McCain will spend the next two years courting the base.

I think he'll succeed because the Republican Establishment will be funding his efforts.

[BushOut06]

5. How many conservatives do you talk to?

Seriously. Getting many Republicans to support McCain would be like trying to convince us to vote for Lieberman in the Democratic primaries. Ain't going to happen, no matter how much he pushes it.

There will be other Republicans tossing their hat in the ring over the next year. Brownback's already announced his candidacy. While I despise him and think he's probably the most dangerous candidate we've had in awhile, he has very solid conservative credentials. However, I have a feeling the '08 nominee will be someone who hasn't announced yet.

[Zavulon]

9. Based on what his base wants, the point of no return has already been crossed.

McCain is viewed by the right as Zell Miller is on the left, even though the two cases aren't comparable by those who actually follow politics. Don't bet a cent on McCain, friend. Seriously.

[Stevendsmith]

6. McCain is staunchly conservative, pro-war, pro-tax cuts, anti-choice

He'll make that clear to the base. Watch.

[BushOut06]

10. He also supports campaign finance reform

Conservatives cannot stomach the thought that corporations or individuals would no longer be able to funnel massive amounts of cash to their favorite politicians.

[Stevendsmith]

15. It's the Establishment that cares about CFR, not the average Rethug voter

And the establishment is lining up behind McCain. He'll get past this issue.

I amazed that after all this time, people still underestimate the power of the Republican Establishment. It can work terrible wonders.

[BushOut06]

17. Bullshit

Almost every conservative I know cites this as one of their primary reasons for not liking McCain.

Seriously, how many conservatives do you actually talk to? Are you just going by the polls and the mainstream media? I don't know a single conservative who supports him. And THESE are the ones who will be voting.

[demnan]

3. Well, I think Edwards thinks he'll be it

Edwards is already running against McCain, which I think is a smart strategy. I do think it will be Edwards and McCain, but it is early in the season. I think Edwards can beat McCain.

[Zavulon]

7. Marlboro Lights.

Unless Hillary runs, the conservative turnout in 2008 won't carry a Gang of 14 member who coddles people here illegally and believes in what many refer to as assaults on the First Amendment (I refer here to the well-intentioned but ultimately dimwitted campaign finance reform he pushed through). McCain has only a slightly better chance of getting the Repug nomination than I do.

May I borrow your lighter?

[jbonkowski]

8. You conveniently forget something

McCain was a major media darling in 2000, too. The press fawned over him, and wrote off Bush early on. McCain was the "Straight Talker" back then, too. McCain was considered a moderate, a uniter, an embodiment of bipartisanship, with the POW background lending him gravitas. This press lie is more transparent now than it was then.

If McCain gets the nomination, it will only be because it is collectively decided to be "his turn", as it was for Bob Dole in '96.

Nothing else you mention matters.

jim

[demigoddess]

12. I think a lot of republicans will vote for him because he is former POW

and others will because he is a decent, idealistic man but the neo cons will use him as a puppet to maintain power and continue their agenda. With their machine behind him he could win the nomination.
In 2004 we had some democrats who screamed that Kerry could not lose because he was a veteran and therefore would be respected by the conservatives. And you see where that got us. We had some in our dem caucuses. They seem to be infiltrators who try to affect who we nominate.

[Stevendsmith]

13. Bingo.

You make two crucial points:

A lot of republicans will vote for him because he is former POW.

With the Republican machine behind him he could win the nomination.

These two factors will enable him to transcend the objections of the ultra-nutters, who are a minority in this Country.

[BushOut06]

16. Sheesh

See my post below. Just because he's a veteran doesn't mean the GOP is going to automatically fall in love with him.

If McCain is so goddamned electable, why didn't he win the nomination back in '00?

[Stevendsmith]

20. He didn't win in 2000 because the Establishment supported Bush

Today, it appears the Establishment is supporting McCain, the heir apparent to Bush.

[BushOut06]

23. I don't think the Establishment really has annointed anyone yet

McCain is getting support because he's currently the most visible GOP candidate. As I've said before, that could change very quickly as other Republicans start throwing their hat into the ring.

The only way McCain wins the '08 nomination is if many conservatives sit home and don't vote out of disgust for their lack of choices.

[BushOut06]

14. He's ridden the POW veteran pony as far as he can go

And the hardcore right Swiftboated him back in '00. As someone already pointed out, McCain was also the media's darling back then, touting his Vietnam service and his POW status. Didn't get him very far back then either.

By the time the GOP smear-machine gets through with McCain, not many repugs will vote for him. Remember the allegations that he sold out his comrades in return for special treatment from the Vietcong?

[Stevendsmith]

18. First of all

I am thoroughly enjoying this debate. You make solid points, and I hope you're right. But I think you are ascribing too much power to the hardcore base. Granted, the nutters were decisive in Rove's strategy for Bush. But in that case, they were needed to offset moderate opposition to Bush. In the case of McCain, I believe his "moderate" appeal with transcend the objections of the hardcore nutters.

But the general consensus here is that he won't make it through the primaries. I may be underestimating the power of the wingnut contingent, but I just believe that with the Establishement behind him, McCain can overcome this obstacle.

[BushOut06]

19. I think the Rove Machine will control the '08 election

They won't want to jeopardize the work they've done. They'll annoint someone as their candidate, probably within the next few months. I really have no idea who it is, but I really don't see RoveCo backing McCain. He's seen as too much of a maverick in GOP circles. They want someone they know they can either control, or someone who is solidly in their camp.

[Stevendsmith]

22. I agree that the Rove machine will control the '08 election

And I believe that McCain is ready to be controlled by that machine. he'll do whatever it takes to win the White House, including swinging hard right to win the primaries, then going back into "strong uniter" mode for the general.

I'll need to find the links, but i recall some credible recent reporting that the Establishment (i.e., the Rove machine) is already lining up behind McCain.

[tulsakatz]

21. people know McCain can't be trusted.........

...and the reasons are obvious! He's the biggest flip flopper!!

He always acts like he's going to do the right thing but in the end, he always caves in to whatever Bush wants. A good example of that is when the 3 republicans objected to Bush's torture bill. They talked about it for a few days and McCain said he was convinced that it would preserve the geneva conventions but in the end, it accomplished nothing!

Bush still had his torture bill just the way he wanted it!

[NewJeffCT]

27. Bush is a huge flip-flopper, too

However, it was Kerry that got pinned with that label in 2004. When Bush did change position, it was "evolving" or a "strategic re-assessment" in the media, and not flip-flopping.

And, Bush flip-flopped over 3 1/2 years, while any of Kerry's changes were over 20.

[Bombtrack]

25. It's something we don't want to believe but it's bullshit to not give him probably the best chance

at the nomination.

More of the establishment in the GOP is rallying towards him than any other candidate.

I'm hoping some of the "Imus Curse" rubs off on him in being the biggest member of the Imus ass-kiss club and losing experienced by Ford. And atleast in so much that he was Imus' candidate over Bush, also Kerry.

[Stevendsmith]

26. Well, you're one of two responders that agree with me.

And that's not me whining. I'm just amazed that the established frontrunner for the GOP nomination is so broadly dismissed here.

[MrCoffee]

29. Why are you amazed?

The "established frontrunners" for the Democrats are routinely dismissed or worse here.

[Stevendsmith]

30. Well.... good point.

But the dismissal of Dem candidates is usually because DUers don't believe those Dems represent their political views.

The dismissal of McCain as a credible presidential threat just seems disconnected with reality.

[MrCoffee]

33. FWIW, i agree with you.

McCain is dangerous now as the media darling of the Right, but that's not discounting the possibility that he may fall from grace.

We would do well to aim the guns outward, rather than inward, from time to time.

[NewJeffCT]

28. I think whoever wins the Republic nomination is dangerous

Be it McCain, Giuliani, Hagel, Brownback, Huckabee or whomever.

They have the media behind them.

[MrCoffee]

31. Huckabee is the one that scares the hell out of me

[Stevendsmith]

35. Could there ever be a "President Huckabee"?

I don't think so.

I believe a "non-presidential-sounding" name can effectively disqualify someone from becoming president of the United States.

I don't think there could ever be a President Feingold or a President Vilsac.

[BushOut06]

32. Don't discount Newt Gingrich

He has yet to decide if he's going to run, but every indication seems to be that he will. If he does run, I expect that he'll give McCain a good run for his money. He has the name recognition, and the despite his personal history, the Christian right would likely rally around him.

If he does run, he'll attract the more die-hard Republican voters.

[Stevendsmith]

36. Oh God, please no!!

Hey, after two terms of Bush I won't dismiss any Republican candidate.

[BushOut06]

37. Actually I would love to see Newt as the GOP candidate

Honestly, I think either McCain or Guliani would have a better chance of winning the WH in '08, but I think that neither one would win the nomination. I hope I'm right in that regard. I would love to see someone like Newt Gingrich win the Republican nomination. IMHO, I don't think he would have much chance in the general election. It would give me no short amount of pleasure to watch all the anti-Newt ads.

[Horse with no Name]

34. My mom lives in Arizona

She is a Democrat.
She has always loved McCain.
She said over this holiday she will not support him for President.
Six months ago she said she would.
Times they are a changin...

[Disturbed]

38. If McLame indicates that his VP will be Jeb Bush

the Rethugs will most likely annoint. I would not be surprised if that deal has already been struck.

[Horse with no Name]

39. Mark my words

There will not be another Bush elected in this country for a very long time.
THAT is why Poppy was crying last month. He knows it.
Now...if we don't fix the voting irregularities, who knows?