2008 Senate Elections - An even larger GOP massacre? (Update: Freepers dreading it already!)

[Grebrook]

In 2008 the Republicans are in for another "Thumpin", as Bush put it. In 2008, a lopsided 21 Republicans are running for re-election against just 12 Democrats, most of whom are safe bets. Here is the complete list:

Democrats:

Max Baucus (Safe seat)
Carl Levin (Safe seat)
Mark Pryor (Safe seat, might become competitive if Huckabee runs against him, but its more likely he'll seek the VP spot for 08')
Dick Durbin (Safe seat)
Joe Biden (Safe seat)
John Kerry (Safe seat)
Jack Reed (Safe seat)
Jay Rockefeller (Safe seat)
Tim Johnson (Safe seat)

Tom Harkin (Vulnerable)
Mary Landrieu (Very vulnerable)
Frank Lautenberg (Very vulnerable)

The way I see, Lautenberg is the only visible Democrat in "deep shit", so to speak. Landrieu has positive approval ratings, but she's got serious problems running in Louisiana, which has lost a lot of black voters, and which is trending strongly Republican over the last couple of years. Lautenberg and Landrieu are the most vulnerable seats. Harkin is also pretty vulnerable, he only wins by squeakers. Tim Johnson of South Dakota is a guaranteed re-election unless the GOP governor of SD runs against him, in which it'll be a nail biter, but Johnson will still hold an edge. He has a 70%+ approval rating. Conceivably, the only safe seat that might be in trouble if the Dem retires is Jay Rockefeller out in West Virginia, but I've learned never to underestimate the staggering power of the West Virginia Democratic Party on the state-level.

On the Republican side, the situation is ripe for some pickups:

Saxy Chambliss (Safe seat)
Jeff Sessions (Safe seat)
Thad Cockran (Safe seat)
Larry Craig (Safe seat)
Chuck Hagel (Safe seat)
Michael Enzi (Safe seat)
Lindsay Graham (Safe seat, unless he's defeated in the GOP primary)
Mitch McConnell (Safe seat)
Ted Stevens (Safe seat)
John Warner (Probably safe seat, but it's a toss-up if he retires)
Elizabeth Dole (Safe seat, unless Dem governor runs for it)
Susan Collins (Safe seat, but guaranteed pick up if she retires)
Pete Domenici (Safe seat, if he retires, it's a toss up)

Wayne Allard (Very vulnerable)
Gordon Smith (Very vulnerable)
John Sununu (Vulnerable)
John Cornyn (Vulnerable)
Pat Roberts (Vulnerable)
James Inhofe (Vulnerable)
Norm Coleman (Vulnerable)

Ultimately, the number of GOP vulnerable seats may increase dramatically depending on how many open seats there are. If Susan Collins retires in Maine, that's practically an automatic Democratic pick up. If Elizabeth Dole resigns in North Carolina, that will be a nail biter unless the Republicans nominate someone very popular, and if the current Democratic governor runs for the open seat, it's a likely pick up; if he runs against Dole, that's a nail biter. If John Warner resigns in Virginia and it's an open seat, the Dems have a good chance of picking it up as Virginia continues to trend Democratic. Wayne Allard is unpopular in Colorado, which has undergone a political realignment. That's a high priority pick up opportunity. If he doesn't run in 2008, there's a very good chances Dems will pick it up. Sununu, another high priority pick up opportunity in a state trending steadily Democratic. Pat Roberts, amazingly, is slightly unpopular in Kansas, which is another state where Democrats have gained a lot of ground, knocking off the GOP Attorney General and one house incumbent in Kansas and the Dem governor winning a landslide re-election. Kansas is currently undergoing a civil war between moderate and conservative Republicans that might bleed over into 2008. It's getting intense out there. Republicans are jumping ship. 9 of them ran as Democrats in Kansas in 2006. Some won. James Inhofe, AMAZINGLY, has proven unpopular in Oklahoma. Even in Oklahoma people recognize this guy as an extremist. The question is whether the Dems can find someone with some stature to challenge him. If they can, they could very well knock him off. Cornyn in Texas is another surprise. Low approval ratings. He's proven to be an extremist as well, about 30 points less popular than his fellow GOP senator. We can knock this guy off if we find a popular Dem. We'll see. Gordon Smith is running in a blue state and is only modest in his approval ratings. Another pick up opportunity. Coleman is also a strange case. If Franken runs this will be a particularly intense race, and Minnesota is fluctuating right now. IT's both trending Dem and Rep at the same time. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

So I think 2008 will be a good year in the sense that there's very little chance Republicans will retake the Senate. A likely scenario, I think, is that we probably gain 2 seats overall. The worst case scenario I can see is that we lose 1 seat and who controls the senate will be decided by who the vice president is.

Edit: thanks for the reminder, forgot about Coleman.

Edit: The Freepers agree with me!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1736477/posts

[Lindacooks]

1. Remember that weasel Coleman in Minnesota.

Who stole Senator Wellstone's seat.

[theboss]

2. There may be some retirements in that lot

If Warner in VA retires, that seat suddenly becomes very open. Particularly if Mark Warner decides that his family is boring after all. It would not shock me if Libby Dole quit too.

[Actionman]

3. Frank Lautenberg is safe in New Jersey

unless he retires and he will run win then retire...

[Grebrook]

5. I don't know, if Corzine improves his performance Lautenberg should be ok, but right now he's got

38% approval ratings. If not for the fact that this is NJ, he'd be a gonner. We might actually have a better chance of retaining the seat if Lautenberg retires. I hope he does. Rob Andrews would be a pretty safe bet to replace him. Tom Kean Jr. couldn't beat Menendez, but he might have better luck running against Lautenberg.

[Ignacio Upton]

11. Lautenberg should retire

Unlike Byrd he is not popular in his state (however New Jerseyans hate their politicians in general.) His age is also a concern, as he will be over 80. If Kean Jr. runs again, that's one hell of an arguement to make. However, the candidate I would like to see run is Congressman Rush Holt. Holt represents a fairly moderate suburban district in northern New Jersey, and was actually a scientist before he entered politics.

[Jersey Devil]

16. Agree on Holt and judging by all the email he sends me

I think he already has his eye on it. I live in Bergen County, out of his district, have never contributed to him or signed up for his mailing list yet he mails me all the time.

[Jersey Devil]

15. We hate all our politicians in NJ

Geez, I can't remember when one had an approval rating of 50%. Kean came across as a lightweight and I think that was obvious to most voters. If Lautenberg retires I think Rush Holt or Steve Rothman would make good candidates in addition to Andrews.

[Ediacara]

4. I disagree in some areas

I think Baucus may be challenged, but I suspect it'll turn into the same slaughter that happened last time around. There are only two big Montana Republicans that are popular enough to possibly beat Baucus: Racicot and Rehberg. Racicot declined in 2002 when the GOP candidate breifly quit, and Rehberg ran against Baucus and lost in 1996. Still though.... they'll try to take him out.

I think Johnson and Pryor are a lot less safe than you think, but still in a good position to win.

You left out another good Dem pickup opportunity: Pete Domenici of New Mexico is probably going to retire, and given the state's generally purple pattern, we have a great opportnity.

[Grebrook]

6. According to SurveyUSA Mark Pryor is actually more popular than Blanche Lincoln

Arkansas seems to be trending back toward the Democrats. Very low approval ratings for Bush. They put a Democrat back in the govenor's mansion. Pryor has a healthy 58% approval rating. He's a conservative Dem, anyway. When voters in conservative states are given a choice between a conservative Dem and a conservative Rep they seem to choose the Dem more often. Once the abortion issue is out of the way, Dems seem to hold the advantage when it comes to economic matters.

[Bucky]

7. When he was elected, Lautenberg said it was only for one term

He'd already retired from the Senate once when some scandal dragged him back in as a last minute replacement six years ago. This would be a good opportunity to nominate a real reformer.

[Hippo_Tron]

10. Dems have a deep bench in New Jersey

Plus now that Jr. lost by 8 points, who will the GOP get to run?

[Ignacio Upton]

12. Kean Jr. will try again

Make no mistake, had this not been such a bad year for Republicans, he would have won. Menendez was the last person Corzine should have appointed for his seat. I will support Lautenberg if he chooses to run again, but I hope he doesn't. He only came out of retirement because Robert Torecelli, corrupt douchebag Dem, stepped out of the race and Doug Forrester was poised to win the seat.

[Jersey Devil]

18. Holt, Andrews, Rothman, all could beat lightweight Kean

NJ voters discovered he was not a chip off the old block but probably the milkman's kid.

[Ignacio Upton]

21. Maybe Kean will run for Governor in 2009 against Corzine

Assuming something happens that causes NJ voters to send Corzine's jump approval plummeting again (and the cynical part of me feels something will happen, considering the problems NJ Democrats have had over the last four years or so.) NJ Dems could easily end up like the OH GOP if they don't be careful.

[Jersey Devil]

25. Corzine seems serious about doing something about property tax reform

If he does he'll be a hero and nobody will be able to touch him. That is the biggest issue in NJ on the state level. Hell, I pay $11,600 per year in property taxes. Under his most recent proposal that might be cut by as much as 20%, which sure would please a lot of people.

[Ignacio Upton]

27. He also needs to dismantle the machine pols

New Jersey Democrats are eerily becoming like Ohio Republicans in terms of institutional corruption in the cases of Torricelli, McGreevey, Lynch, and Corzine's first pick for AG. While Menendez hasn't done anything illegal, he gives off the IMPRESSION of corruption. Corzine was warned not to pick Menendez as his successor but he caved, in part because Menendez had a shit load of money and would have waged a divisive primary.

[Selatius]

8. The mention of Norm Coleman and John Cornyn's names really piss me off for some reason.

I don't know why. In 2008, I want their names to go away from the Senate roster.

[Ignacio Upton]

13. Coleman yes, Cornyn no

The Texas Democratic bench sucks ass, so unfortunately baring some scandal a la DeLay, he is safe. Coleman could be beaten by Mike Hatch, who only narrowly lost to Pawlenty in the Governor's race (sorry Al Franken, but I don't think your campaign will be taken seriousyl.)

[Grebrook]

17. I agree that Franken worries me that he won't be taken seriously, but Texas

is such a huge state I figure the Dems might have a deep bench of individuals they can look to. Hopefully Cornyn will keep putting his foot in his mouth all the way into 2008. That might boost a second-tier candidate.

[Ignacio Upton]

20. Texas Dems are inept

They couldn't even beat Governor Goodhair in a four-way race.

[Hippo_Tron]

9. With Landrieu it is all about who the GOP gets to challenge her

Bobby Jindal has his eye set on the Governor's mansion and he will likely win. Thus he's out of the running. I think her only real threat is Congressman Charles Boustany. Boustany represents Lafayette which was critical for Landrieu's win last time. Bush and Suzzie Terrell (Landrieu's opponent last time) went to Lafayette and tried to win them over with abortion. Landrieu campaigned on economic issues in Lafayette, sugar in particular, and won the key swing vote there.

If Boustany probably knows his home district better than Terrell did and thus it is unlikely he would make a the same mistake. Hence, he'd be a formidable opponent.

[Ignacio Upton]

14. Landrieu also doesn't have NOLA to help her win

She only beat Terrell because of votes from NOLA.

[Hippo_Tron]

22. True, but she's better off with her seniority 6 years later

That should be enough to overcome the NOLA disadvantage, at least I hope. The key is if she has a strong challenger or not.

[Superman Returns]

19. question

why is Lautenberg so unpopular? Either way, he should retire. Too old. Lets hope we get a good dem to run, not another douchebag like Menendez. Corzine should have just stayed in the Senate and Codey should have just remained Governor. I really don't like NJ Dems

[TlalocW]

23. How is Inhofe a vulnerable seat?

TlalocW

[Warren DeMontague]

24. Yeah, but Cornyn has the anti-turtle fucking vote locked up tight!

Y'know, just like his man-on-dog mentor, Ricky Santorum.

[Strelnikov_]

26. I Agree

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=2620277

I would place Harkin in the safe category. That is, unless the new Dem Gov and Legislature screw up over the next two years, but that goes for about any statewide political office anywhere in the country.

[Grebrook]

28. Yeah, I think Iowa is still a swing state, and that Dems did good because of backlash against the

overall Republican party on a national level, which seemed to help the Dem candidate in the governor's race along the margins. Arizona, New York, New Hampshire, Arkansas and especially Colorado are the places where Dems seem to have really surged in a way that could spell longterm political changes. Iowa could just be temporary if Dems don't do a good job, like Pennsylvania. We need to keep our majority and our gains and make them permanent.