formally known as the Iraq Study Group.
Since March, Baker, backed by a team of experienced national-security hands, has been busily at work trying to devise a fresh set of policies to help the president chart a new course in--or, perhaps, to get the hell out of--Iraq. But as with all things involving James Baker, there's a deeper political agenda at work as well. "Baker is primarily motivated by his desire to avoid a war at home--that things will fall apart not on the battlefield but at home. So he wants a ceasefire in American politics," a member of one of the commission's working groups told me. Specifically, he said, if the Democrats win back one or both houses of Congress in November, they would unleash a series of investigative hearings on Iraq, the war on terrorism, and civil liberties that could fatally weaken the administration and remove the last props of political support for the war, setting the stage for a potential Republican electoral disaster in 2008. "I guess there are people in the party, on the Hill and in the White House, who see a political train wreck coming, and they've called in Baker to try to reroute the train."
The fact that Baker is involved has sent the Washington rumor mill buzzing with the theory that the commission is really a Trojan Horse for the views of Baker's friend and former boss, George H.W. Bush. It has been widely speculated that the former president never agreed with his son's decision to invade Iraq, and the son appears to have repaid that perceived dissent by largely refusing to reach out to his father for advice on national security, despite the elder Bush's knowledge and experience. In any case, for reasons that may be Oedipal or that may have to do with neoconservatives' disdain for realists associated with Bush 41, or both, Bush 43 has so far kept the 41 circle at arm's length--including Baker; his confrere Brent Scowcroft; and even, during his ill-fated tenure as secretary of state, Colin Powell. But with the situation in Iraq sliding towards irretrievable chaos, a moment of receptivity may have arrived.
It's hard to know what the commission is really up to because its inner workings are nearly as secretive as those of the White House. Baker has imposed an ironclad gag order on all of its participants. The 60 people involved in the effort have been instructed, in the strongest of terms, not to comment to reporters on the task force's work. Every one of the participants I spoke to flatly refused to comment for the record, and several did not want to talk even off the record. Some were palpably nervous. "We're not allowed to talk about it," said one person involved. "We get about every month a warning: 'Do not discuss in any context the substance of what is happening in this group.' You know how bad it is? Initially they wanted us to end all of our contacts with the media, make no statements, write no op-eds--in other words, become monks. Then they realized, how can you take the entire community of Iraq experts in the United States and have them all stop talking?"
~snip~
The president may have had another political motive for giving his blessing to the endeavor. If--and it's a very big if--Baker can forge a consensus plan on what to do about Iraq among the bigwigs on his commission, many of them leading foreign-policy figures in the Democratic Party, then the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee--whoever he (or she) is--will have a hard time dismissing the plan. And if the GOP nominee also embraces the plan, then the Iraq war would largely be off the table as a defining issue of the 2008 race--a potentially huge advantage for Republicans.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2006/0609.dreyfuss.htmlBush mentioned the Baker-Hamilton Commission four times in his news conference Wednesday. And now I see Dems coming out, deferring to the Baker-Hamilton Commission as a panacea for Iraq:
Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., chairman of the Democratic Policy Committee, on JIM LEHRER the other night:
Iraqis should handle security
MARGARET WARNER: Now, let's turn to Iraq, because we know a majority of voters said they wanted a change in Iraq. How much can Democrats deliver on that?
SEN. BYRON DORGAN: Once again, I think that the voice of the American people was really important here. I mean, they made some progress in sending a message to everybody in Washington, D.C., they didn't like what's happening.
~snip~
MARGARET WARNER: But, I mean, the White House says that's what they've been saying to the Maliki government all along. I guess my question is, are Democrats ready, for instance, to go so far as use the power of the purse, if you don't see that the president is willing or stepping up to really changing policy in a way that you think needs to be done?
SEN. BYRON DORGAN: We will not do anything that in any way ever undermines the troops. They serve this country because they're asked to serve this country. We won't do anything that undermines the troops.
But I think it's also clear that we now have this Baker-Hamilton group that will be reporting. Clearly, change is on the way, and we want to work with the president, with the Hamilton-Baker organization as they report and come up with some change that will move us in a position to be able to come out of Iraq at some point.
~snip~
The Democratic plan for Iraq
MARGARET WARNER: Now, some Democratic candidates ran calling for a pretty quick withdrawal of troops. You have others -- not yourself, you voted against the war resolution -- but some voted for it who haven't gone that far. Do Democrats now need to come up with a consistent position of their own on Iraq, on what to do going forward? Or is this still the president's responsibility?
~snip~
SEN. BYRON DORGAN: Let me just say that we Democrats will attempt in every way possible to come up with an approach that makes sense for our country and reflects our best interests. We want to do that with the president, with Hamilton-Baker. But is that going to be easy? No, it's not. But the American people clearly said Tuesday night, "We want some changes."
~snip~
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec06/dorgan_11-09.htmlAnd, Sen. Joseph Biden (D)
said Wednesday that the Baker-Hamilton commission’s recommendations could give the White House “the necessary political room to make a radical change” in Iraq policy.
http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascitystar/news/politics/15965831.htmSo, with regard to Iraq and Bushco foreign policy, seems that "Bush is still 'the decider'":
November 9, 2006
MANY AMERICANS are breathing a massive sigh of relief now that the Democrats have apparently won both houses of Congress and President Bush has sacked his hawkish Defense secretary, Donald H. Rumsfeld. At home and abroad, expectations are being raised that the power shift in Washington will rein in the Bush administration, restoring centrism, moderation and pragmatism to American foreign policy.
Not so fast.
~snip~
But expectations of an about-face on foreign policy are illusory. There will be more continuity than change; the ideological excesses of the Bush era are not yet behind us. At Wednesday's news conference, Bush did not budge on Iraq policy and stood by his bellicose vice president, Dick Cheney. It may well be up to the Democrats to ensure a change of course on foreign policy, but control of Congress does not give them the power to do so.
The U.S. Constitution grants the president a wide berth on matters of war and peace. Congress can chip away at the margins and seek to obstruct the White House, but it cannot dictate policy. Though it wields the power of the purse, Democratic leaders know it would be political and moral suicide to seek to force a withdrawal from Iraq by cutting off funds to U.S. troops deployed there. Such action would also enable the Republicans to shift the blame for failure in Iraq to the Democrats.
~snip~
Amid the political confrontation that will ensue when the 110th Congress opens in January, the Democrats may well be able to force changes to the Bush administration's domestic agenda — which was running out of steam well before this week's vote. But Congress is less likely to be able to shape precisely those foreign policies that helped turn the electorate toward the Democrats. On matters of statecraft, Bush is destined to remain "the decider" for another two years.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-kupchan9nov09,0,129222.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions