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Tester Wins election day vote, absentee being counted!!!! Montana margin beyond recount level.

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originalpckelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:03 AM
Original message
Tester Wins election day vote, absentee being counted!!!! Montana margin beyond recount level.
Edited on Wed Nov-08-06 09:47 AM by originalpckelly
From CNN:

Democratic Tester
190,486 49%

Republican Burns
(Incumbent)
188,900 48%

Libertarian Jones
9,990 3%

Total votes in election: 397376
Total difference between Burns and Tester: 1586
Percent that difference is of total vote: 2/5 of 1%

Percent of difference to trigger recount under Montana law: 1/4 of 1%

2/5 = .4
1/4 = .25

Tester has a lead large enough to avoid a recount!

Here is the law from Montana on recounts:

"13-16-201. Conditions under which recount to be conducted. (1) A recount must be conducted if:
(a) a candidate for a county, municipal, or district office voted for in only one county, other than a legislator or a judge of the district court, or a precinct office is defeated by a margin not exceeding 1/4 of 1% of the total votes cast or by a margin not exceeding 10 votes, whichever is greater, and the defeated candidate, within 5 days after the official canvass, files with the election administrator a verified petition stating that the candidate believes that a recount will change the result and that a recount of the votes for the office or nomination should be conducted;
(b) a candidate for a congressional office, a state or district office voted on in more than one county, the legislature, or judge of the district court is defeated by a margin not exceeding 1/4 of 1% of the total votes cast for all candidates for the same position, and the defeated candidate, within 5 days after the official canvass, files a petition with the secretary of state as set forth in subsection (1)(a). The secretary of state shall immediately notify by certified mail each election administrator whose county includes any precincts that voted for the office, and a recount must be conducted in those precincts.
(c) a question submitted to the vote of the people of a county, municipality, or district within a county is decided by a margin not exceeding 1/4 of 1% of the total votes cast for and against the question and a petition as set forth in subsection (1)(a) is filed with the election administrator. This petition must be signed by not less than 10 electors of the jurisdiction and must be filed within 5 days after the official canvass.
(d) a question submitted to the vote of the people of the state is decided by a margin not exceeding 1/4 of 1% of the total votes cast for and against the question and a petition as set forth in subsection (1)(a) is filed with the secretary of state. This petition must be signed by not less than 100 electors of the state, representing at least five counties of the state, and must be filed within 5 days after the official canvass.
(e) a question submitted to the vote of the people of a multicounty district is decided by a margin not exceeding 1/4 of 1% of the total votes cast for and against the question and a petition as set forth in subsection (1)(a) is filed with the secretary of state. This petition must be signed by not less than 25 electors of the district, representing at least two counties, and must be filed within 5 days after the official canvass.
(f) if a canvassing board petitions for a recount as provided in 13-15-403.
(2) When a recount is required under subsection (1)(b), (1)(d), or (1)(e), the secretary of state shall immediately notify each election administrator by certified mail of the filing of the petition, and a recount must be conducted in all precincts in each affected county."

1.It now appears, should no other votes come in during the official canvas, that Jon Tester is the new Senator from the great state of Montana!!!!!

2. More votes may appear for Burns in absentee, but from the election, Jon Tester wins.

3. Tester anticipates declaring victory soon, on MSNBC now, says just a couple of lose ends being tied up now.



Here is the method of the canvassing:
"13-15-403. Canvass to be public -- nonessentials to be disregarded -- petition for recount. (1) The canvass shall be public. It shall proceed by opening the returns, auditing the tally books or other records of votes cast, determining the vote for each individual and for and against each ballot issue from each precinct, compiling totals, and declaring or certifying the results.
(2) The board shall record all write-in votes shown in the returns from each precinct.
(3) The returns may not be rejected because of failure to show who administered the oath to the election judges, failure to complete all the certificates in a pollbook, or because of failure of any other act making up the returns that is not essential to determine for whom the votes were cast.
(4) If during a canvass the board finds an error in a precinct or precincts affecting the accuracy of vote totals, the board immediately may petition for a recount of the votes cast in the precinct or precincts, as provided in 13-16-201, or for an inspection of ballots, as provided in 13-16-420."

If they find any errors during the canvassing going on now, they may call a recount.
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wakeme2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:04 AM
Response to Original message
1. Yesssssss
:bounce: :party: :bounce: :party: :bounce: :party: :bounce: :party: :bounce: :party:
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Window Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Oh, hell yeah!
.
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originalpckelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:05 AM
Original message
YEP! Unless there are votes which appear during the official...
canvas, and the 1% of precincts outstanding don't go for Burns, Jon Tester has won!!!
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Kikosexy2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #1
45. Burn...baby...
burn...Let the Motha'f*#ka' Burns!!burn!!!...TESTER RULES!!
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
3. CNN just said that absentee votes
can change this to Burns.
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:15 AM
Response to Reply #3
11. Tester was peaking when most absentee ballots were mailed in!
Just a recollection that Tester said a canvass of early absentee ballots before the election was favorable?
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #11
24. Great news n/t
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Theres-a Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
4. WooDamnHOO!
PEACE!
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
5. Hell YES!
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nytemare Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
6. YAYYYYYY
:hi:
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Anarcho-Socialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:07 AM
Response to Original message
7. Sweeeeeeet!
:woohoo:
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cnlst8 Donating Member (195 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:10 AM
Response to Original message
8. today provisional ballot will be determine too, generally they go for Dem.
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DoYouEverWonder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:11 AM
Response to Original message
9. OMG
We did it!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:
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matcom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:11 AM
Response to Original message
10. WOOOOOHOOOOOOOO
if VIRGINIA goes for us ......

FUCK YOU JOE LIEBERMAN!!!

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Theres-a Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:15 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. I second that!
Fuck you Joe.
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confludemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 10:06 AM
Response to Reply #10
35. unfortunately he is gonna get whatever he wants-needed for D caucus
that's politics
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Boston Critic Donating Member (606 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 10:44 AM
Response to Reply #10
42. What are you talking about?
We'd still need Lieberman to make it to 51... much as I hate to say it.
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Glenda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:15 AM
Response to Original message
13. thanks for a great start to my work day
:woohoo!
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EvolveOrConvolve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:27 AM
Response to Reply #13
25. The start to your work day???
Some of us have been up all night wringing our hands and gnashing our teeth waiting for this result. I take the Wednesday after election day off every two years, and I give my employees the day off (even though some of them are Republicans).
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Oeditpus Rex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #25
29. Good on ya
But please don't criticize those who don't have such options.

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bunny planet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:15 AM
Response to Original message
14. Absofreakinglutely
AWESOME.



Even Agent Mike is doing the happy dance.
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originalpckelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:18 AM
Response to Reply #14
17. I think we might just win the Senate if Webb pulls it off in VA...
WOOFUCKINHOO!!!
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originalpckelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:16 AM
Response to Original message
15. Tester anticipates declaring victory soon...
The election results are going to be coming to an end soon!!! GO JON GO!!!

Now on MSNBC!
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cnlst8 Donating Member (195 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
16. More vote are in. Tester increase lead to ~1700
CNN

Tester 194,914 49%
Burns 193,179 48%
99% precinct in.
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originalpckelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:19 AM
Response to Reply #16
19. Yep, Jon Tester was just on MSNBC, anticipate declaring victory...
soon. Hopefully, that crooked son of a bitch Burns will just give up.
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nonconformist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
18. CNN numbers (update)
Edited on Wed Nov-08-06 09:19 AM by nonconformist
Tester - 194,914 49%

Burns - 193,179 48%

99% reporting.
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originalpckelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:24 AM
Response to Reply #18
23. I did the math on those numbers...they are even slightly better!!!
Edited on Wed Nov-08-06 09:27 AM by originalpckelly
It still looks to be beyond recount margin, in fact it is slightly better than the numbers I just reported!

margin of victory is now: .004356

was for my earlier numbers: .0039911

We are doing better, the lead is widening slightly!
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:19 AM
Response to Original message
20. Yes!
:thumbsup:
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Vidar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:23 AM
Response to Original message
21. Spectacular.
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in_cog_ni_to Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:24 AM
Response to Original message
22. OMG!!! This is awesome, awesome news!
I am so proud of the American people today. They have restored my faith in the human race!

WTG TESTER!!!!!:bounce:
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originalpckelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:27 AM
Response to Reply #22
26. If Webb keeps his lead in VA, then we have the SENATE!!!!!
TSUNAMI!!!
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pnwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:28 AM
Response to Original message
27. But what about this part of the law:
"1) A recount must be conducted if:

SNIP

(f) if a canvassing board petitions for a recount as provided in 13-15-403."

What does that mean?


And have all the absentee and provisional ballots been counted?

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ps1074 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:31 AM
Response to Original message
28. 21,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted
That's what Burn's camp says. They won't concede any time soon. Read it at Hotline.
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Bob Loblaw Donating Member (159 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:35 AM
Response to Original message
30. Cautiously optimistic...
Since when did the Republicans let state law get in their way?
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #30
50. Hi Bob Loblaw!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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Bob Loblaw Donating Member (159 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #50
53. Thanks.
Glad to be here.
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originalpckelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:39 AM
Response to Original message
31. We'll have to wait for those absentees.
Edited on Wed Nov-08-06 09:43 AM by originalpckelly
I need to find how they went in prior years, if people heavily Bush voted in them, Tester may end up losing :cry:

Here are some figures of absentee ballots, they do not account for counted or uncounted ones, but just raw numbers of ballots:
Butte-Silver Bow: Clerk and Recorder Mary McMahon said her office had issued 4,283 absentee ballots as of Friday, already topping the 4,208 issued through the entire 2004 presidential election. She figures the total this year will top 5,000.

Cascade: Slightly more than 10,000 voters have requested absentee ballots, which is a record, an election official said.

Flathead: As of Friday, 7,869 people had sought absentee ballots or slightly fewer than the total in 2004, said an election office employee, Judy Stack. She said election officials project that at least 9,000 people will seek absentee ballots.

The Flathead County Election Department has been staying open Saturdays from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. to deal with the volume of business, Stack said.

Gallatin: Through Wednesday, the county had issued 8,234 absentee ballots, Clerk and Recorder Shelley Vance said. She said most of the requests have come by mail.

Lewis and Clark: Clerk and Recorder Paulette DeHart said her office had issued about 6,400 absentee ballots by Friday afternoon. She's confident the county will meet or eclipse its record of about 7,800 early ballots in 2004. Up to 20 percent of the active voters may vote this way, she said.

Missoula: As of Friday afternoon, more than 14,000 people had sought early ballots to top the previous record of about 11,800 in 2004, Clerk and Recorder Vickie Zeier said. She's predicting that total will jump to 20,000 voters, or about one-third of the total active voters.

Yellowstone: As of Friday afternoon, Election Administrator Duane Winslow's office had issued 18,957 absentee ballots. Winslow is expecting an additional 3,000 more during the final week. In some precincts, he said, half of the voters have cast their ballots absentee.
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txindy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:40 AM
Response to Original message
32. This is funny.
The majority of men in Montana voted for Burns and the majority of women voted for Tester.

And women ARE the majority in Montana.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/MT/S/01/epolls.0.html

Great job, ladies! Way to vote for TRUE values! :patriot: :applause: :patriot:
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Deep13 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
33. Jesus, we won.
With the razor thin victories in MT and VA, we have the one-seat majority. Holy shit.
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powergirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 09:57 AM
Response to Original message
34. THANK YOU FOR THIS REPORT
I am so keyed up, I don't know if I can make it into work. I'm from Texas - so for now, I'm helpless - for now. :toast:
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 10:14 AM
Response to Original message
36. Heres my 'analysis': According to CNN the only county
to not have counted any of its votes (everyone else has 100% counted) is Meagher county, wikipedia gives it a population of 1932. Assuming half of them voted 100% republican, our vote lead goes from 1735 to 769. We still win.
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originalpckelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 10:15 AM
Response to Reply #36
37. Jon Tester wins even with this!!! This county provided 698 votes for Bush in 2004...
Edited on Wed Nov-08-06 10:18 AM by originalpckelly
Tester has had a much larger lead in these counties which went for Bush.

From my earlier calculations, Burns would have to gain 900 odd votes to put it into a recount, he will only at maximum get 698 votes from this county. It won't be giving Burns that many votes!

If no other counties have votes, JON TESTER HAS WON THE SENATE!!!!!!!!

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Raiden Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 10:22 AM
Response to Original message
38. The Dems are back in Washington with a vengeance!!!
:party: :toast: :bounce: :headbang: :patriot:

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SIMPLYB1980 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
39. Yay!
Way to God Dems!!!
:toast:
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sillyphoenix Donating Member (136 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 10:27 AM
Response to Original message
40. THERE'S OUR MAJORITY
Albeit a caucused one... but if (God willing... You listening up there?) we win Virginia, we achieve TOTAL PWNAGE :D
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nam78_two Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 10:42 AM
Response to Original message
41. YEEEEEEHAAAAW
IN YOUR FACE RETHUGS!
:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

We take back VA as well and we have the Senate and the House and we WILL retake the Senate I am confident......

As I said before:
YEEEEEEEEEEEEHAWWWWWW

Its all over Rethugs-all over!
:nopity: :nopity: :nopity:
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IWantAChange Donating Member (974 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 11:07 AM
Response to Original message
43. 'Senator' Tester ..... declare and put the Repugs on notice there's a
whole bunch of new sheriff's in town and they are DEMOCRATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I can hear all those Repug sphincters tightening up ...........(Cheney and Rumsfeld the BIGGEST)

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 11:16 AM
Response to Original message
44. What! Woo hoo!
Edited on Wed Nov-08-06 11:23 AM by Gregorian
Amazing!

I'm freaking out over herre! With three hour of frinking sleep!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



I was so prepared to be... forget it. YEEHAW.

I am officially going to burn a HUGE bonfire. Pictures at 11.


Edit- I better temper this until the results are official. BUT, WOOHOO! :)
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Treclo Donating Member (137 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 12:03 PM
Response to Original message
46. I will keep my fingers crossed.
Since we lost the big races over here in Idaho, it's wonderful to see our neighbor (hopefully!!!!) kick out that idiot and welcome in Tester. Let's hope this one comes out for our side!
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Historic NY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 12:05 PM
Response to Original message
47. He should seize it immediately before the Rethugs get other
ideas. The longer he waits the more that can go wrong. I would in the very least recommend a press release indicating his intentnions say at 2 pm this date. Montana in not going to have thousand of absentee ballots unless of course they are being made as we write this.
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Don_1967 Donating Member (231 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 12:13 PM
Response to Original message
48. Just one more to go Va. you are next!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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originalpckelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 12:41 PM
Response to Original message
49. Chuck Schumer has come out with the same math I have, WE WON!!
It is highly unlikely Burns will gain because we did so well in absentee.

GOTV was Burns only hope, well you don't GOTV with an absentee ballot so we are on par with him there. On top of that provisional ballots usually go for us as well.

And the one precinct not reporting gave Bush only 698 votes in 2004, and Burns needs 969 votes to trigger a recount. But Burns probably won't get the 698 votes Bush did because Tester is stronger all across Montana, than Kerry ever was.
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racaulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 12:52 PM
Response to Original message
51. Per CNN, Tester's lead has increased!
As of 12:33pm EST with 99% of precincts voting:

198,032 - Tester (D)
194,904 - Burns (R)
10,303 - Jones (L)
403,239 - Total votes

Tester's margin over Burns: 3,128 votes
Percentage of entire vote: 0.776%

There's no way that Burns will get that margin below 0.25%. No way.

Game over. Montana is ours!

:bounce: :applause:

Link: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/MT/S/01/
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aggiesal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
52. With 99.9% of the Precincts reporting ...
Edited on Wed Nov-08-06 12:58 PM by aggiesal
It looks like it has tightened up.
Tester - 196,032 49.1%
Burns - 194,904 48.3%

Diff / Total = Margin

1,128 / 390,936 = 0.00289

Automatic Recount is at 1/4 (25%) of 1% or 0.0025

Right now it is 28.9% of 1% or 0.00289

Let's hope it doesn't close even more.

If my math is incorrect, please let me know.

This was taken from the NY Times site (http://www.nytimes.com/ref/elections/2006/Senate.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1163007960-CaO4L+50yhkXLLAEnjqEKQ)

The CNN site looks to be more up-to-date.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/MT/S/01/
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longship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-08-06 04:17 PM
Response to Original message
54. The canvass cannot flip that many votes.
The canvass checks for errors like transposed digits, miscounting, uncounted ballots, etc. These random errors will mostly average out. It's called the law of large numbers. The largest practical change expected by such a thing is a few hundred at best. Not nearly enough to give Burns any comfort.
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