We have NEVER seen this kind of number before (Cook Polling) >>>

[troublemaker]

Even if you live to be 120 you will probably NEVER see numbers like this again. Democrats always lag in likely voter models. To just pull even is a big deal for us.

What we see here is a NINE POINT ADVANTAGE toward Democrats between Cook's likely voter model versus registered voters. (26 point advantage total) This result defies every political rule of thumb. Six months ago no pollster or pundit would have believed this even possible. This is indeed an historic election.


Oct 26-29

Bush Job Approval (.Registered Voters) App 41 Disapp 53
Bush Job Approval (Most Likely Voters) App 38 Disapp 58


Cong. Generic Ballot (.Registered Voters) Dem 52 . Rep 39
Cong. Generic Ballot (Most Likely Voters) Dem 61 . Rep 35


Results from the October 26-29 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, with party breakdown (October 30, 2006)

http://www.cookpolitical.com/poll/default.php

[bullimiami]

1. wont it be an even bigger surprise when mysteriously those numbers flip flop?

[dchill]

3. Yes it will...

and it appears that Hardball's Chris Matthews is kind of expecting just that: he's posting a number to call for anyone who sees anything suspicious at their polling place.

[KoKo]

10. Anyone know where exactly that number connects to, though? n/t

[GreenTea]

11. Video the Vote - videothevote.org

www.videothevote.org

[dchill]

12. Thanks...

I couldn't recall it.

[Robbien]

2. I can understand this completely

Here in Illinois we have crooked Blagojevich (a Dem). If local candidates were not on the ballot, I wouldn't bother going in to vote.

[hedgehog]

7. I don't know anything about Blagojevich, but in my experience

Democrats help themselves to petty cash while Republicans sell out the country. Rostenkowski (the powerful Ways and Means Chairman - always have to add that phrase!) was thrown out for exchanging stamps for cash and having an aide muck out his stables. Republicans have killed universal health for the insurance companies, used Iraq to funnel money to Halliburton, stood by while oil companies make record profits, curt taxes on the absolutely wealthiest people in the country etc. etc. I'll take Rosty any day.

[dchill]

13. Robin Hood (D) ...

for President!

[bluestateguy]

4. I wonder how they calculate likely voters

HOnestly, does anyone know?

[Robbien]

5. They ask

During the questioning the person is asked if they voted in the last election, if they answer yes they are labeled "likely voter".

[troublemaker]

6. Things like knowing where your voting place is, voting in previous election and

your own estimation of your enthusiasm and how likely you are to vote. Strength of partisan identification... all sorts of stuff. (Every pollster has their own Likley voter model.)

[Norquist Nemesis]

14. There lists available that show voting history

When I canvassed for Kerry in 2004, we had lists by district showing registered Democrats. The (D) showed up depending on how they voted in the primary. The list showed us whether the person voted back to 2000 primaries.

The history shows the indication of how likely they are to vote. Also, voting in a primary increases the 'likeliness' that a voter will shows up for the general.

[CoffeeCat]

8. Registered voters vs. Likely voters....

Within the pool of "Registered Voters"--you have a large number of disenfranchised, ticked off Republicans. Fundies
feel betrayed and they are disillousioned by the Foley scandal. They gave Junior their souls in the last two elections.
Some are sitting this one out, and some are just not as motivated as they were in 2000 and 2004. That will definitely
translate into sagging turn-out for the Republicans. In addition, A large contingent of Reagan Conservatives are fed up
to their necks with BushCo. They are through with him, and many aren't excited about voting to perpetuate the BushCo machine.

Conversely--in the pool of "Likely Voters", Dems have a great deal of emotion and motivation this time--that the Republicans
are lacking. There are more Dems in the "Likely Voter" category this time around. Many have woken up and they realize what's
at stake--while many Republicans--specifically "the base" have soured on Junior.

I predict that the confluence of these factors on both sides will yield amazing results for Dems.

Another thing I've noticed, is that polls are trending toward Dems--as the election draws nearer. As more people pay attention
to politics and the elections--the numbers are favoring Dems, not Republicans. I've seen this trend in most House/Senate
races.

The Republicans are so completely toast. I don't care how they try to steal it this time, or what Karl Rove's goofy math
tells him. It's going to be a blow out.

[KoKo]

9. Ha....looking at those numbers it's easier to understand the Kerry bashing

and why it's gone on so long. Also the Media Turn Back to Repug Hard Edge coverage.

Scared shitless that Machines won't be able to overcome the outrage.

[RiverStone]

15. Well worth sharing. Thanks. Damn, its gonna be sweet!

[troublemaker]

16. I forgot to note that these numbers are a 12 point surge from the Sept polling

Oct. 26-29- D 61 R 35
Oct. 19-22- D 57 R 35
Oct. 5-8- D 50 R 41
Sept. 27-30- D 51 R 35
Sept. 21-24- D 49 R 41

http://www.cookpolitical.com/poll/default.php

[troublemaker]

17. Cook is on MSNBC now n/t