AZ Senate: Pederson tightening race + 2 AZ House seats.

[longship]

Many put this race out of reach for Dems, however my pol insiders in AZ are saying that things are souring for Repukes in the great desert state and that Pederson is increasingly getting good mention amongst voters. A recent (9/11) internal Dem poll seems to bear this out with Pederson pulling up.

Kyl 47 / Pederson 41.

The fact that Kyl is below 50 and on the downslide, albeit a slow one, has the Dems increasingly optimistic. (Caveat: these internal polls tend to have wide error bars.)

Here's the only citation I've found about the poll:
AZ page at Election Predictions site

This site now rates J.D. Hayworth's House seat (AZ-5) as a "weak hold" which means that this seat is competitive. It also means that opponent Dem. Harry Mitchell may be able to kick that mealy-mouthed Repuke out of the House.
Go Harry, Go!

Note also that Repuke Randy Graf is in trouble in AZ-5 with Dem. Gabrielle Giffords running ahead at this time.

[Erika]

1. Sounds optimistic. Very n/t

[Ignacio Upton]

2. I'll wait until an independent poll comes out

n/t.

[longship]

3. What makes you think that the polls are going to be accurate this time?

Things are really screwy politically and I do not think that the pollsters are measuring opinion very well these days. There are a damned many people out of reach (cell phones) and I don't think that the pollsters are self-checking by knocking on doors anymore. I firmly believe that a lot of what's happening is below the radar. And people are very, very pissed at ChimpCo and especially at the rubberstamp Repuke Congress. They are going to pay in spades for this in November.

Anyway, polls are more useful when you don't take them as golden. I cite them, but I don't trust them too much as far as accuracy. However, if a poll has a race close, it's probably fairly true. But I do not put any credance in claims for accuracy.

[longship]

4. Thursday kick.

Posted late night.