Water temperatures in Ernesto's path

[William769]

FORT MYERS: Below is a map showing water temperatures in the Straits of Florida, the area directly between Tropical Storm Ernesto and landfall in Florida, which is expected late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

While the mountainous Cuban terrain weakened Ernesto, the extremely warm water in the strait could allow it to quickly regenerate.

http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=8596&z=3&p=

[ThomWV]

1. As A Weather Watcher Let Me Comment

I have always found weather fascinating, I pay attention to it, I understand a little bit about how it works.

The straights of Florida simply don't offer a large enough body of water to give a storm much growth unless it stops forward movement. They grow if they wonder to the west because they hit the really hot water of the gulf and get to stay long enough to grow. They grow a bit if they wonder to the east and hit the Gulf Stream waters and follow them all the way to Hatteras. But if all they get is the two hundred miles of water between Cuba and Miami and aim straight up the peninsula, then they don't grow so much.

[William769]

2. Also don't forget, all of south Florida is one big swamp.

Water temp in the 90's

[thereismore]

3. that's because the effective "size" of a hurricane is so much more than

the eye.

[DoYouEverWonder]

4. Not much is going to happen

between FL and Cuba.

We don't need alarmist crap because when a real one comes people will stop paying attention.

[William769]

5. Alarmist crap?

Comments like that get people hurt.

ON EDIT: CHANGE OF THOUGHT.

[Jacobin]

6. I think what he means is

that this storm is not going to have enough time over open water to develope much and that while precautions need to be taken, and care taken, we don't need to do a 'run for your lives!' reaction. That should be saved for a storm with a Cat 3 or higher rating.

If we react inappropriately to small systems and then they do little damage, then some might not react appropriately when a serious storm is threatening.

I've lived on the coast of Louisiana for 50 plus years. I've watched people, especially newcomers ignore larger storms because they easily rode out small storms, or they evacuated for a storm and it turned a different direction at the last minute.

Anyway, some balance on judging these things is a good idea.

[William769]

8. I agree but they are unpredictable.

Hurricane Charley was just south of Marco Island as a category 1, it slammed into us at a category 4. Marco Island is less that 100 miles from us.

ON EDIT: spelling.

[Jacobin]

11. You're right about that

I was in a duck blind at 5:30 in the morning last September when I got a call on my cell phone that there was an immediate evacuation order in effect. When I'd last looked at the predictions for Rita the evening before it was supposed to hit 200 miles away.

We evacuated and it did enormous damage to my home town.

[DoYouEverWonder]

14. Ernesto coming ashore now

Highest winds expected 45 mph.

(I've lived in FL for 30 years - I've watched storms for a long time. There was no danger of this one suddenly gaining strength between here and Cuba).

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

7. Will the hurricane get an automatic visa? -nt

[nosillies]

9. Once it has one foot on dry land in FL it gets to stay forever if it wants

[ThomWV]

10. Beware Of The "Chicken Little" Syndrome

This is not the one, this is just a very nasty storm. South Florida has seen dozens of these with no loss of life and little more than patio screens lost and some very small local flooding.

[Kickoutthejams23]

12. Not likely.

Our thunderstorms down here often resemble a Cat one storm. They will close schools but businesses and stores will stay open.

[soothsayer]

13. Ernesto will be a non event. Look at his sat pics---he's just a big

fuzzy disorganized raincloud that blows like he's got emphysema. He just can't get it together after traveling soooo far. Poor weather watchers and hurricane hunters are going to be mighty disappointed. The overreaction to this big nothing will lull folks into a false sense of security next time a REAL one comes along. But hey, ratings, right?

[hedgehog]

15. I'm guessing this guy may do real damage when he gets to

West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. Depending how fast he moves and how much rain he's still packing, flash floods could be a serious problem in some of those mountain valleys.