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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:20 AM
Original message
Allow me, if you please, to freak you out...
It is easy enough to hold the violence unfolding in the Middle East at arm's length if you are an American, especially if you are an American whose knowledge of the vast complexities of the situation comes from the television news. It is easy enough to hold it all at arm's length because, goodness knows, you've heard enough about Mideast violence already over the last several years.

It may even be something of a relief to have all this unfold, because it has managed to drown out coverage of the daily drumbeat of Iraq carnage. If you are an American with a media-trained short attention span, you might even be able to pretend, for a while anyway, that the Iraq thing isn't really that important anymore. If it was important, they'd be covering it, right?

Besides, you're safe. The Bush administration has spent an enormous amount of time and energy convincing you that you're covered, that they've got your back, that they are all about the defense of the homeland. Nothing else has been blown up over here since 9/11, so they must be doing something right. And besides, violence between Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah is so totally 80's, anyway.

Let's roll one version of the tape to the end.

The military build-up on the border between Israel and Lebanon is ostensibly aimed at Hezbollah guerillas, but it isn't too long of a drive between that build-up and the Syrian border. If enough people get nervous on either side, or if Syria decides to flex its muscles on behalf of its proxy fighters in Lebanon, or if Israel decides to strike the root instead of the stalk, then all of a sudden we have a firefight between two serious powers.

Syria and Iran signed a mutual defense pact not so long ago, which means fighting one is tantamount to fighting both. This isn't terribly daunting to the Israeli military, because there are not many combinations of military powers in the region that can challenge their conventional warfare might.

The fight starts for real, and the first thing Israel does is establish control of the air. The Israeli air force chews up the Syrian and Iranian air forces at speed, and then begins to attack basic infrastructure: power grids, fuel depots, bridges, communications centers, anti-aircraft batteries and any troop or armor concentrations it comes across in the process.

Stage two, once air dominance is established, will be Israel attacking and destroying any and all troop, armor and artillery forces deployed by Syria and Iran. They will do this to great effect, and follow it up with their own troops and armor. Syria and Iran will find themselves, very rapidly, almost entirely outmatched.

But Syria and Iran are not entirely without fangs. Iran's batteries of Sunburst missiles are unleashed from their mountainous shoreline overlooking the Persian Gulf, and a number of heavy American warships are hit and sunk, because the Sunburst has the capability of defeating Aegis radar systems. Iran likewise has the ability to, overnight, bring their fight against Israel to the American soldiers in Iraq. Iran's Shiite allies all across Iraq introduce a whole new front in that struggle.

Somewhere in this, the oil spigot in Iran is either disrupted or deliberately shut off. The global economy rocks and rolls. China, whose multi-billion dollar oil deals with Iran provides their economy a desperately needed infusion, feels the shortage severely. An ominous possibility arises, only darkly muttered previously because the ramifications are too dire to contemplate. That possibility, simply, is China's ability, with their vast holdings of American debt, to annihilate the American economy with five simple words: "We want our money back." At a minimum, China becomes a major player in the situation.

As if this were not bad enough, Syria is pressed into a corner by Israel's effective attacks. The Syrian leadership realizes Israel isn't simply pushing them, punishing them or attempting to bomb them to the negotiating table. Israel is out for blood and intends to topple the Syrian government. Syria's commanders, facing extinction, break the seal on the final option: their stockpile of chemical weaponry. Gas bombs are used against Israeli troops, and explode within Israel's borders.

And we're off to the races.

Israel, erupting with rage, turns Syria and Iran into glass. An explosion of rage envelops the Middle East, and even the Arab governments who chastised Hezbollah are forced to choose between opposing Israel or being themselves toppled by the swell. The eruption is most acute in Pakistan, whose hard-core fundamentalists are umbilically and spiritually tied to their Taliban neighbors in Afghanistan.

Pervez Musharraf is faced with a sudden revolution, both from his population and from within the ranks of his Taliban-friendly military. His government is toppled, and all of a sudden, a nuclear power has been overthrown by Islamic extremists. The American military unit in Pakistan, whose sole purpose is to secure and remove that nations' nuclear arsenal in the event of revolt, loses the race to get hold of the weapons.

India reacts with unutterable terror, as does China and Russia and every other neighbor in the immediate region. Worse, the ultimate nightmare has become real. There are, all of a sudden, loose nukes walking the Earth.

If this last Pakistani bit seems too farfetched, someone should let the editors of the Los Angeles Times know. The following appeared in the Opinion section of their Sunday edition: "Al Qaeda has had Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in its sights for years, and the organization finally gets its man. Pakistan descends into chaos as militants roam the streets and the army struggles to restore order. India decides to exploit the vacuum and punish the Kashmir-based militants it blames for the recent Mumbai railway bombings. Meanwhile, U.S. special operations forces sent to secure Pakistani nuclear facilities face off against an angry mob."

Meanwhile, back in America, terror strikes begin to take place all across the country. It was, after all, the violence between Israel, Palestine and Lebanon back in the 1980's that inspired men like Ramsi Yousef to attack the World Trade Center in the first place. The government is powerless to stop these attacks, because anti-terror funding has been redirected to bean festivals in Indiana instead of major capitols and seats of infrastructure, and because the first-warning intelligence services have been savaged in an ideological purge.

"Red Alert" is announced. Martial law is declared, posse comitatus and habeas corpus are suspended, and the Constitution of the United States is indefinitely put on the shelf. Elections are cancelled, and a sense of permanent emergency is impressed upon a cowed and unprepared populace by a pliant news media.

Sleep tight.
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:24 AM
Original message
thanks for the bedtime story
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Erika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:24 AM
Response to Original message
1. And W is crowned King forever
Yeah, the bushbots would buy into this without question. They want to be protected. The sheeple.
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:28 AM
Response to Original message
2. I truly hope you are delusional, Will, but as usual, a
great, good, and necessary read.
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az chela Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:47 AM
Response to Reply #2
14. Lets hope he has had one beer too many
I am depressed enough already
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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:52 AM
Response to Reply #2
16. nope -- he's Will -- I'm delusional -- very big grin
I'm delusional to have believed all my life that I lived in a democracy and that my vote counted.

I hope to get the hell out of Dodge before the crap starts hitting the fan.
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Freedom_from_Chains Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:32 AM
Response to Reply #16
53. I hope to get the hell out of Dodge before the crap starts hitting the fan
I'd start packing now if I were you.
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Ghost in the Machine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:29 AM
Response to Original message
3. regarding the "bean festival in indiana".. and others...
I live 10 miles west of the Sweetwater Flea Market... 8 miles further west of me is Watts Bar Dam and Nuclear Plant. I've been wondering for about the last week if maybe these silly little places they name for terrorist activity might just be a coverup for more strategic locations around the area. It would be interesting to find out what other types of operations are within a 20 - 30 mile radius from the named points. Other Nuclear Plants? Munitions Plants? Power Plants?

Someone with better research abilities than me could probably shed a little light on this...
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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:37 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. A little background
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zanne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:43 AM
Response to Reply #7
64. Sounds like a great story line...
for Movie of the Week, but you're stretching a bit.
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madeline_con Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:17 AM
Response to Reply #3
18. I think you're on to something.
the "Apple and Pork Festival" is in Dewitt County, Ill, home of the Clinton nuclear power plant.

I believe you're absolutely right!
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Ghost in the Machine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:26 PM
Response to Reply #18
125. thanks for the info...
I wrote it down, may take some time this coming week to do a little more digging on the matter.
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madeline_con Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #125
141. I've got you covered...
Check out the "Homeland Code Talkers" thread in General Discussion.
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Marie26 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 06:21 PM
Response to Reply #3
113. Great theory!
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 06:25 PM by Marie26
I think you're right about that. Remember the "Old McDonald petting zoo" everyone was making fun of? It was listed as a possible target, for some unknown reasons. The zoo's owner was mystified & said she'd never received a threat, or any notification from DHS about this. The petting zoo is located in Jackson County, AL, outside of Scottsboro. http://www.al.com/news/huntsvilletimes/index.ssf?/base/... Guess what else is located there? A consortium of different energy companies is building a new nuclear plant, the first built in the US in thirty years, in Jackson County, AL, outside the city of Scottsboro. http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/sep2005/2005-09-23-01.a... Maybe there's a method to DHS's madness after all.
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Ghost in the Machine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #113
127. a method to the DHS's madness...
I think I'm going to dig a little deeper into this, but I wonder... could the Jackbooted Thugs somehow consider this a breach of national security? Exposing targets? I'm skeered, I don't like the big black SUV's coming around!

Then again, in a tinfoil hat kind of way, could it be a sinister plot by the GOPranos to reveal target locations to the terrorists? Think about it.... terrorists see this list and think "WTF!?!?!" ... then they do a little research for themselves... "oh look, Ahmed... 20 miles from the flea market is a nuclear plant! We're so smart! HA! DEATH TO THE INFIDELS!"
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Emit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:31 AM
Response to Original message
4. Oh, gee, er, uhm, thanks Will.
As if I didn't already have a hard enough time sleeping these nights.

And now I'm doubly freaked out because my 6-year-old who just had her tonsils out is up every two hours telling me she thinks something bad is going to happen. I'm attributing it to her pain and discomfort, the recent surgery, her pain meds...

And then I read this.
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lostnfound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:32 AM
Response to Reply #4
23. My 5 yr old son told me today..
"I'm going to die when I turn 6"
and whenever I ask him what he wants to be when he grows up he says "nothing".

It always creeps me out.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:37 AM
Response to Reply #23
25. Why the hell would your son say that!? n/t
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lostnfound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:46 AM
Response to Reply #25
33. I don't KNOW. It freaked me out..
but kids say things sometimes just for a reaction. I hope that's all it was.

Very scary.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:03 AM
Response to Reply #33
44. Sometimes "growing up" takes on the meaning "going away
from me" and it scares the kids to think about it.

:shrug:
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readmoreoften Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:42 AM
Response to Reply #23
28. whoa.
wow. I hope your son is:

(1) not predicting the end of the world
(2) not suffering from depression at such a young age

hopefully he's just playing with you, right?
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lostnfound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:49 AM
Response to Reply #28
38. You must have kids to know, that maybe he's just 'playing with me'
That's what I'm hoping, anyway. But it's so unnerving.

He doesn't seem depressed..he's having a great summer actually, we've been playing together alot -- he just learned to swim, hitting tennis balls, took him to see Garfield yesterday.
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readmoreoften Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:54 AM
Response to Reply #38
41. Good maybe he's just getting a rise out of you.
One time we had pinkish toilet paper and I noticed that if I wetted it against my skin, it looked like I had leprosy. So I put some bubbles on my skin and ran to my mother and said, "mom...oh...no...I have leprosy" and she completely freaked out. I loved it. I was a morbid kid.

I think that children do this to their parents to get reaffirmation on how much they are loved. If they say, "you know, I'm going to die tomorrow", the parent will show how horrified they are by the idea of their death and affirm how important they are in the world.

Glad he's okay :hi:
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Nay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:18 AM
Response to Reply #38
60. Hmmm. I don't know, Lostnfound; 5 seems pretty young to say
stuff like that. Does he have an 8-yr-old goth friend or something? Just saying. I have a (grown-up) child and even when he was a teenager, he didn't say stuff like that. I would keep my ears attuned for any more, just in case it wasn't a one-time thing said to scare the parents. Don't want to alarm you, but. . .
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lostnfound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 01:05 PM
Response to Reply #60
88. No, no such friends
he's in a sheltered world of a small age 3-5 class and spends the rest of his time with me.
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #23
70. Thank goodness. He's normal!
LOL! If I had a dollar for every 4-6 year old who freaked out their parents by saying something similar I'd be a wealthy woman. I think my son was about 4 and a half when he announced he was going to die when he turned 10. Now that he's 9 and a half he refuses to believe he ever said such a thing.

That's a classic age to explore the meaning of death and gauge adult reactions to the concept. I've found that boys tend to verbalize it more than girls. I wonder why.

Those are shocking statements...from an adult perspective. We've got experiential baggage that influences are perception. The kids definitely don't mean what the adults insert into the exchange.
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vickitulsa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:11 PM
Response to Reply #70
103. "The kids definitely don't mean what the adults insert into the exchange."
True, but as to whether a child's comments might indeed indicate a state of mind we should be concerned about, well, that's another and somewhat separate issue. IMO, it all depends on the child and the circumstances of his or her life, what s/he might be overhearing these days in adult conversations around him/her or on television, and so on.

I'm not surprised that this subthread got some serious attention. The last fulltime job I held before my disability forced my retirement was for a "managed care management" company in Dallas. Putting it as briefly as I can, what that sort of corporation does is hire a bunch of office types, the usual, plus a psychiatrist or two, a half-dozen psychiatric nurses with many years of experience, and of course, a support staff. Then their clients (such as Prudential and other huge insurance operations) hire that company to do all the evaluations of claims of their customers who have bought policies providing them (or so they thought) with psychiatric care if and when needed.

Well ... of course our main purpose was to make our customers, the big insurance ops, happy by helping them save money. So what they really wanted from us was to find technically legitimate and legally defensible ways to DENY CLAIMS to their customers!

We had a "hotline" which was a number given out to all the customers who'd bought the insurance and which these psychiatric nurses manned. At least two of the nurses had to be on call 24/7 for suicide/homicide threat calls, and all six of them stayed very busy (read "overworked") during "regular business hours" with calls of every type, extreme and not-so-extreme.

Once the insurance customers filed their claims as they sought treatment for themselves or their family members, it was up to our staff to turn over every stone we could to evaluate the situation and give our client the ammo they needed to deny the claims. Or in a small percentage of cases to honor them.

I was an executive secretary in the support staff but was actually working mostly for the top exec in our regional office; and because I had a psych major background, lots of experience in the field, and could also take shorthand and type 130wpm, I was assigned the job of taking minutes at committee meetings. The scariest and most stressful task of the many I performed on a regular basis was taking minutes at the "High Risk Committee" meetings which were held once a week. These were attended by the staff psychiatrist and the nurses who weren't left to man the hotline, plus exec types and at least one "observer" from our client list of the big insurance companies.

What we did in those meetings would scare the pants off of anyone who believed they had purchased protection in the event they had a psychiatric problem serious enough to require treatment -- often emergency treatment. Mainly we had to justify the denial of initial claims or the termination of claims that had been approved for payment for a time, so that our clients would be legally protected if, say, someone whose claim was denied subsequently committed suicide or killed someone else!

I tell this to alert people here but also to respond to the posts in this subthread. Because in my two years at this company before the stress and disgust caused me to resign and move back to Tulsa, we had many cases for which I typed up denial letters that simply drove ME nearly insane with outrage!

ONE of those cases was a nine-year-old boy whose parents had discovered a suicide note in his room, and they were very concerned about whether it might be possible that he was actually serious about it. After much evaluation by our staff, it was determined that this young boy was intellectually gifted, had been depressed for at least three years already (major depression, multiple episodes), and was quite calmly serious about his planned suicide. He exhibited all the indicators: he had the ideation (thoughts of suicide), the plan, and he had obtained the means to carry out his plan -- all even though he was only nine f'ing years old!

This was one case that was NOT denied. Probably only because it would have been legally indefensible to do so, but at least the child received treatment. I have no way of knowing how it turned out for him, of course, but I've never stopped thinking about him. I READ HIS SUICIDE LETTER, and it was so chilling I just shivered as I typed this, remembering my initial reaction.

So without pretending I can "counsel" anyone here about their children's scary comments, I just wanted to give this "sample alert" from real life. If a kid has suicidal ideation -- mentions it, asks about it, seems to be feeling really down and talks about doing it or about friends who have done it or considered it with them -- that's a reason to pay attention. If you discover a child has a PLAN -- could be expressed in scribblings on school notebooks or overheard when s/he is talking with visiting friends -- you can believe s/he is getting serious about it.

And the third, critically worrying thing, if a kid gathers the "tools" or equipment or drugs that would enable him or her to actually follow through on a plan, then intervention is necessary to prevent a death or at least a devastating attempt. Noticing that a particular upcoming date seems to be extremely important to such a child would be a four-alarm flash meriting an immediate hotline call or a trip to an emergency room without delay.

I don't wish to scare anyone needlessly, obviously! Actually, I'm just trying to do the opposite -- to ease some worries that scary comments made by a very young child might cause. The comments might indicate suicidal ideation, but nothing more alarming than that. It would still be a good idea not to ignore such statements, I would think, but I doubt a child would go from exploratory comments about suicide to making an attempt instantly.

(It might also be important for people to be aware that, contrary to popular belief and for either children or adults, repeated statements about suicide or threatening suicide ought NOT to be treated as inconsequential. Rather, it's been shown that those who threaten suicide repeatedly do very often end up attempting it, not the opposite as some think.)

Anyone here at DU who is an actual shrink and who can confirm or correct my commentary is very welcome to do so! I don't usually give out "advice" in a venue like this for sure, but I view it simply as information; and the original post in this subthread concerned me enough for me to at least try to offer some (hopefully) helpful input. If what I've said is NOT helpful, then just discard it! :)

I was going to respond after reading Will's OP by saying "thanks for the nightmare material," but I see others have done that in abundance, so I'm offering this instead.


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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 07:20 PM
Response to Reply #103
120. Please note your example is of a 9 year old with a suicide note.
The developmental difference between a 5 year old and a 9 year old in terms of understanding death and the consequences is vast.
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vickitulsa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 08:28 AM
Response to Reply #120
139. Absolutely correct.
I repeated his age to make it clear I was not saying a five- or six-year-old might go that far or even had that capability. This child was barely nine, but he was NINE, not five or six. HUGE difference!

But it was also disturbing that the investigators determined he had been experiencing major depression episodes for at least three years. Many people are unaware that some medicos are now prescribing anti-depressants -- which have been tested ONLY ON ADULTS, btw, and in very limited clinical trials often performed ONLY by the Big Pharm companies -- to children as young as eight or nine. Hundreds of thousands of adolescents and teens are on the drugs.

I'm sure this off-label use has saved some lives and eased a lot of suffering for some individuals. But I'm also very concerned that the adverse side effects many people have, particularly to the SSRI class of anti-depressants, can be devastating and result in deaths.

My primary intent was simply to offer some information based on real life experiences for whatever it is worth. I've seen way too many parents and others caring fulltime for young children simply ignore serious warning signs in those kids. Being alert and caring enough to pay attention if indicators do appear is what's important, IMO.

Never meant to overstep my bounds or imply that a five- or six-year-old might have the capabilities that nine-year-old did. Thanks for pointing that out!

I sure hope parents are taking some care to do what they can during these times of constant frightening news of war and fears of widening war to shelter young children from the impact of such information. The young ones cannot distinguish between what is nearby danger and what is faraway danger not likely to affect them. I well remember the anxiety-producing impact the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 had on me when I was 13....


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Emit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 06:37 PM
Response to Reply #23
116. I have a 5 year-old son, too
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 06:39 PM by Emit
(my daughter will turn 7 next month) and he, too, says some pretty interesting things about death and asks a lot of questions about dying.

Once when he was very young said, "Grandma's gonna be really sorry she smoked that white stick in the garage..." (My mom's a smoker and when she visits she smokes outside or in the garage). From a small child's perspective, that's pretty prescient given that we don't have many discussions in our family with the little ones yet about how bad smoking is for you, or how it kills and all.

He's also made comments about going to war to fight Bush...that's freaky but I attribute that to my activism in politics and the fact that he was with me a lot in '04 at protests and stuff.

Anyway, I think the interest in death is pretty normal at their age. I mean, you should see all the little kids in the neighborhood when they discover a dead bird or lizard! It's when they say things like this out of the blue that gets me -- like they're picking up on vibes we adults can't sense or something. Or maybe I'm just reading more into it than need be.
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 12:53 AM
Response to Reply #23
135. You guys are freaking me out...
My five year old daughter told me the other day that she will be in heaven
very soon. I tried to keep it light and I said, "Oh honey, you will be on
Earth for a long time." She again told me that no, she wouldn't be here for
a long time. CRIKEY!

Furthermore, a few months ago--I had a nightmare so vivid--that it felt like a
flashback. I could see planes flying over and bombing our town. I saw a nuclear
bomb being dropped and I tried to run home to my kids--knowing I would not make it.
I woke up a bit discombobulated and my 6-year old daughter comes into my room upset,
"Mommy I just had a dream that everything caught on fire and the dinosaurs came back."

Yikes! (((Twilight Zone Music))) :scared:
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vickitulsa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #135
140. WOW! Amazing experience ... and discombobulating to be sure!
I've had a couple of those myself, and so did my mom back during WWII. My dad was wounded in Italy, struck by shrapnel in his tank turret when a German .88 hit them and killed the other two guys in the turret. His hair and uniform were on fire and the ammo inside the turret was "cooking off," and he barely got out alive. Rolled down the side of the tank into an irrigation ditch beside the road, which put the fire out. But he looked like hell and when he ran back toward his own guys, they nearly shot him because they couldn't recognize him as one of their own!

The military notified family members when a soldier was wounded back then via telegrams, but what was so eerie was this:

On the very day when Dad was hit in Italy, my mom was staying with her sister and caring for her polio-stricken baby; and Mom sat bolt upright on the couch and said suddenly, out of the blue, "Myron's been wounded!"

She even sensed that it was not a life-threatening injury and that he would recover, which totally amazes me. Mom is a very practical, down-to-earth woman who never indicated she believed in any sort of psychic phenomena -- even after that experience.

But then the government's telegrams to Mom to inform her of Dad's injury in combat got mixed up. The one notifying her of the initial event didn't arrive first. But a few weeks after she had that experience of "knowing" he had been wounded, she received the telegram from the government telling her Dad was RECOVERING from his wounds....

Later she got the first telegram from them.


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Stardust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 01:41 AM
Response to Reply #23
136. My son premonitioned (word?) that he would die when he turned 23--
thankfully 23 years came and went over ten years ago. And he's the most joy-filled person I know. Not a doom and gloom kind of kid at all. I empathise with you as it is scary when your child is so sure, but I'm trying to reassure you that they aren't always right about their demise. It does sound like your son might be depressed, though. And I recognize that from personal experience. That hopeless feeling about the future sounds serious to me. Therapy might be something to consider. There's no way to know if therapy would have ameliorated my battles with depression but I'd give anything to have had the opportunity to find out.
I don't pray but I do hope you find strength to weather this out with your son. And that his life will someday bubble with hope and dreams.
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renate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 02:33 AM
Response to Reply #23
138. my daughter did that once
She said with absolute certainty "I will die tomorrow."

I kept her home from daycare and we didn't leave the house all day. I understand how deeply that kind of talk can affect a parent, and when they say that kind of thing in a not-joking way it is EXTREMELY alarming. In nursing homes the staff generally take those statements seriously, too--I've seen staff members make phone calls saying "Your mother said such-and-such and although she seems to be perfectly fine we thought you ought to know that sometimes a resident knows something we don't..." Obviously there's a difference between a 5-year-old and an 85-year-old when it comes to predicting one's demise, but premonitions are sometimes real.

And of course sometimes they aren't. If my daughter's time had come it would have come whether we stayed home or not. But I don't regret taking her feelings seriously, and I can definitely see why your son's statement creeps you out.
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Hissyspit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:31 AM
Response to Original message
5. Upheavel in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Iran is all
part of the Neocon plan, of course. And it does not bode well for the future security of the U.S. AND the World at all. The administration is making the assumption that the Republicans will continue to stay in power, they are in contol of the ballot boxes, after all, and continue to foment this upheaval. It's insane and a nightmare.
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az chela Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:37 AM
Response to Original message
6. Well this pretty well sums up the situation Will
bush and his cohorts have managed to set into motion the stage for the destruction of this planet.Any suggestions
what the hell we do now???
Since they already have the camps up and running in the US it all seems pretty hopeless
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benburch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:38 AM
Response to Original message
8. Utterly Plausible.
I wish it weren't.
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DesEtoiles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:39 AM
Response to Original message
9. this diary also will freak you out the same way:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/5/12/231715/792
...
...


Thunder

When the day finally arrives, we will watch round-the-clock coverage on television as the first wave of US attacks begin to hit Iranian targets. We will see maps on the screen with names of places like Esfahan and Natanz. We will see Donald Rumsfeld and General Peter Pace, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stand at a podium in the Pentagon describing target packages and bomb damage assessments. We might hear the Secretary and the General say that, contrary to "wild speculation" prior to the start of hostilities, nuclear weapons are not being used. They will no doubt strongly caution the Iranians against any form of retaliation for the US offensive. We will see the President of the United States deliver a solemn speech to the nation and ask support for our brave men and women in uniform. We will see reporters deliver with gravity and that strange fetishistic tone the stories of cruise missiles impacting and sorties flown and senior officials cautiously optimistic. The same players, the same script, the same antiseptic ritual. The same pornographic fascination with shock and awe. Iran's air force and air defenses have been devastated, the blow-dried hair on the TV screen will say. Every known Iranian nuclear research or manufacturing area has been hit. Iranian naval bases and hundreds of suspected ballistic missile sites have been struck. Iranian command and control centers have been destroyed. Al Jazeera will broadcast images of massive explosions on the outskirts of Tehran, lighting up the night sky. Behind the scenes, the journalists and the talking heads will say, the administration is jubilant. Operation Ponderous Code Name Here is a success. Iran's capacity to retaliate has been degraded, the resolve of its leadership shaken.

And then, at some point, will come the first reports of Iranian retaliation. After that, history falls into the abyss, like matter sucked beyond the event horizon of a black hole. Once it passes the threshold, no one can really say what happens next. We're in the realm of imagination. And nightmares.

But here is one attempt to imagine what it will be like. In one possible or probable future, you and I, all of us, are watching it happen right now, right before our eyes. Out there, in the weeks and months to come, we watch things fall apart.

- - - -

Lightning

Day two of the war. Accounts from the Gulf tell of Iranian Shahab and Scud ballistic missiles striking ports, refineries, and oil fields in Saudi Arabia. The US assault, massive and unrelenting though it was, couldn't get all of Iran's missiles. Nothing in war goes precisely according to plan. First reports say the Iranian missiles aren't all that accurate, the damage to Saudi facilities is minimal. Everything is under control. Iranian patrol boats manned by the Revolutionary Guard have tried suicide runs at oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. US naval vessels and air cover slaughter them at will. Most of the rest of Iran's small navy was destroyed in port on the first day of the war.

The American onslaught still appears to be going well. White House sources hint the US will soon issue an ultimatum to the Iranians: accept a cease-fire and new international inspections of nuclear facilities, or face continuing US attacks. GOP operatives gloat that the White House has regained the political initiative. The price of oil on world markets rises to "only" $80 by the end of the second day. Analysts call this a blessing, brought on by the White House decision to release a flood of oil from the US strategic petroleum reserve.


World oil markets explode, as reports of the shipping disruptions and the firestorm at Ras Tanura drive prices to $110 per barrel. Oil industry officials put on a show of optimism, saying that the spike is temporary. They assert that search and rescue missions under US air and naval cover will clear the burning oil tankers from the Hormuz Straits and keep the shipping lanes open. Emergency procedures are supposedly in place to rapidly repair the damage at Ras Tanura and get the refinery back on line. In the United States, gasoline prices top $5.00 per gallon.

- - - -

Cataclysm

Day four. In Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr calls upon all Iraqi Shiites to wage immediate, all out war against United States occupation forces. His al-Mahdi Army and other Shiite militias attack US troops in Baghdad and across southern Iraq. In the first day of fighting, more than 100 American soldiers are killed, by mines, improvised explosives, mortars, rocket propelled grenades, and truck bombs, as well as in house-to-house firefights with Shia guerrillas. Oil pipelines in southern Iraq are blown up in multiple places.

Meanwhile, US forces in Kuwait successfully foil a truck bomb attack on the massive Burgan oil field.

Pentagon briefers report progress in the ongoing US campaign to suppress Iranian missile capabilities. The nuclear facilities are an afterthought now.

Oil prices reach $130 per barrel. Gasoline prices in the United States approach $6.00 per gallon. In cities across the country, workers begin to organize mass car-pooling efforts to keep up the daily commute. Employers warn darkly of layoffs if gas prices continue to rise.

US air and missile attacks against hundreds of targets throughout Iran continue. Talk of a pause for damage assessment has stopped.

Day five.

In Lebanon, the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia opens a vengeance campaign against Israel in retaliation for the American bombing of Iran. Launched from southern Lebanon, a massive barrage of short range surface to surface missiles strike cities and towns across Israel, as far south as Haifa, killing dozens, wounding hundreds, and bringing normal civilian life in Israel to a standstill. Having already ordered a general military mobilization in the hours preceding the first American attacks on Iran, the Israeli cabinet decides to retaliate only against Lebanese targets for the time being. But the Israelis secretly send messages to Tehran, warning that further attacks will bring direct Israeli retaliation against Iran, and Syria as well. The Israeli counter-strike against Hezbollah is massive, unleashing a pulverizing wave of indiscriminate air and missile attacks all across the hills and valleys of southern Lebanon. Hundreds of civilians are believed killed. By dawn of the next day, Israeli armored columns roll across the border and drive north, toward Beirut.

In Iraq, US supply lines on the roads from Kuwait suffer sustained attack by Shiite insurgents. Mortar bombardment of airfields hamper American transport planes. US Central Command simply doesn't have enough troops to provide the necessary security in the face of a widespread Shiite uprising. American forces in Baghdad withdraw to a concentrated defense perimeter linking the airport to the heavily fortified Green Zone, housing the ministries of the fictitious Iraqi government.

Emergency crews trying to fight the massive Ras Tanura fire in Saudi Arabia are attacked by guerrillas wielding rocket launchers and automatic weapons. It isn't clear whether the attackers are Iranian paramilitary forces or indigenous Saudi insurgents aligned with Al Qaeda.

Shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf has come to a complete halt. Oil tankers in the Gulf remain in port. Inbound shipping stops dead in its tracks in the Arabian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, awaiting word that the security situation has stabilized.

The armed forces of the United States continue to hammer suspected Iranian missile sites and Revolutionary Guard barracks, along with government ministries and military command centers. Nevertheless, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivers an incendiary speech to his nation, calling on Muslims across the world to attack American troops, facilities, businesses, and citizens wherever they may be found. Al Jazaeera transmits the speech throughout the Muslim world. American media show just enough of the speech to make Ahmadinejad look like a Muslim Hitler.

Anti-American demonstrations that erupted in every Muslim country on the outbreak of war now swell to overwhelming dimensions. In Cairo, Damascus, and Islamabad, millions march in the streets. US embassies in most Muslim countries have been evacuated, and several of them have now been occupied and pillaged by enraged demonstrators. In Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, Muslim demonstrations against the United States explode into riots. Cars burn in the night and tear gas drifts through the streets. In Riyadh and Islamabad, government security forces open fire on demonstrators, killing and wounding scores of people.

In the Persian Gulf, the guided missile destroyer USS Decatur is struck by an Iranian Sunburn supersonic cruise missile. An inferno quickly engulfs the ship, dooming efforts to save it. Rescue forces manage to evacuate most of the crew before the vessel sinks, but more than 100 men and women descend with its hulk to the bottom.

In the United States, news media cover the sinking of the Decatur with outrage and horror. Despite growing unease over gas prices, polls show a solid majority of the American people support the Bush administration's decision to launch what is rapidly becoming a region-wide war in the Middle East.

The price of gasoline at the pump now exceeds $6.00, with oil prices soaring past $160 a barrel on world markets. The US government's decision to allow an unlimited flow of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve hasn't made any difference. The Ras Tanura fire has crippled Saudi Arabia's oil output, possibly for months. Oil shipments from Iran have stopped. All shipping traffic in and out of the Persian Gulf has halted, with no sign that either Iran or the United States is willing to bring hostilities to an end. More than forty percent of the world's oil supply has been cut off. News reports speak of panic among oil company executives, of desperate meetings with the President and the Vice-President, imploring them to do something. Anything.

Since the war began, the leaders of the Democratic Party have issued formulaic statements in support of American troops, along with wishes for a swift, successful end to US military operations against Iran. Some of those with Presidential ambitions in 2008 go so far as to say the President's decision to seek a final solution to the threat of Iran's nuclear program was correct. Some other Democrats call for emergency legislation enacting price controls on gasoline and other critical goods. Contrary to some op-ed pieces and speeches before the war, no prominent Democratic or Republican politician questions the Constitutional authority of President Bush to launch a unilateral war against Iran. Behind closed doors, White House officials have been briefing Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders, showing intelligence reports on the massive extent of the damage inflicted on Iran by US attacks. Other intelligence assessments speak of possible dissent within the Iranian military establishment - something the President and his advisers firmly believe foreshadows a coup or a popular uprising against the Ahmadinejad government and the ruling mullahs of Iran. These administration briefings fail to mention dissenting opinions within the intelligence community, much of which feels that factional fighting among Iranian elites is outweighed by the determination of each faction to inflict a devastating military and economic defeat on the United States.

- - - -

Apocalypse

Day six.

Oil prices approach $180 per barrel on world markets. Major losses on world stock markets have accelerated into a freefall. The Dow Jones has lost 4000 points since the war began. The slide of the US dollar, underway since the start of hostilities, is also beginning to pick up steam, threatening to become a collapse.

Gasoline prices in the United States have reached $8.00 per gallon in some areas, despite optimistic statements from President Bush that energy disruptions will be temporary. Long lines continue at gas stations. Schools and businesses are beginning to close or run on reduced hours. Employees are having more and more trouble getting to work. Shipments of critical goods and supplies are drying up as gasoline prices begin to hamper the trucking industry. And now, for the first time, reports come in of panic buying at supermarkets around the country. What had been temporary open spaces on shelves, thanks to trucking delays, have now sparked a mass run on food. Transportation bottlenecks, and the explosion of costs in petroleum derivates used for manufacturing, have ignited an inflationary explosion in consumer goods across the board.

And then, late in the morning, cable news broadcasts flash the first reports of terrorist attacks inside the United States. At 11:00 a.m. local time, in Phoenix, Arizona, an unknown number of gunmen open fire with automatic weapons and grenades on crowds of shoppers in the Paradise Valley shopping mall. Minutes later, reports come in of rocket-propelled grenades fired at traffic along widely scattered sections of Interstate 44 in Missouri. As TV images show police and SWAT teams deploying along I-44 and surrounding the Paradise Valley mall, eyewitnesses report two jumbo jets exploding in the skies over Chicago's O'Hare International Airport, the apparent victims of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. For the second time in American history, the Federal Aviation administration orders all civilian air traffic in the United States grounded. Television networks in the United States give the attacks wall-to-wall coverage, virtually ignoring the escalating world energy crisis and the ongoing war in the Middle East. As the day goes on, rumors fly of additional attacks or planned attacks. Workers leave their jobs by the millions. Schools, businesses, and government agencies begin to shut down. Traffic clogs the nation's highways as the mass exodus gets underway. And it gets worse. In Atlanta, snipers with high-powered rifles open fire on motorists stranded in their cars. The gunmen continue to fire as terrified citizens flee their vehicles. Late in the afternoon two suicide bombers detonate home made explosives at restaurants in Dallas and Pittsburgh. The final toll from the day's attacks is 673 people dead. Experts speculate that the attacks were carried out by members of the Iranian secret service, long known to exceed Al Qaeda in their levels of training and their capacity to carry out terrorist strikes. None of the operations of this day came anywhere close to 9/11 in their sophistication or spectacle, but the net effect was, if anything, far worse. Multiple soft targets in the heartland of America have been attacked with impunity. The American public gets the message: no one is safe.

By the end of the day, world oil prices pass $200 per barrel. Governments around the planet order all financial markets closed amidst a monetary and economic implosion unprecedented in history.

The war continues. US Central Command maintains round the clock bombardment of Iranian targets. Israeli forces drive deeper into Lebanon amidst sporadic Hezbollah missile strikes on Israeli cities. An Iranian Shahab missile strikes the northern end of Saudi Arabia's Ghawar oil field, inflicting heavy damage on a number of drilling rigs. Saudi security forces fight pitched battles with Iranian paramilitary forces and pro-Al Qaeda insurgents in dozens of locations around the kingdom. The Saudi Foreign Minister denies rumors that members of the royal family are evacuating the country.

An Iranian Sunburn missile strikes a second American naval vessel, the guided missile cruiser USS Lake Champlain. Sixty-eight US personnel are killed but the ship remains afloat.

A column of US Marines rolls north from Kuwait, attempting to keep supply lines open to besieged American forces in Nasiriyah, Najaf, Baghdad, and elsewhere. Meanwhile, American satellite surveillance picks up evidence of Iranian armor and infantry formations moving across the Iraqi border. By morning, they engage advance elements of US occupation forces already hard pressed by Shiite militias.

Massive anti-American demonstrations now range far beyond the Muslim world, encircling the entire planet.

- - - -

Judgment

After midnight, in Washington DC, the President uncharacteristically holds a late-night emergency meeting of the National Security Council to deal with the unfolding catastrophes. Everyone at the table, the architects of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, agree that the current conflict has to be brought to an end as quickly as possible and emergency measures taken to halt the incipient collapse of the national economy. The Vice President, in particular, forcefully states his vision of what's at stake. The United States, he says, now confronts not just an emergency but an existential threat unparalleled in its history. Social order itself verges on complete breakdown, with the delivery of food, fuel, and essential services throughout the country now open to question. The nation's military forces face the prospect of a long, bloody conflict while the world economy stands on the brink of disintegration. The regimes in Moscow and Beijing are watching for signs of American weakness. Reports in world capitals speak of possible Russian and Chinese arms shipments to the Iranians even as they engage US forces in combat. There are even rumors that the Russian army might deploy anti-aircraft batteries to Iranian soil, manned by Russian soldiers. Prior to the closure of world financial markets, the government of China had already begun dumping American bonds. The US government, the Vice-President concludes, must take extraordinary measures if the situation is to be salvaged and the country's future secured.

Everyone in the room agrees. At this crucial meeting, later to be studied extensively by historians, the broad outlines of future American policy are determined. At its conclusion, the President signs a series of sweeping national security decision directives that will alter American government and society for all time. First, he authorizes the initiation of offensive nuclear operations against the military forces and national command authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Within twelve hours, US nuclear warheads will strike scores of Iranian military and government targets. Prior to the nuclear attacks, top US government officials will evacuate Washington DC and carry out their responsibilities from secure and undisclosed locations. US Strategic Command will go on a full war footing to dissuade other nation-states from reacting rashly to the American obliteration of Iran. The NSC directives signed by President Bush and vetted by the Attorney General go on to detail emergency economic and security authority to be exercised by the Executive Office of the President. The White House, operating through the executive branch apparatus, will assume complete control of the national economy, prioritizing the distribution of personnel and resources to assure restoration of essential services. All National Guard units on American soil will be federalized immediately and deployed for emergency security operations. US military forces will begin domestic security operations and they will assist in the operation of crucial industries such as transportation. The FBI will execute nationwide arrests of all individuals named in watch lists as actual or potential terrorist suspects. Special detention facilities will be set up for processing and interrogation. The Federal Communications Commission will assume direct supervisory authority of all television, radio, newspaper, and Internet media services. All publicly disseminated information will be subjected to mandatory national security review. Members of Congress and the Supreme Court will be consulted retroactively and invited to approve the administration's measures by appropriate legislation or legal judgments. But the administration will leave no doubt that it intends to act, with or without the approval of the other two branches of government or of the states. Key leaders of the Democratic Party will be summoned to the Oval Office and invited to give their support to the President. They will be strongly cautioned against failure to support the Commander-in-Chief in a period when the existence of the nation is in doubt.

Dawn comes to the United States. Day seven. The former things are passed away.
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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:44 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. Someone once said
that America is only three missed meals away from total chaos.

Thanks for the read.
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Phrogman Donating Member (940 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:38 AM
Response to Reply #9
54. Something like this is probably going to happen, thats why I left the US.
Sorry to say...

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SupplyConcerns Donating Member (305 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #54
77. lucky bastard
I'm still in college, but I'm probably leaving once I've graduated.
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havocmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #77
112. Where y'all goin? Hate to point out. corporatistshave pretty well taken
over all governments of (former) nations that had and strategic pull. It's a rich man's world and no matter where ya go, you will be beholden to corporate lords.

Water is already more than gas. Think about that.
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Phrogman Donating Member (940 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 07:05 PM
Response to Reply #112
119. The Visayas Islands Baby!
Worlds best kept secret!
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HysteryDiagnosis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:09 AM
Response to Reply #9
59. Well..... alrighty then, this is saved and ready to print for my
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 08:10 AM by 4MoronicYears
RW America does no wrong father 'n law. And thanks for the uplifting read. Now where are my bible and rapture clothes.
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IDemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 09:02 AM
Response to Reply #9
67. Holy sh*t
All entirely plausible, except that I would think rioting and looting may become a bigger direct threat within America's borders with food disappearing off the shelves...
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IDemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 09:59 AM
Response to Reply #9
73. The prelude to the above is worth the read:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/5/12/231715/792

Prelude

I'm a 38-year old man. I work in a dumb, pointless job in a nowhere town and I have no influence or special insight about what goes on in the world. Once upon a time, when I was younger and more ambitious, I was a graduate student specializing in US foreign policy at a big name university. In my spare time I worked for a few big name think tanks and government agencies, researching and consulting. I gave up that life after a while, because I couldn't handle the stress of life among the power elite. But somehow I never gave up the habit of following politics in America and events in the world America was trying so hard to shape. The greatest drama of our lives unfolding every day. The future turning into history, right before our eyes. How could you not want to watch it happen?

In all those years, the story has been a long descent into madness, gathering force and momentum like a storm. You could see things coming unraveled in the world at large, in our society and our system of government. There used to be a certain kind of stability to the old establishment and the world it made. There was the Cold War and the bland, cautious domestic politics that went along with it - except for that business in the Sixties. That time when it looked like the United States might finally become a progressive society at last, committed to living out the true meaning of its creed. But that all ended in blood and things went back to the muddling through that we all thought of as drama, as the playing out of great events. Hostages in Iran, the Reagan Revolution, Iran-Contra, the Berlin Wall coming down, the boy from Hope moving into the White House, the long boom of the Nineties, the Contract with America and the stain on the dress. We thought of it all as meaningful and momentous, a nation trying to find its way. We couldn't help but think so, really.

There are long periods in life that seem significant at the time but are really just ordinary. Routine. Then something happens to make us realize what a momentous event really looks like. A marriage disintegrates. A loved one dies. Everything seems different. Maybe you see it coming before it happens but there's a kind of surrealism to those last days before the event itself. You can't believe the time will really come when the thing you've imagined is a reality. When the marriage is over and you're alone in the dark on a long weekend night. When someone you loved is gone and all the spaces where they used to be lie empty and quiet. You never imagined the time would really come. The time when the great upheaval lay in the past and a future you never really thought about stretched into whatever length of years you might have left.

- - - -

Portents

I can't help but think that the reckoning for our country is finally almost here. Soon it won't be a dimly imagined nightmare. It will be real and we will all have to live in it. We will have to make our way in a world like the one most of humanity lives in every day. Where things have fallen apart and having even the basic necessities of life for the briefest of time is a miracle beyond price.

We can find glimpses of what it will be like. I know someone who once served as an aid worker in Nigeria. The family she stayed with ate rice and yams every single day. Once a month they went to the market and bought a chicken that they couldn't really afford, just to break the goddamned monotony of the yams and the rice. They lived with rolling blackouts and intermittent running water that was dirty when it managed to sputter out of the pipes. They envied people who had a beat up piece of shit car not fit for a junkyard in the fabled faraway land of Brittany Spears and Tom Cruise. They lived with malaria and hunger and the gangsters with guns who called themselves politicians and bureaucrats and ran the whole country like a racket, sucking away money and dignity and life. At the hospital where my friend worked, when a dialysis machine or some other rickety piece of junk broke down, the patient died and the doctors just shrugged. What are you going to do, they would say? We could try to get it fixed, but what would be the point?

Ever since the election of 2000, the life we've known in the land of the free has been unraveling, slowly devolving into the wretched, ramshackle misery that once happened to other countries but never to us. Things that would have seemed unimaginable just keep happening. My God, how can we keep track of it all? A war of aggression in Iraq and a bloody occupation amidst secret and not-so-secret wars without end fought with stupidity unrivaled. KGB-style domestic spying operations. Torture and indefinite detention without charges. Graft and corruption on a gargantuan scale in government and business: looted pensions, hookers in the Watergate, elections manipulated, no-bid contracts and massive overcharging, it all runs together like muck. Laws written to funnel billions to drug companies, energy companies, credit card companies, how many more. The deliberate wrecking of national finances and the unbridled accumulation of public and private debt. A whole city drowned, its population condemned to exile so that the state will remain rock solid Republican. Partisan zealots installed throughout the court system and on the highest court of all. Orwellian legal doctrines allowing Presidential rule by limitless decree. A political party converted to a missionary organization for an apocalyptic blood cult of Rapture and ruin. Scientific research systematically squashed and distorted by End Times fanatics. The growing evidence ignored and mocked of a burning, flooding planet and a collapsing biosphere and the promise that our grandchildren will live in hell. And always the lies. An endless, vile, stinking cesspool of lies. And a media that dutifully transmits them, and a national opposition party run by cowards and hacks, that lets the lies go on and on and on and on and will do anything to stop it except fight.

And now, very possibly within the next seven weeks, the extremists who run the government of the United States are planning, in defiance of all informed advice and political logic and rational judgment and moral sense and basic sanity, to launch a massive military offensive against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The onslaught might even, as Seymour Hersh reports, use nuclear weapons. Out there in the electronic noosphere you can find any number of sober, well argued essays on the disasters that will likely ensue after any such attack, nuclear or otherwise. The sober policy wonk writings foretell Iran unleashing its Shiite militias and its ground forces to slaughter American soldiers in Iraq. They tell of Iranian missiles and guerrillas striking Saudi oil fields and Persian Gulf shipping and Israeli cities. They tell of oil prices soaring to levels that will rip the global economy to pieces and bring sixty years of post-1945 American affluence to a crushing, agonizing halt. They tell of Iranian terrorists murdering people on American soil.

For more than five years, things that nobody imagined and never should have happened have kept on happening anyway. Can anyone doubt that the people responsible really are preparing to commit this one, supreme act of insanity? Can anyone doubt that the reckless, fearful little man in the Oval Office, driven by personal demons and the voice of a vengeful God to seek redemption in a cause larger than himself, fully intends to pursue the course he believes will secure his place in history and in the favor of heaven?

When I think in those terms of what's unfolding now, of warships sailing toward a rendezvous with infamy in the Persian Gulf, of bleary-eyed officers in Pentagon chambers drawing up the target lists and the deployment orders, then I think that we're coming to the last days of a world soon to pass. Everything has been leading up to this. For everything we've ever known, for the creature comforts and the old styles of politics and the rhythms of daily life, this is the end.

- - - -
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mcscajun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #9
94. Possible? Yes. Plausible? Doubtful. In just a week? Not likely.
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 01:57 PM by mcscajun
We wouldn't get off that easy. If such a scenario unfolded, it would be weeks of chaos, not days. By the time order (or some semblance of it) was restored, much would be destroyed, including our sanity. Hell, if BushCo as it is constituted right now were "In charge" (and I use that term Very Loosely), it could be Months of chaos before anything near order returned. Katrina Cubed.
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MazeRat7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:42 AM
Response to Original message
10. So ? An asteroid could slam into the earth an annihilate us all....
Whats your point other than speculation about one of many probable outcomes ? That being said, I do understand speculation and the power it holds for most. I also understand it for what it is... speculation.

MZr7
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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:45 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. Perfect reaction
"So?"

Jesus.
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MazeRat7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:46 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. Yes it was "perfect". Thank-you. *grin.
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readmoreoften Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:28 AM
Response to Reply #13
20. Because there is a 1 in 80,000 chance of earth being hit by an asteroid
and a MUCH better chance of a scenario like Will's. You can't think that SOMETHING isn't going to happen. All the teams are amassing. All the players are set to take the field. The crowds are cheering. Who's going to cancel the game?

We want Israel to go to war with Syria and Iran. It is in the PNAC playbook, published online for all America to see. We are in debt to China, China is dependent on Iran's oil. Pakistan is a time bomb with a nuclear bomb. We are living in a state with unopposed stolen elections.

It could go down differently. For example, the US may bomb Iran and Syria instead of Israel. China may not want to pull the plug entirely. Latin America could throw a curve ball. But the trajectory off all these scenarios are still the same. It may take six months. It may take five years. But it will happen if a peace is not brokered.

And who will broker the peace? The UN? Kofi Annan? Europe? John Bolton?! What possibility is there for deescalation? I think that 9 out of 10 scenarios will be disastrous for the US. And the 10th is a long shot.

So there's a difference between fretting over a 1 in 80,000 chance and a 9 out of 10.
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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:49 AM
Response to Original message
15. Following violence to a logical conclusion of increasing violence
all of your bed time story could happen.

LIHOP -- MIHOP.

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havocmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 06:22 PM
Response to Reply #15
114. While we indulge in LIHOP/MIHOP possibilities
Think back to an election campaign - in Israel. Sharon went to the Temple Mount. THAT set off a lot of dominos. It was provocation and some with agendas damned well knew it.

Before anybody calls me names and such, I have long leaned pro-Israeli. But Likud... NO. It is JUST as possible to be pro-Israel yet against their current leadership as it is to be pro-America and againts ITS current leadership. The vile agendas currently being worked do not adhere to national bounderies or ethnic lines.

Sharon/Bush campaigned about the same time... It was not for a better world.
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madeline_con Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:05 AM
Response to Original message
17. And we get our 2nd King George. Oh, goody. n/t
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dipsydoodle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:41 AM
Response to Reply #17
27. If you use that analogy
then hopefully you'll also remember the ultimate outcome of that as well. :)
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:05 AM
Response to Reply #27
46. Yeah, McDonalds. Why the heck are you smiling?
:)
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dipsydoodle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:12 AM
Response to Reply #46
48. Loosing George III
by virtue of the War of Indepenence puts you were you are now - hence the smile.

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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:14 AM
Response to Reply #48
49. But think of everything we gave up. Belonging to the people
who brought you Shakespeare and bedrooms and Monty Python.

Okay, now I'm REALLY on the list.

lol
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madeline_con Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #27
85. Indeed! Point taken. n/t
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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:26 AM
Response to Original message
19. all though my original scenario isn't being followed exactly
it's close enough...for horseshoes and hand grenades

I've posted many times about Israel/Iran. My original scenario went like this:

Israel bombs Iran nuke plant. Iran responds with an attack on Israel. We have to invade/attack Iran to protect Israel


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readmoreoften Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:29 AM
Response to Original message
21. Proud to be rec 5 /nt
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readmoreoften Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:31 AM
Response to Original message
22. Bush will not be appointed dictator, though. He is expendible.
Watch Cheney, Rove, and a New Frontman emerge. Bush is nothing. Sometimes I think we are fools for spending so much energy on him.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:39 AM
Response to Reply #22
26. That's right. The New Frontman. Who is it? Jeb?
It doesn't matter, does it?
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Horse with no Name Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #26
80. We won't need a front man at this point
The entire ugly underbelly will be exposed at this point and no need to hide the agenda from the sheeple. Pandora's box will be opened.
I can't say who will be at the helm of the ugliness, but it will be a man that is much smarter than boy king or his jester brother.
Karl Rove wouldn't be farfetched...
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femrap Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:04 PM
Response to Reply #22
123. maybe he'll be martyred? nt
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:33 AM
Response to Original message
24. Pakistan isn't a stretch. At all. I don't understand why
Musharraf has made it this long -- he must have been born very lucky. His body guards must be the best paid beef on Earth.

This is a small planet. Out here in the California tsunami zone, we wonder when the nut case in North Korea will decide to see if his missiles really do make it to Golden Gate park. Knowing that our emergency kits are the only thing between us and New Orleans. George Bush wouldn't mind seeing our city demolished. He might even point to it as Divine Retribution to his benighted base.

I hope you've laid in some cat food.

Argh.

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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:43 AM
Response to Reply #24
29. Musharraf does not venture outside of Islamabad.
He is too vulnerable if he does not remain in his fortified positions.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:46 AM
Response to Reply #29
32. The price of his power is house arrest, I guess.
And there's no one in our government smart or able enough to have a plan for the minute after his assasination.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:49 AM
Response to Reply #32
37. I fear India will attack Pakistan out of panic if Musharraf dies
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 04:49 AM by Selatius
With Musharraf dead, that nuclear stockpile in Pakistan will no longer be under central control. India may try to eliminate them through bombing to preclude any possibility of rogue elements using it against, say, New Delhi.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:56 AM
Response to Reply #37
42. Thank God at least there are still statesmen in India.
I've never felt this way before. I've never had this experience of seeing something so so very dangerous happen in the world and not a single pulsing glia in our government to meet the situation.
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lostnfound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:44 AM
Response to Original message
30. Plausible but what seems hard to imagine is China
because annihilating the US economy will hurt them deeply as well. We are joined at the hip or the wallet.

The US is such a huge market for them; and just asking for too much "money back" would collapse the dollar.. There comes a point when the fate of debtors and the indebted are tied: A corporate example is Enron, where lenders kept lending money because they were getting partially paid in Enron stock.

The deeply-in-debt have a certain power over the debtor: if the debt is sizeable enough to have a real impact on the debtor when "written off" by the debtor, the debtor would often rather continue to carry the loan than to have the indebted become insolvent. In the case of countries, I would suspect that a collapse of the US dollar would mean that 1) the debt could be paid back in worthless dollars OR 2) China's economy would be devastated due to having so much uncollectible debt.

Great essay, though, for laying out the possibilities.
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readmoreoften Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:46 AM
Response to Reply #30
35. Yes, that's the part that seems shakiest to me.
What about if China stopped *lending*, though? Is China still lending to us? I'm sure our income doesn't match our outgo. The lender can always cut you off.
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 10:24 AM
Response to Reply #35
75. Here is a good analysis of how the US could be brought to it's
knees because of it's foreign owned debt:

The best quick analysis I've seen of the fiscal squeeze comes from New York University professor Nouriel Roubini, in his useful online survey of economic information, rgemonitor.com. He notes that with the U.S. current account deficit running at about $900 billion in 2006, "in a matter of a few years foreigners may end up owning most of the U.S. capital stocks: ports, factories, corporations, land, real estate and even our national parks." Until recently, he writes, the United States has been financing its trade deficit through debt -- namely, by selling U.S. Treasury securities to foreign central banks. That's scary enough -- as it has given big T-bill holders such as China and Saudi Arabia the ability to punish the U.S. dollar if they decide to unload their reserves.

But as Roubini says, foreigners may decide they would rather hold their dollars in equity investments than in U.S. Treasury debt. "If we continue with our current patterns of spending above our incomes, by 2013 the U.S. foreign liabilities could be as high as 75 percent of GDP and an increasing fraction of such liabilities will be in the form of equity," he explains. "So, let us stop whining about the dangers of unfriendly foreigners owning our firms and assets and get used to it."

(NOTE the following paragraph given the current world events!)

Here's how bad it is: The worst thing that could happen to the United States, paradoxically, would be for Arab and other foreign investors to take us at our xenophobic word and decide that America doesn't really want foreign investment. If they pulled out their money, U.S. financial markets would plummet in a crash that might make 1929 look like a sleigh ride.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20...



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femrap Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:14 PM
Response to Reply #35
124. Of course, if the oil spigot is turned off, so is
China's manufacturing....right? And their billions of people will no longer have jobs...and they might just get ideas like they did in 1989.

We need level heads to prevail NOW. Someone needs to step up on the international stage and tell Israel to get its ass back home and discuss prisoner exchanges.

Is this really what PNAC and the Rothschilds/Duponts/other rich folks want? Nuclear war? Has all the inbreeding of these rich families resulted in self-destructive sadism?

I think I need a drink.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:01 AM
Response to Reply #30
43. China would hurt itself, yes, but they'd come out ahead of the US
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 05:09 AM by Selatius
Since you simply can't take nations to court to collect on debts, all of this will be done in the currency exchange markets. Because nation's don't declare bankruptcy, what happens is the value of their currency plummets because faith, and thus what it can fetch in relation to other currencies, in that currency disappears or weakens considerably, which means that foreign countries and individuals would now notice that the price of goods and services in that country is now much cheaper in comparison to their indigenous currencies.

As a result, the victim country has its economy bought out and possibly dismembered as compensation to the creditors. In the 1980s, we saw a shadow of this when Japanese firms and individuals actually started buying up Manhattan real-estate and office spaces. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it's economy was essentially dismembered in fire-sale auctions that saw untold billions siphoned out of the Russian economy leaving behind a shell.

China's position is dependent upon US firms coming to China to build factories and set up offices to produce goods for an American market. The average Chinese is too poor to afford most goods in the US market, but this means that if China is forced into dumping US dollars, it will mean those American factories will shut down. It will hurt China tremendously, but there is a silver lining if China is forced into exercising it's Doom's Day plan.

The only consolation prize is the fact that those shutdown factories are dirt-cheap now as US firms are looking to liquidate "excess capacity," which is expensive to maintain. China will nationalize those factories and restart them, and they will produce goods for Chinese consumers now, not American consumers.

When is the best time to buy? You buy when there is blood running in the streets. China will take those factories from us when the time comes because we gave it to them by off-shoring manufacturing to their shores.
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daydreamer Donating Member (503 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #30
65. China will profit from any situation.
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 08:46 AM by daydreamer
They are the winners of the World Soccer Cup. They are the 2nd biggest weapon supplier to Israel now. Just imagine we have a WW3. China will supply all fighting parties. Not that they want a WW3.
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benEzra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #30
96. China doesn't look at the short term, but the long term.
Not the next quarter, or the next year, but the next generation. Remember, Sun Tzu was Chinese.

There are things more important to China than the short-term performance of their economy. Tiawan is one. Their status as a world power a hundred years from now. The maintenance of their leaders' authority.

If they look at the world situation like a chess game, and decide that it is in their long-term interest to sacrifice a few pawns in order to take out their opponent's queen and set up a checkmate, I'm sure they'd do it.
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many a good man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #30
104. China debt
Will's story is a little off because China can't just "call in" the debt. The US T-Notes that line the vaults of their central bank from floor to ceiling don't come due until the due dates written on them.

The real impact will be if China starts refusing to buy our debt. That will cause a real monetary crisis that can't be papered over with gimmickry. Interest rates will have to shoot up crunching credit and the mint will have to crank up the printing presses. The federal government will miss pay rolls. The dollar will lose much of its value, making imports more expensive, etc., etc.

Of course, the whole point is moot if the oil stops flowing.
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Cooley Hurd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:45 AM
Response to Original message
31. Your worst-case scenario is plausible, but unlikely...
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 04:45 AM by Cooley Hurd
Several elements are likely, like Pakistan's Musharraf being toppled (with Pak nukes falling into al Qaeda's hands). But I just can't see Iran & Syria risking everything by going to war with Israel and, by proxy, the US.

K&R (and one small correction: the Chinese made, Iranian anti-ship missile is called the Sunburn ;))
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acmejack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #31
58. I googled about and discovered it is also known as Sunburst
I was confused as well.
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Warren DeMontague Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:46 AM
Response to Original message
34. It's a spooky tale, no doubt, Will. And what we've got now is bad enough.
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 04:47 AM by impeachdubya
Only thing is, out of all the players you've outlined, I think only Israel and Hezbollah are the ones clearly spoiling for a real fight right now. Bush may want Iran, but I think he knows that's not happening- not with our military stretched way too thin with Iraq and Afghanistan. Not without a draft that would threaten to wake millions of Americans out of their High Fructose Corn Syrup, Jessica Simpson comas. And despite the fears of PNAC string-pulling we see so often in these parts, if he really wanted war with Iran, he wouldn't go to all this trouble of orchestrating a fight between Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas (they're perfectly capable of fighting with each other with no help from Bush) No, he'd have Karl Rove order some bogus documents written in crayon on official Fernando Poo embassy stationary to try to justify the thing. Or he'd just do it- time and again, he's proven he doesn't give a shit. The rationales for Iraq couldn't be any more phony- so why go to all the trouble to come up with one even halfway based in reality for Iran?

One has to bear in mind that for all their bluster, this administration is far more Maxwell Smart than James Bond.

I don't think Syria is terribly interested in war right now. Iran doesn't want war. Iran may want nukes (hence the Hezbollah distraction during the G8 Summit), but they don't want war. China? They're set up to own the damn planet in the next century. How many landlords burn down their own buildings?

No, call me Pollyanna, but I don't think this is WWIII.

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a la izquierda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:41 AM
Response to Reply #34
62. My sentiments exactly....
besides I do think it's pointless to give in to gloom and doom, and fearmongering. That is exactly how people like George Bush get reelected--by playing to the ultimate fears people have. Sitting around fretting isn't going to do a body any good.

And hell, the Mayan calendar doesn't end 'til 2007, so I think we're pretty safe (i.e., the planet and humanity as a whole aren't going anywhere).
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a la izquierda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:41 AM
Response to Reply #34
63. My sentiments exactly....
besides I do think it's pointless to give in to gloom and doom, and fearmongering. That is exactly how people like George Bush get reelected--by playing to the ultimate fears people have. Sitting around fretting isn't going to do a body any good.

And hell, the Mayan calendar doesn't end 'til 2007, so I think we're pretty safe (i.e., the planet and humanity as a whole aren't going anywhere).
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mcscajun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #63
90. 2012 is their 'end date', not 2007.
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 01:47 PM by mcscajun
Not that five years is much comfort if you believe it.

Of course, many believe that the "end date" refers not to the end of all things, but to the end of one Great Age and a new beginning, a Golden Age.

Tick-tock, tick-tock.
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a la izquierda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:55 PM
Response to Reply #90
107. oops--typo...
my professor would probably shoot me for that (I study the Mayas, among other things).
Man, I gotta step away from the books and go have a brewski. Thanks for fixing that though!

And, you're totally right...it's not even really an "end" date. More like the "death" of one world and the rebirth of a new one, though the Mayas are never really a group that discusses things literally.
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KT2000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:48 AM
Response to Original message
36. glad you mentioned China
I believe their hold on us is double - they own much of our debt - and they can also stop shipment of all consumer goods to the US. Those consumer goods include vital equipment needed to keep our society rolling along.
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femrap Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #36
126. like light bulbs! I buy nothing made in China
unless I am forced to. Lighters. Lamps. I've long said: if China gets pissed at us, it's going to be very dark around here.
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KT2000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-25-06 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #126
144. Yes - but
one item that comes to mind is an electrical test meter that is used to measure currents in lines etc. The best of these, the state of the art device was once made in the US but is now made in China.
They are used by anyone working with electricity including the military to keep equipment in working order.
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greguganus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:51 AM
Response to Original message
39. And what will happen....
...to K*rl R*ve?
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VOX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:53 AM
Response to Original message
40. Sounds like the PNAC boys' wettest dream...
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 04:54 AM by KrazyKat
Global conflagration, the Middle East a smoking ruin, martial law stateside. The PNAC signatories would be beside themselves with glee. :grr:
:mad: :nuke:
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Turbineguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #40
108. There comes a point
when you get on board because it's the only choice you have left. That's how it worked for Hitler.
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proud2BlibKansan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:04 AM
Response to Original message
45. Yes, Will that is a freak out
but an important one. Thanks for your words of wisdom. They are unfortunatley, very important.
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ClintonTyree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:07 AM
Response to Original message
47. Nah....nothing like this is going to happen.
Condi is on her way to the Middle East to straighten everything out. All will be happiness and light in no time. The US is expediting it's shipments of armaments to Israel as a deterrent to this scenario. All is well, citizen. :sarcasm:
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TreasonousBastard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:15 AM
Response to Original message
50. Phew! What a relief! I thought it would be worse....
what with Europe and Japan completely breaking down when the oil supplies dry up and Russia and China being the only countries with little to lose picking up all the pieces.

South America reains unscathed, with all the governments down there pissing on the US, and Africa is left completely alone, with a future no one can imagine.

India? Depends on how they get along with Russia and China.

The US? Now the least self-sufficient industrialized country on the planet, we are toast.



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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:22 AM
Response to Reply #50
51. This post reminds me of an old Bill Cosby bit on wanting a son.
Turns to his wife. "You were the last one with it, what HAPPENED?"


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Taxloss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:31 AM
Response to Original message
52. I doubt it.
It makes sense for both Israel and Syria to fight each other by proxy in Lebanon (unfortunately for the Lebanese). If Iran did choose to get involved (and that would be a choice, the mutual defence pact is really a propaganda exercise directed at others, both countries are far too pragmatic to treat it as an obligation) then the only practical support it could lend Syria is through the air - planes (which as you point out Israel would be little troubled by) and missiles, which might be nasty. Deployment of ground forces would involve them lining up in a neat row in Syria to be slaughtered by Israeli, American or NATO airpower.

Further, Israel lacks the nuclear capabilities to "turn Iran and Syria into glass". Even if it had the bombs, it wouldn't want to do it - the fallout would destroy Israel as well. The area we're talking about is really very small, with precious little clean water - you don't set off nukes willy-nilly in that space.
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niallmac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #52
84. Too close to use nukes. I hadn't thought of that.
I wonder if Israels nukes are self limited by their very nature!
So many things I haven't thought about.
I have lately thought about how much I hate being
a card carrying member of the human race though.
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Rhiannon12866 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 06:13 AM
Response to Original message
55. Thanks, Will.
This has been my fear, all along, since this current crisis began. I know that this region is a tinderbox and I have long feared that all hell could break loose and it would turn into a bonfire. I, for one, don't see this as so far fetched, since Israel has reacted with overwhelming military might against the entire population of Lebanon in their attempts to punish Hezbollah for the capture of two Israeli soldiers. If the other players in this react similarly, WWIII is inevitable, with the US, one of the few who continue to support Israel, right in the thick of it, and, consequently, fair game. The neocons will get their perpetual war, alright. And just when we thought things couldn't get any worse in this country, we're facing Armageddon. Thanks for the bedtime story. I'm having nightmares.
:scared: :nuke: :scared: :nuke: :scared: :nuke: :scared: :nuke: :scared:
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SlavesandBulldozers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 07:11 AM
Response to Original message
56. Your forgot the part about Jesus coming back.
aside from that, thanks.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 07:21 AM
Response to Original message
57. In my dream rational elements of
the US army arrested the fascist leaders in the US as the people took to the streets. The French, Germans, Russians and Chinese stopped Israel. The Dutch have been forced to build camps to house the war criminals.
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AntiFascist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #57
111. It is interesting...
that Kofi Annan made a somewhat cryptic remark to Larry King about the UN being "The Government", whose strength depends on the will of the participating governments. Also interesting is that some military leaders decide to speak out against the Bush Admin. in a time of conflict.
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Road Scholar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:37 AM
Response to Original message
61. Dayum! nt
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VelmaD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:54 AM
Response to Original message
66. Thank so much...
for putting words to my nightmares from the last week. Can we get back under that bed now? :scared:
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Tenseiga Donating Member (100 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
68. Alarmism causes more problems than what it promotes
I'm not dismissing your theory outright, but you might want to give some of the people in this a little more credit.

Russia and China are better served by standing back and doing nothing unless attacked directly... and come to think of, so is America. The Pakistani-Indian conflict could happen, but I don't see what Pakistan has to gain by attacking India... and this is the only possible way India would get involved.

If such an all-out escalation does happen, and things go nuclear, civil rights suspensions will be the least of your concerns.
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zippy890 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 09:28 AM
Response to Original message
69. "Somewhere in this, the oil spigot in Iran is either disrupted or
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 10:12 AM by zippy890
deliberately shut off..."

This is a crucial factor - when/if Iran decides to cut back on their oil. I think you are absolutely right in bringing this up as a HUGE possibility here- which could throw the global oil market into turmoil. oil/gas prices through the roof.

edited -spelling

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Joe Fields Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 09:47 AM
Response to Original message
71. It might happen in a manner similar to what you described. Then...
it just might be, I say MIGHT, that cooler heads will finally prevail, just like monkeys may fly out of my butt, and every side realize that there is absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose by kicking off events that will trigger world chaos, with the U.S. up to it's neck in acts of terror being committed on our soil.

Unfortunately, it appears that the Bush administration is more than willing to roll the dice. All we can do is pray that someone take the dice away from him, before he craps out.
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Arkham House Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
72. If this happens, and we *do* have martial law here--
--I know one thing with absolute certainty. Not that the media would go along; that can be taken for granted. No--it's that the Dem leadership would roll over. We would *never* hear a peep out of them, even when it's obvious that the "emergency" is permanent.
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 09:59 AM
Response to Original message
74. William Pitt:
Why did you put it into words. Until now it has only been a vision inside my head. Now you've let the cat out of the bag precisely as I envisioned the whole cinder box unfolding, everything but the sleeping part, and I haven't done that right for a couple of weeks now. Gee thanks William Pitt! p.s. Dirty Bastid, how is he?
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 10:27 AM
Response to Original message
76. You may be closer to the truth than any of us can admit...
We assume they are working within boundaries. They are not.
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 10:29 AM
Response to Original message
78. And THEN how much will gas cost?
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 10:30 AM by Gregorian
My god, shop til you drop might be a thing of the past.

I'd like to think that the majority of people who live on this planet would be able to keep this from happening. I could care less about the price of gas compared to the suffering of mankind.
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Martin Eden Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
79. the Faithful need not Fear
for they will be lifted up in rapture and spared the horrors on Earth
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hwmnbn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #79
92. Good riddance, I say.....
they were always holier-than-thou smug bastards anyway! :evilgrin:
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snappyturtle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 10:53 AM
Response to Original message
81. K&R The "problem" with this post......
is that the people who should be reading it, aren't.
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dave123williams Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
82. Pretty bleak outlook you have, I think.
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tblue37 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 12:05 PM
Response to Original message
83. Have you read Neville Shute's
apocalyptic novel On the Beach? In it a nuclear war that starts in the Middle East puts radioactive fallout into the atmosphere that then blows around the earth until everyone and everything dies. The last ones alive are in Australia, because that is the last place the fallout reaches.

The epigraph to the novel uses the final lines from T.S. Eliot's "The Hollow Men":
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

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Obamarama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 12:41 PM
Response to Original message
86. Right. And Rove might be indicted tomorrow, too.
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 12:41 PM by KzooDem
Oh great conjurer of...whatever it is you conjure up around here. Granted the situation is serious, but give it a rest.
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greguganus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:17 PM
Response to Reply #86
105. ...
:rofl:
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Jazz2006 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-25-06 12:49 AM
Response to Reply #86
146. If not tomorrow,
at least within 24 business hours.

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Beausoir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 12:44 PM
Response to Original message
87. Or....not.
Sorry, I don't get "freaked out" over fiction.

What is this? DU's version of The Rapture?
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FearofFutility Donating Member (764 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 01:15 PM
Response to Original message
89. crawling back under my rock
:scared: I haven't posted here in quite some time as I needed to "unplug" for awhile. :ripping plug back out of the wall:.......
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The Straight Story Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 01:45 PM
Response to Original message
91. Old news, been hearing it in the bible and Hal Lindsey for years :)
The ME will explode someday. Funny it is not going to be South America, Canada, Africa (mostly), etc and so on. The next big war will be over some damn desert where people have been at war since time began - only difference now is they have bigger and better weapons.
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mcscajun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
93. Will, you have *got* to get more sleep...
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 01:54 PM by mcscajun
...these nightmares are killer!

Glad I didn't read this last night...I've got a whole afternoon and evening to assimilate this before bedtime. :scared:

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Joanne98 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 02:02 PM
Response to Original message
95. Remember this flash game?
http://www.idleworm.com/nws/2002/11/iraq2.shtml

Play the game and find out if Will is right.
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PaganPreacher Donating Member (653 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
97. Drink less. Sleep more. Live longer and happier.
Oh, Pitt: Tom Clancy called. He demands the return of his notebook, immediately. If you use the name "Jack Ryan", he promises to sue your pants off.

You have 24 business hours to comply. :+

The Pagan Preacher
I don't turn the other cheek.





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blues90 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:18 PM
Response to Original message
98. I think you are right on here
While we sit here so distanced and all news about Iraq has suddenly vanished and this is by design , it is not by accident . People simply cannot allow themselves to forget or become distracted you must keep all the thing going on in your mind .

I do feel bush has no intention of leaving his dictator position ever . If there is a hint of this becoming possible then count on more US government terrorist attacks in the US .

If you consider all that we have lost in the public sector since 2000 and this continues to grow than what other conclusion can you come to ?

We are nothing in the eyes of this administration but expendable once we don't generate tax revenues and many of us are going right down the drain when it comes to income .

They have their stocked bunkers to run to we can all go to hell as all the rest of the globes lower class .

What I focus on when it comes to these murders is not to forget Iraq but to add the numbers of murder that seem to keep spreading and building all over the middle east . it's all rampant murder and I could care less about the religious aspect or the games these murderous governments play . i care about the people no matter where they are being killed and that's all .

Perhaps we need a few bombs dropped here to wake the hell up finally and quit thinking of it all as a movie theme somewhere way off in the distance .
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DemsRBetterLovers Donating Member (77 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:41 PM
Response to Original message
99. What role does Europe/Egypt have in all this I wonder?
Will a strong Arab influence in France finally topple its government? What will Egypt do? Can Egypt do anything? Im sure Saudi Arabia will just stand idle while oil prices sky rocket. And Venezuela? Would they seize on this opportunity? Will Russia sit under its massive resource umbrella and come out from all this as a new super power?
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The Backlash Cometh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:50 PM
Response to Original message
100. You forgot one thing
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 04:02 PM by The Backlash Cometh
Civil disobedience will take hold. We'll blame all of this on Bush and the Republicans, and even the Republican voter will run scared because they'll know we are right.

What will happen is that even martial law will fail since the Democrats and Independents will be justified in calling for a presidential impeachment, the US will lose its super power status, and another country will step in and take its place. Maybe it will be China, maybe it will be Russia, but we will no longer be respected in the world.
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 03:53 PM
Response to Reply #100
101. "no longer be" as in present tense?
Just a slip I'm sure.
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The Backlash Cometh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:01 PM
Response to Reply #101
102. I think there is still a chance to blame the last six years on the GOP
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 04:13 PM by The Backlash Cometh
the oil industry and the neo-cons. I think other nations know that stolen elections are possible and that we might be forgiven for being naive in believing that it could not happen here. The fact that all US media is unreliable is now only becoming apparent to most Americans. But I think they'll forgive us, once we start marching in the streets and willing to take on tanks with our bare hands. It's not going to be pretty, and there may be martyrs among us, but that is far better than sitting at home and watching our children being drafted to be dragged off to kill other innocent children.
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Rex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:18 PM
Response to Original message
106. All roads lead to Damascus.
nt
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Marie26 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 04:57 PM
Response to Original message
109. Ridiculous. nt
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Postman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 05:59 PM
Response to Original message
110. but the bright side is Jesus will be here.....
a Rapture Right wet dream....
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 06:36 PM
Response to Original message
115. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 06:38 PM
Response to Original message
117. UPDATE
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HooptieWagon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 06:45 PM
Response to Original message
118. Okay, so its a scary bedtime story
but really we have no idea things will go down like that. For instance, suppose after Iran turns off the oil spigots, China invades to preserve their oil supply - in effect entering the war on the US side? That is as likely an outcome as the OP. We just don't know.
If a large scale war does break out, hopefully some ally will slap some sense into dumbass before he "stays the course" right over a cliff...
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Redneck Socialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 07:29 PM
Response to Original message
121. Nah...
You had me up until Iran takes out US ships. Makes no sense at any level unless Iran wants to commit suicide, or deciding it has already lost it wants to drag everyone else down with it.

Israel Vs Syria/Iran will freak even GeeDubya out and everyone will take a step back.
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Poll_Blind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 07:44 PM
Response to Original message
122. Everything you have said is a quite reasonable series of events.
Everything.

PB
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Lochloosa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 08:47 PM
Response to Original message
128. Thanks Will....
I'll sleep better tonight
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Cobalt Violet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 09:50 PM
Original message
Dupe.
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 09:53 PM by Cobalt Violet
:kick:
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Cobalt Violet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 09:50 PM
Response to Original message
129. I can't wait for the sequel.
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 09:53 PM by Cobalt Violet
:kick:

Damn! It's already out.
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Fiendish Thingy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 10:17 PM
Response to Original message
130. Apocalypse Now? Not likely.
Will, as always, another well written, thought provoking article.
Unless I missed it, nowhere do you state whether you think this WILL happen, only that maybe it COULD happen...where DO you stand on the likelihood of this occurring?
Are YOU lying awake nights, hoarding food and water, etc. Or is this some kind of twisted revenge on the DU'ers who blasted you for the Leopold thing? ;-)

For your scenario to unfold, numerous events (which you plausibly describe, with well referenced facts) must occur precisely in sequence, without variance. If one of these players refuses to cooperate with your scenario, the whole thing falls apart. Not that there isn't plenty of potential for bloodshed and catastrophe, there is, without a doubt. But your scenario seems to suppose that ALL the players are motivated by fear, rage, and/or religious fanaticism.

In order to get to your version of the Apocalypse, you assume there will be no successful behind-the-scenes diplomacy/threats/bribes to persuade any of the players to act differently.

While many of the ME countries have a tenuous grip on stability already, even the loosest of cannons could be convinced to restrain himself for personal profit or self-preservation...your scenario mentions NONE of those possibilities. (Even Tom Clancy and John Le Carre slip some of these twists into their plot-lines ;-) ) Unless the launch keys and codes fall into the hands of Hizbollah or Al-Qaida, I think the chances are that Armageddon will be avoided.

Remember, the biggest dogs in this fight (individual wise) are Cheney and Rumsfield. They appear to be more motivated by power and greed. I'm assuming neither one would wish to be a supreme fascist ruler over the US under the circumstances you describe above, and neither would wish to retire in a post-apocalyptic world such as the one in your story. Remember, Cheney has got all those uncashed Halliburton stock options/share, doesn't he? Fat lot of good they'll do him if all hell breaks loose (not to mention if China calls in it's markers).

Speaking of China, along with Russia, they can bring significant pressure to bear on the various players too. You assume everyone will be reacting to the actions of fanatics and madmen, after the fact, with no preventative measures taken.

My theory? Rove and Cheney will milk this for all its worth to avoid their own "Armageddon" in November, but won't LIHOP to the point you describe in your last paragraph- Karl doesn't want to live in an America where you have to go through a military checkpoint to get to the Krispy Kreme drive thru...

Notice I didn't mention Bush in any of this? After this past week, he has proven himself completely, and utterly irrelevant.

So to sum up, Apocalypse Now? Not this week.

Besides it can't happen yet, I'm going to Maui next week.

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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
131. Just one question: What happned to the US attack on Iran?
Just wonderin'. I was sincerely expecting it to happen in June, from everything I read here on DU. Should I be more skeptical of these sorts of predictions or was the day of judgement merely delayed?
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The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 11:30 PM
Original message
You Should Be More Skeptical Of Such Predictions, Sir
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Swamp Rat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 10:35 PM
Response to Original message
132. !
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Zorra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-23-06 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
133. Not to worry. Bu*h will send Karen Hughes to straighten things out.
:nuke:
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Fovea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
134. I always knew you were an optimist at heart.
Edited on Mon Jul-24-06 12:39 AM by realpolitik
I expect the fifth column actions in the US to start any day, and I figure the Israeli campaign in Lebanon will rapidly veer into Syria just behind the air assault-- because I think Israel's likudniks are no more honest with the Israeli people than our government is. I fear that the Israeli air assault on Syria will massively target civilian areas, and collective anger will erupt far from Damascus. In particular while I too worry about Iran, Pakistan is a bigger worry to me.

Musharraf is a puppet with two sets of strings, holding bottles of nitro in hands almost completely devoid at this point of voalition. Our troops, far from facing a mob of tribal fighters and enraged mullahs, will be vaporized by the Indian govt in situ. Why? Because our assurances that we are on top of the matter will not be sufficient to the Indians. If we werent capable of saving New Orleans, how can we save India from AQ Khan's boomers.

On getting their first Indian launch warnings on CNN, the Pakistani forces will launch on Israel and India.
Israel will hit everyone they have targeted. Not just Pakistan, places like Iran, the kingdom of Saud, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon... how many nukes do they have? They don't need a second strike capability,so they will launch them all. They will only have a few minutes to make the decision, and I expect all players will make the wrong choice.
Well, if they are going to die, the hell with the rest of the neighborhood.

Do I expect we will get nuked in this round? Yes, I do. The great king of terrorists will stroll down Pennsylvania Ave. with a shiny new briefcase, contemplating houris and smiling serenely. But I also think China may get one, and maybe Afghanistan, just because no one wants their iron age culture to be the only intact state in the region.

Will Iraq take one? No, Iraq will take several. Oil will stop coming out of the middle east for the forseeable future.
Likewise Persia. Here in the smoking hole that was our previous seat of govt, the martial law emergency military govt will re instate the draft, not so much to replace the 150K or so we lose in Iraq and Afghanistan (because observers in radiation suits checking out the well heads will be decades away), but to prepare for our invasion of Venezuela, Cuba, and Mexico. For several decades we would control the largest extractable oil reserves on the planet. We will absolve ourselves of the Chinese debt, claming it was part of a trade war gone hot, and go into a command economy under a non-convertable emergency currency.

But it will be win-win for the surviving neo cons, right up to the revolution/civil war.

In the midst of that period of anarchy, they will be introduced to rude justice, South Africa Stylee.
America will be under fatwa from sub saharan Africans and the eastern half of the Islamic world from that point
onward.





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Cobalt-60 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 02:24 AM
Response to Original message
137. Nostalgic
Old farts like myself recall growing up during the cold war.
It was hammered in that the Reds might push the button any minute.
The threat that everything and everyone, everywhere could be incinerated on a moment's notice was constant.
The terror I experience when I consider what kind of pigtards have their hands on atomic weapons really brings it all back.
If the GOPS stay in power, this sort of scenario is inevitable. These people will take any risk if it has potential to line their pockets.
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theboss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 01:17 PM
Response to Original message
142. Someone has been cribbing from the Atlantic
Though the declaration of martial law is a unique spin. Generally, it's just economic collapse that follows.
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Bake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
143. A coule of quibbles ...
First, Will doesn't say WHY the US ships in the gulf are targeted/sunk. I don't think Iran really wants to attack the US directly. But if they WERE to do so, Will, you make no mention of the inevitable US retaliation.

And we most definitely WOULD retaliate.

Further, I frankly think that if Israel turned Iran and Syria into glass (nukes, I assume), we'd use ours. Not on Israel, but on Pakistan or anybody else who didn't back the fuck off.

But that's just quibbling. Regardless, the end result is the same.

Bake
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Blue-Jay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-25-06 12:16 AM
Response to Original message
145. I'm still not freaked out.
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deaniac21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-27-06 01:31 PM
Response to Original message
147. You had me until the third paragraph then I fell asleep for
24 business hours.
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