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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:39 PM
Original message
Official Mexico Presidential Recount Results(Thread #2) -0.94% lead
Edited on Wed Jul-05-06 11:32 PM by jsamuel
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texasleo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:41 PM
Response to Original message
1. People with cable/dish can watch Galavision
They are the Fox News of Mexico, but it's better than nothing.

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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:41 PM
Response to Original message
2. 90.74% reporting - 1.18 lead
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:46 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. 90.89%....still 1.18 lead.... no gain for Calderon
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Avalux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:41 PM
Response to Original message
3. I hope he can hang in there!
:kick:
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gorbal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:48 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. Doesn't "Calderon" sound like the name of an evil goblin or something
Does anyone else remember something like that name from children's books?

It sounds like the evil goblins are working overtime tonight bringing our heroes vote count down:(
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Avalux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:52 PM
Original message
Are you thinking cauldron (as in witch's)?
I believe cauldron is the origin of the name, which is Spanish. :hi:
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gorbal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:11 PM
Response to Original message
26. No, maybe it was some creature from "The Tempest" or something

Or perhaps some obscure fantasy novel I read once...just a great name for an evil goblin in general:)
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demosincebirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:36 PM
Response to Original message
52. Means large cauldron
Edited on Wed Jul-05-06 11:37 PM by augie38
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gorbal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 08:30 AM
Response to Reply #52
311. No it means evil gremlin
It's an evil gremlin that sneaks into ballot boxes under cover of night and throws them in the garbage...I remember now:)
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #8
97. Yup...
And there was a right wing President Caldern in El Salvador in the late 90s, and a right wing President Caldern (later jailed for corruption) in the early 90s in Costa Rica.
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The Anti-Neo Con Donating Member (402 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:46 PM
Response to Original message
5. So, what happens after this recount?
Will the man with the highest # of votes be declared winner? Or might more re-counts follow since this is still so damn close?
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:47 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. the head of the IFE (elections agency) says they will declare winner
tonight.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. 91.03 %....1.16 lead
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fighttheevilempire Donating Member (183 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #9
16. Still updating...
I was posting in the other thread, moved it to here.

At the rate things are going, i'd say obrador will win by half a point. Still very close. Obrador needs approx 30.0% of the last uncounted votes to win, while calderon needs 41.7% to win.


My numbers change slow but its mostly due to the tiny increases we see each update. Working on new numbers now.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. This isn't a recount, really
It's the official check of the preliminary count done on Sunday.

I think there will be a recount, though, no matter which candidate comes out winning by one point. It's just too close for either one to accept the other as a clear winner.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:47 PM
Response to Original message
6. Is it me or is every election everywhere becoming a 50/50 proposition?
US, Italy, Mexico....it really isn't healthy to have such divided world.....when it is that evenly split, the loser is always going to think they are getting screwed.
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. Good thing we have a "uniter" like Bush, eh?
At least he is uniting America against him.
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #6
14. close elections are NORMAL
parties usually position themselves and select candidates so as to win by small margins.
there's some good game theory behind it.
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #14
20. I don't think they position themselves to win by 50%+1. I think it's a
consequence of having two competitive sides. If one side can get 60%, the other side works hard to claw back to 50%.

It takes extraordinary circumstances for one side to get overwhelming support and the other side not to be able to claw back.

Also -- and maybe this is game theory -- if you can spend 50 million to win an election by 5%, why spend 100 million to win by 8%? Save your money for the next battle because the other side will ultimately figure out a way to get support back, and politics rarely result in permanent victories built on landslides.
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:53 PM
Response to Reply #20
68. that is all part of it
you are absolutely correct, the "why win by 8% when you can win by 5%?" and also the money factor are at play. the "position themselves" phrase that i used is a simplification, thanks for fleshing it out a bit.

of course it gets more complicated where there are more than 2 parties at play, but many of the same factors apply.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #6
15. Ain't that the truth?
Something's really gotta give.
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #6
17. I think it's the media's way of provinding a plausible win for the loser.
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Jazz2006 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:49 PM
Response to Original message
10. Wow ~ talk about a squeaker!
Thank you so much for continuing to post updates. Much appreciated!

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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
13. 91.21% reporting - 1.13 lead
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 10:58 PM
Response to Original message
18. 91.39% reporting - 1.11% lead
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:00 PM
Response to Original message
19. 91.56% reporting - 1.08 lead
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. Please don't let this get stolen from him.
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:07 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. We Are Not In Control Of Anything....Anywhere
There is little justice left in the world. We are becoming extinct.
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ChipperbackDemocrat Donating Member (331 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:09 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. Formato 21 Mexico City is calling election for Obrador!
According to Formato 21 Radio-Mexico City the trend looks permanent for Obrador. AMLO Gana! AMLO Gana!
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:09 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. Well, there may not be much solace to it but eventually these
bastards are going to cannibalize themselves and collapse. Their kind of world is not sustainable. They always fall apart in the end.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #24
28. 91.96 1.04 %
C'mon Obrador. HANG ON.
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gorbal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #22
29. 1.04 lead now, that's it I'm going to bed
Is this last ten percent taking suspiciously long or are they just getting tired of counting? I'm getting tired of watching, I'll hope for the morning:)
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W_HAMILTON Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:16 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. I should go to bed, too
They started really slowing down in reporting the last 10% or so. It's all very interesting to me though, so maybe I'll stay up a bit more :)
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Poiuyt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:09 PM
Response to Original message
25. 91.71% reporting - 1.06 difference
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W_HAMILTON Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:11 PM
Response to Original message
27. 91.96% reporting - 1.04% difference
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:17 PM
Response to Original message
31. 92.17% reporting - lead under 1% = 0.99%
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. what website are you on? link?
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:20 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. in op
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:21 PM
Response to Reply #32
35. Try this link.
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:24 PM
Response to Reply #35
39. This is dropping precipitously.
Edited on Wed Jul-05-06 11:26 PM by NYC
.99% lead for Lopez Obrador.

36.11% Lopez Obrador
35.12% Calderon
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W_HAMILTON Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:20 PM
Response to Reply #31
33. That's a pretty sizable jump for him
Are any of the other news stations calling the race yet? I saw another poster say that one channel did. I figured it was a pretty insurmountable lead, too, but jumping .05% in just 0.21% of the total vote is pretty big.
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RB TexLa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #33
36. not really, they are counting them by polling stations

there are some stations that are going to be very lopsided for one or the other.
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ChipperbackDemocrat Donating Member (331 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:24 PM
Response to Reply #36
38. Link Mexican Radio Stations
http://www.vilches.com.mx/radio/mexico.html

I've been switching between a group of news station in Mexico D.F.

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W_HAMILTON Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #36
40. Yeah, but I've been watching it since the afternoon
And that's about the biggest jump he's had so far. Just a few percentage points ago, it was taking him around 1% of the total vote to make up .05% of the vote. Just then, he made up .05% in just about .20% of the total vote. So yeah, that's pretty sizable. If he keeps that up, he would win. Hopefully that was just a fluke.
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RB TexLa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:26 PM
Response to Reply #40
44. no one expected much difference between the unofficial returns
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #44
70. There shouldn't be much difference
The party representatives had to certify the unofficial counts, so presumably they all kept an eagle eye on things or they wouldn't have signed off on them.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #33
42. The Panista states are coming in late
They've been showing a list on Mexican TV of outstanding states and they're almost all in the north. The PAN is accusing the PRD of somehow causing this. I don't understand how exactly.
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W_HAMILTON Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:26 PM
Response to Reply #42
43. Who do the North areas go for?
Calderon? Heavily Calderon?
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #43
49. Much of it
You can have a northern state like Zacatecas going for AMLO, but there's not a lot of voters in Zacatecas. In more prosperous/populous states like Jalisco, you have more Calderon sympathizers.
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #42
50. PAN is accusing PRD of causing what?
This is making me nervous.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #50
66. Accusing PRD
of somehow slowing the vote reporting from certain states that are considered for Calderon. Like I said, I don't quite get how it's supposed to work.
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necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #42
124. Possibly it's an attempt
to inoculate (counter preemptively) PAN from accusations of holding-off on reporting the votes from some of their strongholds until the end -- and padding these votes as necessary to win. A well-known, tried-and-true strategy here in the States.
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:22 PM
Response to Original message
37. 92.30% reporting - 0.98 lead
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fighttheevilempire Donating Member (183 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #37
45. between the 91.56 and 92.17% ...
obrador was being outpaced by calderon. If this rate keeps up it spells trouble. I should be able to tell better around 95%. Either way a full recount is almost inevitable in a race this close. It's going to be nasty.
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:25 PM
Response to Original message
41. 92.45% reporting - 0.96 lead
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fighttheevilempire Donating Member (183 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:36 PM
Response to Reply #41
53. Better...
the numbers are swaying back to Obrador, but not by much. Might just be a local place popping up that was heavier on one side than another, update by update. If Obrador can get about 30.3% of the remainder, he'll be okay.
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
46. 92.57% reporting - 0.94 lead
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:31 PM
Response to Original message
47. You Didn't Really Think They Were Going To Let Obrador Win?
Haven't you guys been through this enough times before? Most recently it was the San Diego election....prior to that the Canadian election....2004, 2002, 2000.....sense a pattern?

When you're in control of everything, you're not going to let a lefty down South have a real chance. King george needs to keep his neighbors in line. He's got a grip on Canada, and he's not going to let Mexico fall into democratic hands.

Watch....argue with me if you must....by the time the clock strikes midnight in CA, the outcome will be the one they want.
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jerry611 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #47
55. Much of Bush's free trade agenda depends on Calderon's win
Bush won't let Obrador steal his dream.
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Elwood P Dowd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:31 PM
Response to Original message
48. This looks like one of those late-night CSPAN votes
when we lead right up to 4:00 AM, and then the repukes pull it out by one vote when the world is asleep.
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:36 PM
Response to Original message
51. 92.69 - 0.92 lead
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #51
56. losing fast now - 92.83 - 0.9% lead
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #56
58. It's All Over But The Counting.....
Ya know who controls that.
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:37 PM
Response to Original message
54. Calderon Will Win By .50%
He'll pull ahead at around 97.5% of the vote, and pull out a win by around 1/2 of 1%.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #54
57. Is that figure arrived at through extrapolating current trends? n/t
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:43 PM
Response to Reply #57
59. It Always Works That Way For Us On The Left.....
Leading right up until the end, and then....BAM! As those final votes come in, his small victory will be padded enough that it's not extremely close.

This is why I expect he'll take the lead before the end, and then make it a "convincing" enough victory that there won't be need for another recount or discussion.
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
60. I gotta go to bed, if someone could take over
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #60
61. i'll post the updates when they come in n/t
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #60
62. Thanks For Your Help....
I fear the worst is yet to come. Sleep well. You're better off having pleasant thoughts before you wake to learn the final results.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:45 PM
Response to Original message
63. 92.97% counted .89% lead
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #63
65. my guesstimate is that Obrador wins tonight's tally...
Edited on Wed Jul-05-06 11:47 PM by blitzen
whether or not he is ever inaugurated is another question
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:58 PM
Response to Reply #65
73. I am truly beginning to wonder if it is even possible to defeat any of
these people legally and peacefully.

They get away with whatever they want, whenever they want, and they do it virtually unopposed.

Why would they ever stop, unless something rises up and PHYSICALLY stops them?

I can only hope this time will be different, but I worry about out fate here in the states as well.

I have zero confidence in our Electoral Process here right now.

Perhaps the pendulum will swing our way.
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:59 PM
Response to Reply #73
75. Italy? nt
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tgnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:46 PM
Response to Original message
64. 93.10%: 0.88
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #64
67. good...Calderon's advance has slowed
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:53 PM
Response to Original message
69. 93.20 .86 lead
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #69
71. 93.32% .85 lead
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:59 PM
Response to Reply #71
74. Thanks for the update
I have to stay up and see who wins this one.

GO LEFTY!
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-05-06 11:57 PM
Response to Original message
72. 93.32% counted.......... .85 lead
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:01 AM
Response to Original message
76. 93.44% .81 lead looks like a "miraculous" comeback
is a distinct possibility
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:05 AM
Response to Original message
77. Obrador has this in the bag.
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:06 AM
Response to Reply #77
78. 93.57% .79 lead
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #78
81. 93.67% .77 lead
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:07 AM
Response to Reply #77
79. i thought so about 10 min ago....but now not so sure n/t
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tgnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #77
82. It looks like it's heading to something like Calderon 35.8, AMLO 35.4
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 12:11 AM by tgnyc
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tgnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #82
87. 93.77%: .77
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fighttheevilempire Donating Member (183 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #77
85. I wouldnt take that for granted.
my calculations show calderon is catching up at approximately the rate he needs to eke it out. He's been getting i'd guess about 42.2-5% of the vote in the last few percent, and unless that recedes a bit, obrador is still in a lot of heat. All obrador needs is about 30.7% of the vote, but that number keeps climbing as calderon keeps approaching.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:08 AM
Response to Original message
80. 93.67% .77 lead
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
83. 93.67% only .77 lead
35.99% Lopez Obrador
35.22% Calderon
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
84. I think the percentage is shrinking
not the number of votes he leads by.

Read me?
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jerry611 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #84
86. The percentage gap will shrink
With the 3rd parties getting votes, it shrinks the percentage gap but not the margin of victory.

We need to know the actual vote counts to really determine the trend.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #84
89. yes, true, but Calderon has been making real gains....
although, with the latest update, i think you're right, Obrador will win--barely!
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:13 AM
Response to Original message
88. 93.77% .77 lead good, Calderon stalled on that update
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:16 AM
Response to Original message
90. 93.88% .75 lead
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:17 AM
Response to Original message
91. 93.88% .75 lead
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:21 AM
Response to Original message
92. % is dropping.
400,000 votes is a larger percent of 50% than 400,000 votes with 98% counted. Same lead just a smaller percentage of the total vote.

Lefty has it.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #92
94. yes, but the counting has been slow and the lead has been
dropping relatively fast
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:21 AM
Response to Original message
93. 93.99% .75 lead Calderon stalls again
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:26 AM
Response to Original message
95. 94.09% .73 lead
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 12:27 AM by AnOhioan
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #95
98. i think it's .73....Obrador may eke it out
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #98
100. I know...I mistyped .... corrected
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fighttheevilempire Donating Member (183 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:33 AM
Response to Reply #95
105. These numbers are so back and forth
One minute one is doing poorly, the next its the opposite.

It's trending in the right direction for now, but its almost hard to report as I'll be contradicted soon. Right now Obrador needs 30.6 of the remainder, and calderon needs 42.3%, and he's been getting about that much recently. The last step he slowed, so we'll see.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:26 AM
Response to Original message
96. 94.09% .73 lead
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #96
103. At this rate Obrador wins by less than .10
This is goig to get very ugly.
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:28 AM
Response to Original message
99. I would like to know the actual vote count.
Like how many votes does he lead by?
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tgnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:29 AM
Response to Original message
101. At this rate, it finishes with CALDERON ahead by about 0.15
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 12:44 AM by tgnyc
No matter what, this doesn't end tonight. Or tomorrow.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:29 AM
Response to Original message
102. Ballot recount?
My Spanish is so-so, but I think the president of IFE just said starting tomorrow morning they will start counting original ballots.
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eleny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:31 AM
Response to Reply #102
104. Including the ballots found in the garbage dump...
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 08:56 AM
Response to Reply #102
313. I misunderstood
According to a friend I spoke with this morning who worked the polls in her town:

The news last night was that Calderon had agreed to a hand count if one is ordered by the courts, not as I misinterpreted that the IFE was ready to do a hand count.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:34 AM
Response to Original message
106. 94.22% .71 lead
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:36 AM
Response to Original message
107. 94.32% .69 lead
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:37 AM
Response to Reply #107
109. Not looking too good right now
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:38 AM
Response to Reply #109
110. Calderon is on pace to make up the difference
still chance of a stall, though ...
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fighttheevilempire Donating Member (183 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #110
115. My numbers look like obrador will lose by .17%
it's really going to come down to the last 3% before i'm really sure - that should be the turning point.
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:46 AM
Response to Reply #115
118. i have it between .12 and .15, depending on how far I go back
very close--close enough for a stall. I hope we're both wrong ...
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #109
112. Palast may be right about this one unfortunately
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zonkers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
108. "It's a squeaker, Mr. M..."
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 12:39 AM by zonkers
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:39 AM
Response to Original message
111. My guess is
the lefty still has a half million vote lead.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:52 AM
Response to Reply #111
127. This is bullsh!t. There aren't enough landed, well heeled people
in the country to cast those votes.

:mad:
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:40 AM
Response to Original message
113. 94.44% .67
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:40 AM
Response to Original message
114. Losing roughly .15 for every point counted
That's been steady since I started looking at the percentages an hour ago. You would think that would slow as we get closer to 100%.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:44 AM
Response to Original message
116. 94.53% .65 lead
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:45 AM
Response to Reply #116
117. Damn....dropping a bit faster
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:46 AM
Response to Reply #117
119. 94.61% .64 lead
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:47 AM
Response to Original message
120. The Lefty has a 271,837 vote lead
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RB TexLa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:47 AM
Response to Original message
121. 256,645 vote lead at 94.53%

Lopez Obrador 14,186,559

Felipe Calderon 13,929,914
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:48 AM
Response to Reply #121
122. What link are you using?
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RB TexLa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #122
125. the one in the OP
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:49 AM
Response to Reply #121
123. Thanks
No way Calderon can overcome 256,645 tonight.
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:52 AM
Response to Reply #123
126. You Haven't Seen Much Here These Past 6 Years, Have You? nt
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:57 AM
Response to Reply #126
130. Well, they might have more
lefties counting votes down there :)
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:56 AM
Response to Reply #123
129. there are still well over 2 million votes out, though
if calderon wins the outstanding votes at about a 56-44 pace (slightly less than what he's been on for the last couple million votes), he could have enough to make up for that 256k.
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:59 AM
Response to Reply #129
133. He Knows He Won
He'll pass him before the finish, and that's all that matters. SOB's that they are.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:03 AM
Response to Reply #129
137. Where are those votes?
Is it Guanajuato, Sonora, San Luis Potosi, Nuevo Leon etc.? The list of states they've been showing all night? If that's it, Calderon's probably got it.
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:08 AM
Response to Reply #137
142. based on how quickly he's gaining ground, i'd guess so
i don't know for sure, though ...
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:16 AM
Response to Reply #142
152. I think it must be
The list has been shortening as Calderon's numbers rose. I have a hard time following what Mexican reporters say because they talk so fast, so I wasn't sure, but it had to have been. Meanwhile some of his strongest areas haven't come in yet, so there's more to come, I guess. Well, I'll call it for Calderon and go to bed now.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:53 AM
Response to Original message
128. 94.69% .62 lead
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:57 AM
Response to Original message
131. When Can We Get Together And Do This Again?
Seems like every few weeks we get together and watch a Democratic candidate go down in flames.

I'm sure when November rolls around we'll be right back here getting updates and watching Democrat leads turn into slim repub victories. Maybe we'll even manage to pick up a seat or two, but not enough to really matter.

It's so fucking depressing watching our side lose again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again again and again and again and again and again and again and again and agaagain and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again in and again again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again.
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 12:58 AM
Response to Reply #131
132. 94.76% .60 lead
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:00 AM
Response to Reply #132
134. 94.85% .59 lead
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:00 AM
Response to Original message
135. 94.76% .60 lead i'm losing hope
looks like Calderon will eke it out....and will claim legitimacy based upon the erroneous preliminary count......A classic move from the Bush 2000 playbook
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:07 AM
Response to Reply #135
140. barring challenges, looks like obrador will hold on
calderon is not closing the gap fast enough.

the margin seems small at 0.57%, but with nearly 19 out of every 20 votes counted, this means that calderon must capture the remaining votes by about a 10% margin over obrador.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:10 AM
Response to Reply #140
145. Calderon is winning remaining votes by 10+ %
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:17 AM
Response to Reply #145
201. Obrador has won only about 26% of the last 650,000 votes
It is not looking good.
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Elwood P Dowd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:02 AM
Response to Original message
136. The Bush crime family has it programmed for Calderon to win
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 01:08 AM by Elwood P Dowd
by .25% of the vote at about 4:00 AM EDT. Somewhere at about 98-99% he will take the lead and cruise to victory. It's Deja vu all over again as Yogi would say.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:07 AM
Response to Reply #136
139. What you are probably seeing tonight is a preview of November 2006
and 2008 in this country.

Christ, what is the point anymore.

Is it even realistic anymore to think these people can be beaten legally and peacefully through this process?

Maybe it's time to pull out the playbook from the late 1700's. At least in this country.

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Elwood P Dowd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:18 AM
Response to Reply #139
154. It's SOP for these bastards
They even do it in the House. Remember CAFTA/Medicare Drug Bill? The results will come in too late for any news coverage today, and it will be page ten by Friday.
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:04 AM
Response to Original message
138. Gotta crash folks I will see the news in the a.m.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:08 AM
Response to Reply #138
141. You probably aren't going to like what you wake up to.
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AnOhioan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:09 AM
Response to Reply #141
144. Last post for tonite 94.93% .57 lead
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:09 AM
Response to Original message
143. 94.92% .57 lead
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:13 AM
Response to Reply #143
146. That's a very small lead, it's going to be less than .10 with 99% I bet
Then it will be truly contested.
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zonkers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:28 AM
Original message
Calderon needs to make up over half a point with less than 5% of
the votes left to count. I dont see how he can.
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:16 AM
Response to Reply #143
153. .55% lead.
Someone please extrapolate.

95.06%

35.87% Lopez Obrador
35.32% Calderon
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:13 AM
Response to Original message
147. yahoo news
"The loser of the recount is expected to appeal to Mexico's electoral court, which must rule on vote disputes by August 31 and declare a winner by September 6."

Probably be a hand recount.
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RB TexLa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:15 AM
Response to Reply #147
151. Both said they would accept the results of this count

:shrug:
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:13 AM
Response to Original message
148. 94.98% .56 lead
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:13 AM
Response to Original message
149. calderon must lead by over 10% for the remaining votes in order to win
barring legal challenges or whatever.

a half percent loss in 19 out of 20 cases means the 20th case must be won by 10% for calderon to win.
possible, but improbable.
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:15 AM
Response to Reply #149
150. I agree, "possible, but improbable"
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:25 AM
Response to Reply #150
161. .53% lead
95.17%
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:18 AM
Response to Reply #149
155. sorry, it's probable....
because for the last few hours he has been winning by that rate....apparently his strength is in the north and those votes have been coming in late
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:20 AM
Response to Reply #155
157. That's the story right there nt
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:58 AM
Response to Reply #155
310. ah, i did not know the last vote counts were all from the same region
that would explain how nearly every single update has been in calderon's favor.

of course, theft would explain it as well,....
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:19 AM
Response to Reply #149
156. he "won" the 19th case at an even faster clip
At 90.09, he was down by 1.24, but closed more than half the gap during the last 5 percent of the count.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:23 AM
Response to Reply #156
159. Not only that
He was down .69 at 94.32 counted. Now it's down to .53 at 95.17. So he's on a much faster pace even within the last .85 of a point, than the four previous full points during that 19th case.
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:27 AM
Response to Reply #159
164. Are you a phin fan?
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:30 AM
Response to Reply #164
172. Season ticket holder '72
Not bad timing by my dad, huh? That was the first year he bought season tickets for the family. I post on finheaven with the same user name.
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:38 AM
Response to Reply #172
178. Yes, I thought a saw your name there.
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 01:42 AM by Reckon
I haven't posted there in a few years. Saban is doing a great job! Fins SB coming soon!

Edit: yes, 72 was a great year to get on board. I became a fan in 71.
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:24 AM
Response to Reply #156
160. He would have to pick up the pace
to win at that rate.
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:30 AM
Response to Reply #160
170. he's been winning at pretty close to that rate
for the last 5% (which is as long as I've been tuned in).

I still hope he might slow, though ...
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cal04 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:20 AM
Response to Original message
158.  95.17 % 0.52 pts
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 01:23 AM by cal04
this is killing me
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:25 AM
Response to Reply #158
162. 95.27 % .52 points
a nice stall there ...
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cal04 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #162
166.  95.40 % 0.51 pts
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:48 AM
Response to Reply #158
184. .45% at 95.64%
It's killing me, too. The page is loading slower all the time.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:26 AM
Response to Original message
163. 95.27% .52
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #163
165. 95.40% .51 Calderon slowing?
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:29 AM
Response to Reply #165
169. He could be within .25 at this rate, very very close.
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #163
167. Hang tough, blitzen!
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:28 AM
Response to Original message
168. 95.4%.... 0.51% difference nt
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:30 AM
Response to Original message
171. 95.48 % .49
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 01:31 AM by Reckon
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:32 AM
Response to Reply #171
173. yikes....was hoping for another stall
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:32 AM
Response to Original message
174. I'm getting it from here

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Jazz2006 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:35 AM
Response to Reply #174
175. Jesus, this feels like the night of the
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 01:37 AM by Jazz2006
separatism referendum up here in Canada several years ago.... cliffhanger.

(although without so much riding on it from my perspective, obviously)

Still, fascinating.



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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:38 AM
Response to Reply #174
177. Obrador needs to win 31% of the remaining vote
assuming the 3rd party voting rate stays steady (and it has stayed pretty steady for the last 5+%)
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:35 AM
Response to Original message
176. 95.56%... 0.47% difference... nt
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:39 AM
Response to Original message
179. Televisa is saying some polling stations from Baja California are pending
Caldern won big time there. However, they say a little of Mexico City is left. Hopefully that will offset Baja California and the other right leaning states.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:45 AM
Response to Original message
180. States with most stations pending: Yucatn, Quertaro, Colima,
Baja California, Jalisco.

All of them were won by Caldern, some of them by a huge margin. :(
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:46 AM
Response to Reply #180
181. then it is over I guess
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:47 AM
Response to Original message
182. 95.72% .44 lead
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:47 AM
Response to Original message
183. I'd estimate that Obrador needs 14, 870, 100 votes to win
At the last update he had 14,312,112. So another 560,000 out of about 1.82 million outstanding should put him over the top.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:52 AM
Response to Reply #183
186. Where is the link with the raw vote total?
All I see is the (dwindling) percentage
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:54 AM
Response to Reply #186
187. I'm figuring it from the bottom image in the OP
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 01:54 AM by fishwax
which has the percentage as well as the total ballots cast.

I don't know if there's an actual updated count, but that's how I've been (trying) to keep track ...
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:00 AM
Response to Reply #187
190. OK, I thought I was missing something basic
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 02:04 AM by Awsi Dooger
So, based on that image from your post that I'm responding to, the total should be roughly:

14,335,254
14,171,079

For a margin of about 164,000 votes

On edit: I see the numbers on the image change as well, so my margin was correct as of the numbers at the time.
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:02 AM
Response to Reply #190
192. yep, but that margin is dwindling fast
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:58 AM
Response to Reply #183
189. .41% So he needs only about 1/3 of the remaining votes?
95.86%
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:00 AM
Response to Reply #189
191. sorry, our guy is losing...
if things keep going like they have the past few hours. It will be close, but he'll lose. And then who knows what will happen.
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:04 AM
Original message
1/3 should do it
but that won't be easy, given that the remaining votes are (from what i've read here) in highly conservative areas ...
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:50 AM
Response to Original message
185. Obrador's lead will be cut down below .25% at the current pace
This will perhaps be the most heavily contested election in years for Latin America.
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:04 AM
Response to Reply #185
193. .38%
96.01%
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 01:54 AM
Response to Original message
188. 95.86% .41 lead
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:04 AM
Response to Original message
194. 96.01%.... 0.38% difference....
This won't end well :cry:
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:04 AM
Response to Original message
195. 96.01% .38 lead
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:11 AM
Response to Original message
196. 96.08% .36 difference looking bad for the good guy
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:13 AM
Response to Original message
197. 96.16% .34 lead
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:14 AM
Response to Original message
198. 96.20%.... 0.34% difference...
The websites are a little behind, Televisa is more up to date. They say in this last update, for the first time in hours, Lpez Obrador was able to keep up at 0.34%.
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:16 AM
Response to Reply #198
199. finally a positive update
:/
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:19 AM
Response to Reply #198
203. Thank you for the good news.
This is driving me crazy.

96.20% with .34 lead on the website now.

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html

35.76% Lopez Obrador
35.42% Calderon
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:16 AM
Response to Original message
200. Approximate margin is 137,000 votes
That's when it was 96.15% and a .34 gap:

14,362,422
14,225,866
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:18 AM
Response to Original message
202. Mexico City has only reported 97.62%...
It went 2 to 1 for the PRD.

Durango and Guanajuato have not fully reported yet either. Durango went 2 to 1 for Caldern, and Guanajuato 5 to 1 for Caldern. However, they are have smaller populations than Mexico City.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:20 AM
Response to Original message
204. 96.27%... 0.32%...... nt
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:22 AM
Response to Original message
205. 96.36%... 0.31%...
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:24 AM
Response to Original message
206. 96.36% .31 lead
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:32 AM
Response to Reply #206
214. delete
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 02:33 AM by TheWatcher
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:33 AM
Response to Reply #214
215. delete
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 02:34 AM by TheWatcher
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:26 AM
Response to Original message
207. Calderon has gotten about 43% of the last 700,000 votes
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 02:27 AM by fishwax
to about 26% for Obrador. Unless this trend slows considerably, Calderon will end up winning by about 130,000 votes.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:26 AM
Response to Reply #207
208. i'm afraid you're right n/t
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:29 AM
Response to Reply #208
211. I tell ya, I'm glued to the computer and I've built a
little spreadsheet to follow the results and try to keep track of trends, as if I could somehow actually affect this thing. I don't know why I bother, as it seems it will only lead to even greater disappointment. :(
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:32 AM
Response to Reply #211
213. Keep reporting.
I'm also glued to the computer. I keep renewing the page and hoping.

There's still the possibility of the vote by vote recount that Lopez Obrador requested, isn't there?
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cal04 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:34 AM
Response to Reply #213
217. me too. The last time I did this was
with the Chavez election.
Seems Al Giordano who writes about this went to bed about 2 knowing there's going to be a battle today
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wagthedogwar Donating Member (173 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:40 AM
Response to Reply #217
221. the last time I did this...
was when the republicans kept the house vote open over 3 hours so they could 'glich' the votes and pass their drug rip off bill

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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:35 AM
Response to Reply #213
218. I think so
There's still the possibility of the vote by vote recount that Lopez Obrador requested, isn't there?


I think so, though I confess I don't know the ins and outs of the system.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:28 AM
Response to Reply #207
209. 130,000 Votes. About the number that Bush "won" by in Ohio
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 02:29 AM by TheWatcher
The Irony is so thick it's asphyxiating.

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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:29 AM
Response to Original message
210. 96.48%... 0.28%... nt
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:30 AM
Response to Original message
212. Margin roughly 125,000
That's at 96.36% and a .31 gap

14,390,765
14,265,978
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:39 AM
Response to Reply #212
219. now down to 112,000
but at the rate things are changing I have Calderon losing by 134,000. I figure there's just under 1.5 million votes left outstanding, so I suppose that's plenty of time for them to prove me wrong :)
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:51 AM
Response to Reply #219
232. Someone posted this at MyDD
"The following are finished counting:

Baja California Sur, Campeche, Coahuila, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Nayarit, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potos, Tamaulipas, Tlaxcala y Zacatecas.

The following states are yet to be completed:

97.74 Jalisco
97.74 Veracruz (Lopez Obrador)
97.45 Mxico (Lopez Obrador)
97.50 Tabasco (Lopez Obrador)
96.12 Distrito Federal (Lopez Obrador)
97.39 Sinaloa
96.94 Chiapas (Lopez Obrador)
48.42 Colima
68.44 Baja California
68.73 Durango
The last three are Calderon strongholds."

Now, that was posted about 45 minutes ago so no telling where the count since then has come from, but it looks very bad if the only three areas with plenty of the outstanding votes are all Calderon territory.
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:47 AM
Response to Reply #212
227. .25% 96.63%
35.72% Lopez Obrador
35.47% Calderon
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:55 AM
Response to Reply #227
239. .22% Start a new page, please.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:34 AM
Response to Original message
216. This is pathetic theater at this point
Calderon stole it. TWICE. This is just them having fun torturing the "hopeful masses" as somehow the pre-determined victor pulls ahead at the finish line.

This is Their idea of Pornography, and it is the most sickening thing I have ever seen.

Somehow I hope I am wrong, but we have seen this before.

It's getting old.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:40 AM
Response to Reply #216
220. They torture poor desperate people at their peril
They will reap the whirlwind if they trifle with poor people who are at their wit's end.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:22 AM
Response to Reply #220
260. And you know, I hope it comes to that, if it must.
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 03:22 AM by TheWatcher
They NEED to reap the whirlwind.

It is past time for them to pay the check.

They have done enough to this planet, and enough to us.

As far as I'm concerned, it is time for them to get what is coming to them.

They deserve the whirlwind, and much, MUCH worse.

It's getting to the point there may not be a punishment fit enough for them.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:40 AM
Response to Original message
222. 96.63%... 0.25%... nt
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:42 AM
Response to Original message
223. 96.63% .25 lead
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Richard Steele Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:44 AM
Response to Original message
224. These "results" are bullshit issued by people who have already...
...proven themselves GUILTY of "Election Fraud".

These "official results" are going to declare victory for Calderon;
everyone knows that. He will pull ahead by one percent when the last
.01 percent of returns come in.

There will be BLOOD in the streets tomorrow, when the Mexican electorate
rises up and FIGHTS the liars who stole this election.

And this time, the MAJORITY might actually prevail:
the Mexican Army has remained uncharacteristically SILENT
about it's potential responses to the outcome of this blatantly stolen election.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:45 AM
Response to Original message
225. 96.72%... 0.23%... nt
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:48 AM
Response to Reply #225
228. Shit. It's getting worse
Are there still returns from Mexico City left? Somebody mentioned that upthread ...
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:52 AM
Response to Reply #228
233. Yes, a few minutes ago they said that about 2.5% of Mexico DF is left...
Probably a good chunk of those are PRD's votes, the problem is the other states, that although are less populated, went heavily for Caldern.
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:53 AM
Response to Reply #228
236. I don't know, but I hope
they're withholding some Mexico City polls to put the smack down on the right-wingers at the last minute.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:46 AM
Response to Original message
226. I now predict Obrador's lead will be cut down to .10 percent
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 02:48 AM by Selatius
This is not good news. Beyond .10 there is little room left.
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:50 AM
Response to Reply #226
230. at this rate, his lead will have evaporated completely by 98%
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:52 AM
Response to Reply #230
234. Which is exactly what was pre-ordained.
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 02:52 AM by TheWatcher
Like a thief in the night it is stolen. AGAIN.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:50 AM
Response to Reply #226
231. Obrador is toast....sorry to say...
look how fast he went from a .47% lead to a .23

At this rate (which has been rock steady for hours) he will lose his lead with about 98% counted...and will end up losing by enough to let Calderon declare victory and try to block recounts
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:53 AM
Response to Reply #231
235. I don't know if it will be enough to declare total victory
at this point, it looks like calderon will win by about 140,000 votes--maybe about a .25/.3 margin. I have no idea what procedures are for challenges, recounts (hanging punchcards :eyes:) etc.
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necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:50 AM
Response to Original message
229. Can we get a new thread? /nt
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:54 AM
Response to Reply #229
238. yes, please do!
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necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:01 AM
Original message
At this point,
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 03:05 AM by necso
it takes something of a consensus, maybe. The OP is gone, I think, and I don't know if anyone has assumed the role -- at least to that extent.

This thread is getting pretty long -- but thread-discipline has been good, and I wouldn't wish to disrupt this.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:54 AM
Response to Original message
237. 96.85%... 0.21%... nt
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:57 AM
Response to Original message
240. 96.89%... 0.21%... sort of good news... nt
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 02:59 AM
Response to Reply #240
241. Just wondering
what is "nt"?
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:00 AM
Response to Reply #241
242. no text.. you don't need to click the header..also eom.. end of message
:hi:
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:01 AM
Response to Reply #242
244. I like the pic in your sig line
:rofl:
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:03 AM
Response to Reply #244
245. Thanks..n/t
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:00 AM
Response to Reply #241
243. signaling that there is "no text" in the message body
:)
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:04 AM
Response to Reply #241
246. Thank you both.
Had me puzzled. :)

:hi:
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:05 AM
Response to Original message
247. 96.94%... 0.19% nt
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 03:05 AM by arcos
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:06 AM
Response to Original message
248. Margin down to 85,000
14,451,063
14,366,057

That's when it was still a .21 gap. Now I see it's lower, .19.

Unless we somehow play even for 1.5% or slightly more, Calderon wins and by more than 100,000 votes at this rate.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:06 AM
Response to Original message
249. 96.98%... 0.19% nt
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cal04 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:06 AM
Response to Original message
250.  96.94% .19 pts nt
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:10 AM
Response to Original message
251. I'm calling it now. Obrador has been defeated according to these results.
It's over. Unless Obrador decides to stand up and fight for every damn vote, he is lost.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:17 AM
Response to Reply #251
256. Maybe it's not only time for him to do that, but for the PEOPLE to stand
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 03:17 AM by TheWatcher
up as well.

Like I said upthread, it is getting increasingly unrealistic to think that these people are ever going to be defeated in a lawful and peaceful manner, especially Electorally.

These people have too much money, too much power, and too much control.

They need to be stopped.

But perhaps this isn't the way.
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:31 AM
Response to Reply #251
268. 97.13% .14 lead
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:11 AM
Response to Original message
252. 97.03%... 0.17%... nt
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:15 AM
Response to Reply #252
254. Fantastic link I found with past elections & their numbers
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:19 AM
Response to Reply #254
257. Great link, thanks! nt
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:15 AM
Response to Original message
253. Percentages on the last million votes
Obrador >> 26.76
Calderon >> 44.04

There are about 1.1 million votes left, I think. Obrador will have to win 32.8% of them in order to hold on to his lead.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:20 AM
Response to Reply #253
258. What lead?
Yeah I guess it's technically a lead but we haven't won an update since I started following this. Hard to believe in a race this close. In fact, if someone tuned in right now without knowing the direction it would look pretty good. Reminds me of a sports bet where I'm winning big at halftime then blow every possesion the second half.
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:23 AM
Response to Reply #258
261. the prevent defense strikes again?
Reminds me of a sports bet where I'm winning big at halftime then blow every possesion the second half.


That's about right, unfortunately :/ This "lead" has been steadily withering since I started following it too. Maybe I'm bad luck :shrug:
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:26 AM
Response to Reply #261
264. LOL, I hate the prevent defense too. nt
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:37 AM
Response to Reply #261
273. This is an ongoing trend for me
Roar, then snore. That's the pattern for everything I root for. At least in sports they let me wager on the first half only. I even use that in under my user name at a few sports sites: http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showpost.php?p=2591187&postcount=31

Too bad we can't stop these elections at halftime. Other than Washington state we'd come out way ahead.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:20 AM
Response to Reply #253
259. Thanks for the numbers...
It seems unlikely he'll make it x(
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:26 AM
Response to Reply #259
263. yep, I think you're right
dammit.
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:38 AM
Response to Reply #263
275. .09 lead at 97.31% Someone start a new thread, please.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:17 AM
Response to Original message
255. 97.08%... 0.15%... nt
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:24 AM
Response to Original message
262. 97.19%... 0.12%... nt
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:28 AM
Response to Original message
265. Yup, doing their dirty work in the dark of night!.. nt
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:29 AM
Response to Original message
266. 97.25%... 0.1%.... nt
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:32 AM
Response to Reply #266
270. I just started to say I expect big jump any minute now. nt
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:31 AM
Response to Original message
267. I can see fights breaking out as we speak.
I don't think the poor people in Mexico will take this laying down.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:00 AM
Response to Reply #267
292. I hope they don't
It is time for this crap to stop.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:32 AM
Response to Original message
269. 97.31%... 0.09%... nt
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LittleClarkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:38 AM
Response to Reply #269
276. For some reason, the theme from "Jaws" keeps running through my head
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 03:38 AM by LittleClarkie
As if Calderon is sneaking up on Obrador like a shark.
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beltanefauve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:35 AM
Response to Original message
271. Diferencia porcentual
0.14% at this hour of the night. NO FUCKING WAY that many poor people voted for Calderon to even make this close!:mad:
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:36 AM
Response to Original message
272. I guess I've enjoyed about as much of this as I can stand
Things are not looking good, alas, and I think I need to head to bed. The way I figure it he has to win 33.8 percent of the remaining vote in order to win, and the apparent winning margin for Calderon is getting closer to 200,000. The best hope now is for the recount, I suppose.

Goodnight, DU'ers, and may we all wake up pleasantly surprised :/
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:37 AM
Response to Original message
274. 97.37%... 0.07%...
x(
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SensibleAmerican Donating Member (460 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:39 AM
Response to Original message
277. FWIW, we were on the other end of the stick on this in Florida 2000
Bush had this 10 point lead that kept dwindiling and dwindiling until Gore appeared to come into the lead during the last vote count of the night. Lieberman had actually told Gore not to concede as things were pulling in.

Thus, trending numbers for a vote count is not evidence of a vote fraud in itself.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:41 AM
Response to Reply #277
279. Except that the election you are referring to was stolen also.
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SensibleAmerican Donating Member (460 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:47 AM
Response to Reply #279
283. But the Republicans were claiming ...
we were trying to steal the election as Bush had a large lead early in the initial part of the vote count. All I remember hearing was Gore hasn't taken the lead yet, which statistically didn't matter at all.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:50 AM
Response to Reply #283
285. And it was shown later that Gore had actually WON, if all the votes
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 03:50 AM by TheWatcher
had actually been COUNTED. The Supreme Court stopped all the counting, and installed your leader for you.

Do you have anything else for us?
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SensibleAmerican Donating Member (460 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:56 AM
Response to Reply #285
287. That's my point
Calderon sounds like the Gore of this election and Obrador sounds like Bush, in terms of how this election is turning out statistically.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:57 AM
Response to Reply #287
289. How so?
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 03:59 AM by TheWatcher
Before the recount started, Calderon was AHEAD.

Or did you miss that?

in the end it really doesn't matter.

Bush stole the 2000 and 2004 Elections, and Calderon (Bush's pet pick and personal favorite in this election) stole this one.

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SensibleAmerican Donating Member (460 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:17 AM
Response to Reply #289
305. You're missing what I'm saying entirely
What I'm saying has nothing to do with politics, just statistics.

They recounted this whole election from the beginning. The votes in the South and East were reported earlier than the votes in the North and the West. So naturally, Obrador is going to lead early because his stronger precincts were reported first.

The opposite of this happened on Sunday with the preliminary count. Calderon was ahead, and Obrador came from behind.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:20 AM
Response to Reply #305
306. Like I said, statistics really no longer matter in these affairs
When the results are pretty much pre-determined.

Read Palast's article on Choice Point and this Election.

This was STOLEN.

Just like Florida.

Just like Ohio.

The NeoCon Wet Dream of a North American Union is just about complete.

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beltanefauve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:41 AM
Response to Original message
278. I am up watching an election
getting stolen before my eyes. And getting that deja vu feeling.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:49 AM
Response to Reply #278
284. It was stolen long before tonight.
Like I said, you are merely watching their torturing and toying with the masses to give the illusion to these poor people that an actual election took place.

This is disgusting.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:42 AM
Response to Original message
280. PAN is announcing that Caldern will give an announcement within 30m nt
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:44 AM
Response to Reply #280
281. He will be in the lead in about 30 minutes.
How very convenient. I'm sorry, this is too obvious for me.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:45 AM
Response to Original message
282. 97.44%... 0.05%... nt
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:54 AM
Response to Original message
286. 97.51%... 0.03%... nt
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:56 AM
Response to Reply #286
288. Calderon has won.
He will overtake Obrador at around 98%.
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beltanefauve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:12 AM
Response to Reply #288
299. Just happened
at 97.70%
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 03:59 AM
Response to Original message
290. The table is set for the making of the "North American Union". nt
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 04:00 AM by Reckon
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:01 AM
Response to Reply #290
293. We are watching the beginning of the Great Endgame
For them, and for us.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:00 AM
Response to Original message
291. 97.58%... 0.02%... nt
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:02 AM
Response to Original message
294. 97.64%... 0.01%... nt
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:14 AM
Response to Reply #294
302. 97.77% .03 lead for Calderon.
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 04:15 AM by NYC
I can't believe I stayed up for this.

Next time, I ought to just go to bed. We all know what the outcome will be.
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beltanefauve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:07 AM
Response to Original message
295. Its happening again.
Watcher, you are so right.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:10 AM
Response to Reply #295
297. And I weep with that knowledge, my friend
I really do.

Once again, the interests of the people have been slaughtered by the narrow interests of a handful of Power Drunk Criminal Thugs.

How much longer are we going to take this?

And Open Question to the people of Canada, this country, and Mexico:

How much longer are we just going to sit and take this?

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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:07 AM
Response to Original message
296. 97.68%..... 35.6% PAN - 35.59% PRD ... 4100 vote lead for Caldern nt.
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 04:13 AM by arcos
It's over. :cry:
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:12 AM
Response to Reply #296
301. And THAT'S A WRAP! Another atrocity committed, Another Election Stolen
The interests of the people once again successfully raped and trampled by a handful of selfish, greedy, soulless thugs.

HOW MUCH LONGER?
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:11 AM
Response to Original message
298. Shouldn't someone ask why the score went directly down with every
new reading, and there were never any gains in any of the areas? That's just UNNATURAL.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:15 AM
Response to Reply #298
304. Of Course there should be, but we both know there won't be
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 04:16 AM by TheWatcher
I am becoming increasingly convinced that if we want to wrest power from these people, we will have to PHYSICALLY take it from them. FORCEFULLY and without quarter. I am no longer afraid of actually saying it.

It is time for Revolution.

It is time for these people to pay the price of their actions.

It is WAY past time.

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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:12 AM
Response to Original message
300. 97.77%... 0.03% for Caldern nt
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:15 AM
Response to Original message
303. 97.84%... 0.05% (Caldern)... nt
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:22 AM
Response to Original message
307. Remember what you saw tonight folks.
The American Version will be on your TV Sets about 4 months from now.
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:29 AM
Response to Reply #307
308. I know I'll never forget it.
I hope a multitude of people in Mexico were up all night, as well, and will be letting their reactions known in the morning.



I'll remember this, by George.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 04:42 AM
Response to Original message
309. 98.05%... 0.09% (Caldern)
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 04:42 AM by arcos
And off to bed... :cry:
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Marie26 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 08:36 AM
Response to Reply #309
312. Oh no
Edited on Thu Jul-06-06 08:43 AM by Marie26
I thought that Obrador could make a comeback. At the least, I hope this election doesn't cause political turmoil in Mexico.

One last update: Obrador- 35.39% Calderon - 35.80%, 99.39% of votes counted.
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 10:04 AM
Response to Reply #312
315. Political Turmoil?
Nobody cares. Nothing matters anymore. It's done.
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Marie26 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #315
316. I don't know about that
The Mexican Revolution was inspired by a stolen election.
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-06-06 10:03 AM
Response to Original message
314. I Predicted A Calderon .50% Win
Looks like it was dead on.

You didn't think they were going to let the Liberal win, did you?

As said above, get ready for the replay in a few months. You don't think they're going to let the Democrats win, do you?
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