Results from California 50 bode well for Dems in November

[WI_DEM]

That is how I see it. Here is a district where the GOP has a 15-point edge in registration in a predominately Democratic state. They have elected a Republican congressman from this district for decades even when Nixon was at his lowest. In the 2004 congressional election Democrat Busby lost by 22-points. That means alot of Independents and a few Democrats voted Republican that year. Now in the 2006 special election Busby loses by about 4-points--a reversal of 18-points. It also means that the Republican (who garnered under 50% of the vote) received most of his support from Republicans. Busby picked up substantial support from Independents. In a general election in the fall when presumably more people will vote Busby's narrow defeat can be reversed.

Now I'm not saying every GOP district will show a 18-point reversal since there were special circumstances in this election. But given the frustration over war, gas prices, and corruption in government and the way the nation is headed overall it doesn't seem unrealistic to believe that we could see a ten-point reversal in many Republican districts and if this is the case many Republican office holders even in districts which are considered solidly GOP will be in peril.

The Republicans spent millions in a district they should have taken for granted. The Democrats spent far less and almost won. The GOP can't afford this fall to put those kinds of dollars in every district especially ones which they shouldn't have to defend given their history and registration.

All in all, this was a good barometer of things to come, but it doesn't mean we can slacken up or take it for granted. Another good barometer (by the way) is the Tester victory in Montana. In its proportions it was unexpected and we now have the strongest possible candidate to go up against Conrad Burns.

[BillZBubb]

1. Wishful thinking.

If Busby would have won, I'd agree with you. The fact that she couldn't win given all that is known about the Repugs doesn't bode well for us. The pathetic turnout also spells bad news.

The reason is simple: She wasn't running against a Repug incumbent. It was an open seat. To do well, Dems will have to beat Repug incumbents. They'll get out their voters. It's a huge uphill fight to oust an incumbent.

The Democrats, as things currently stand, will pick up a few seats, but not enough to take the Congress back. I wouldn't be so sure of this if Busby had won.

[Duer 157099]

2. Low turnout in a Repub district is a bad thing? why?

Seems to me it's an indication that many of them might sit out November

[still_one]

4. if it was only repukes staying home that would be fine

but it isn't

[still_one]

3. it is the pathetic turnout that bothers me the most

people are going to pay for the consequences of their actions, and that includes not voting

[aquart]

6. Republicans stayed home. Not a problem for me.

[still_one]

14. so did Democrats

I am not in that area, but I know enough Democrats that didn't bother to vote in this election

[aquart]

16. and you encouraged them to stay home?

[still_one]

17. of course not, and I let them know that also

I have never missed voting in an election

Everywhere outside the U.S. a bad turnout is considered 65%, here we are luckey to get 20%

[Duer 157099]

18. I believe more Repubs stayed home than Dems

Take a look at the election results, and count up the votes on each side. You'll see what I mean.

Yes, of course, more people should vote, but (to paraphrase a major asshole) we go to the polls with the voters we have, not the voters we wished we had :)

[still_one]

19. you are right

[WI_DEM]

7. You need to look at the whole story

The Republican who ran is also a former congressman from the 90's. It is a hugely Republican district. If you think that Republicans had to spend $10 million to defend a seat which they should have taken for granted and have their candidate not even receive 50% of the vote is small potatoes which doesn't brighten Democratic hopes for retaking the house then you are a major pessimest. Not that there is anything wrong with that. As I say we can't lessen our efforts and we must run in every race like we're ten points down.

[aquart]

15. And, in November, Republicans have to shell out all over again.

As expensive as this "victory" was, they still have to fight to keep the seat in the regular election when they will be fighting on so many other fronts.

They got under 50% in a SAFE district.

[rooney]

8. Amen

[stepnw1f]

10. lol (nt)

[BillZBubb]

20. Laugh all you want, I saw the same misplaced optimism in 2004

Every two years we seem to see the return of hope over experience that clouds judgment. Given the current mess in this country, the fact that Bilbray won at all should frighten us. The fact that he did it with the immigrant issue should tell us a whole lot about the electorate and what will happen in a few months.

[stepnw1f]

22. and We Get to See Your Doom and Gloom

give me a break with the "don't get your hopes up". Hope reinforces ACTION. Without hope there is nothing. And the hope people are finding is in the nubers. THE FACTS... That's REALITY BASED.

your pessimism is based isn't. It's counter productive.

[WI_DEM]

23. I don't use hope over experience

I've studied and written on politics and understand the electoral process. This election does give me hope but the numbers are also impressive. I don't care for anecodotal evidence such as we had on DU in 2004--you know, "I heard this long time Republican say he will vote for Kerry", ect--but I do like the numbers in this election. If a long time Republican district where they lead voter registration by 15-points and where the GOP must spend millions to hold gives their candidate a four-point edge (under 50%) that is an excellent sign. You have to remember Busby was always the underdog in this election given the composition of the district. Believe it or not sometimes you win even when you lose and this is a case. I also think Busby has a good chance in November as well. There have been a string of elections this year which give me hope. Republican Assembly districts in NJ, VA and MN which went Democratic. The Tester vote in Montana where Tester received more votes statewide than Conrad Burns and won by a larger than expected margin and this special election in a stronly GOP district where our candidate came within four-points of winning even when she was vastly outspent and out registered by the Republicans.

[BillZBubb]

27. I'm afraid you do.

In 2004 Kerry got just about the same percentage of the vote in CA-50 as Busby got yesterday. So, we are not seeing a huge swing there, contrary to all the wishful thinking.

It's going to be even harder in districts where there is an incumbent Repug rep. So, Busby's failure should be a wakeup call, not a source of claims to moral victory. Bilbray played the immigrant card, Busby went with repug corruption. You can bet the repugs will use Bilbray's game plan in the fall.

[aquart]

5. I completely agree with you.

DU seems to be under an orchestrated troll attack today. But Democrats have been taking special elections all over the nation for the last two years. To come so close in CA-50, a Republican safe seat, has to be giving the Republican party leaders nightmares. They spent $5 million for Bilbray and they don't have Cunningham and Abramoff funneling money to them anymore.

[WI_DEM]

9. Exactly! state assembly or Senate special elections don't get

wide exposure from the media but Democrats have won virtually every special election for a state senate or assembly seat in the last two years even in GOP districts. That too is very encouraging.

[skipos]

11. Agreed. nt

[stepnw1f]

12. Things Look Verrry Good for Dems

Don't listen to the trolls saying different. Just keep working hard.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

13. Obviously.

Never mind the naysayers.

[JCMach1]

21. Computer gerrymandering may yet save GOP control

I am still pessismistic about Dem chances because of that...

[SheilaT]

24. I'm sorry, but the fact that Busby lost

is simply insurmountable. If a Democrat couldn't win when the incumbent resigned in disgrace, then it's hard to imagine Democrats defeating real incumbents.

I'd like to think Democrats will win big this November, but it's really hard to imagine that happening. Especially with results like this.

[WI_DEM]

25. It is discouraging but unfortunately it wasn't the GOP incumbent who

resigned in disgrace who was on ballot. But I respect your feelings and if you feel and hopefully will work hard for a Democratic victory in November.

[WI_DEM]

26. kick