Those who thought the immigration debate was a Rovian trick...

[WilliamPitt]

...were wrong. Dig it:



Look at that. Stare at it. Let your eyes drift down to the box in the lower left corner. That's 26%. 26%.

26%.

I said this a while back but it got drowned out: the rise of the immigration debate was the single worst thing, at the single worst moment, that could have happened to the GOP coalition. It is the San Andreas fault line between the business conservatives and the movement/fundie conservatives. When this issue came up, that fault line slipped, and we are still rocking and rolling from the aftershocks.

The business conservatives, of course, want an ocean of super-cheap labor they don't have to offer health care bennies to, so they wanted the Senate bill. The movement/fundie conservatives want a thousand foot wall built around the country, and every undocumented worker sent away in leg irons, and so they backed the Sensenbrenner bill in the House. These two positions are totally irreconcilable, and unutterably dangerous to the GOP.

The business conservatives provide the cash, so they are essential to the coalition. The movement/fundie conservatives provide the blood, sweat and fanatacism that has helped a minority party achieve near-total political dominance, so they are essential to the coalition. Now they are at each other's throats, and Bush's weirdly aerobic straddle on the issue pacified neither side.

26%.

Remember Pat Buchanan? He ate Bush Sr.'s lunch in the New Hampshire primary in 1992, and split the right with the help of Ross. Pat came back again and broke Dole's whole show into tiny splinters, in the same state, in 1996. Both Bush and Dole spent waaaaaay more than they could afford fending off Pat, and wound up as meat on the slab when the deal finally went down.

Both times, Pat was demagoguing for the movement/fundy position on immigration. This issue can shatter this coalition, and has deeply undermined it already. And it isn't going away.

This isn't about what I think of the immigration issue. This is a straight political analysis.

This debate should be celebrated. Not because of the content, but because it is happening in the first place.



Dig it.

[proud patriot]

1. a beauty to behold

:-)

[cantstandbush]

31. But in the end, the Rethugs will come together to defeat any Dem.

The only way they can lose is to stay home. The funddies will be out in force to support anything Israel and end-times and Bush has a lock on this.

Only a well informed, honest, courageous Dem can bring the party together around a few simple issues that are important to this nation...and I don't see one yet.

[ananda]

2. It also appears that ..

.. the media is contributing to the way the public is meant to view the immigration debate, making it a divisive issue in order to drive up ratings. They do this with everything and everybody in politics, including Tom DeLay. You'd think Tom DeLay would be a dead issue by now... but the media keeps trying to keep reviving that dead dog... and DeLay's crazee rw supporters keep having fundraisers and giving him money. And then there's the way the corporate-controlled anchors talk about and report on the "prezident," as if he deserved so much respect and molly coddling reporting.

The whole thing just makes me sick.

Sue

[Ms. Clio]

3. yes, I agree

Bush a loser on yet another issue.

It's a beautiful thing.

[Swamp Rat]

4. Maybe it was a 'Rovian Trick' gone bad?

He's been busy, you know. :D

[stevedeshazer]

5. If this is a Rovian trick, it's the worst one ever

Thanks for the reminder about Pat, the last Republican to divide that party.

Just for reference, I'm a truck driver, so I listen to a lot of right wing radio.

All they talk about are immigration and gas prices. It's more than interesting that those issues are Bush's weakest areas of support according to this survey.

It says that his base is turning against him.

'Bout damn time. :grr:

[leftstreet]

6. But Bush is pushing a guest worker program

Unlike the Senselessbrenner bill.

So why the low poll numbers?

:shrug:

[northzax]

8. no one wants a guest worker program

except big business. and there really aren't that many of them to raise the poll numbers...

[leftstreet]

10. McCain-Kennedy is a guest worker program

with path to citizenship.

The only difference is that Bush wants "guests" to work a few years, and then leave.

I find the poll numbers odd, given that both Bush and McCain-Kennedy are using the term "guest worker program."

[northzax]

12. if there is a path for citizenship

then it's not really a 'guest worker' program, it's more of a immigration program.

[leftstreet]

13. I agree

I just don't think the Dems realize how they've shot themselves in the foot over this issue.

Most teevee viewers haven't the slightest idea of what any of the bills contain. And since the corporate media always reduce things to either/or, people hear this debate within the rigid framework of guest-worker (or amnesty or whatever) v deport/arrest them.

It's a political nightmare, and these poll numbers reflect that.

[stevedeshazer]

9. Simple math

The number of "guest worker" employers (the Investor Class) is much lower than the number of social conservatives.

[Autonomy]

7. Bush is a sacrificial lamb on this issue

He's not running again, so it's no loss to the Repubs. But Repub congresspersons can rile up their districts on the issue without the burden of actually having to produce results... because the bad president and the even worse Democrats are part of the problem.

Maybe that's conspiracy theory (read: too clever to be true) as far as forethought is concerned, but I guarantee that that's the way they're going to play it, and it could work for them (Repubs). They get to play the mavericks. Isn't that what they want when they have an unpopular president?

[NewJeffCT]

24. That is my thought as well

"Look, we're against the president on this issue!"

[cascadiance]

50. This was my thought too...

Immigration is one issue that the Dems aren't unified against Bush. There are many ways to look at it and their isn't a clear way to stand when we want to help Mexican and other foreign workers who are in dire straits when their own countries don't take care of them, but many of us don't feel we should be sacrificing our own jobs and livlihood to do so when corporations profit. How to solve it? There's not a real good simplistic solution. Rove will want to appeal to the Rethug base that there is, and use it to help the congressional Rethugs in their coming races perhaps at Bush's expense, if they know he's already in the toilet anyway.

[babylonsister]

11. So immigration won't win the day for the blivet. Thanks for pointing

that out. Perhaps his whole ineptitude might change hearts and minds!

[WiseButAngrySara]

14. I agree with your analysis, after you supplied the brain work! And it is

beautiful! What are Buchanan's current views on immigration?

[Nostradammit]

15. If the business conservatives own the voting machines and the media

do they even need the movement/fundie conservatives anymore?

I'm hoping they do, but how much longer can they keep the charade of honest elections going?

[Kolesar]

16. off topic ... eom

[Peace Patriot]

18. I agree with Nostradammit. It's not an "issue"--it's a narrative...

...like "gay marriage/abortion"--a way to explain the miraculous turnaround for the Bushite Congress in November.

It doesn't matter if it makes sense. Nothing the Bush junta or its war profiteering corporate news monopoly cheerleaders say makes any sense.

Bushite corporations now own the vote count in this country, with 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code and virtually no audit/recount controls--and are hanging onto that power with tooth and claw wherever it is challenged.

It's going to be a lo-o-o-ong fight to get our democracy back--beginning with the mechanism of our sovereignty: our right to vote.

We will win, in the end. But it's not going to be easy.

I think they're setting us up for a fall--for an utterly crushing, demoralizing, depressing and disempowering defeat in November. We think '04 was bad, as to demoralization? We battered them on new voter registration in '04, nearly 60/40. We created the biggest turnout in election history. And we won. All day long we won, until late in the day when the Diebold/ES&S numbers got fed through an AP computer to the news monopolies, and they "adjusted" their "consortium" exit polls (Kerry won) to 'fit' the results of Diebold/ES&S's secret formulae (Bush won). And the worst of it was the crushing demoralization of the American people, who had at last risen up to oust the Bush junta.

2006 could be worse. They want to smash us now, really smash us--completely kick down the rising revolt, so that we never get back on our feet as a free people.

Frankly, I don't think Bush/Cheney's numbers were much better in November '04 than they are now. I think the illusions and delusions we are being subjected to are THAT manipulative. So, watch the numbers rise, as we approach November; when they will "peak" at 50/50, with no significant gains for the Dems in Congress.

And that's where the "narratives" come in--the fictions that Karl Rove spends sweaty nights thinking up. The 'reasons' why they won. I can hear it echoing now, through the etheric realms of corporate delusion-ville.

He could be in prison by then, however. Or at least indicted, and in a heap of trouble. And with THAT "talent" gone, who will spin the spin?

Anyway, my guess is that they figured they can't lose by stirring up hatred against brown people. It makes a feasible-sounding 'narrative.' People just trusted Republicans more, to stem the awful brown tide.

It's baloney, of course. Who cares about the Mexicans cutting your lawn, with gasoline at $4 a gallon, medical insurance taking half your wages--if you have any wages--and a $9 TRILLION federal deficit?

I'm just sayin'--that's what they're going to say. The trouble with Will's thesis is that he expects these people to make sense.

[Kolesar]

17. A wall at the border &prosecutions of employers would improve his* poll #s

Even in Ohio, where we have scant immigration, my conservative professional coworkers see the employers of the undocumented immigrants as the villans.

[Disturbed]

19. "Bush wants "guests" to work a few years, and then leave."

Yeah, sure they will leave.

It seems that even though Busholini never said that Illegal Immigrants and anyone harboring or helping them whould be charged with a felony, he is still taking the heat for the Sensenbrenner Bill.

Are most Dems backing the McLame/Kennnedy Bill?

[Bridget Burke]

51. There will never be a wall along the Border.

How do you build a wall in the middle of a river?

[Kolesar]

55. ROFL

[Hekate]

20. Nice. Very, very nice. Thanks for the analysis, Will. nt

[Disturbed]

21. Margaret Mead was right.

The Neo Fascists along with the Fundies Xtians and Muslim extremists have changed the world. For the better?

[Hekate]

59. But then, there's also us. Take heart. nt

[rman]

22. Doesn't mean it's not a trick

It may just be that it didn't work as well as they hoped it would.

Isn't it odd that there are such large demonstrations which are well covered by the MSM, for an issue that has so little support?

[many a good man]

23. Celebrate??? This is a DISASTER for Dems!

Bush's plan for a guest worker program with amnesty and a path to citizenship is much closer to anything we might propose than the Sensenbrenner plan.

Only 26% of Americans! That means the majority likely favor a harsh punitive crackdown. If this becomes a main issue in the campaigns it threatens both our base (low income households) and the "anxious middle" (the ones we need to court to achieve majority). If too many dems come down on the tough side it threatens our share of the Latino vote. And Hispanics will represent the real power player in national electoral politics in the decades to come.

Its not just xenophobes and racists that want to crack down on immigration, as we've seen here on DU. American populists have a long tradition of opposition to immigrant labor because of its depressing affect on wages. This issue threatens to split our coalition just as much as theirs.

I'm afraid the MSM will drown out the thoughtful and nuanced REAL solution to the problem: framing it as a labor law enforcement issue. That is, if we can even find Dem leaders willing to put forth such a vision. Furthermore, such talk would dry up contributions from the "monied interests" that donate to campaigns, thus making it so much harder to get our real message out to the masses.

With two more years left for the pathetic Bush regime the economic situation is only going to worsen for the working class. This will increase anxiety and lead to further hardening of opinions. This poll number should make all Democrats shudder, not celebrate.

[Carni]

27. You see the issue much like I do

I have been thinking since the get go that the repukes will use this as a wedge issue to keep control in the fall.

If 76% of people are against bush's guest worker thing, they (the repukes) could turn around and frame the issue like it was the Democrats who wanted the guest worker thing all along (God knows the public has a very short memory)

If the working people are still struggling with falling wages (and I don't see how they won't be--myself included) they are just going to get more and more angry and if they think Dem candidates endorse or want yet MORE cheap labor floating around...they could take it out on the Dem reps come November.

Just my 2 cents but I think you and I are on the same page here

[Critters2]

45. And all they need to do is read a little DU

to find Dems who do support cheap labor and open borders. We need to support workers and better wages, and be clear about it!!

[Carni]

56. Ooops my title made no sense--edited

I go back and forth on this illegals thing and I certainly don't have any answers but something needs to happen to get wages back up into reality based territory (whether they stay or not)

Hopefully the issue just sort of dies out until after the elections-- maybe the media will find something else to blather about (I hope so but I doubt it!)

[cascadiance]

53. Yes, the Dems really need to think this one out and not be "split" on it.

This is one area where we don't see unity, and I think many Dems aren't really sure about their positions, because from many of the constituents' point of view, the two most well known proposed solutions, Bush's guest worker program, and the more draconion "let's build a wall and criminalize illegal immigrants" xenophobic solution are BOTH wrong!

We need to come up with a third solution that is well thought out and something isn't overly complex that average people can understand and see that it works for them. Something that emphasizes:

1) less criminalization of the illegals themselves and MORE criminalization of those that would hire them to dry up demand and force these illegals themselves to do the jobs of moving themselves back out of the country to other places where they would get a job legally (saves us the expense of having to round them up and hauling them over the border ourselves).
2) come up with an ID card that would be like newer U.S. currency very difficult if not impossible to forge that would help establish identity but not implemented in a way to facilitate those seeking to centralize domestic spying database info on all of us. This would enable the employers who wish to follow the law appropriately a means to do so without getting in trouble with the tougher rules.
3) Do NOT build a wall to separate us and Mexico. This would be expensive to build and to staff with border patrols, and would only serve to create more animosity towards those on the other side like the Berlin wall and the Apartheid wall going up in Israel is doing. If there's a way to prevent illegals getting jobs by going after the employers, this will be less necessary anyway.
4) Have a way (through treaties or the WTO or other efforts) to pressure Vincente Fox and other countries to institute real reform of their economy to start building a middle class of jobs there. The next time there is a planned protest by illegals in our country, what might be interesting (though perhaps dangerous for us), might be for us to go protest in front of Mexican government buildings with signs saying "Feed your People!", "Give Mexicans a living wage!", and perhaps "Our jobs are not yours to take!". Though without our laws to protect our rights of speech down there, that might be impossible to do. Perhaps do it towards the Mexican embassy in the U.S. instead if no safe way can be done here.
5) Streamline the path for those who've worked hard to really immigrate here to do so but keep it in controlled numbers so that our labor force isn't overrun by people moving in. Don't make it overly complicated, but set up a set of decent rules so that we only get those that truly want to be citizens here, not those that just want a cheap job.

If you could wrap this up into a package that's easy for people to understand that is for American AND Mexican workers and about keeping the integrity of our country's borders, then we might profit from it rather than suffer from the xenophobic voters on the other side that try to frame it as a battle between them and Bush's guest worker program, both of which SUCK!

[Rose Siding]

33. "What most Democrat officials do not back is Bush's guest-worker plan"

snip>
Outlining differences in the major parties, Dean pointed to immigration. He said that if, as he expects, Democrats take control of Congress after this year's elections, they will push for more border-security personnel to be hired. And they'll push for a path to citizenship for those now in the country.

What most Democrat officials do not back is Bush's guest-worker plan, he said.

"We don't need to bring any more workers in," he said.

http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/news/nation/14539950.htm

[Bridget Burke]

52. Bush's guest worker plan offers NO amnesty....

He wants temporary workers only, with no chance for legal residency or citizenship. Since they will be "registered" they can be deported if they get "uppity." That is, ask for more or threaten to unionize.

Bush & his pals will talk tuff. His supporters will enjoy a brief spike in their testosterone levels. But his aim is to let in (1) illegal workers who must continue to hide and/or (2) temporary workers with no future in the USA.

Legal workers would ask for more & unionize. (Latin America has a strong history of labor activism.) US workers would benefit, too--especially if their unions take part.

Not all of those who oppose immigration show xenophobia & racism. But some do--even at DU.

[Carni]

57. Some of what you say above dawned on me yesterday

I think bushit's *guest worker* scenario is even worse than blanket amnesty for every Tom Dick and Harry out there...I am opposed to all the plans that I have heard so far, but I agree with your points above 100%

IMO once again *'s total lack of oversight on this issue (and everything else) has just created mass chaos and havoc--everything he touches turns out this way.

[Roland99]

25. That doesn't mean it's not a Rovian ploy.

Look at how much media attention it garnered while some major scandal news was breaking.

Look at the pushing of the "horrors" of polygamy now smothering us from NBC, MSNBC, CNN, etc.

Anything to distract.

[Lerkfish]

42. Actually, what PROVES to me this was administration-orchestrated

was the apparent lack of riot police during the demonstrations.

[NNN0LHI]

26. It was the demonstrations that did it

My racist parents were horrified to see millions of brown folks in the streets. It scared the crap out of them. That is the truth.

Don

[aikoaiko]

28. yeah, but it low because of amnesty and worker programs.

:shrug:

[The Backlash Cometh]

29. I said the same before.

But a word of caution here to the Democrats. Tread carefully with this immigration issue because you'll find the same fault lines on the left. Democrats are just as upset about the loss of jobs and the argument that illegal immigrants don't take American jobs is not selling.

[mondo joe]

30. Agreed. I think this is where we need a Bill Clinton like consensus

builder - or finder. I don't think the consensus solution will satisfy manny at the political ends of the spectrum but may carry the middle.

[Solon]

32. I think the debate should be celebrated myself, but for different reasons.

For it is actually being brought out into the open. My problem is the framing of the debate, the problem is that those debating this problem are making it a PEOPLE issue rather than a ECONOMIC and Worker's Rights issue as it actually is. Similar to how abortion is handled, the Repubs frame it as a moral debate, the Democrats frame it as a Civil Rights debate.

We need to examine what policies of the US government encourage or discourage the rate of illegal immigration into this nation. We need to examine that first before we do anything. We need to see what policies actually dramatically increased illegal immigration, mostly from Mexico, though from other nations as well, and also see what we can do to STOP it. The Sennsenbrenner plan is nonsensical, all it would do is lock up a shitload of people for no good reason, while at the same time not slowing down illegal immigration in the least. The Bush plan is the "revolving door" plan, where they get the guest worker status, then leave when the term is up, and then come back without bother applying, its not a solution at all. The Hillary plan is not much better, making it a one way door instead, but still wouldn't stem the tide of illegal immigration in the least. The problem is that no one seems to be examining WHY these people are so desparate to actually risk death or imprisonment to leave their countries in the first place.

What factors cause people to pack up and leave their homes with nothing more than the clothes on their back to risk getting shot or to die of dehydration just to get a job?

[Beetwasher]

34. Yup! Where Oh Where Will His Bottom Be???

No one knows. What a disaster. What a failure. I truly didn't think it possible, but I do think he's going to hit the 20's. His solid base is freaking, and when they turn, they get NASTY.

[rniel]

35. Howard dean said it a long time ago

That republicans were going to be bringing up this issue to stay in power. I think it was their idea, but it didn't work out like they thought it would.

[1932]

36. I saw Pat Robertson on the 700 Club sounding Christian for first time ever

on the issue of immigration.

It's funny that the only reason he was being charitable was because he's actually a business conservative.

[Jim Warren]

38. Ummm maybe

or maybe only because fundy evangelicalism is the fastest growing faith in Latin America.

[tjwash]

37. Yes, and as usual, we will piss all of this away as well.

Watch how many Dems go out and vote for a third party candidate like Nader again in 2008 just to prove a point, and it will probably give McCain or Jeb that 3 or 4 votes that they need to steal a state and push them over the top.

[Critters2]

46. If the number of third party voters is enough to lose us an election

we might consider listening to their concerns and addressing them. But no, we'll follow the DLC right into defeat yet again, and bitch about the lefties who vote Green. Again.

[sendero]

39. Nothing succeeds like success, nothing fails like failure..

.... Rove has played all his cards. In his desparation to find another wedge issue, let's hope he hands up another loser like this :)

[Yollam]

40. I concur that it was a GOP ploy that backfired.

After all, this issue works against both parties, because most people have figured out that BOTH parties have ZERO intention of ever making any meaningful changes in the flow of cheap illegal labor for their fat cat contributors.

I think both parties' positions on this are reprehensible. Dems want to give amnesty to people who should be deported, the GOP wants to make them felons (but doesn't REALLY want to enforce the law), and Bush wants to make them into sub-minimum-wage slaves with work permits. Isn't it odd that none of these three have a position that matches the wishes of the VAST MAJORITY of Americans, which is simply that illegals be deported, the border be better enforced, and companies that create the problem by hiring illegals be punished?

And as long as the wealthy elite and corporations run this country and both parties, that will continue to be so.

[Critters2]

47. Amen!! Well said!!

:applause:

[dad]

49. 3 cheers for Yollam!

Both parties have their head up theis asses on this issue.
1. illegals be deported
2. the border be better enforced
3. companies that create the problem by hiring illegals be punished

haven't heard that from any politician

[Lerkfish]

41. it might STILL have been rovian in concept, but the actuality veered

out of control.
However, I agree with everything else you brought up

[Marr]

43. Well, to be fair- the "genius" Rove does fuck up quite a bit.

I wasn't one of the people who believed it was some Rovian trick, but I'm just saying- this is the "Heckuva Job, Brownie" crew.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

44. My vote: Rovian trick that did not have the intended result.

[leftofthedial]

48. most of Rove's tricks have backfired lately

[IselaB]

54. George W. Bush isn't up for reelection

And his numbers on that issue are so low because he's not taken a strong enough stand AGAINST illegal immigrants.

Mark my words, immigration will be this year's gay marriage. It's the one hope the Republicans have for energizing and mobilizing their base. They will be very happy if, come November, everybody is talking about immigration instead of gas prices, Iraq, whores, etc.

Max Udargo sums it up well in his latest blog entry: http://www.udargo.com/mub/index.html

[Jigarotta]

58. still could be a Rovian trick...

considering his situation, maybe the trick is on *.

tee hee.

[Dave Reynolds]

60. It makes no difference.

If the border is closed, there is a vast sea of unemployed workers with outsourced jobs already here.

But wait, I forget what a "booming economy" we have....

[Festivito]

61. W being alienated from GOP. Blame on W. W's done! GOP returns?

Subtle difference, asking how GWB is handling, and not RepubliCONs in general.

The meme is that all the problems belong to W, the new candidate is different...

[loyalsister]

62. I knew it wasn't

It's the Democratic "Southern Strategy." Sadly, the state Democrats in MO were on top of it early this year. It exploits racism and it's cynical.