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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-25-06 08:09 AM
Original message
Ernesto
Not officially named yet, but will be. This is one to look out for. Heads up, Gulf Coast!

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rabid_nerd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-25-06 11:48 AM
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1. HEADS UP: Hurricane Ernesto may loom as Anniversary of Katrina Nears
Definately... You beat me to it...

HEADS UP: Hurricane Ernesto may loom as Anniversary of Katrina Nears

Tropical Depression Five is not that impressive now, but the current National Weather Service Discussion suggests that "Hurricane Ernesto" could be a Category 2 (or possibly Category 3) hurricane as it passes the Western end of Cuba, entering the southern Gulf of Mexico, heading north, where it could potentially gain even more strength.

National Weather Service Discussion: (Underline and emphasis mine)
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERHAPS BECOMING LESS TRICKY. THELARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THEUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARDAND ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERNCARIBBEAN. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEENKNOWN TO MOVE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TOO QUICKLY WESTWARD...IT WOULDREDUCE THE CURRENT 15-20 KT SHEAR AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLEENVIRONMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME AHURRICANE IN ABOUT 60 HR AND REACH 87 KT BY 120 HR. GIVEN THEUNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE NEWINTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST...CALLING FORTHE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR DECREASES AS MUCH AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TOINVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDSTHE CENTER IN A DIFFERENT LOCATION...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THEFORECAST TRACK COULD BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

http://www.dynaweather.com/blog/
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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-25-06 07:12 PM
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2. It's going to be an interesting week
Folks here in Biloxi are already nervous. The tracks will be shifting back and forth until they drive everyone crazy.
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