New study suggests how toads might predict earthquakes

[n2doc]

The trouble with earthquakes, other than their obvious devastation, is that thus far they have proved to be very nearly impossible to predict, despite considerable effort towards that goal; being able to do so would obviously save a lot of lives. Also, despite the fact that there is literally hundreds, if not thousands of years of anecdotal evidence suggesting that some animals may have some innate ability to predict quakes, modern research has instead been steadfastly focused on studying the Earth, rocks, faults, etc.

That may change now that biologist Rachel Grant, from the UK’s Open University has found evidence that toads can predict a quake up to several days before the ground starts shaking. She’s teamed up with NASA geophysicst, Friedemann Freund and the two of them, as they describe in their paper in the Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, suggest that it might all be because of changes to the pond water in which the toads are living.

Grant was studying the toads that lived in a pond near L'Aquila, Italy, in 2009 in the days just before a devastating earthquake struck. In those few days just before it happened, she noted that the toads began leaving. Their numbers dwindled from just under a hundred, to zero, causing her to write about her observations in the Journal of Zoology. That caught the attention of Freund, who was doing work for NASA in studying what happens to rocks when put under extreme stress, as in say, when an earthquake is in the making. He contacted Grant, and the two of them began investigating ways that such rock pressure could impact the environment where the toads lived.

After some experiments in the lab, the two write that when rocks underground come under pressure as a result of geological processes, they let off charged particles. Such particles can very quickly rise to and above the surface of the Earth, impacting such things as pond water and the biological material in it. In the case of the pond in Italy, it seems the toads may have been reacting to changes they felt in the water itself as ions interacting with it react to form minute amounts of hydrogen peroxide. Or it seems possible that ions interacting with organic material in the pond caused substances to be released that either were toxic or less ominously, simply irritating. Either way, it would explain their sudden exodus.

more

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-12-toads-earthquakes.html

[Davis_X_Machina]

1. It's not widely known....

...but sheeps' bladders can be used to prevent them.

[librechik]

2. in other news, sadly we have killed all the toads.

(future news spot)

[asjr]

3. I had no idea Chuck Toad was clairvoyant.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

4. As someone who lives in a seismic hot bed --

I find this fascinating and hope they continue their research. The chances are VERY good The BIg One is going to hit in my lifetime, and getting a few days notice could say a whole bunch of lives.

[SheilaT]

5. Back in the 1960's or 1970's, the Chinese

looked very carefully at animal indicators of earthquakes. And they got one right, supposedly. In 1975 they evacuated the city of Haicheng a day before a major earthquake there, and it was said at the time (I recall the news stories) that it was animal indicators that made them do that. According to Wikipedia, there had already been foreshocks.

A year later a worse earthquake hit Tangshen with no warning whatsoever.

This toad thing is interesting, but it's only going to be useful, I suspect, in areas where those toads are already living. It hardly seems practical to place many thousands of toads all around the world and monitor them continuously for earthquake prediction behavior.

From what I think I know of plate tectonics and earthquakes, I seriously doubt there will every be any kind of early warning system any better than we now have for tornadoes.