Early Derby Picks

[Justpat]

At the moment, I'm big on Quality Road, with Papa Clem, General Quarters and Fresian Fire to round
out the top four.

What do you think?

[aaronbees]

1. I like Pioneerof the Nile a lot

I love his stride and ease. He was the horse I really had my eye on before The Pamplemousse came along. Pioneer keeps finding ways to win that are counter to his preferred running style of resting back and making one big run. He hasn't been flashy lately but works for the win to the tune of 4 graded stakes in a row. He'll get knocked for his speed figures but I think synthetics out West are not given their due on the numbers. First reports are Pioneer glides over Churchill's track and he's taken to the surface. Plus, Baffert has to have some hunger for another Triple Crown shot. So, Pioneer is my official Derby horse. Second is Quality Road, and it's hard not to give him the top spot. I'll round out the top five with Friesian Fire, I Want Revenge, and Desert Party. Nice longshot picks: Musket Man, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, and Hold Me Back.

[Justpat]

2. I heard from a reporter this morning

that Quality Road has another quarter crack, so that changes things a lot.

Even if they patch it up, I still don't think a horse can put out a great effort on patched feet.

I'll have to rethink all this.

Also, if Pioneer of the Nile likes the dirt as much as they say, then he is very tough.

General Quarters has a an easy breeze the other day but was reported to have pulled himself up before
he wen the next eighth. Not what you want to see.

[aaronbees]

6. I agree on patching the feet...

A second quarter crack one this close just seems too much ... a horse has to be 100 percent to get to wear the Roses. Why is Quality Road getting all these quarter cracks? I'll have to rework my Top Five then.

[bread_and_roses]

3. Let's see....picks...and btw, BH video on Grindstone is a pleasure

I'm completely taken with General Quarters and Musket Man, but the one who's really captured my imagination the most is I Want Revenge. I also like Dunkirk and Quality Road (that is bad news about the quarter crack, and I was sorry also to read what you wrote of General Quarters....).

Hard not to be impressed by Pioneer of the Nile - he's a handsome fellow,too - and if I can get past his sire I might like him a lot - but I probably can't, unless he wins, then I guess I'll have to root for him to stay the whole course. So much more fun with a Crown on the line.

Of course, I've liked Friesan Fire since he started, and though his name is boring, there's something about Win Willy I like too.

I'm sure I forgot some. The only two I would be actively disappointed to see win would be the Sheik's horses.

That Grindstone is a handsome stallion, and the brief clip of him running and prancing it up a bit in the paddock is well worth watching the video for.

[Justpat]

4. I feel the same about the sheik's horses.

Also feel that way about Baffert. Can't help it.

[Justpat]

5. Results of Withers Stake

Mr. Fantasy
This Ones for Phil
Gone Astray


Doug O'Neill's Supreme Summit tried to get out of Dodge the whole way. Went to the front, went to the outside, stayed in front for a half,
then tried to go to the outside fence through the stretch.


Just a Coincidence fourth.

[aaronbees]

7. Two workout links

Contender workout vids at KD135 site: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/videos/works
Mike Welsch daily reports (on video): http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/clocker/clocker.html

I love watching the works the week before the Derby. Welsch says the Dubai duo looked good this morning.

[Justpat]

8. Thanks for the links.

I forgot about those. I'll watch them when I get home today.

[Justpat]

9. Quality Road will not run

and Fresian Fire will start in the Derby but will be nowhere. He breezed this morning at Churchill 5/8 in 57.4
Unless he is the second coming of Secretariat or Slew, he will fold up at the quarter pole like a card table.

[aaronbees]

10. Didn't Hard Spun fire a freaky bullet work like that....

prior to the Derby? Not sure about that but I seem to recall HS pulling a similar move. I don't like the 7 weeks between races for Friesan Fire. Shame about Quality Road but wise call. I think a lot of money goes to I Want Revenge now.

Edited to add: Zenyatta is going to race Friday at Chuchill in the Louisville Distaff. Her and Rachel Alexandra on the same day. That is awesome.

[Justpat]

11. can't wait to see the girls at Churchill.

Hard Spun did work fast prior to the Derby and finished second. Funny Cide worked like that before the Belmont and didn't quite get there.

A good horse will work 5/8 in a minute or so, but that is way too fast even for
a good horse. I think it squeezes the lemon just enough to make a difference on race day.

[aaronbees]

12. "She's the greatest horse I've ever been on in my life"

Calvin Borel about Rachel Alexandra. That was some performance today in the Oaks. I think the colts who run tomorrow should be thankful Hal Wiggins declined to run her in the Derby.

[Justpat]

13. Spectacular.

what else can you say

[Justpat]

14. I Want Revenge to be scratched

www.bloodhorse.com lead story


He has some kind of physical problem.

[aaronbees]

15. What a wild week ....

of scratches. That's two favorites out of the race within a week. Hope to see IWR and Joe Talamo back on the track soon.

My new top 5: Pioneerof the Nile (to win), Friesan Fire, and then Desert Party for the trifecta; and then Chocolate Candy and Dunkirk to round out the first five in today's Derby.

[Justpat]

16. I did not have IWR in my top four to start with.

Mullins is a phony trainer with a history of getting the job done the wrong way.


Today I'm going with: Pioneer of the Nile, Papa Clem, General Quarters, Desert Party.


Mr.Hot Stuff is my longshot pick.

[aaronbees]

17. I sure don't feel bad for Mullins

Talamo, yeah, but not Mullins. Maybe a little karma at work for him today. You have a good list. I've been reading good things about Desert Party all week and heard General Quarters is jumping out of his skin. I hope it's an exciting race.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. It's like I'm 8 years old

No idea. I'll inherit the race without knowing a thing about any of the horses. I watched the Florida Derby but that was it.

I won't be able to watch the race live, also the first time in 40+ years. Memorial service for my dad's long time friend at 4:30. It's been that type of year.

Anyway, in normalcy it looks like I would have studied plenty of horses who never made it to the starting gate. Regardless, I've enjoyed the pre-Derby coverage on ESPN and I hope it's a great race. :)