REVISED: Free Press article--CONNALLY DID NOT GET MORE VOTES

[dewaldd]

CONNALLY DID NOT GET MORE VOTES!!!!!!!!!!!!!


It has been revised to clarify the margin issue. Enjoy chewing on this...

Quoted from: http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/944

By suspicious, Jackson is referring to the latest analysis of the Nov. 2 vote by a coalition of Ohio voting rights activists. In analyzing the still-unofficial results, the totals reveal that C. Ellen Connally, an African-American Democratic candidate from Cleveland for Ohio Chief Justice, received more than 257,000 votes than Kerry. (Editor's note: Rev. Jackson was referring to Connally's margin of votes as a benchmark, not actual more votes. Jackson was referring to margin calculations instead of actual votes. In Butler County, Connally the Democrat received 59,532 running against Republican Chief Justice Moyer who received 66,625 votes. Connally received 5347 more votes than Kerry. To calculate the margin referred to in this article, take the difference between the total votes Connally and Moyer received (X) then take the difference between the total votes Kerry and Bush received (Y). Subtract X from Y and you have the margin. For example, in Butler County, the difference between Connally and Moyers's votes was 7093. Bush received 106,735 votes and Kerry received 54,185 votes, with a difference of 52,550. Subtracting 7093 from 52,550 equals 45,457. See below for details.*)


*Chart of the measurement of margin between Connally and Kerry race

A negative sign immediately below means that the margin for Kerry (in his race) was less than the margin for Connally (in her race) by the indicated amount. All counties where Connally's margin exceeded Kerry's by 2,000 votes or more should be on this list. There are 37 such counties.

County Margin Voting system
Adams -2,299 punch card
Allen -4,579 optical scan
Auglaize -6,592 DRE
Brown -4,363 punch card
Butler -45,457 punch card
Champaign -2,252 punch card
Clermont -22,998 optical scan
Clinton -3,429 punch card
Crawford -2,891 punch card
Darke -6,549 punch card
Defiance -2,050 punch card
Delaware -10,431 punch card
Fairfield -4,104 punch card
Geauga -4,433 optical scan
Greene -9,480 punch card
Hamilton -16,289 punch card
Hancock -5,424 optical scan
Highland -3,588 punch card
Holmes -2,393 punch card
Lawrence -2,567 punch card
Licking -6,265 punch card
Logan -3,610 punch card
Madison -2,394 punch card
Medina -3,768 punch card
Mercer -7,127 punch card
Miami -8,869 optical scan
Morrow -2,057 punch card
Pickaway -2,587 DRE
Preble -3,077 punch card
Putnam -5,327 punch card
Richland -3,464 punch card
Shelby -7,544 punch card
Stark -7,300 punch card
Union -2,339 punch card
Warren -24,785 punch card
Washington -2,203 optical scan
Williams -2,662 punch card


In counties listed above, the total margin for Connally (in her race) exceeded the margin for Kerry (in his race) by 257,546 votes.

If the selection criterion is a Connally margin 5,000 better than Kerry's, there are 15 such counties where, collectively, Connally's margin exceeded Kerry's by 190,437 votes.

If the selection criterion is a Connally margin 10,000 better than Kerry's, there are 5 such counties where, collectively, Connally's margin exceeded Kerry's by 119,960.

The seven (7) counties with some type of DRE voting machine are: Auglaize, Franklin, Knox, Lake, Mahoning, Pickaway, Ross. Two (2) of these counties (Auglaize and Pickaway) appear on the list above of counties in which Connally's margin exceeded Kerry's.

The thirteen (13) counties with some type of optical scan machine (not punch card) are: Allen, Ashland, Clermont, Coshocton, Erie, Geauga, Hancock, Hardin, Lucas, Miami, Ottawa, Sandusky, and Washington. Six (6) of these counties (Allen, Clermont, Geauga, Hancock, Miami, and Washington) appear on the list above of counties in which Connally's margin exceeded Kerry's.

[drunkdriver-in-chief]

1. You call that a CLARIFICATION?????

I think this conally-kerry issue is BS meant to distract us. Or is it just a joke. I don't understand what this is supposed to prove.

[berner59]

2. Distract???

This only clarifies it...this AFRICAN AMERICAN WOMAN got a margin equivalant of 257K more votes than Kerry and she was a Dem whose name was way down on the ballot...the margins should have been lower, not higher...

Come on...this IS something...

[dewaldd]

6. CONNALLY DID NOT GET MORE VOTES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ok, I can't take it any more. I have wasted enough time on this. I am going to bed.

[berner59]

10. I corrected myself...

I had read the original post and then read this update...sorry...don't get nuts anymore, ok?? This is still important data...

[LisaL]

11. Connally-Kerry

Connally got ~ 640,677 votes less than Kerry statewide (not counting provisional ballots).
Yes, if she got 257,000 more votes than Kerry statewide it would have been jaw dropping, but it's not true.

[googly]

17. Was Connally listed as a democrat?

and, did she get more votes in african-american counties?
If so, I can understand her getting more votes because her
race energized more black voters than Kerry energized blacks.

[politicasista]

19. I think she was a Dem...

I read there was some criticism about how Kerry didn't energize AA voters so maybe so or maybe not.

[Woo]

33. teehee...

dewaldd and these conally threads are the funniest thing I've seen in this forum -- sorry, just the visualization of this guy going nuts at his computer over this is really amusing --


thanks.

[LisaL]

8. The 257 K statewide is wrong.

No good will come out of using the wrong numbers to prove FRAUD.
Connally did not get more votes than Kerry statewide, she got way less votes than Kerry.

[Fescue4u]

14. I didnt realize that race was listed on the ballot

Because for SC candidates, they certainly don't list Party.

[googly]

18. The election pamphlet mailed to every registered voter shows photo's

of every candidate running. May be the blacks recognized her
race from the photo?

[Fescue4u]

21. Must not have gotten mine.

I live in Butler county Ohio.

Either I didnt get this pamplet or I threw it away as junk mail.

I take it they do this in Washington State. I don't ever remember receiving such a photo pamplet here in Ohio and I've lived here 40 years.

The ballots btw, do not have the candidate photo, race, sex, or party affliation (in the case of SC's).

This whole Connally tangent is pretty silly.

[googly]

29. Yes, in Wash state we get a thick pamphlet every election

with a whole page of info of every candidate whom you can vote for.
It includes a photo, bio and why the candidate wants your vote.
So I was assuming Ohio did the same. My error.

[freedom for all]

3. I understand

and its very clear...Thank you for the work.. This type of pattern is popping up all over the country...

[buddysmellgood]

5. I think the suggestion is that someone who would vote for connelly would

likely vote for Kerry, but in Wisconsin, you will likely find that a lot of folks voted for Feingold, a dem, and Bush. So it's worth looking into, but I'm not sure it will prove anything.

[FtWayneBlue]

7. It is somewhat complicated

I just got home from the rally at the Baptist church in Columbus and hadn't heard of this problem before. If I understand what Jackson said about it, and am relaying it right, it goes something like this: The little-known Democratic candidate from Cleveland could not rationally be expected to get more votes in that challenge against a well-known incumbant than Kerry did against Bush, especially way down in Cincinatti.

[madrchsod]

4. there is something wrong isn`t there?

in three counties in northern il. which is solid republican, the senate race was very interesting...obama got more votes than kerry,keyes got less votes than bush. so either the republicans voted for obama or didn`t vote for either. but this is not as bad as ohio, in illinois keyes got 27% of all votes cast, so what happened in ohio? connally, a black woman, polled better than kerry? by some counts over tens of thousands? is the supreme court in ohio a well known office that people would vote for her but then vote for bush?

[LisaL]

9. I don't think so.

Because Connally got less votes than Kerry in the state of OH.
She did get more votes than Kerry in some counties, but that doesn't exactly proves FRAUD.

[politicasista]

13. I don't understand

Where is the real evidence in all of this?

[MRKARNO]

12. It seems like just not everyone voted for SCOO Justice

Conally still got a lower percentage of the vote than Kerry did by a few percentage points (about 2)

[KoKo]

15. AAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYY! Is the "Margin" significant or not????

I understand the article was revised, but is the "margin" as significant as having actual votes?

Does the "clarifiction" in the article mean that "there's nothing to see here move along" or that something "funny" went on. :shrug:

Just for those of us who are math/statistic deficient.

[liam97]

16. May help to think like this

In one example (with rounded numbers)

60,000 vote Connally and 66K vote her opponent. Difference 6k.

55,000 vote Kerry and 100,000 vote Bush. Difference 45K

Now if we claim that if 60K vote for Connally they could/would not do so without voting for Kerry, then Kerry should have 60K votes.
This then narrows Kerry-Bush margin to 40K from 45K

This is roughly what you get by subtracting the two differences (45k-6k)= 39K.

These numbers are approximate. But if you work with the actual numbers you do arrive at what their numbers.

[googly]

20. In your example it is quite conceivable that Connally can get 5k

more votes than Kerry because the blacks knew she was black
and made it a point to vote for her. Blacks vote more as a block
than any other voting block.

[liam97]

22. Yes, but

257,000 voters would do this in this year? But beyond that, the issue is this. If this is entered as prima facie evidence as they are trying to do, then it shifts the burden of proof. THis means the state authorities have to prove that it is NOT fraud rather than those who file the suit having to prove that it is.

[pointsoflight]

23. That doesn't explain it.

Remember that Kerry got nearly 90% of the black vote.

[KoKo]

27. Thanks....I got that but the original poster seemed to say the first

article was talking about votes...whereas the correction was talking about margins. So, I thought that meant that the numbers matched more closely between voters for Connally and Kerry than the wide differences
before the revision.

So, I'm still a little confused, but I understand what you are saying. We had odd voting patters like that in NC. Where voting anomalies don't make sence since many voters voted straight party Dem but then voted Repug for Judges and amendments, etc further down on the ballot which were not part of a "party vote."

There's probably a pattern like that in alot of states. If they can just find out what caused it in Ohio..then it could possibly be the "commonality for fraud" in other states.

[Old and In the Way]

24. Could be a smoking gun.....

What's the rational of people selecting a Democratic, Afro-American for State Supreme Court, but choosing Bush as President? I'd expect to see a correlation to total Democratic votes between Kerry and Connelly. Perhaps it is all implied wishful thinking, but it sure seems mighty fishy to me.

[liam97]

25. Not to mention

that the largest margin is in Warren Co.

[googly]

30. On its face it sure does not make much sense, but then I have

seen news items in MSM saying how some blacks are voting for
Bush because of the morals & faith based issues. So they vote
for Bush but then vote for a black lady running for the OSC,
because she is a well known judge? I don't know! It sure looks
odd, to say the least.

[mikeylove]

26. I put a spreadsheet together to illustrate this.

I used data from the Ohio SOS and made an Excel sheet with thresholds set at 0, 1000, 2000, 5000 & 10000 votes difference.

If my numbers are calculated wrong, someone please let me know. I'm kinda new at this. Until I've had a few people check it out for me, no one should consider this as a valid resource. :)

http://www.socialavenger.com/Ohio-Margin-Diff-ByCounty.xls

[ClevelandSportsCurse]

28. You should break it down by percentages

Due to ballot fatigue, a lot less people vote for Chief Justice than President. Therefore, you should use ratios. To be conservative (not politically), take the Connally/Moyer margins and strictly apply them to Kerry/Bush in the counties where her margin of loss was significantly less then Kerry's and see what you get.

Also, consider that in Cuyahoga County, which is Connally's home county, she attained 59% while Kerry got 66%. Given that, how can she receive more votes or percentage of votes than Kerry in counties in the opposite end of the state where it is staunchly much more conservative?

Connally hardly had any money or statewide name recognition. She went against a hard core establishment candidate that no Democrat would have a chance beating. Therefore, you would expect Moyer to receive many more votes from Kerry voters than Connally receiving votes from Bush voters.

It is hard to say how many Kerry voters went for Moyer, but perhaps we can use my home county, Summit, as a benchmark. Thus far, I have not heard of Summit having any major problems. Kerry beat Bush in Summit 56-43 where Moyer beat Connally 52-48. In neighboring Stark County, Kerry beat Bush 51-49 where Moyer beat Connally 59-41. You get the picture. In the Kerry counties, Connally received a lesser percentage than Kerry.

[Old and In the Way]

31. Thanks for providing.......very interesting.

Based on your spreadsheet, Bush + Kerry = 5,455,811.
Connally + Moyer = 4,327,270

I sorted the data by difference (JK - W) and added columns to show the difference in terms of % for both race sets.

For the top 15 in Kerry's favor, 29% of the people didn't bother to vote for the Supreme Court justice.

For the top 15 in Bush's favor, 25% of the people didn't vote for the SC candidates.

Erie was interesting. They had the lowest % difference between total votes cast for both candidate sets....14%. Kerry had a 12% lead over Bush...but Moyer had a 100% lead over Connelly. Apparently Republicans preferred Kerry, there.

But in Kerry's largest district, Cuyoga...32% didn't vote for SC court race? And in Kerry's 2nd largest precinct, Franklin, 36% didn't vote for SC. Either the Democrats don't care about their SC pick or Bush got lot's more Cyber votes..........

[Old and In the Way]

32. I could upload the data with the % deltas for each county

for each race set as well as the aggregate delta %...let me know!

:-)