ONE MORE TIME:16 states deviated from Exit Polls to Bush beyond the MOE

[TruthIsAll]

Sixteen states deviated from the Exit Polls to Bush beyond the
MOE.		
Not ONE deviated beyond the MOE to Kerry.						
The probability of this occuring by chance alone is
infinitesmally small.						

MOE	3.00%						
StdDev:1.53%						

........Kerry
St	Exit	Vote	Diff	Prob >MOE?	by	Favor
AK	40.50	36.08	-4.42	0.2%	Yes	1.42	Bush
AL	41.00	37.00	-4.00	0.4%	Yes	1.00	Bush
AR	46.60	45.45	-1.15	22.7%		-1.85	Bush
AZ	47.00	44.44	-2.56	4.7%		-0.44	Bush
CA	54.00	55.56	1.56	84.5%		-1.44	Kerry
CO	49.10	47.47	-1.63	14.4%		-1.37	Bush
CT	58.50	55.10	-3.40	1.3%	Yes	0.40	Bush
DC	91.00	90.91	-0.09	47.6%		-2.91	Bush
DE	58.50	53.54	-4.96	0.1%	Yes	1.96	Bush
FL	50.50	47.47	-3.03	2.4%	Yes	0.03	Bush
GA	43.00	41.41	-1.59	15.0%		-1.41	Bush
HI	53.30	54.55	1.25	79.2%		-1.75	Kerry
IA	50.65	49.49	-1.16	22.5%		-1.84	Bush
ID	33.50	30.61	-2.89	3.0%		-0.11	Bush
IL	57.00	55.00	-2.00	9.6%		-1.00	Bush
IN	41.00	39.39	-1.61	14.7%		-1.39	Bush
KS	35.00	37.37	2.37	94.0%		-0.63	Kerry
KY	41.00	40.00	-1.00	25.7%		-2.00	Bush
LA	44.50	42.42	-2.08	8.8%		-0.92	Bush
MA	66.00	62.63	-3.37	1.4%	Yes	0.37	Bush
MD	57.00	56.57	-0.43	38.8%		-2.57	Bush
ME	54.75	54.08	-0.67	33.1%		-2.33	Bush
MI	52.50	51.52	-0.98	26.0%		-2.02	Bush
MN	54.50	51.52	-2.98	2.6%		-0.02	Bush
MO	47.50	46.00	-1.50	16.4%		-1.50	Bush
MS	43.25	40.00	-3.25	1.7%	Yes	0.25	Bush
MT	39.75	39.80	0.05	51.2%		-2.95	Kerry
NC	48.00	44.00	-4.00	0.4%	Yes	1.00	Bush
ND	34.00	36.36	2.36	93.9%		-0.64	Kerry
NE	36.75	32.32	-4.43	0.2%	Yes	1.43	Bush
NH	55.40	50.51	-4.89	0.1%	Yes	1.89	Bush
NJ	55.00	53.54	-1.46	16.9%		-1.54	Bush
NM	51.30	49.49	-1.81	11.9%		-1.19	Bush
NV	49.35	48.48	-0.87	28.6%		-2.13	Bush
NY	63.00	59.18	-3.82	0.6%	Yes	0.82	Bush
OH	52.10	49.00	-3.10	2.1%	Yes	0.10	Bush
OK	35.00	34.00	-1.00	25.7%		-2.00	Bush
OR	51.20	52.00	0.80	69.9%		-2.20	Kerry
PA	54.35	51.00	-3.35	1.4%	Yes	0.35	Bush
RI	64.00	60.61	-3.39	1.3%	Yes	0.39	Bush
SC	46.00	41.41	-4.59	0.1%	Yes	1.59	Bush
SD	37.75	39.39	1.64	85.9%		-1.36	Kerry
TN	41.50	43.00	1.50	83.6%		-1.50	Kerry
TX	37.00	38.38	1.38	81.7%		-1.62	Kerry
UT	30.50	27.55	-2.95	2.7%		-0.05	Bush
VA	45.20	45.45	0.25	56.6%		-2.75	Kerry
VT	65.00	60.20	-4.80	0.1%	Yes	1.80	Bush
WA	54.95	53.54	-1.41	17.8%		-1.59	Bush
WI	52.50	50.51	-1.99	9.6%		-1.01	Bush
WV	45.25	43.43	-1.82	11.8%		-1.18	Bush
WY	30.90	29.59	-1.31	19.6%		-1.69	Bush
							
Avg48.8	47.0	-1.7	12.834%		-0.7	

[Spiffarino]

1. Quick question

Was this deviation from the 4pm exit polls or the 12am exit polls? I know there wasn't a big change between the two (well, until the numbers were "massaged" a few hours later) but it may come up in conversation later and forewarned is forearmed.

Thanks and as always...great work :yourock:

[Carl Brennan]

2. Great job TIA

:yourock:

[TruthIsAll]

9. Another view of the data. This will make it even more clear...

........Kerry							
St	Exit	Vote	Diff	Prob	>MOE?	by	Favor
DE	58.5	53.54	-4.96	0.10%	Yes	1.96	Bush
NH	55.4	50.51	-4.89	0.10%	Yes	1.89	Bush
VT	65	60.2	-4.8	0.10%	Yes	1.8	Bush
SC	46	41.41	-4.59	0.10%	Yes	1.59	Bush
NE	36.75	32.32	-4.43	0.20%	Yes	1.43	Bush

AK	40.5	36.08	-4.42	0.20%	Yes	1.42	Bush
AL	41	37	-4	0.40%	Yes	1	Bush
NC	48	44	-4	0.40%	Yes	1	Bush
NY	63	59.18	-3.82	0.60%	Yes	0.82	Bush
CT	58.5	55.1	-3.4	1.30%	Yes	0.4	Bush

RI	64	60.61	-3.39	1.30%	Yes	0.39	Bush
MA	66	62.63	-3.37	1.40%	Yes	0.37	Bush
PA	54.35	51	-3.35	1.40%	Yes	0.35	Bush
MS	43.25	40	-3.25	1.70%	Yes	0.25	Bush
OH	52.1	49	-3.1	2.10%	Yes	0.1	Bush

FL	50.5	47.47	-3.03	2.40%	Yes	0.03	Bush
MN	54.5	51.52	-2.98	2.60%		-0.02	Bush
UT	30.5	27.55	-2.95	2.70%		-0.05	Bush
ID	33.5	30.61	-2.89	3.00%		-0.11	Bush
AZ	47	44.44	-2.56	4.70%		-0.44	Bush

LA	44.5	42.42	-2.08	8.80%		-0.92	Bush
IL	57	55	-2	9.60%		-1	Bush
WI	52.5	50.51	-1.99	9.60%		-1.01	Bush
WV	45.25	43.43	-1.82	11.80%		-1.18	Bush
NM	51.3	49.49	-1.81	11.90%		-1.19	Bush

CO	49.1	47.47	-1.63	14.40%		-1.37	Bush
IN	41	39.39	-1.61	14.70%		-1.39	Bush
GA	43	41.41	-1.59	15.00%		-1.41	Bush
MO	47.5	46	-1.5	16.40%		-1.5	Bush
NJ	55	53.54	-1.46	16.90%		-1.54	Bush

WA	54.95	53.54	-1.41	17.80%		-1.59	Bush
WY	30.9	29.59	-1.31	19.60%		-1.69	Bush
IA	50.65	49.49	-1.16	22.50%		-1.84	Bush
AR	46.6	45.45	-1.15	22.70%		-1.85	Bush
KY	41	40	-1	25.70%		-2	Bush

OK	35	34	-1	25.70%		-2	Bush
MI	52.5	51.52	-0.98	26.00%		-2.02	Bush
NV	49.35	48.48	-0.87	28.60%		-2.13	Bush
ME	54.75	54.08	-0.67	33.10%		-2.33	Bush
MD	57	56.57	-0.43	38.80%		-2.57	Bush

DC	91	90.91	-0.09	47.60%		-2.91	Bush
MT	39.75	39.8	0.05	51.20%		-2.95	Kerry
VA	45.2	45.45	0.25	56.60%		-2.75	Kerry
OR	51.2	52	0.8	69.90%		-2.2	Kerry
HI	53.3	54.55	1.25	79.20%		-1.75	Kerry

TX	37	38.38	1.38	81.70%		-1.62	Kerry
TN	41.5	43	1.5	83.60%		-1.5	Kerry
CA	54	55.56	1.56	84.50%		-1.44	Kerry
SD	37.75	39.39	1.64	85.90%		-1.36	Kerry
ND	34	36.36	2.36	93.90%		-0.64	Kerry

KS	35	37.37	2.37	94.00%		-0.63	Kerry

[bleever]

11. Kick: it's up, it's good.

[TruthIsAll]

13. HERE IS A GRAPH OF THE DATA

[democrat in Tallahassee]

3. God loves bush. What don't you understand?

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TruthIsAll]

6. I have not fudged a thing. Don't you DARE accuse me of that.

If I made a mistake it was in copying data in Excel. I will check if that is the case. I am human. If I goofed (and I'm not sure of that) it was ONLY because I rushed to get this post out before leaving my house.
As soon as I'm able, I will check the numbers.

You are way off base to question my honesty.

[bemis12]

7. Perhaps the place you pulled the numbers from

... fudged the data. The fact remains that all 16 are slanted to produce a larger error, as compared to the exit polls as posted by Slate.

[Bozos for Bush]

8. DU Under Attack!

Fortunately there are more of us than them

Great post as always Truth!

[TruthIsAll]

10. I CHECKED.THE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT. NICE TRY.

YOU HAD ME GOING THERE FOR A MINUTE.

I MUST CONGRATULATE YOU. YOU ALMOST TRIPPED ME.

BETTER LUCK NEXT TIME.

[Fovea]

5. Another question

Does anyone know if Karl Rove took Stats before he dropped out of college?

[merh]

12. Did the repukes win offices (other than prez) in those 16 states?

I mean, were they able to steal other elections to shore up their power in congress?