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Pre-election State Polls vs. Exit Polls vs. Actuals: ONE Graph. Look Close

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 02:36 AM
Original message
Pre-election State Polls vs. Exit Polls vs. Actuals: ONE Graph. Look Close
Edited on Wed Nov-24-04 03:30 AM by TruthIsAll
Well, the Pre-election polls and the Exit Polls matched up quite close, actually. Within 0.13% of each other, when averaging the deviations in all the states. That's 1/7th of ONE percent. A hair.
But the actuals, now that's a different story.

But the polls can't be right. Not according to the whoremedia. Not according to NYT, WP and Peter Jennings. No.

Their specious argument is therefore reduced to this:
Trust the voting machines. Trust Bush. To not trust Bush and Rove means you are a left-wing, liberal, conspiracy nut.

Only the votes recorded by the Diebold paperless, audit-free touchscreens, the optical scammers and the punched cards (apart from the one million spoiled in minority precincts) are correct.

The Media mantra is:
****Pre-election pollsters AND Exit pollsters ALL had to be wrong***

Then, we must conclude:
Not only was Exit Pollster Deluxe Mitofsky wrong, so were state pollsters Zogby, Harris, ARG, Survey USA, Mason- Dixon, Gallup, Rasmussen, Strategic Vision, ...

Right.

Wonder why Dan Rather finally quit? Probably couldn't take giving the WH talking points anymore.


View the carnage:
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TennisGuy2004 Donating Member (98 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 02:47 AM
Response to Original message
1. Excellent job!
Now you need to create a third bar for "results." You can find the results on uselectionatlas.org.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 03:03 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Thank you. I just added the actuals.
tia
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 09:03 AM
Response to Reply #1
12. MY BAD: FORGOT TO SAY THESE ARE KERRY'S NUMBERS.
tia
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yowzayowzayowza Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 02:50 AM
Response to Original message
2. What do the results look like w/o the...
polls you previously designated as "corporate"?

Also, thx for all your werk!!!!
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 04:51 AM
Response to Original message
4. NH
Edited on Wed Nov-24-04 04:51 AM by Carolab
Probably not gonna find much there judging by this, aside from possibly identifying patterns with certain machines.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 09:28 AM
Response to Reply #4
14. Purpose of the graph:to show the footprints of vote deviations
Edited on Wed Nov-24-04 09:35 AM by TruthIsAll
from the final published polls and the exit polls in ONE place.

And the pattern is clear. Kerry's numbers declined in the vast majority (80%) of states. The odds of this alone: 1 of 1.7 million.



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TennisGuy2004 Donating Member (98 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 05:03 AM
Response to Original message
5. Colorado actual?
I show Kerry with 46.16% of the vote in Colorado.
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blitzburgh55 Donating Member (320 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 07:25 AM
Response to Original message
6. Campaign 2004: Swing-State Election Results
here's an analysis of the swing state exit polls. Sorry if it's a dupe.

Campaign 2004: Swing-State Election Results: By BOB BURNETT
Special to the Planet (11-23-04)

The 2004 presidential exit polls were wildly off the mark in swing states; the difference between the expected and actual results was not randomly distributed, it was all in Bushs favor.
Because of these discrepancies, I studied the election results in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. What I found were not answers, but more questions.

Because of the amount of data, I made two assumptions to simplify my inquiry. The first was to examine the states in the order of the reported magnitude of the difference between the expected and the actual results; I started with New Hampshire where the difference was 9.5 percent. And, I did not consider anecdotal evidence; I disregarded reports that a voting machine had malfunctioned in a particular precinct, for example, and, instead, looked for systemic failures.

New Hampshire: Kerry was projected to win by 10.8 percent and actually won by 1.3 percent, 9,274 votes. Bush narrowly won New Hampshire in 2000, but this time Democrats expected to win as they had conducted an aggressive registration drive. However, New Hampshire permitted same day voter registration and there were 96,000 registrations on Nov. 2, about 15 percent of the turnout; Democrats accused Republicans of taking advantage of the rules and bringing in questionable new voters. Its not clear how these voters were profiled by party registration but exit polls indicated that 44 percent of voters said there were Independent, 32 percent Republican, and 25 percent Democratfewer Democrats than were expected.

An independent assessment of voting results in areas serviced by optical scanning equipment indicated irregularities. For example, in 2000 Al Gore carried Newton Township by 126 votes, whereas in 2004 Kerry lost by 57 votes. There will be a recount in 11 precincts that produced anomalous results.

Ohio: Kerry was projected to win by 4.2 percent and lost by 2.5 percentusing unofficial numbers. There are have been many reports of voting irregularities; Greg Palast noted some at www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=395&row=0. Most counties in Ohio continued to use antiquated punch-card equipment; the problems experienced were similar to those that plagued Florida in 2000.

Forty percent of Ohioans registered as Republicans, 35 percent as Democrats, and the balance Independents. Kerry got more votes and a higher percentage of the total vote than Gore did in 2000, but still lost. Former Ohio Senator John Glenn said that Republicans won because they did a better job getting out the vote.

Pennsylvania: Kerry was projected to win by 8.7 percent and actually won by 2.2 percent. There were remarkably few voting problems reported in Pennsylvania, which has a mixture of old and new equipment.

While Pennsylvania voter registration roles show that 48 percent are registered Democratsversus 41 percent Republican and the balance varieties of Independentexit polls showed that only 41 percent of those who voted said they were Democrats.

This suggests that either fewer Democrats showed up to vote than were expected, or those who did voted as if they were Independents, i.e. crossed over and voted for Bush. Pennsylvania exit polls indicated that voters who made their Presidential decision at the last moment favored Bush, a characteristic that was not true in the other swing states, where last-minute voters favored Kerry.

Minnesota: Kerry was projected to win by 9 percent and won by 3.5 percent. There was an unusually large turnout, 77 percent, and Kerrys plurality was almost 100,000.

Minnesota is one of the states that permit same day voter registration and this may have been a factor in the final results. Relative to the 2000 election, Bush picked up support among both Republicans and Democrats.

There were no major problems reported with voting equipmentmost counties used optical-scan equipment but rural areas still have paper ballots.

Florida: Bush was projected to win by 0.1 percent and actually won by 5 percent, a margin of approximately 380,000 votes.

There are many articles on the Internet concerning Florida vote irregularities. The most recent, and damming, was conducted by UC researchers and released on Nov. 17, http://ucdata.berkeley.edu (under voting). The carefully conducted study concludes that electronic voting machinestouch-screen devicesappear to have systematically over counted in Bushs favor. There is another study found at http://blog.democrats.com/florida that shows problems in counties with optical-scan equipment. There are several ongoing investigations in Florida; including one led by Bev Harris of blackboxvoting.org.

I dont have space to chronicle all that I found in the other five swingstates, but in each case there were anomalies; the most worrisome occurred in New Mexico, which has yet to declare its official results.

The bottom-line is that there are troubling problems in at least three swing states and issues in others. The anomalous exit-poll results may have resulted from a very effective GOP get-out-the-vote effort that brought more Republicans than expected to the polls. Unfortunately, the exit-poll discrepancies may also indicate political chicanery in some states. It is in the best interests of the American people for all these matters to be carefully investigated.


Bob Burnett is a Berkeley writer and computer scientist best known as one of the executive founders of Cisco Systems.

http://www.berkeleydaily.org/text/article.cfm?issue=11-...
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spooked Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 07:49 AM
Response to Original message
7. LOOK how DC is EXACTLY the same in Exit Polls and Actual Vote
They forgot to hack that one, not being one of the 50 "states".

Is it possible to do this same graph for Bush's numbers??? That would be VERY interesting!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 09:15 AM
Response to Reply #7
13. Bush's numbers are a mirror of Kerry's: Bush =100 - Kerry.
Example:
Assume that for state X, Kerry 48%
then Bush = 52%.

This applies to all three categories. Pre, exit, Actual
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FormerOstrich Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 07:54 AM
Response to Original message
8. I apologize for being dense...it's early...
but are the actuals Kerry's results, Bush's results or both???
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 08:19 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. These are Kerry's results
tia
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Paradise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 08:47 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. kick! n/t
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BlueDog2u Donating Member (692 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 08:54 AM
Response to Original message
11. Very nice work
Would it be possible to see the same three data sets divided into two groups:

1) Paper voting

2) Non-paper voting
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rockymountaindem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 09:48 AM
Response to Original message
15. Kickeroo.
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Goldeneye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 09:51 AM
Response to Original message
16. Assuming that the exit polls were right
How many lost votes were there for Kerry nationwide?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 10:22 AM
Response to Reply #16
19. Based on Exit Polls, Kerry won by 50.5-48.5, a 5% switch from Bush 51-48%
Edited on Wed Nov-24-04 10:24 AM by TruthIsAll
Take 5% of 115 million votes and you get a net loss of around SIX million votes.
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Duncan Donating Member (498 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 10:15 AM
Response to Original message
17. Is this with the actual exit poll data or
Edited on Wed Nov-24-04 10:17 AM by Duncan
with the "adjusted" exit poll "data". If its the "adjusted" data, using the actual raw exit poll data in this graph would make the election results look even more ludicrous.

I guess you've seen this:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Thanks for fighting for democracy.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #17
18. These are the actual exit poll numbers. See the Scoop threads.
tia
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 11:32 AM
Response to Original message
20. Should we send it to Olbermann? Will Mitofsky confirm the numbers?
Edited on Wed Nov-24-04 11:33 AM by TruthIsAll
We already have Zogby, ARG et al.

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electropop Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 12:04 PM
Response to Original message
21. beautiful work n/t
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ooglymoogly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 02:17 PM
Response to Original message
22. jeeesus h keeryst.. send it to olbermann
i wonder how cnn's colonel klink will handle the coming roar
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masshole1979 Donating Member (172 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 04:03 PM
Response to Original message
23. one problem with all these graphics...
...the source materials are never listed inside the graphics. This is important since the graphics will inevitably become disembodied from whatever text accompanied them. This is also important since the provenance of the data is one of the issues at stake.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 09:01 PM
Response to Reply #23
29. The early "pure" and late "soiled" exit data are out of the tube.
Edited on Wed Nov-24-04 09:06 PM by TruthIsAll
We have the "pure" exit poll data from 4-12pm.

And we know of the bastardized,soiled, manipulated data which was fed to the sheeple on CNN afterwards, under cover of darkness.

Too bad for the fascist whores at CNN that patriotic truthseekers saved the "pure" and "impure" exit poll screen shots.
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 04:20 PM
Response to Original message
24. Cross posted to dKos and thank you.
Useful information for many purposes. I am using it in the dKos Diary to help folk focus on the need for an immediate, exhaustive audit of the central tabulating center in every State.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/24/115048/86

Happy Thanksgiving!
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 04:50 PM
Response to Original message
25. Excellent statistical graph, TIA. "Whew! That's hawd werk!"
Edited on Wed Nov-24-04 04:51 PM by Straight Shooter
I cannot stress enough to the gullible, who cannot wrap their minds around the idea of a tampered election, how important it is to look at states like Oregon, where I live.

final poll - 53%
exit poll - 51%
actual - 52%

Have you sent this to Keith Olbermann and Aaron Brown and buzzflash?
buzzflash@buzzflash.com

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. Please send it for me. I'm shy.
tia
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 09:40 PM
Response to Reply #28
30. I just sent it to Buzzflash. Nice work, TIA. n/t
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emcguffie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
26. graph with all three comparison
excuse me, but I have a question about this graph.

It looks to me like you are not using the raw exit poll data, the data that is in Freeman's paper. I base this on Pennsylvania, where Kerry, by exit poll, was much, much higher than where he ended up. There was a huge discrepancy in Pennsylvania. Could you be using the numbers where they had worked in some of the final totals? So that there wasn't such a divergence? The "fixed" exit polls, I mean.

I am absolutely new at this, so please excuse any naivete or bad manners.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. These are 4pm exit polls. Kerry had 54% in PA.
Edited on Wed Nov-24-04 07:49 PM by TruthIsAll
I did not show decimals in order to make the graph easier to read.
The main purpose of the graph was to present the three sets of polling data in a single view.

Focus on the forest. Let others study the trees.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-25-04 01:03 AM
Response to Original message
31. I love it TIA.. as usual you outdo yourself again...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-25-04 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #31
34. Al, check out the thread I posted today. A view of the deviations
compared to the MOE.

Thanks
tia
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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-25-04 02:08 AM
Response to Original message
32. I find "actual" confusing. Do you mean, "reported"?
A nit; but.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-25-04 08:51 AM
Response to Reply #32
33. Actual = Reported. The terminology is used everywhere.
Edited on Thu Nov-25-04 08:52 AM by TruthIsAll
The true "actual" votes are unknown.

You have a valid point. It's no nit.
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Zan_of_Texas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. A phrase you could use is Votes Tallied or Vote Tally
We don't know what "actual" is.
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Bread and Circus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 07:32 PM
Response to Original message
36. In 31 states, Kerry's final tally was below both the final poll and EP #'s
Kerry's final tally was below the Exit polls in 39 states

Kerry's final tally was below the final poll #'s in 38 states

---

Seems rather suspect to me.
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drummer55 Donating Member (306 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 08:06 PM
Response to Original message
37. This might be one reason the polls were so off everywhere.
Who should we believe in Oklahoma?
This travesty of our democratic process must not stand!

According to Bob Nichols of the Oklahoma Independent Media Center, Rural Oklahoma Voting machines know how to count backwards. Read it for yourself: http://okimc.org/newswire.php?story_id=344

Then do the research and math.

I took just the first 5 counties (you can do it with all of them)

November 3rd results per the Tulsa World Newspaper http://www.tulsaworld.com/TWPDFs/2004/Final/A_10_11_3_2...

County Bush Kerry
Adair 2137 3704
Alfalfa 920 1075
Atoka 839 2897
Beaver 807 1114
Beckam 2811 2343


The Updated results that Oklahoma sent in that are being reported on CNN as of 11/28/04 http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/...

County Bush Kerry
Adair 4971 2560
Alfalfa 2201 470
Atoka 3140 1946
Beaver 2271 297
Beckam 5454 1931

The difference between the results that the Tulsa World Newspaper reported compared with the 11/28/04 total on CNN?

Bush gained +10523
Kerry lost -3929

Shocking isnt it? Thats just in 5 counties! How can a candidate lose thousands of votes that show up in the initial tally across the whole state? I cant find a single county where Kerry did not lose votes from the initial report. This is something anyone can check out. Take the newspaper link above and compare it to the CNN official results.

Pass this on everywhere. If you werent angry before or needed more evidence then maybe this will convince you that this election is no better than the one in the Ukraine.
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Bread and Circus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-27-04 09:30 PM
Response to Reply #37
38. It seems to me backward counting machines inherently favor Bush...
because large population centers (urban areas) are usually
blue and small communities are usually red.

It acts as a screen or "filter".
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #38
40. Backward leader. Backward machines.
tia
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-28-04 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #37
39. Hi drummer55!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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texpatriot2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 11:33 AM
Response to Original message
41. kick
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GOPBasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
42. Very well put!
I wish someone outside of DU would listen.
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donkeyotay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 12:37 PM
Response to Original message
43. Thanks Truthisall. The math will set us free
As to the GOP talking point that all the polls were wrong outside the margin of error, I'd just like to say that if they wanted the election to be accepted as legitimate, they should have made it open and transparent...

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texpatriot2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
44. kick
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texpatriot2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
45. kick
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