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TennisGuy2004 Donating Member (98 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 04:38 PM
Original message
New analysis of Ohio exit polls.
One of the explanations pundits have given for the Ohio exit polls being so far off is that African Americans were over-sampled. Please read the following analysis so you know why that is pure bunk.

In the original exit poll, among White Men (40% of survey), Bush gets 53% and Kerry gets 47%. Among White Women (45% of survey), Bush gets 53% and Kerry gets 47%. So among these subgroups, the percentages are the same.

Now, on the corrected data, now posted on cnn.com, suddenly we find that among White Men (40% of survey), Bush gets 56% to Kerry's 43%. And among White Women (46% of survey), Bush gets 55% to Kerry's 45%.

Chuck Todd, respected journalist, stated during the election coverage that the original exit poll had over-sampled African-Americans. Whether or not the original exit polls over-sampled African-Americans has no relevance whatsoever to this unexplained shift toward Bush among White Women and White Men. These numbers clearly look fudged.

If cnn.com had simply corrected their exit poll to show a smaller number of African-Americans, that would be one thing, but shifting the percentages of Whites who voted for Bush and Kerry is something completely different.

Additionally, I distinctly remember that in the original exit poll Bush garnered 12% of the African American vote. Now, suddenly, it's 16% in this new exit poll.
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joeunderdog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
1. No blacks in NH and they were off by 15 points in exit polls.
There musta been white folks masquerading as black.

Either that, or the voting was rigged.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Good point.
This is just after the fact BS to cover their cover-up.
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pacalo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. And you made a good point, too: after-the-fact B.S.!
Up until Bushitler ran for president in 2000, exit polls were very reliable! Those who take the exit polls are professional enough to know how to sample voters! Oversampling -- right :eyes:
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tk2kewl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 04:44 PM
Response to Original message
2. "African Americans were over-sampled"
you sure they werent just undercounted?
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 04:45 PM
Response to Original message
3. They "corrected" the exit polls by mixing in actual votes, but they DON'T
have the demographic data to go with those votes (i.e., race, sex, etc.).

So how can their final demographic data have any validity, even relevant to their own skewed data set? They were throwing in anonymous votes on top of their exit polls.

Am I mistaken, or is this just crap that they're presenting as reliable data?

:wtf:
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 04:48 PM
Response to Original message
5. The adjusted to actual result "exiit poll" is a "best fit" and not really
a poll.

It is standard procedure to do this - but I do not know what it attemps to prove or show.

The 4pm exit polls are widely available - and the 6pm -and later but prior to poll closing - are available for cash.

If the USA can tell the Ukraine that exit polls show that there was no fair election, without our media pointing out the irony -

then "mediawhore" is much too nice a term for most in the US MEDIA profession.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-22-04 04:48 PM
Response to Original message
6. 6:00 exit polls
They had Kerry winning too. There's no over-sampling in these exit polls. All you have to do is look at the poll for "who you voted for in 2000".
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