Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

New Thread - Vermont Does Hand Counts! Please READ

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
 
TennisGuy2004 Donating Member (98 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:27 AM
Original message
New Thread - Vermont Does Hand Counts! Please READ
Here is an excerpt from that "Common Dreams" article from Nov. 6th:

---On the CNBC TV show "Topic A With Tina Brown," several months ago, Howard Dean had filled in for Tina Brown as guest host. His guest was Bev Harris, the Seattle grandmother who started www.blackboxvoting.org from her living room. Bev pointed out that regardless of how votes were tabulated (other than hand counts, only done in odd places like small towns in Vermont), the real "counting" is done by computers. Be they Diebold Opti-Scan machines, which read paper ballots filled in by pencil or ink in the voter's hand, or the scanners that read punch cards, or the machines that simply record a touch of the screen, in all cases the final tally is sent to a "central tabulator" machine.---

VERMONT DOES HAND COUNTS. VERMONT IS THE STATE WITH BY FAR THE LARGEST SHIFT TOWARDS JOHN KERRY FROM THE 2000 ELECTION - OVER 10%!

AM I ONTO SOMETHING HERE????



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
GetTheRightVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:32 AM
Response to Original message
1. Well I am not surprised

I have always know that John Kerry won the election but how to prove it is the problem. The Bush crime family is stealing this one as well. We need to go back to hand counts again for sure. I am a programmer and there is no way I would entrust my vote to a machine.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ahyums Donating Member (348 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:35 AM
Response to Original message
2. not on the face of it - Vermont is after all one of the most
liberal/progressive states in the country, and one where a lot of political energy was generated by the Dean candidacy. There was also once a tradition of New England Republicanism which seems to be dying down somewhat because it was linked to moderates, and as the Republican party becomes ever more ideologically rigidly conservative the region becomes increasingly Democratic. - Pretty much in reverse to what happened in the South, which became Republican due to a dearth of conservative Democrats.
Having said all that though there might be something in it, I just think it's explainable in other ways.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
KnowerOfLogic Donating Member (841 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:35 AM
Response to Original message
3. They hand count the whole state?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TennisGuy2004 Donating Member (98 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Hand Counts
They don't hand count the whole state, but the VAST majority of precincts still use paper ballots and are not touch screen or opti-scan ballots and there are many small towns that do hand counts. It's one of the only states that has a significant number of hand counts.

New Hampshire was another state that had a rather strong "Deaniac" movement and the actual result was off about 10% from the exit poll that showed Kerry winning easily there.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:26 PM
Response to Reply #3
27. The state has less than 1/2 million people total --
I think it's something like 360,000 TOTAL population (including children unable to vote), so it wouldn't be that burdensome a task.

And yes, Vermont is considerably more liberal/progressive than a lot of other states, which is why Vermont "liberals" (VERY liberal by most states' standards) were always so angry with the sensible and pragmatic, though extremely progressive, Governor Dean.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Mike Nelson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:36 AM
Response to Original message
4. You interest ME!
Obviously, the comparison of how votes are counted is there, which you saw.

I thought it was also VERY INTERESTING that HOWARD DEAN fills in as host and has BEV HARRIS as his guest for the day.

More dots to connect...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
drm604 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:42 AM
Response to Original message
6. It's certainly interesting
and it is consistent with the idea that computer tabulations are suspect, but I doubt that it would be accepted as proof of anything. Do you know if Vermont's exit polls were accurate? Did Vermont even have exit polls?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:43 AM
Response to Original message
7. How did Vermont exit polls compare to the final tally, do you know?
Edited on Sun Nov-21-04 01:17 AM by Straight Shooter
I'm in Oregon, mail-in ballots. The exit polls (taken at drop-off locations, I presume) were almost dead-on exact with the final results.

How about Vermont? Do you have those stats available?

Edit: Holy smokes! I just checked Oregon. In 2000, Gore won Oregon by beating bush with 7,000 more votes, but he and bush had 47% each of the votes. In 2004, Kerry beat bush with by 67,000 more votes, 52% to 48%.

1,713,908 votes cast for Kerry and bush in 2004, and 1,433,919 votes cast for Gore and bush in 2000.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 07:38 AM
Response to Reply #7
17. Nader
We kept our Dem & Nader vote. That's how we got to 52%. You've got to factor that in. But that also leads to the question for some other strong 2000 Nader states, where the hell did the Nader vote go?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 11:24 AM
Response to Reply #17
25. Good point. Nader got 5% of Oregon votes in 2000
That would bump up Gore's 47% in 2000 to the 52% Kerry got in 2004.

If we can show a pattern across the states where Kerry absorbed the Nader voters, so to speak, then it casts doubt on bush picking up so many "new" votes.

The odd thing is, IIRC, the pre-election polls showed that Nader supporters were taking votes from bush, too, although in not as many numbers as taking votes from Kerry. I don't remember the relative percentages. Of course, it stands to reason that since putting Nader on the ballot was actively being promoted and supported by the GOP, they had the internal polls to suggest that Nader's presence would hurt Kerry.

Maybe Nader's camp has the answer: Where did the Nader votes go?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mdb Donating Member (398 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:45 AM
Response to Original message
8. Right here. Exit polls
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ahyums Donating Member (348 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:48 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. wouldn't those be post "modification" exit polls though?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mdb Donating Member (398 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. I was just thinking that. Yeah, probably need the unmodified.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TennisGuy2004 Donating Member (98 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:54 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Vermont Exit Poll
The original "unmodified" exit poll showed Kerry leading 65 to 35. The final result was Kerry 59 to 39. Very odd. One of those "10% shift to Bush" states.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BlueDog2u Donating Member (692 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #11
20. I hate to say it...
But if Vermont uses paper ballots, and the exit polls were off by 10%, then to me that suggests that in fact there is something wrong with the exit poll data. Notice also that in TIA's most recent post calculating the likelihood of the discrepancies between exit polls and official tabulations, this discrepancy means that Vermont is one of those states for which the chance approaches zero.

Now, given that a) Vermont would never have gone to Bush anyway, without massive fraud and b) Vermont has paper ballots, isn't this grounds to question the accuracy of the exit polling?

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ahyums Donating Member (348 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #20
22. if he's right about the original exit poll that is of course true, but I
suspect there's been some confusion here. I seem to remember seeing Vermont in a list where of states where the exit polls were basically proved accurate. It is true that if the exit polls were wrong in Vermont it would more than likely undermine exit polls themselves fairly considerably.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BlueDog2u Donating Member (692 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #22
24. TIAs Analysis
Edited on Sun Nov-21-04 11:03 AM by BlueDog2u
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


And the data quoted on this thread don't support that. If there is other exit poll data on Vermont then that would be interesting, but the numbers currently being discussed here show a wide discrepancy. And if exit polls are so accurate, how can they vary that much?

Sorry to be a pain in the ass. Its my hobby.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ahyums Donating Member (348 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #24
26. no you're absolutely right, and if there was a large discrepancy, then I
think a large part of the exit poll argument is undermined, especially if there were mostly hand counts. I would say though that because Vermont has a relatively small population there might be sample size issues or something which would make polls less reliable than in bigger states, but to be honest I have absolutely no idea if that's the case.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mdb Donating Member (398 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 12:57 AM
Response to Original message
12. Here are the 2000 results.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 01:04 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. Gore 51%, bush 41%, Nader 7%, Buchanan 1% in Vermont
148,166 to President Gore, 119,273 to the Thief
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 07:41 AM
Response to Reply #13
18. See, there's the Nader vote
If the Vermont 2004 vote was 59% K 40% B, that fits with the 2000 vote. That's one thing I haven't understood in these other states, where is the Nader vote.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 02:25 AM
Response to Original message
14. So, are you in Vermont?
Could you do some checking?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Karenca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 02:28 AM
Response to Original message
15. KICK
I THINK THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT POST!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
spooked Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 06:56 AM
Response to Original message
16. Also amazing is exit polls showing 10% of Republicans voted for Kerry!
Edited on Sun Nov-21-04 07:15 AM by spooked
In other states they would have us believe that EVERY REPUBLICAN PLUS THOUSANDS of DEMOCRATS Voted for Bush*!!

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
loupe-garou Donating Member (63 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 10:30 AM
Response to Reply #16
23. I love your graphic!!!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #16
28. The premise that bush got 100% of Republican votes is my major pet peeve
Edited on Sun Nov-21-04 01:50 PM by Straight Shooter
No way. There were too many high-level Republicans speaking out against him, people with a great deal of influence.

To assume 100% Repub loyalty is to accept without question another Rovian tactic: inflate perception of bush's support.

The other side of the coin is that 100% loyalty implies a Pavlov's dog response to voting. Not very flattering as an image of "personal responsibility," is it?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
JennC Donating Member (115 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 09:46 AM
Response to Original message
19. kick
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jdog Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-21-04 09:58 AM
Response to Reply #19
21. kick
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Tue Sep 25th 2018, 06:43 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC