How did Betty Castor beat John Kerry in FL?

[DoYouEverWonder]

Here's some more funny numbers from Florida.


Kerry received a total of 3,583,544 votes

Castor received a total of 3,590,201 votes

Castor received 6,657 more votes than Kerry.


In the race for President - 61,774 votes went to other candidates

In the Senate race - 166,829 votes went to other candidates, with the majority going to Dennis Bradley.

So in the Senate race 105,055 more votes went to other candidates than in the race for President.


Also, the total votes cast for President = 7,609,810

The total votes cast for Senate = 7,429,894

That means there were 179,916 more under votes in the Senate race than the Presidential race.


So Castor lost 105,055 votes to other candidates over Kerry. Plus 179,916 more people didn't pick anyone for Senate but did pick someone for President. Yet Castor still beat Kerry by 6,657 votes?

Does anyone else think these stats are odd or significant?

[jdog]

1. Where did these numbers come from?

[DoYouEverWonder]

2. From the FL Dept of State website

http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/

I pulled the numbers from the final officials results.

[bullimiami]

3. Ill accept your numbers and sum it up for you.................fraud.....nt

[jdog]

4. sorry, i tried

looking at the numbers, but i need more COFFEE!

[liquiduniverse]

5. There's nothing too significant about these numbers

It just shows that Castor was in a tighter race than Kerry - at least according to the “official” numbers.

[nodictators]

6. Instant Analysis: Counties where Castor beat Kerry/Edwards

Numbers are Castor's winning margin over Kerry/Edwards:
Alachua - 1305
Baker - 673
Bay - 1122
Bradford - 694
Brevard - 1168
Calhoun - 410
Citrus - 2422
Clay - 1860
Columbia - 1749
DeSoto - 118
Dixie - 775
Duval - 5138
Flagler - 234
Franklin - 485
Gadsden - 617
Gilchrist - 561
Glades - 103
Gulf - 451
Hamilton - 337
Hardee - 657
Hendry - 67
Hernando - 2447
Highlands - 1849
Hillsborough - 16166
Holmes - 798
Jackson - 1050
Jefferson - 369
Lafayette - 545
Lake - 1414
Leon - 2307
Levy - 1055
Liberty - 389
Madison - 590
Manatee - 3533
Marion - 3543
Nassau - 946
Okaloosa - 277
Okeechobee - 311
Pasco - 6012
Pinellas - 8991
Polk - 7222
Putnam - 1289
Santa Rosa - 506
Sarasota - 3209
St. Johns - 920
Sumter - 1260
Suwannee - 1547
Taylor - 923
Union - 381
Wakulla - 1152
Walton - 557
Washington - 540


Castor beat Kerry in 52 of Florida's 67 counties.

[DoYouEverWonder]

7. Yes, I left out that little tidbit

thanks for the post.

Keep in mind that millions was spent on the Presidential race. You couldn't turn on the TV down here without seeing at least 3 - 5 commercials within a few minutes. However, in the Senate race there was much, much less advertising and based on the media coverage you would hardly know there was a Senate race.

Yet almost across the board Castor polled better than Kerry. I don't buy it.

[Imagevision]

41. Castor VS. Martinez?

I'll bet you a dollar to a dime Marinez won the same way Bush did...Diebold!

[nodictators]

9. These numbers shoot the hell out of the "Dixiecrat" crap

Notice that Castor did better than Kerry/Edwards in many of the "Dixiecrat" counties such as Lafayette, Dixie, and Liberty. Yet, she still ran behind Martinez there.

How could a Democratic candidate for the US Senate do better than the Dems presidential ticket? Well, ask Al Gore. He ran well behind Bill Nelson in 2000, in these counties. It seems like many, but not the majority, of the people in the "Dixiecrat" counties will vote for a Dem that they like. Many of them apparently are NOT Dixiecrats.

Still, the Repubs rule in these counties.

[sandnsea]

24. That IS a Dixiecrat

They'll vote for a Dem that's local because their local people aren't like those "liberals". Doesn't matter who we put up nationally, as long as people differentiate their local people from the national party, we're going to have this kind of vote split. And too often, the local Dem doesn't support the national candidate or show where their own policies are the same as the national candidate. I saw Barbara Boxer's commercials, she said EXACTLY the same thing as John Kerry. So explain to me how she got way more votes. Local Democrats have got to identify with the national party if we're ever going to win a Presidential election again.

[Florida_Geek]

8. That one is easy

Nader voters, remember Castor was strong on education. So people voted Nader and Castor. This is believable.

My problem is I do not think Castor OR Kerry really lost Florida.

[DoYouEverWonder]

11. Castor lost more votes to 3rd party candidates

than Kerry and Bush did in the Presidential campaign.

Bradley who ran for Senate got 166,642 votes

Nader only got 32,971 votes.

Your premise doesn't hold up.

[Florida_Geek]

15. But it does back up MY theory 100%

My theory was the votes were stolen by machines program to shift Dem votes to Repug votes.

IE 4% of Kerry(D) votes shifted to Bush(R)
IE 4% of Castor votes shifted to Martinez.

But in the case of somebody voting for another party the vote would not help the Dem or Repug candiate and was unchanged.

So the 166,643 Bradley votes were not touched, but IMHO Greens would have voted for Castor over Martinez and yes some of their votes were shifted but it gave Castor more votes than Kerry got.

[demo dutch]

10. I have been saying that for weeks!

You barely knew there was a senate race going on in Florida.
Numbers look very odd!

[mdb]

12. Notice also the senate race is 99.90% against 100%. total.

Percent 49.40% 48.30% 2.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 99.90%

[DoYouEverWonder]

13. I think it's a rounding problem

because they only go out to 1 decimal place.

[Straight Shooter]

14. Contact althecat and TruthIsAll, let them take a look at this

I'm not a numbers person, but I don't think there's any way Rove could have controlled all the shots; thus, the odd discrepancies in Senate vs. President races in several states which seem to defy the odds. It would have raised too many flags.

Good work.

[floridadem30]

16. kick

[yowzayowzayowza]

17. Even with the third party candidate...

factored in, I thought the disparity between Martinez and * was more interesting.

On edit: CNN numbers...

3,911,825 Bush
3,534,609 Kerry

3,622,823 Martinez
3,544,602 Castor
..165,020 Bradley

Where'd the extra 290k * votes come from?

[Yupster]

19. So a bunch of people went in.

voted for president, never heard of either person running for senate, left that box blank and went home. What's so unbelievable?

I leave boxes blank all the time, often for county judge and constable and stuff I have no clue about.

[IAMREALITY]

20. Hmmm. Interesting...

Guess that means every democrat that voted fo Kerry Did actually hear of the person running for Senate, even though a large percentage of repubs voting for Bush didn't. Hmmm. Interesting statistic. Wonder if we can send that to Steve Freeman for an analysis of THOSE odds....

[DoYouEverWonder]

21. What is unbelievable

that despite the scenario that you describe Castor got more votes than Kerry.

If so many people undervote for Senate, which they did, how did Castor get more votes?

[yowzayowzayowza]

23. Another interesting combination...

Take the 3rd party out of the Martinez/* disparity and you get approximately the CalTech 130k... Things that make ya go hmmmmmmmmm....

I posted a topic on this disparity early Nov 3... still doesn't look right.

[fujiyama]

44. Castor got more votes

than Kerry because she's a local Democrat. People knew her better than Kerry. After all she was president of the UF system I think.

Also there must have been many that voted for Castor for Senate, but Bush for President. That's not very hard to believe either. I would expect some Bush voters wouldn't vote for Martinez because he's hispanic.

Cross over votes aren't all that unusual - we can look at OK, AK, AR, LA, and NC, where the senate candidates did better than Kerry, but ultimately even th republican candidates didn't do nearly as well as Bush did in many of them.

[flyarm]

32. reply to "so a bunch of people went in"

actually just the opposite occured, they went in to the genearal election and voted for the senator and didnt vote for president!!,,betty got more votes than kerry did in many many counties!!
who goes to vote and votes for the senator and not for president?? that is what occured!!!!!!!! that could only indicate votes for kerry were somehow lost!!
almost every event kerry came into town to do, betty castor was at his side, along with senator nelson...
but people do not vote for senator , especially a progressive pro choice senator and then vote for bush..it makes no sense!!
nor does it make sense that people will stand in lines for 2-3 hours and vote for senator and not vote for president!! and thats what would have to occur for these kind of numbers!!..someone please help us down here in pinellas and hillsboro ( tampa ) to make sense of this!! or to have a professor somewhere look at these numbers...fraud took place here..especially on the west coast and its being igored!! but if you look at the numbers on this west coast of fla..none of the numbers make sense from north to south! and i assure you there were no big drives or canvassing for bush here..it was kerry kerry kerry!!

[DoYouEverWonder]

33. What's unusual

is that Castor still got more votes than Kerry, despite the fact that 1000's of people didn't pick anyone for Senator.

[rzemanfl]

18. Castor votes

I have been wondering this since the day after the election.
Not knowing where else to turn, I e-mailed Michael Moore about it back then.

I looked at the Pinellas County results, gave all the third party Presidential votes to Castor, subtracted all the third party and write in votes for Senator from Bush's votes and subtracted the number of people in Pinellas who voted for President but didn't vote for Senator all from Bush's total to arrive at an estimate of the folks who must have voted Bush/Castor. The number votes that Castor got that exceeded Kerry's total (after giving her all the Nader and other third party Presidential votes and which had to have come from Bush voters) and the difference between the Bush and Martinez votes after subtracting under votes, third party and write-ins from the Bush/Martinez difference were a single digit apart. I believe the numbers were 4,871 and 4,870. I did this math at work before they found the extra ballots that Pinellas always seems to leave laying around and don't know whether they have changed the official numbers.

I am not much of a mathematician, but this oddity concerns me. Voting Bush/Castor is like voting Hitler/Mother Theresa.

[GetTheRightVote]

22. Not Likely, if they vote they would vote for Dem over Repuck

People are going to vote along their party lines, it is a proven fact, it they vote it will be for the party member, Castor's and Kerry's numbers should be similiar with this fact, I smell a big rat.

[jdog]

25. Florida absentee ballots

Can you tell me where to find the stats on FL absentee ballots?

[DoYouEverWonder]

26. Which absentee ballots

that ones that were received prior to the election or the overseas ballots that came in afterward?

So far from what I have seen of ballots cast before the election, the absentee ballots favored Bush but the early voting ballots favored Kerry. There were large numbers of both kinds.

[texpatriot2004]

28. I do wonder. Thanks for the numbers.

What did you ever figure out here? It certainly looks odd and doesn't make any logical sense that Castor would get more. Just curious what you finally came up with on this. I am a newbie and I am curious.

[DoYouEverWonder]

29. I come up with numbers that still don't make sense

On Nov. 3rd, FL DOS reported that 7,531,402 were cast for Bush and Kerry.

On Nov. 14th, FL DOS reported that 7,548,066 were cast for Bush and Kerry.

So between the election on Nov 2 and the final certified count on Nov 14th, Bush got 8176 more votes and Kerry got 8488 giving us a total of 16,664 additional votes. I would assume that this is the total of provisional ballots and overseas ballots. That's seems like a very low number to me?

Florida does not have to report the numbers for the provisional ballots until Dec 2nd. We'll see what happens then, I suppose?

[newyawker99]

27. Hi rzemanfl!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[texpatriot2004]

36. I am a newbie. Thanks for the warm welcome.

I am very glad to be here at DU. I actually have been here since the election but I wasn't able to log in until yesterday. :hi:

[flyarm]

34. reply to "castor votes"

i am a dem delegate for pinellas county , i know the sec chair who was present at counting of the "lost box" of pinellas absentee ballots,( she was also a delegate) she and her husband got in a fracas with soe when the count took place , it was being filmed by local tv and the sec chairs husband asked by finger movement deborah clark ( soe) to move over so they would have a clear view to film the counting, clark came out side and yelled at them never to point their finger at her..it was contentious at best. there were approx 255 absentee ballots in the box, so there was a little movement of numbers but not much. but the bigger problem we had here prior to election was questions of people in other states getting letters from repubs to vote absentee ..they were getting applications when they were registered in other states, there was a big question of people voting twice..from other states!! they were being canvassed to in other states from down here by the repugs!!remember many seniors down here are dual citizens with other states. and yet the east coast had approx 70,000 absentee ballots dissapear..poof...and no answers have still come forward on those!! and no one has been fired as of yet for that!! i listened to a story last week of a poll workers who said in northern part of county she was working as a clerk for early voting and the absentee ballots were being thrown under a desk and they over flowed so bad that many of the workers were walking all over them in the small quarters where the ballots were being stored!!..yes they were walking all over them!!
i was a poll watcher, and forearly voting in clearwater, the supervisor at my polling place was a big good ole boy...2 new york lawyers came in and found materials ( brochures) that had all the incumbants in it..bush , cheney etc...they removed them and when i went out side with lawyers the supervisor at that office got into a bit of a language match with the 2 ny lawyers...they told him the material could not be there..and he yelled at them and said..then challange it..they did not..they called deborah clark..and had them removed..but i assure you for the next 6 hours..this good ole boy did everything in his power to attempt to intimidate me...he stared at me with utter hate and nastiness...( what this bubba did not realize is ..i am not intimidateable!!) but i was unable to see the machines nor any problems people had..they had me over in a corner where i could witness nothing...so if there was a probelm with machines or people being turned away..i had no access to any of it! i could see nothing nor hear anyones problems.
i poll watched for 2 weeks early vote, and the general...i was poll watcher at large , so i was able to be put in numerous locations. in the main soe office for early voting the repugs had a poll watcher and i can say in 9 hours at that location, i never saw the guy sit inside for more than 5 minutes , he worked the lines outside challanging people in lines, and was an aggrivator..i called in a lawyer who came and stayed out side to keep him at bay...and to stop his intimidation of voters, we took turns at time protecting the people in lines out side.
i will tell you this , in early voting i was coming home nightly saying kerry is going to win by a landslide...i had not one doubt of that!! as kerry campaign and dnc had so many volunteers handing out t shirts and buttons and fans with kerry /edwards on them ( it was hot) and bottled water to those in line...i was inside and was counting thise coming in with the t shirts and buttons and fans and it was 8-9 out of ten voters ..for days on end...i did talk to a bunch of boys who were brought by buses to vote..they were college kids at a religious college and they were athletes who were being brought to vote by the religous school..i got to know there uniforms!!
but the majority without a doubt were kerry voters..and yet kerry lost in pinellas by 155 votes...i will never till my last breath ever believe kerry lost here..no way no how!!

[righteous1]

30. The same way

Dino Rossi beat Bush in WA, quite a similar situation actually

[flyarm]

31. YES THE NUMBERS FOR CASTOR ARE WEIRD

yes i live in pinellas county, i know Betty and worked for he campaign as well as kerrys and yes we have been yelling and screaming about it down here ...we have had campaigns to get the newspapers to address this to no avail other than a cursory tin foil hat story here and there....we have had meetings about it to no avail. We have all said from the get go, people don't go vote for a senator who is pro life pro choice, a progressive, and then vote for bush...people vote the presidential candidate first and senator second. Betty even lost hillsboro county where she is from, it makes no sense, espeically on this coast, as mel martinez is not a man liked in this neck of the woods!! None of the numbers here in the I-4 corridor make any sense!!
Its as if this west coast of fla has been ignored for the discrepancies of votes!!

[DoYouEverWonder]

37. Can you tell me one thing

Why did Betty walk away? On the day after the election she initially said she was going to contest the election, then she backed off. Haven't heard from her since. Any idea what's going on with her? She lost by only 1.1%, isn't that a convenient number. I am sure it would be easy to find enough votes 'laying' around to put her over the top.

Oh yes, the numbers look funny to me too.

[Senator]

38. Try to get Betty to...

...change the FRAME

If she releases a statement like this, it will get attention. Big time.

[Blueguy]

43. Its not strange at all... not one bit..

Its called splitting the vote, happends all the time.

I voted for Kerry in NJ, but also voted for a few republicans in local races.. its extremely common.

[dkofos]

35. Numbers, We don't need no stinkinin numbers.

Don't worry we have everything under control.

[scoopmeister]

40. What about ol' fashioned prejudice?

Isn't it possible that the reason Castor did better than Kerry in those Dixiecrat counties is that some of the folks who like Bush might also be the type of people who would automatically vote for a whote candidate (Castor) over a Latino one (Martinez)? I can't believe that no one has mentioned that. Don't you think a couple of hundred thousands white fundies out there might not vote for a guy named Martinez?

[Patsy Stone]

39. Always was one of my biggest questions

Along with * voters NOT voting for Martinez: Champion of the Unborn?
Weird.

[Blueguy]

42. HOW? VERY VERY SIMPLE.. MORE PEOPLE LIKE CASTER?

What do you think, we all go in to the voteing booth and just click all democrat and leave? No..

I live in NJ, and i voted for Kerry but supported a few republicans in certain situations.

You never heard of splitting the vote ?? Its extremely common..

[berniew1]

45. There appears to have been fraud or irregularities in both races in Florid

Here is an analysis of the votes by county in Florida, comparing
2004 votes to 2000 votes and number of new registered voters---
by county in Florida; some very strange patterns observed, Big touchscreen counties like Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsboro, Orange, etc.
show big swing to Bush in spite of much more active get out the vote campaign and new Dem voters registered than Repubs.

www.flcv.com/fla04EAS.html
www.flcv.com/fla04EA.html

Someone should do a comparison by county of the Absentee/Provisional votes for these 2 races in touchscreen counties of Florida like the one done for North Carolina posted on this site.

[Blueguy]

46. Doesnt matter we cant recount Florida and Bevs new Lawsuit was too late.

It doesnt matter.. We cant recount florida.. and Bev's lawsuite came a day too late.. Right off Florida, nothing.. zero, zip, nodda we can do there.. Focus on Ohio.