Ohio counties w Registration exceeding 100% of the voting age

[truehawk]

I am reposting this where it is more visable


mikelewis (1 posts) Fri Nov-19-04 02:46 AM
Response to Reply #65

98. Making the margin in Ohio - the absentee votes


The problem isn't where to find votes for Kerry, the solution is where to challenge votes for Bush.

I have been documenting over the past few days, several counties with Registration levels exceeding 100% of the voting age population. I have also been looking into absentee ballots as a possibility as to how the votes swung to Bush.

In Cuyahoga County, a county that went overwhelmingly for Kerry we find some very alarming irregularities. I chose to research Cuyahoga for a specific reason. Because it was so heavily for Kerry that any manipulation of the system would be very appearant. Such as, excessively high voter registration in 37 of the 67 precincts in this county. In these 37 precincts, voter registration exceeds the voting age population. In the case of Cuyahoga Heights, (where I went to school btw) the registration level was 131% of the persons of voting age.

The way I determined the number of eligible Persons of Voting Age (PAV) was to go to the U.S. census bureau and pull the estimates for the individual cities and then compared them to the number of registered voters on the Cuyahoga County Board of Election's website. In at least 8 cases, these registration levels exceeded 120% of the PAV's.

Now the exit poll data suggests that Kerry won the state 52.1% to Bush 47.9% but the results give the state to Bush by 51%. So what could have tipped the scales in a primarily punch ballot state? What condition that was not guaged in the Ohio exit poll data could have had an impact on this election? The absentee vote could have had such an effect. So I again went to Cuyahoga County and found that there was a 7% gain in Bush votes in absentee voters as compared to the way the people who went to the polls voted. This is an unusually high shift.

The total number of votes cast at the polls was 574,475 votes where:
Kerry Received 66.7% of the vote or 383,446 votes
Bush Received 32.7% of the vote or 187,854 votes

The total number of absentee votes cast was 80,624 where:
Kerry Received 61.8% of the absentee vote or 49,816 votes
Bush Received 34.4% of the absentee vote or 27,770 votes

So I surmise that the possibility exists that the absentee voters swung this election. Now whether or not this is by fraud remains to be seen but it gives us a much smaller pool of voters to challenge and we can do so based upon the impossibly high number of registered voters. This pool of voters broke more for Bush in Cuyahoga County so the odds that the absentee ballots aided Bush across the state are very high.

Furthermore, in several counties I have found that the entire county is has registered voters in excess of 100% PAV. This would again give us opportunity for legal challenge of the registration data. Fortunately, the majority of these counties voted republican. In fact only 2 of them, Mahoning (101.4%) and Franklin(103.7%) voted for Kerry and I believe we will find more votes for Kerry in these counties than less. The number that voted for Bush so far is 7. I have only checked 14 counties so far. As I dig deeper, I assume the number will be about half since the registered total for the state based on PAV is 93.5%. Roughly 44 counties with unusually high registration and high absentee votes and no informtion should alarm many people.

The final piece that has convinced me that I am correct is the testimony from Pickaway County of the poll books. What could explain the unsigned poll books is absentee voters. See, if a person votes absentee, they are recorded in the book as voting so that if the person should show up at the polls, they will not vote twice. They would not have signed the books. The fact that she notes so many in such a short amount of time that she would become alarmed indicates that a large amount of absentee ballots were cast. The State is making a point as to not release the data on the absentee ballots. To date, we have only one county, Cuyahoga, that has released the results of the absentee vote in its canvass report and in that report the 7% shift is noted.

While everyone is concerned with finding fraud in the electronic voting machines, we must remember that we use very few of them and they have been very heavily scrutinized. While the possibility for fraud exists with these machines they could not have swung this election on thier own. Voter suppression could also have had an impact but not have guaranteed the election which I am sure they would want to do. The only explanation that maintains the validity of the exit polls and would provide a "ligitimate" ballot count would be the absentee vote. We have not given sufficient attention to absentee ballots which have not been guaged as to thier effectiveness in securing this election and do not have adequate safeguards to protect against fraud.

I beleive that we must put out a demand to have this data released and it allowed to be studied by people much more qualified than I who can verify anomolies in these 600,000 or so votes. If we can see a 7% shift towards Bush in Cuyahoga then what is the shift in other counties that voted heavily towards Bush at the polls. A recount of the votes would only confirm the election for Bush, a challenge must be made against these absentee votes and we can legally question them based on the high registration levels. In many of the smaller counties, there are only 8 to 10 thousand absentee votes to challenge. Should we find people who voted who are not eligible to vote in these counties or state, we can use this to challenge these votes statewide.

I am quite sure, we will find a number of these ballots cast by voters who were either not eligible to vote in this election or voted without knowing they voted. How many of these absentee ballots were forced to vote provisionally? How many were thrown out as spoiled ballots? This data must be known and publically reviewed by trusted experts. I believe this is how Kerry will be inaugurated on Jan. 20th.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[Carolab]

1. Send this on

to hedda_foil (Joan Kravitz) at www.helpamericarecount.org

She is working on Ohio with lawyers there.

[Eloriel]

15. I'll send it to her directly

Thanks, Truehawk. This is marvelous, just marvelous. Exquisite work from Michael Lewis. Do you have the link to the thread this originally appeared in? Thanks.

Also -- I've already sent it to hedda with "instructions" to read the whole thread. :D

[Melissa G]

2. Kick!

[newyawker99]

37. Hi FaithTrustTruth!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[kk897]

3. Union County

Hi---I ran the figures for Union County and came up with 95 to 98 percent of adults registered to vote (depending upon what population projections you use... Maybe I should post my figures because I'm not so hot on math and probably it would be good for someone to check it... let me know if you want me to do that).

The thing about Union County is that it's primarily rural, with a Mennonite population, farmers, small towns, and one wealthy Columbus suburb (Dublin). Even if they were really politically active folks, and even if there was a very effective voter registration drive, 95 percent seems abnormally high.

Compared to 2000, Union has one fewer precinct now. In 2000, it had 25,973 registered voters; in 2004, it had 30,200.

I'm going to think about this more tomorrow, since I"m a bit muzzle-headed right now. Something seems odd and I have to wonder if I'm not finding the this percentage of registered voters the wrong way.

Also, in your data Michael you have to be sure to subtract the number of minors if you're using total population numbers.

[Zan_of_Texas]

7. Population Data - 18 and over - Ohio - by county

http://www.eeoc.gov/stats/census/majorgroups/ohio/oh_county_fips.pdf

Lots of info here, including ethnicity, by county, for Ohio. Over 18, so you don't have to subtract the underage kiddos out.

Only thing is, I can't tell from the bureaucratic language in the Intro page what year the data is -- it LOOKS like it's 2000, released in 2003. Somebody with more patience can read this part and figure that out. http://www.eeoc.gov/stats/census/

[shaggy briard]

34. Better to find the interim projections

These are probably 2000 numbers -- they also produce interim projections for population as of July 1 in 2001 2002 and 2003 -- these are very accurate, but don't break down the population by age -- so you have to make some assumptions -- for example, population of Warren County increased by 23,000 between 2000 and 2003

[Woody Box]

4. This is important

I can't prove it, but I think Mike is right. It's the best way to explain the increased registration numbers.

And if he's right, the recount in Ohio might yield the same results as before, not the exit poll results. This would be a huge setback.

The pollbooks have to be examined.

[TennisGuy2004]

5. Absentee Trends

But absentee trends definitely favor Republicans, even in Democratic counties, I believe. Am I wrong on this?

[John Q. Citizen]

6. Generally, yes, that's common wisdom, absentee, is usualy more

conservative. However, when were the absentee votes counted, how many were there statewide, and would they account for Bush's apparent win.

Either way, the registration above percentage of pop. of voting age is still an interesting phenomina. Could it be caused by people still on the voter rolls who no longer live in the county? I remember reading somewhere about Ohio purging inactive voters from their lists.



edit to remove a question that i answered myself, which is that the absentees would have been counted along with the rest of the vote or even early in the day. I remember Kerry saying that the provisionals and the "spoilage" wouldn't be enough, with no mention of absentee.

I wonder what the law regarding absentee voting is in Ohio.

[jhgatiss]

8. You are correct.

There are probably many instances of registration exceeding population. The Columbus Dispatch had a couple of articles about it in October. They said it came from people moving but failing to cancel registrations. They managed to do cross checks with a couple of states and found people living in Florida and New York registered in both places. (Yet another problem with our antiquated system that needs to be repaired!) I also read somewhere that they usually purge people after four years of inactivity but they had some Y2K updating to do that caused them to lose the initial registrationg dates (at least here in Franklin county). And I also believe they don't purge on election years so.... The long story short is that we have probably about 7-8 years of voters in Franklin county that haven't been struck due to inactivity. This phenomena could be active elsewhere to artificially inflate the registration numbers.

[freedom for all]

11. Could purged voters be used as bogus Absentee Ballots.

Would it be possible for someone like the SOS of a state to take a purged voter role for a State and turn them into absentee voters. If you had all their names and info could you just fill out their Absentee Ballots for them and forge their signatures. Then go to the local mail boxes all over the state and mail them in their county. How are absentee ballots cross checked for duplication in a state and outside a state to make sure people are not voting twice? In states with a paper trail this would be a good way to manufacture votes statewide. Of course depending on what kind of purged role you were using there might be patterns that arise. Like maybe poor urban democrats oddly voting republican. I think truehawk has a good idea to look at the ways absentee ballots can be manipulated or create phantom votes.

Since voter roles are off due to people moving and such would it be possible or realistic to do some studies based on voter age population like truehawk was talking about..Maybe there might be some weird pattern that surfaces. For example, lets take a county or a state. We could look at the newest population numbers(18 & older) for that county or state. Then look at the total number of possible voters vs total votes. Not sure what most studies say about the percent of people that vote. Lets say you have 250,000 votes for 1 county out of 350,000 possible/total voters. I think most studies show that only 45-50 of possible voters even vote. So out of a possible 350,000 voters you should have around 160,000 -175,000 votes or so...Now that 250,000 votes for that county looks funny.. Not sure if this type of study is possible or helpful but it could point out possible phantom votes or fraud..

[shaggy briard]

35. My suspicions exactly

in old chicago, mortality was no barrier to exercising your franchise. I think the high tech explanations are a little too elaborate and complicated to pull off -- why not just cheat the old fashioned way?

[tonyblair]

36. Envelopes!

A friend exposed ballot rigging in a trade union election back in the '70s. When he got hold of the envelopes that the ballots had been returned in, all were postmarked within a few minutes of each other from the same small village in England.

Now, how location-specific are your US postmarks? Down to the state? county? city? district? smaller area? Can you get them through via your FOIA?

BTW the perpetrator of this particular fraud is now a senior minister in Blair's government.

[newyawker99]

38. Hi tonyblair!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[tonyblair]

40. Hi to you too, NewYawker

I am up late in London. I have been (mostly) lurking since shortly after THAT result. However, if I can suggest something from a British perspective, I will do so.

I will also ask my friend exactly how that election was fixed. I know the envelopes were the proof.

If you pull off something BIG, we will demonstrate in Grosvenor Square to support you. We are all disenfranchised Americans now.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

41. the envelopes are most likely trashed (long ago) by now

but it's worth checking out. Thanks and welcome!

[RedOnce]

9. Ohio Precincts with more votes than voters

From: WhatReallyHappened.com and LibertyForum
List of Ohio Precincts where more votes were cast than there were voters
http://www.libertyforum.org/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=ll_chat&Number=293117839

[high density]

10. This was debunked a while ago

Please read this before forwarding to people: http://pages.ivillage.com/americans4america/id20.html

[freedom for all]

12. good articles but not related to my questions.

I have seen both those articles and i am aware of them but my questions had nothing to do with them unless i missed something.. Thank you for your help though..

[no1hedberg]

14. sneaky

You know it would seem a good way to fly under the radar if you were trying to use absentee to fix an election. If you pad your vote in a county that is heavily Kerry....As long as Kerry wins the county by a large margin who will look any closer. Also worthy of note is urban areas with large manufacturing bases took big hits from bushonomics. I'm sure many lost their jobs in the last 4 years and needed to move to find work. It's definitely something to look at. Keep digging the truth is in here somewhere.

[fasttense]

16. Double Votes In Ohio

This may explain why the actual vote count exceeded the voting population. My local paper (very pro-B*sh) carried a story Friday from AP Columbus, Ohio "two other counties have discovered possible cases of people voting twice in the presidential election. Prosecutors were trying to determine Wednesday whether charges should be filed against a couple in Madison County accused of voting twice."

Seems what these folks do is vote absentee ballot then turn around and vote again in the regular poles.

If this happened on a massive scale it would make the absentee ballot go to Bush and exceed your population counts.

[Starlight]

102. I don't know how other states do it...

but in NJ the absentee voters have the word "absentee voter" stamped in large letters in the poll book where there signature would go. So if an absentee ballot was mailed to you, you can't vote in person.

[robicat]

13. This of course would account for a part of the exit poll discrepencies.

This is exactly what Kerry's lawyers should be looking at.

[freedom for all]

17. purged roles every election

Ever election the repubs seem to be purging roles. This year they even sent out letters in Ohio i think to verify voters address by certified mail. If the certified came back unsigned they would challenge them at the polling place and turn their vote into a provisional ballot which most likely would get tossed out. I think in Florida or somewhere they sent letters out telling people they had been purged.. Awful nice of them. Maybe they wanted to make sure they did not show up to vote because the repubs done voted absentee for them. I wonder when & where absentee ballots are counted and entered into the system..

If this was done at the right time (mid day or so) it would not reflect on the first exit polls (ie. exit polls show Kerry winning)but later in the day when they were added them bam. I huge boast for bush and now he has the lead and wins. Both in 2000 & 2004 it was like he was going to lose and a miracle happens.. Somehow phantom votes appear or vote switching happens.. If anyone knows how the absentees ballots work, purged voter lists, and who has access to them please help.. Just wondering if this could even be done.

[truehawk]

18. kick

[truehawk]

19. We also need to compare the voter rolls with florida

Remember how the rethugs always accuse US of what THEY are doing???

I bet that a lot of their snowbirds voted both places.

Also need to look at past rolls for DOB changes, so people who are 144 are still on the rolls.

[freedom for all]

20. Who has control over absentee ballots

How are absentee ballots handled.. Who controls them before the election. How are they cross checked to make sure they are not double votes. Someone please read my earlier post and give me some info if absentee ballots could be used as bogus votes made up from purged voters. Help Please.

[freedom for all]

21. absentee ballots fly under the radar easily

In states where you have voting machines with paper trails, the absentee ballots and voter suppression would be the best way to steal an election.. We know about all the voter suppression like less machines in Dem polling places, to challenge voters only in high Dem areas, and more stuff like that..Then lets say you take 100-150 thousand purged voters & forge all the info for them and send in absentee ballots for them.. Plus you would make sure to have them mailed out in their home county. This would not really raise any red flags because the absentee ballots would come in all over the state like the rest of the absentee ballots. Plus other poll workers would not have any idea this was going on in their county. This type of fraud would limit the number of people who knew and easier to get away with. When voters come to the booth they sign the register before voting therefor we know they voted but how do we really know that an absentee ballot voter really even voted.

Seems like this is a perfect way to steal a close race. Plus depending on when you adding all those bogus absentee ballots you could get a big swing in the vote like the way bush has won the last 2 election. In Florida i think those no paper trail machines had votes added or flipped to give bush the bogus win but in Ohio with mostly paper machines the option are limited. The time line would also fit if those absentee ballots were added after the first exit polls came out. First you have Kerry ahead in early exit polls then bam all the sudden later in the day something happens and bush pulls ahead and wins Ohio.

Need questions answered please.

When and where are absentee ballots counted or added to the totals?
(ie. what time of day & in all precincts or just county headquarters)

Who has access to the absentee ballots and how are they sent out.

Who has access to a list of purged voters or inactive voters due to moving?

Could this be done by 1 person like the SOS of the state?

How can we check to make sure those absentee voters actually voted?

[kk897]

24. Dispatch article related?

I found a Dispatch article in my archives dated Oct 24, 2004 that says, in part:

"LONG GONE BUT STILL REGISTERED

Ohio’s Election Day rolls include people who couldn’t _ and shouldn’t _ vote

By Jon Craig THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

Ohio’s voter-registration rolls are dirty, containing more than 122,000 apparent duplicates as well as the names of people who moved out of state in the 1990s, a local murder victim and even a pair of accused terrorists."

So, about 122K possible purges, I guess. See Palast's work on the Florida purges... purge lists don't appear to be all that reliable. Who'd'a thunk it?!

(Sorry, don't have link)

[IAMREALITY]

22. FINALLY!!

Now THAT is exactly the type of investigative analysis we need. I have been here a few weeks now and this analysis is one of the best yet. Very smart concept.

Anybody working on this type of analysis in other states/counties?

By the way Mike Lewis, that is one hell of a first DU post. Great Job and welcome! TrueHawk, thanks for the visibility

[floridadem30]

23. kick

[kk897]

25. remember, too,

That Sondra Robinson, the woman in charge of absentee ballots for Cuyahoga County, resigned suddenly and inexplicably just a few days before the election. The absentee ballots were designed poorly in such a way as to confuse voters and make it more likely Kerry voters would accidentally vote for Bush.

[BlueDog2u]

26. Kick!

[shaggy briard]

27. Warren County too

I did the same analysis and on Warren County after the lockdown and concluded that voter registration exceeded 92% of VAP -- which is next to impossible. Given the high turnout there, it is certain that the vote totals were padded.
BTW did you use the 2000 census populations or the 2003 interim projections -- not that it will make a huge difference, but population did grow in many of these counties and so the newer numbers should be reflected.:yourock:

[republikkkon]

28. GREAT THREAD!

i hope people are looking into this!!

[freedom for all]

29. Population studies, possible voters & registration.

When doing this type of population studies we need pretty accurate figures from the census or another source. Maybe once those numbers are gotten their might be a way to get those numbers even closer by looking at new registered voters.. For example, If a county has a possible 100,000 voters of age who could vote in 2002 if registered. Lets say that only 45-50 percent of those people actual get registered and vote. That would be around 45,000-50,000 total votes for that county..

Then we could look at new registered voters for that county since 2002.
Lets say we have 10,000 new registered voters. But before you add that number to any totals you must first look at any correlation between 2000 & 2004 election for registered voters..so lets say in 2000 we had 60,000 registered voters and only 40,000 votes.. In 2004 we had 70,000 registered voters and 50,000 votes..I would conclude that we really did have 10,000 extra voters vote in that county.. ie the registered vote went up by 10,000 and so did the actual total votes went up by 10,000...

But what if the numbers in 2004 are more like 70,000 registered voters but only 40,000 total votes..i would conclude that we did have 10,000 new registered voters but we also somehow lost 10,000 votes due to people moving and their name still on the role. Then there would be no net gain or loss when considering new registered voters..

Ok, taking this into consideration lets look at the county again for a population study vs actual votes of voters of age to vote..ok they have 100,000 of age voters and 50% get registered and vote.. We should have 50,000 total votes for that county. Lets say we then look at that county for the real number of votes cast and that county has 75,000 votes..Something must be wrong..That would mean that 75% of age people did vote..Thats not possible i don't think..Sometimes we may get confused when we hear there was a 75% turnout but they are talking about registered voters only and not the general population..

I think this could be a way to find counties or states that had a bunch of phantom votes like suggested in Berkley study..I think these type of studies would be more useful in places like Florida where they have machines with no paper ballots but could be used anywhere..

I know this is hard to understand so if you have any questions just ask.

[jdog]

30. Other states?

Is it possible to make this kind of analysis for other states - like Florida? NM?

[shaggy briard]

31. Not so hard

Point is that in Warren County, population increased by 23,000 from 2000 to 2003 (probably only 72% adults) -- voter registration was already high at 82% in 2000 and increased by 28,600 since 2000 -- much more than the population of the county increased. I think that this is impossible. Turnout, already high at 72% increased by 2% to 74% but produced 18,000 more votes for Bush than in 2000 -- Kerry votes went up by 6,200 over Gore's totals -- for 24,200 more total votes in 2004 in a county which had total population gain of 15,000 adults and a high voter turnout already. I smell a rat

[jdog]

32. I may be slow

but I smell one too.

[roseBudd]

33. Contact the reporters at the Cincinnati Enquirer that broke or

wrote the coverage of the Warren County BoE lockdown on Nov. 2.

That would be:

Erica Solvig [email protected]

Dan Sewell [email protected]

Dan Horn [email protected]

cc Ron Leibau [email protected]

and Howard Wilkinson [email protected]

Phone numbers can be found here:

http://www.enquirer.com/staff/contact.html

[lizzieforkerry]

105. I POSTED ON THIS AFTER THE ELECTION BUT WAS

CRUCIFIED. In Warren county a lot of Republicans received UNREQUESTED absentee BALLOTS (not absentee request forms) actual BALLOTS. My friend received one and called the BoE because she wanted to vote at the polls and it says on the absentee BALLOT that you cannot vote at the polls if you receive an absentee BALLOT. The BoE told her she can still vote at the polls "don't worry about it". There was no stamp next to her name on the rolls. I have talked to several others who also received BALLOTS. I will say it again-They stole Ohio, at least rural Ohio through absentee ballots. In my precinct we had 761 people vote at the polls and 68 absentee ballots- almost 10% and it isn't a very elderly neighborhood. This seems very high to me.

[On the Road]

116. Some People Paid Attention, Lizzie

I remember your post and it was a very interesting report.

I think one thing that drew fire was that your friend made a leap to assume that ALL republicans in Ohio got absentee ballots. That seems like a stretch. But it could easily have been a certain county or other subset of Republicans.

Anecdotal reports of this kind are really, really valuable, and need to be followed up on to see where they go.

[mikelewis]

118. The fraud would only need to be a few thousand per county...

If they paded the votes by 2500 votes per county (more in some and less in others), this would be hard to catch but would amount to 220,00 extra votes for Bush. This would guarantee a victory and limit the exposure. I guess the proof will be in the pudding. Once the data is collected and analyzed we'll find out if this was done. If the proportion of absentee votes is the reason he won then we can glean this from the county data.


Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[lizzieforkerry]

155. Which stats did you use? 2000 or 2003?

Warren County has been one of the fastest growing counties in Ohio for the last 4 years (one of the main reasons I don't believe Kerry and Gore got the exact same percentage)

[mikelewis]

157. No, we can't expect the same results from one election to the next

But we should be able to gauge the shift and find some reason to explain why Warren county shifted it's voter base.

For instance, I believe it is the Mayor of Warrren who is a Democrat but was a huge Bush supporter. He was very vocal in his support and this may have attributed to a vote shift. These are the things we are looking for as an explaination. It's not going to be perfect. Just close enough to give us a picture.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[mikelewis]

39. City of Cleveland Review of Voter Registrations

City of Cleveland Review of Voter Registrations

For the City of Cleveland



According to the U.S. Census Estimates for 2003, Cleveland has a population of 424,948

Source http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Products/Profiles/Single/...



The number of persons over the age of 18 is



TABLE 1. GENERAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS FOR 2003

18 years and over

Estimate 307,643

Lower Bound 292,998

Upper Bound 322,288

Population, percent change, April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 is
-2.1%
Source : http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39035.html


The Adjusted Population for 2004 should be lower by -0.7% which will give me the following figures
TABLE 2. ADJUSTED DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS FOR 2004

18 years and over
Estimate 305489

Lower Bound 290947

Upper Bound 320,031

The current total of registered voters is 323,202

Source http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/BOE/results/currentresults...



This equates to an overage of voters as compared to people of voting age by the following numbers

TABLE 3.
Difference between Table 1 & 2

Estimate 17,713

Lower Bound 32,255

Upper Bound 3,171


The percent of registered voters verses people who are of voting age and who are not registered is 105.8% using the median estimated population of the City of Cleveland. But even at the lower bound, damn.

TABLE 4.


Estimate 105.8%
Lower Bound 101.0%
Upper Bound 111.1%



Source: http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/BOE/results/currentresults...

---------------

BTW People, you have inspired me and reinstated my faith in this country. You have no idea how despondent I have grown over the state of affairs of the past years. At times, I have felt alone and weak but with your voices joined with mine, I believe we can shake the very foundations of this earth and set right all the wrongs where we put our will. Thank you from the bottom of my heart. My service to my country and my countrymen begins today. I am sorry it took so long for me to show up for the fight. Yet, I am here now and I am not weak. If we should lose this battle, rest assured, you have one more ally that you can count on in those that follow. I feel ashamed that I did not even concern myself with this struggle until it loomed so large, I had to take notice. Shame only lasts so long and has been replaced with a terrible resolve. I am here and I will follow those people of good conscience and good will who have fought when I refused. I will not let the dream of America fade without a fight and I will teach my children to hold sacred this gift that I took so lightly. Thank you.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[freedom for all]

42. what percent of adults vote

great work Michael,

I feel the same way you do.. DU, Randi & all the people here is what keeps me going.. I had thought the whole country just didn't care or had been brainwashed..

I just realized what i was looking for and trying to find out was the percent of the adult population that actually voted in a state or county in 2004 if possible...I was using registered voters from 2000 & 2004 just to make the population numbers more accurate if possible.

Once we have good population numbers for a county or state then we can just compare it to the actual number of votes cast for a race..

=================================================================
What is the population of Cuyahoga Country (of age voters only)

estimate -- 1,068,880 Total votes fro Pres -- 650,553

If my figures are right that means that around 61% of the population actual registered and voted for president in this county...

Now for Senator -- 1,068,880 total voes for Senator -- 618,223

thats 58% who registered and voted for Senater..

==================================================================
I thought that only 45-50% of the population even bother to vote..
My numbers for population don't take into account many factors like illegal immigrants, felons, and other people who by law can't vote but live in the county..If the population number goes down then the % of people who registered and voted would go up..Which means those numbers (58 & 61) would go up..

The numbers seem kinda high already and this is type of study does not show any proof of fraud its just a way to find any anomalies that stand out..It might show a sign of phantom votes..

I got the population numbers from this web site (http://www.epodunk.com/cgi-bin/popInfo.php?locIndex=16584)

I got the numbers of votes cast from the cuyahoga web site..

=================== kinda weird how their were so many more votes for president than for senetar..

[sandnsea]

52. people move, die, etc.

I was reading a totally unrelated article on voter registration and the county election official said it wouldn't be hard to get more registered voters than population. People don't update their registrations. They die, they move within the same county and re-register, they don't take their name off when they move to another state, all kinds of things. I ran across alot of people who had died or moved when I was doing phone banking. You have to calculate that into your analysis too.

[mikelewis]

60. That's true but look at the turnout

Take Delaware County because this seems to be the most ridiculous I have found so far. In Delaware there is 105.6% registration of the persons of voting age and a 79.16% voter turnout.

This data suggests that the voter turnout in Delaware county would actually be higher than 79.16%? Does this seem feasible?

Let's adjust this percent of persons registered down to 100%, which is ridiculous but I guess theoretically possible.

You have, as of 2003, 95,348 persons of voting age.


The change in population over 3 years is +0.1% so there will be very little change to this number so we'll stay with this estimate.


There were 79,691 ballots cast in this county, I'm not sure if they add in the provisional ballots to this total so I will assume that they do, they don't in Cuyahoga but I don't know.

This would suggest an 83.58% voter turnout.


Now let's say only 90% of the people are registered to vote.
This would be 85,813 persons registered
79,691 ballots

This would be a 92.9% voter turnout. This is simply ridiculous but I guess possible. I'm not the judge but hopefully you might get to be the jury.

Thanks
Michael Lewis

[RageKage]

63. we know what the turnout was, you dont need to assume

I got 82.9% voter/voting age pop for Deleware.

That is not extremely high. It was 70.2% in 2000

[mikelewis]

64. How did you arrive at this number? Please correct me.

Could you show me how to arrive at this percentage?

I must be doing something terribly wrong.

I thought that you simple take the number of people subtract the percent of people under 18 and this gives you the persons of voting age. I then divided the registered voters into this number and got 105.6%.

I must be doing something terribly wrong. Please show me how you arrived at your percentage.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[RageKage]

66. the 105.6% is not the problem.

But that doesn't mean anything.

You get the turnout of Voting age population by dividing the number of votes, by the voting age population.

Thats how I got my numbers posted on this thread.

[mikelewis]

67. But where are you getting your voting age pop info from?

I don't understand.

If you are saying that your turnout numbers are correct based on the number of persons of voting age, where are you getting this number?

If you are pulling it from the census, are you adjusting these figures for the percent of people under 18.

This is from the census
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39041.html



People QuickFacts Delaware County
Population, 2003 estimate 132,797
Population, percent change, April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 20.7%
Population, 2000 109,989
Population, percent change,1990 to 2000 64.3%
Persons under 5 years old, percent, 2000 7.9%
Persons under 18 years old, percent, 2000 28.2%
Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2000 8.2%
Female persons, percent, 2000 50.5%



I took 132,797 people and subtract 28.2% to arrive at 95,348 since people under 18 can't vote.

I then went to this site
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html

and they had listed 100,676 registered voters.

I divided the 100,676 by 95,348 and arrived at 105.6%.

This is impossible since you cannot have this many persons registered to vote in a county that does not have this many people who are eligible to register to vote. So I assume that the voter turnout numbers must be incorrect. Where am I going wrong? I swear, I am not trying to be dense or have to much pride to admit when I am wrong. Show me where I am wrong. Please.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[RageKage]

73. we are using the same pop numbers

I used the 2000 census numbers

and the census projections for July 2003

(for Deleware '03 I had 94,925)

This issue of registration exceeding voting age population has been addressed by the Secretary of State. There are tons of "inactive voters" who have moved and registered somewhere else or died, but have not been removed from the voter rolls.

Here is a news story on this from October. They say in Franklin County, for instance, at least 227,000 registrations are thought to be invalid.

http://www.dispatch.com/election/election-local.php?story=dispatch/2004/10/24/20041024-A1-00.html

[sandnsea]

72. Yes I know

But it's just critically important to have all the information if somebody gets hold of your analysis, factor it in BEFORE it gets to the media. That's all.

[truehawk]

43. That gives lots of wiggle room for padding the Rethug vote

[Spongebob76]

44. Connecting the Dots

From what I have seen/read so far: The election has been stolen.
But from a criminal investigators view, how can we prove it?
I am still trying to connect the dots.
Considering the new development in New Hampshire where the GOP candidate "lost" 36 votes in the recount I really think we need to look out for "extra" Bush votes rather than finding more votes for Kerry.

Please correct me if the following is wrong but didn't the news media report that Rove was sitting in the "war room" in his office at election night where he was "monitoring" the election.
What if he had a secret password to adjust the vote in each state/county/precinct just as needed?

I am a computer programmer myself and think that voting should not be done on any kind of machine.

[mikelewis]

45. Cuyahoga County Voter Registration Info

According to the Census Bureau the estimated population of Cuyahoga County Ohio is 1,363,888 as of 2003

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39035.html

The number of persons under 18 is 25% which equates to 340,972 ineligible voters

This means that there are only 1,022,916 eligible voters in Cuyahoga County

According to the website for the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/boe/results/CurrentResults1.htm

The Number of Registered voters is 1,005,807


The percent of registered voters versus eligible voters is 98%.


County Comparison Expanded to Include 2001 Data



Percent of Ballots Cast excluding provisional which have not been counted for 2004

Cuyahoga
2000 37.40% 2004 66.15%

[mikelewis]

46. Licking County Registration Data

According to the Census Bureau the estimated population of Licking County Ohio is 150,634 as of 2003

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39089.html

The number of persons under 18 is 28.2% which equates to 39,164 persons below voting age

This means that there are only 111,496 persons of voting age in Licking County

According to the website for the Licking County Board of Elections

http://www.lcounty.com/boe/results/current_results.php

The Number of Registered voters is 111,387


The percent of registered voters versus eligible voters is 100.7%.

Voter Turnout 2000 and 2004

2000 40.40%

2004 70.81%
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/11-02-04.htm

(You believe this? Check it out for yourselves. I damn sure don't and I compiled the numbers and like Santa, I checked it twice.)

[Iceburg]

115. Licking County: % of persons under 18 is 26% not 28.2%

in April 2000 as per http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39089.html

150,634 * .74 = 111,469

Population, percent change, April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 is 3.4%
8 months April 2000 to Dec 2000 (incl)
12 months Jan 2001 to Dec 2001 (incl)
12 months Jan 2002 to Dec 2002 (incl)
6 months Jan 2003 to June 2003 (incl)
--
38 months population changed 3.4 % (.034 change in 38 months ~ .000895/month)

There are 17 months in the period July 1, 2003 to Nov 1, 2004
.000895 x 17 = 2291 increase in population, (.74 or 1696 persons of voting age)

Based on those estimates, we would have 111,469 + 1696 = 113,165 eligible voters on Nov 1,2004

According to http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/11-02-04.htm we have 111,387 registered voters

Bottom line, even when we estimate an increase in population using census data (population change) we still end up with the stunning data that 99% of the eligible voters (113,165) registered to vote (111,387)

[mikelewis]

119. Excellent... That's what I'm looking for.

We should also find data on upper bound and lower bound estimates if this is available.

You'd have to agree that 99% of the people of voting age registered is a bit suspect.

Thanks so much,
Michael Lewis

[Iceburg]

121. Yes, I do find many of my findings suspect ...

but #1 .. I do not live in the area and have no knowledge of
Ohio election practices, boundary changes, precinct-specific
behaviours etc, and local politics.  

That said, I am a Canadian who has spent more than 20 years
working in the election planning and delivery business here in
Canada and abroad. 

There are many legitimate reasons why these numbers could defy
logic:

1) The number of registered voters is wrong
   # 1 Possible Reason:
      - very poor registration management (ineligible or 
      inactive voters not being purged from the roll)

2) The estimate of eligible voters is wrong. Estimating 
   population growth is not an exact science and is 
   prone to errors in methodology, mathematics and 
   typos and REALITY.
  
   Take Nobe County, Ohio for example. According to the 
   US Census, Noble was growing at a very rapid pace. 
   In a 10 year period it increased its population by 
   24% then suddenly in the 38 month period between 
   April 1, 2000 and July 1,2003 it seemingly 
   decreased its population by 4 persons (recorded 
   as Z on the Census site). Now that didn't make sense 
   to me until I spied the % Female population for 2000 
   --- its only 43.3% !!!!!!!! ...

   I follow the bread crumbs wherever they take me and this 
   one led me to ...

	15708 State Route 78 West
	Caldwell, Ohio 43724
	Noble Correctional Institution
		Security Level: 2
		Total Acreage: 164
		Date Opened: 1996
		Population as of 8/04: 2168


  Time Series of Ohio Intercensal Population Estimates 
  by County: April 1, 1990 to April 1, 2000
 
http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/2000s/vintage_2001/CO-EST2001-12/CO-EST2001-12-39.html

   
  http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39121.html
  People QuickFacts                                    
                               Noble County    Ohio 
  Population, 2003 estimate       14,054    11,435,798 
  Population, percent change, 
    April 1, 2000 to July 1,2003     Z         0.7% 
  Population, 2000                14,058    11,353,140 
  Population, percent change, 
    1990 to 2000                   24.0%       4.7% 
  Persons under 5 years old, 
    percent, 2000                  5.0%        6.6% 
  Persons under 18 years old, 
    percent, 2000                  22.6%       25.4% 
  Persons 65 years old and 
    over, percent, 2000            13.1%       13.3% 
  Female persons, percent,2000     43.3%       51.4% 

Having said that I will continue my search at the poll-level
because that's where my experience and instincts lead me.
Nevertheless, it is an equally important exercise to look at
all other levels of granularity -- higher levels: precincts,
counties and lower levels: machine level.   

[mikelewis]

122. Canadians Rock!!! Excellent information, I never concidered this.

My question then is this. The population of Noble county as of 2003 is 14,054 and the population hasn't changed much over the past 3 years so we can use the same number for 2004. The number of persons under 18 is 22.6% so the number of people of voting age would be 10,878.

If the population in this prison is 2168 then we would have to subtract this number from the total POV because these people are ineligible to vote. The new total of persons eligible and and of voting age is 8710.

How do they have 8,879 listed as the number of registered voters? This is slightly over 100%. We also have 6,715 votes which means 75% of the people in the county voted. 75 Provisional ballots were cast here, does this mean 6,790 people voted? How many were turned away from the polls? How many absentee ballots were recieved in this county? How many were recieved after Nov 2nd and what effect did this have on the vote?

I am looking for these answers so I can find out if the precinct totals make any sense. How many were registered per precinct? How many voted per precinct? What was the absentee counts as it applies to these precincts? How many Jehovah's Witness do we have in this county (I have been told that they do not vote)? How many Amish voters are in this county? How many people do we have that refuse to vote for religeous purposes? What is the voting trend over the past decade and is there an discenable deviation from this pattern?

I am not a voting expert in any respect. I am fumbling my way through this but I want these questions answered and I think we need to get very specific in our research. How do we obtain this information? How do we tabulate it in a coherent fashion? This is what I want to know.

If anyone can help me in this, I would appreciate it. I thank you for this information, I really do. This is exactly the help I am looking for.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[Iceburg]

137. Mike I am more than willing to work with you and a few others

While I am certain this type of work is being done by the
Dems, the Green party and BBV it does hurt to establish a more
independent analysis. I did volunteer with BBV but haven't
heard back from them ... they were under severe cyber attack
for days at the time so my offer my have gone into the ether.

While I do enjoy some of the posts at DU it is now a haven for
trolls who are very skilled in diversionary tactics. Thus this
forum is not the "workplace" of choice ... better to
set-up a closed forum on another site or simply use email to
exchange data and ideas.

Here's a list of "human" resources we will need: 
----------------------------------------------------
1.  candidate(s) or designate(s) to acquire and share 
    the state's poll-by-poll election results (4) 
    (I understand that this info is not available 
    to the General Public. A few canvas results have 
    been posted but it is not enough to perform
    any meaning full analysis.
2.  person(s) (not necessarily statisticians) 
    familiar with the US census data (4)*
3.  person(s) very knowledgeable about Ohio 
    politics & its geography (4)
4.  legal beagles familiar with Ohio state 
    & county laws as it relates to elections (2)
5.  number crunchers/statisticians (4)*
6.  Cartographer/Map-makers (2)*
7.  Chart artists/scientists (2)
8.  Data modeler(2)* 
9.  Database managers (2)*
10.  Data converters (4)*
11. Writers (2)
12. Project manager & Assistant PM (2)*

(x)denotes number of persons required
 * Denotes at least one person has been identfied for 
   that position but not necessarily approached for 
   a committment.


Information we need in (preferably in e-format)
---------------------------------------------------
- county by county census data
- list of registered voters 1990 thru to 2004
- poll by poll Presidential, Senate, Governor election 
  results 1990 thu to 2004
- details of the re-districting changes from 2000 to 2004
- state legislative documents concerning Ohio election law
- state and county policy documents regarding election 
  practices and procedures (ballot handling, counting, voter
  registration, machine certification, machine allocation,
- exit poll data
- voting method by poll


Skills Needed
-------------
Since the job before requires massive collection and
subsequent manipulation (in a good sense) of data we require
most of the team members to be familiar with:

 - spreadsheets (Excel, Lotus, or others)
 - statistical software (Excel plug-ins, SPSS etc)
 - database (recommend Access due to availability and ease of
use)
 - outlook task manager/combined with MS Project


My expertise
-------------
 - data modeling, 
 - db management, 
 - proj management, 
 - stats (3 on a scale 0 to 5 ...not an expert)
 - data conversion


While other concerned citizens are rightfully looking at more
overt subversion activities such as voter suppression. My
ultimate goal is to review the elusive numbers ...ALL numbers
to see whether or not they lie within the realms of
probability. For example:
- Eligible voters vs Registered Voters
- Votes Cast vs Eligible voters
- Provisional votes cast vs poll votes
- Absentee votes vs poll counts

All analyzed in the context of historical data and
technology/method used to record the vote.
 
What are your thoughts on this Mike? Perhaps you had something
else in mind?

[mikelewis]

140. Im in, and I will follow your lead since you got the creds

I will start with providing the census data on a county by county basis. I will also make adjustments for 2004 if you wish.

I can also look up the Prisons in Ohio and include them in these county totals on a subsequent post. Excellent call btw.

I will have it in excel but I also think we should post here as well so people can follow and help. Yes, there are some that will try to derail this but screw em. There are so many others that can handle different tasks. I have to work until 7 tonight so I should have the first batch of numbers posted @ 1 or 2 am.


I currently have many spreadsheets that Kucinich's Office posted at http://www.dakotatechnics.com/downloads/
They need a lot of work so it might be best to start over from scratch. I will post a list of ones that I have that have not been posted and we can see if any are viable.

Thank you for doing this,
Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[banjobob2]

153. Canadians Rock!!! Excellent information, I never concidered this

Yes you have not considered this because you are as stupid as our socialist to the North. Ohio show cross county congressional votes in each county. Every two years, congressional seats are for two year terms, counties often show more than a 100% turnout.

[mikelewis]

158. Stupid is a stupid does... Oh how great it must be to know everything

It is a wonder that we mere fools even get to vote... oh wait, we don't so I guess we should dhut up and just do whatever you say.

Your point has no relevance and it is simply an arrogant elitist thing to say. My response was in reference to the prison population affecting the registration data and has no relevance to House or any other type of political seat unless you are considering the dabate that has been waged for the past years concerning how to apportion seats based on the prison population. See, the people who benefit from these populations are the ones who have seats in our government that are based on population. I was simply unaware and I guess stupid. But since, you know everything there is to know, could you kindly enlighten on the topic of fucking yourself? I am too stupid to do this so I invite you to participate in this activity as an example so we all might follow.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[RageKage]

49. um, I dont follow your data...

this is what I get

2004
votes: 652,381
Registered: 1,005,807
Turnout: 63.75%
Est. Pop, 18+(Jul 03): 1,023,410

2000
votes: 574,782
Registered: 1,010,726
Turnout: 54.95%
pop, 18+: 1,045,988


States from census, and Ohio sos.

[mikelewis]

51. This is voting age population that is registered, your data is turnout

The data I am submitting is the number of people who are old enough to vote that are registered. In many cases, this number is over 100% so therefore the turnout percentage must be wrong. There cannot be this many people registered to vote as this exceeds the voting age population. Therefor if less people are actually registered then the turnout percentage should be higher.

Case in point. In Cleveland the percentage of registered voters compared to persons of voting age is 105%. This is impossible so there must be some unknown adjustment made to lower this percentage to the real number of registered voters, whatever that might be. This lower number when divided into the amount of people who cast ballots would yeild a higher voter turnout percentage.

[RageKage]

54. but whats the point?

How do you get the lower number? Isnt it an unknown adjustment?

[Woody Box]

58. "Inactive voters"

Long gone but still registered

Ohio’s Election Day rolls include people who couldn’t—and shouldn’t—vote

Ohio’s voter-registration rolls are dirty, containing more than 122,000 apparent duplicates as well as the names of people who moved out of state in the 1990s, a local murder victim and even a pair of accused terrorists.

/snip/

Franklin County has more than 227,000 inactive voters — about a quarter of the county’s registered voters.

Voters are labeled "inactive" once they have failed to vote in two federal-election cycles and don’t respond to confirmation cards. Almost 1.9 million of Ohio’s more than 8.5 million registered voters haven’t cast a ballot since at least 1999, the Dispatch analysis found.


http://www.dispatch.com/election/election-local.php?story=dispatch/2004/10/24/20041024-A1-00.html

[Woody Box]

53. try again

Mike is not talking about the actual voter turnout:

The number of persons under 18 is 25% which equates to 340,972 ineligible voters

This means that there are only 1,022,916 eligible voters in Cuyahoga County

According to the website for the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/boe/results/CurrentResults1.htm

The Number of Registered voters is 1,005,807

So we have:

1,022,916 elible voters (EV)
1,005,807 registered voters (RV); RV/EV=98%
652,381 actual votes (V); V/RV=63,75%

[RageKage]

56. I've done this...

That I get, its his 2000 numbers I dont understand.

pop18+ = census 2000, and census estimates for July 03


		2004	2000
		votes/  votes/
		pop18+  pop18+

STATE OF OHIO	64.3%	55.6%
.Adams		56.9%	50.8%
.Allen		59.4%	54.5%
.Ashland	61.0%	54.5%
.Ashtabula	58.4%	52.0%
.Athens		52.2%	50.1%
.Auglaize	65.9%	59.0%
.Belmont	60.0%	54.9%
.Brown		61.9%	53.7%
.Butler		63.6%	55.5%
.Carroll	62.5%	56.8%
.Champaign	62.6%	54.6%
.Clark		63.0%	53.1%
.Clermont	65.2%	54.5%
.Clinton	58.3%	50.5%
.Columbiana	57.3%	52.4%
.Coshocton	58.3%	52.8%
.Crawford	62.0%	54.4%
.Cuyahoga	63.7%	55.0%
.Darke		65.8%	59.2%
.Defiance	62.2%	56.0%
.Delaware	82.9%	70.2%
.Erie		65.4%	58.5%
.Fairfield	68.8%	60.2%
.Fayette	54.8%	43.7%
.Franklin	62.8%	51.7%
.Fulton		71.0%	62.6%
.Gallia		57.6%	54.8%
.Geauga		73.9%	65.4%
.Greene		66.5%	57.9%
.Guernsey	53.2%	51.2%
.Hamilton	66.8%	60.3%
.Hancock	63.3%	57.8%
.Hardin		54.2%	49.9%
.Harrison	66.8%	58.7%
.Henry		70.1%	62.6%
.Highland	58.6%	51.8%
.Hocking	60.8%	51.1%
.Holmes		41.9%	36.5%
.Huron		58.0%	50.1%
.Jackson	57.0%	51.7%
.Jefferson	63.2%	59.6%
.Knox		61.7%	51.9%
.Lake		68.4%	59.5%
.Lawrence	57.6%	52.0%
.Licking	69.8%	58.0%
.Logan		61.2%	54.7%
.Lorain		63.7%	53.4%
.Lucas		64.1%	55.8%
.Madison	55.8%	48.4%
.Mahoning	67.9%	58.1%
.Marion		56.6%	49.6%
.Medina		71.3%	61.0%
.Meigs		59.7%	55.8%
.Mercer		69.6%	63.5%
.Miami		67.7%	58.5%
.Monroe		66.6%	61.3%
.Montgomery	65.9%	54.9%
.Morgan		59.3%	53.9%
.Morrow		65.8%	55.9%
.Muskingum	60.3%	52.1%
.Noble		59.4%	55.0%
.Ottawa		72.2%	63.5%
.Paulding	67.2%	60.2%
.Perry		59.7%	52.4%
.Pickaway	57.1%	44.4%
.Pike		60.0%	52.3%
.Portage	63.8%	54.2%
.Preble		66.3%	58.0%
.Putnam		76.3%	71.1%
.Richland	62.9%	54.5%
.Ross		55.0%	46.7%
.Sandusky	69.8%	56.4%
.Scioto		58.9%	50.0%
.Seneca		62.1%	56.0%
.Shelby		64.2%	57.5%
.Stark		64.5%	56.3%
.Summit		65.9%	55.3%
.Trumbull	63.2%	56.5%
.Tuscarawas	61.5%	54.7%
.Union		70.2%	57.5%
.Van west	67.2%	60.3%
.Vinton		60.3%	52.8%
.Warren		70.2%	60.3%
.Washington	61.3%	54.8%
.Wayne		62.2%	52.4%
.Williams	62.8%	55.0%
.Wood		65.1%	56.5%
.Wyandot	62.6%	57.8%

[mikelewis]

62. 2000 data figures? Maybe I am wrong...

On the Sec. of State website they have historical election data from 2000. I got it from there.

I don't see how the census could have these numbers as votes for 18+ people when these percentages are wrong according to thier own data.

Maybe I'm doing the math wrong, but I don't think so. Dennis Kucinich has sent my info to statisticians and they are checking into it. Hell, I've been wrong before so if you can tell me where I am going wrong, I'll check it out.

I really will. I only want to produce solid data but I am not a mathematician or a statistician. Without Excel, I'd be dead in the water. It doesn't appear that your numbers actually reflect the Voting age population or they are reflecting voter turnout. I have no idea.

I went to the census, found the estimated number of people, subtracted the percent under 18 and then divided this by the number the Secretary of State says it has of registered voters. If this is a wrong way to do it, tell me how and I will rework them. I am doing for all the counties anyway. These are just some of the worst. There are many others in the high 90%'s.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[mikelewis]

47. Subject: 105.6% Voter Registration Delaware County

Subject: 105.6% Voter Registration Delaware County
Message:
According to the Census Bureau the estimated population of Delaware County Ohio is 132,797 as of 2003

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39041.html

The number of persons under 18 is 28.2% which equates to 37,449 ineligible voters

This means that there are only 95,348 eligible voters in Delaware County



According to the website for the Delaware County Board of Elections

http://www.co.delaware.oh.us/boe/results.htm

The Number of Registered voters is 100,676



The percent of registered voters versus eligible voters is 105.6%.

Voter Turnout 2000 to 2004

2000 27.4%

2004 79.16%

[mikelewis]

48. Voter Registration Putnam County 100.6%

According to the Census Bureau the estimated population of Putnam County Ohio is 34,754 as of 2003

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39137.html



The number of persons under 18 is 29.7% which equates to 10,3221 children

This means that there are only 24,432 persons of voting age in Putnam County

According to the website for the Putnam County Board of Elections

http://putnam.noacsc.org/county/results.txt

The Number of Registered voters is 24,579

The percentage of voter registration in Putnam County is 100.6%

Voter Turnout 2000 to 2004

2000 41.6%


2004 77.11%

[mikelewis]

50. registration 103.7% voter / 163,771 new registered voters Franklin County

Subject: 103.7% voter registration/ 163,771 new registered voters Franklin County
Message:

Message:
Franklin County Ohio

Website available for the Board of Elections for Franklin County

http://www.franklincountyohio.gov/boe/content/election /...



This is very odd. The Board of Elections states that no information is available yet they are the only large county that has not posted their information on the net. Does anyone know how the Freedom of Information Act can get me this information? I am looking for precinct voter registration and precinct voter ballot tallies.



Information was pulled from

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html

County Name Franklin
Total Precincts 788
Total Registered Voters 845,720
Total Votes Cast 515,472
Percentage of Votes Cast 60.95%
Provisional Ballots Issued 14,446



According to the Census Bureau the estimated population of Franklin County Ohio is 1,088,944 as of 2003

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39049.html

The number of persons under 18 is 25.1% which equates to 273,325 persons below voting age

This means that there are 815,619 people of voting age in Franklin County

According to the above information the number of registered voters is 845,720

The percent of registered voters versus eligible voters is 103.7%.

3 year Population migration 1.9%


Voter Turnout 2000 to 2004

2000 22.8% 681,949 Registered

2004 60.95% 845,720 Rgeistered

38.15% higher turnout and 163,771 new voters

[Woody Box]

55. Hmm...did Blackwell forget bothering about the "inactive voters"?

The inactives are a key reason the number of registered voters in at least seven Ohio counties — including Franklin, Cuyahoga and Licking — exceeds the estimated votingage population. Franklin County tops the list, with at least 30,000 more registered voters than residents who are at least 18 years old.

/snip/

Damschroder and Carlo Lo-Paro, spokesman for Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, said there are procedures in place to assure people don’t vote under the names of inactive voters Nov. 2.

http://www.dispatch.com/election/election-local.php?story=dispatch/2004/10/24/20041024-A1-00.html

[RageKage]

57. the stopped the purge

I read somewhere they stopped the purge of inactive voters this year. Because there were questions raised about voter suppression.

[Woody Box]

59. Now THAT's interesting

They suppress legitimate voters where they can (challengers; insufficient vote machines in strong Democrat precincts; conditions for provisional ballots etc.), but they back away from purging the voter list of people not allowed to vote.

Btw, are they growing bananas in Ohio?

[mikelewis]

61. No, people don't even talk about the election

It's odd, I am an installer so when I go into a customers home, guess what topic comes up? I ask, "Did you hear about the vote?"

Every single person says, "No"

It isn't long before they hear all about though, lol.

One woman told me that the reason is that people are so disappointed that they just can't talk about. She said she cried so hard when Kerry conceded she didn't leave her bathroom for over a half hour.

All the stories are like this. It's sad but after I get done with them, well, let's just say the tears are gone.

The problem is that the newspapers and the tv news are reinforcing the Bush win so hard and Kerry is doing nothing to bolster thier spirits. It's hard but I'll keep trying.

[fliesincircles]

69. Your 2000 turnout numbers are low.

Make sure you are not looking at the 2000 PRIMARY turnout. Look at the 2000 GENERAL turnout.

[PATRICK]

65. Yes, in Florida 2000

Many of these issues just slid by, ignoring all sorts of padding and other forms of balloting in the haste to mine a few worthy causes for Gore votes. THEN they used that cherry picking that abandoned other fertile areas to accuse Gore of fishing for partial recounts and ignoring the state!

Making life miserable for them must include hitting ALL areas, although obviously some Will have different results or difficulties.

And where is the crunch point for a spoiled election anyway? Simply because the unquestionable ballots don't give Kerry a clean win doesn't mean he wasn't victimized and the legal loser.

And WHEN are we going to include the Civil Rights issues so long as the whole picture is being taken into account. I don't see why we have to look as they need "protecting" from being the ones to knock Bush down. Somehow I don't think they mind at this point. I know it is being addressed somewhat in the voters' complaints procedures, but somewhere it should be launched to increase the punch through effect. Being "Gored" means surrendering or limiting all the way down as the clock runs out on the "game" and it centers on a small dramatic handful of ballots on a single issue. That is unjust and stupid and reduces victory back to the game and not the injustice. Gore NEVER got credit for fighting an unfair and crooked result. And the Senate paternalistically never allowed the Black Caucus to address the real crying issues either.

[banjobob2]

151. Gore in 2000

Many news sources recounted the votes in 2000 and Bush still won, get over it and look to the future.

[mikelewis]

152. Yeah, you're right, sorry for bothering you

[mikelewis]

68. Please, someone correct me

This is how I arrived at my data for these counties. Please take a moment and review my numbers and show me how to tabulate this information correctly. I used Delaware county in this example.



This is from the census
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39041.html



People QuickFacts Delaware County
Population, 2003 estimate 132,797
Population, percent change, April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 20.7%
Population, 2000 109,989
Population, percent change,1990 to 2000 64.3%
Persons under 5 years old, percent, 2000 7.9%
Persons under 18 years old, percent, 2000 28.2%
Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2000 8.2%
Female persons, percent, 2000 50.5%



I took 132,797 people and subtract 28.2% to arrive at 95,348 since people under 18 can't vote.

I then went to this site
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html

and they had listed 100,676 registered voters.

I divided the 100,676 by 95,348 and arrived at 105.6%.

This is impossible since you cannot have this many persons registered to vote in a county that does not have this many people who are eligible to register to vote. So I assume that the voter turnout numbers must be incorrect. Where am I going wrong? I swear, I am not trying to be dense or have to much pride to admit when I am wrong. Show me where I am wrong. Please.


Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[kk897]

71. How I got my figures

Hi---Here's how I determined the percentage of adults who were registered to vote in Union County. I was an English major, so check me:

Key

A: Total Population

B: Number of Minors

C: Number of Adults (A minus B)

D: Number of Registered Voters (From the County Election Results, Nov. 2)

E: Percentage of Adults Registered to Vote (C divided by D)


Using figures From OSU Website
http://www.osuedc.org/profiles/population/population_divisions.php?&fips=39159&PHPSESSID=12142a5557517e7d398e7e49465f8218

A: 40, 909

B: 12, 213 (this is under the age of 19)

C: 28696

D: 30,200

E: 95 percent



Using US Census QuickFacts:

A: 43,750 (2003 estimate)

B: 12075 (Persons under 18 years old, percent, 2000: 27.6%)

C: 31675

D: 30,200

E: 95 percent


Using only 2000 US Census numbers:

A: 40, 909

B: 11,291 (Calculated from the percentage quoted in QuickFacts)

C: 29, 618

D: 30,200

E: 98 percent

[Straight Shooter]

70. Too much for my brain to absorb but I can tell it's worth kicking

:kick:

[RageKage]

74. The above 100% registration/voting age pop. means nothing.

This was already known, and is due to high number of inactive voters who have moved or died, but not been removed from the list.


http://www.dispatch.com/election/election-local.php?story=dispatch/2004/10/24/20041024-A1-00.html

[goclark]

75. Kick it still, let them figure it out

[Woody Box]

76. It is a condition for vote fraud per overregistration

...but just a necessary condition, not a sufficient one, in logical terms.

It's not a proof that fraud was going on, but accounts for a lot opportunities for fraudulent "inactive" (i,e, registered, but not eligible) voters. That's enough to raise suspicion.

Other things have emerged which support the overregistration fraud theory.

[RageKage]

77. I agree.

Its the easiest way to fudge the paper trail. I think specifically people should look for people on the felon's list who were not removed from the rolls.

[shaggy briard]

78. Exactly the point

If you still have active registrations on the books for dead or moved and you know which ones they are -- then votes can be generated for them via absentee or other means -- this is fraud the old-fashioned way
The fact that the registrations have not been purged creates the opportunity for mischief
Knowledge of which ones have moved or died creates the means
And as for Republicans no one doubts their motives to lie cheat and steal this election

[RageKage]

79. especially in Ohio, too

Ohio had a list of felons and inactive voters, that they had been 'planning' to purge from the voter rolls, after a period during which people could dispute being on the list.

After complaints about the list (names not being removed even after people disputed their inactive status), however, they announced they would not purge them, but would only note the people on the list in the voter rolls. If they showed up they'd have to show ID.

But those names on the list would likely not show.

[txindy]

101. That's the method I'm convinced was used in many states

They took the lists of felons and inactive voters, 'urged' those on the lists still living in the state not to vote, and then voted for them. Even the ones who defied the 'suggestions' not to vote, no doubt found themselves forced into using a provisional ballot. Those went into the round file, probably.

Say, if some of those votes were absentee, would it be possible to determine how they voted? Full privacy via election officials, of course, I have no business knowing, myself. I'm just curious as to how many felons supposedly voted a straight repub ticket. I'm willing to bet they all did. They just don't know it. They don't even believe they voted.

[mikelewis]

80. Why the vote purging explanation is a smoking pile of crap!

The voter over-registration is important because it draws into question several interesting possibilities on how Bush got reelected.

Even though this was addressed by the Sec. of State you need to see the numbers on the over Registration. Let me explain...


Beginning in 1996 we had a total registration of

6,614,085 voters

1997 we jump up 329,746 new voters to 6,943,831

In 1998, we gain Kenneth BLackwell and we also gain a jump of 152,592 new voters for a total of 7,096,423 registered

In 1999, we gain 50,472 for a total of 7,146,895 registered voters

In 2000 we have 7,535,188 which is a gain of 388,293

Now in 2001 we lose -381,392 voters for a total of 7,153,796
registered voters. Don't you find it odd that we lost almost as much as we gained in 2001? Is this from vote purging or people moving? What can explain that during the Election year we gained so many votes and the very next year we lost them?

Now to continue...

In 2002, we lose -39,970 voters for a total of 7,113,826 registered voters.

In 2003, we gain 24,667 new voters for a total of 7,138,493 registered voters

In 2004, we gain back over double what we lost for a total of 841,146
new voters resulting in 7,979,639 registered voters.

http://www.dispatch.com/election/election-local.php?story=dispatch/2004/10/24/20041024-A1-00.html

Again, I have read this article before and have referred to it in my emails to Kucinich and the GAO and everyone else I am sending this data to. The question I have is, if the decision was made to enact the gradual voter purge by relying on people to fall off the rolls because they did not vote, how do we account for such dramatic loses in 2001. Also, 2000 wasn't a particularly successful election as only 51% of the population of the United States even bothered to vote, how did we get such a huge leap in voter registration during 2000 and then how did we lose them again in 2001? Remember according to the article, Kenneth Blackwell decided that since they lost the data in 1999 due to a computer "glitch" they would have no way of purging the rolls. They would have had to have fallen off gradually. This does not seem to be the case as we have lost nearly as much as we gained the very next year.

In 2004, we again gain voters, more than doubling in the new registrants of 2000 but again, it seems as if these new registrants prefer Bush, in spite of the massive economic loses and the war and the fact that he's a sneaky little bastard. He wins again and we now have a tremendously high voter registration level. These numbers are not normal. I am not a statistical analyst but even I can see this makes no sense. Where are these people coming from and where did they go in 2001? Will they be here in 2005?

Now look at this article...
http://www.cincinnati.com/text/local/2004/10/20/loc_fraud20.html
See full article at the bottom of this post.

All across the state we have a truckload of new registrants and thousands of the new voter registration cards are returned because of wrong addresses or wrong names or they're dead. The registrations are marked returned to sender and no harm done right? What about the ones that weren't returned? Obviously someone simply signed up a shitload of people and sent in thier registrations. Some of these newly signed up people might have recieved cards but ignored them or threw them away. Records would exist somewhere on who these people might be.

It was assumed that the Democrats were responsible for doing this but obviously, it worked against them. Not at the polls, see exit poll posts, but in the absentee ballots. Remember that in Cuyahoga County absentee ballots created a 7% shift in votes for President Bush. {I heard of Republicans actually signing up the Amish voters, I didn't know the Amish voted.} What's to stop someone from gaining access to this list of newly registered voters who had been registered without thier knowledge or consent and sending in an absentee ballot for them? Is this beyond feasibility? I wouldn't be wasting my time on this if I thought it was.

The over-registration allows for fraud. Even if I am wrong and no fraud existed as a result of these over-registrations or absentee ballots, the potential is definitely there and this should be explored more thouroughly. I think the explaination of why these numbers are so high is a smoking pile of crap because the dramatic loss in 2001 has no explanation when measured against the method by which these voters were to be purged. If I am to believe this explanation, I have to believe that -381,392 people didn't vote in 1995 and then take another leap of blind faith and believe that in 2000, we had almost as many sign up to vote, 388,293. I believe in God and I believe in miracles, I don't believe either had anything to do with the vote in Ohio. I know this is difficult to follow but I think this is important enough to present it to you. Please try and understand what I am saying even if I am not explaining correctly.


Sincerely,
Michael Lewis





Article Begins

COLUMBUS - Thousands of cards mailed by county election boards to newly registered voters in Hamilton County and throughout the state are being returned because the people can't be found.

John Williams, director of the Hamilton County Board of Elections, said the situation indicates that there might not be as many new voters as some expect in a state deemed crucial in the presidential election.

Ohio Republican Party Chairman Robert Bennett on Tuesday said it's a result of statewide registration fraud conducted by independent groups that support Democratic candidates.

"By most accounts, their work can only be considered sloppy, haphazard and, in some cases, downright illegal," Bennett said, noting that the state party plans to take out full-page ads in Ohio newspapers encouraging citizens to stop voter fraud.

Democratic Party spokesman Dan Trevas said the fraud uncovered in Ohio equates to "minor errors" when viewed in the bigger picture.

"The vast majority of those registered for the first time are intent on voting," he said.

Bennett cited instances in 10 counties where potentially fraudulent voter registration forms were submitted.

He said many were submitted by groups he terms "auxiliaries of the Democratic Party": the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN) and America Coming Together.

The groups paid people to register voters. Some registrations were filled out for dead people, some contained fake addresses, and others named fiction characters such as Dick Tracy and Mary Poppins.

Jess Goode, spokesman for ACT in Ohio, has denied wrongdoing by his group. He said the Republican Party is scared of the number of new Democratic voters headed to the polls in two weeks.

An estimated 7.9 million people have registered in Ohio, up from 7.1 million at the beginning of the year.

Williams is currently investigating fraud by someone working for ACORN who he said submitted voter registrations for about 35 people who don't exist.

Newly registered voters in Hamilton County are mailed a card telling them where to vote and what political districts they live in. But thousands of those cards were returned because the people, or the addresses listed on voter registration forms, couldn't be found.

"There is quite a number," Williams said, noting that not every returned card is a suspected case of fraud. "People do actually move.''

State GOP records, confirmed by Williams, show that through Oct. 4, Hamilton County mailed 63,403 cards to new registrants, and 4,152 were returned - a rate of 6.6 percent.

The number was third-highest in the state behind Cuyahoga County's 14,461 and Franklin's 6,917, according to GOP records. In Butler County, 255 cards mailed to new voters were returned, while 24 were returned in Warren County, according to GOP records. Clermont County numbers were not available.

Tim Burke, chairman of the Hamilton County Democratic Party and the county elections board, said an updated number of cards returned is 5,808 out of 150,000 mailed not only to new voters, but also to those changing addresses, for a return rate of less than 4 percent.

Burke said fraud makes up a small percentage of the hundreds of thousands of newly registered voters in Ohio.

"I think Republicans are attempting to justify what they intend to do on Election Day by raising questions of voter fraud and overplaying this," he said.

What both the Democratic and Republican parties in Ohio intend to do is use a 51-year-old law that allows them to place challengers at polling sites. The parties are recruiting lawyers, law students and others to ensure that people are allowed to vote, or to potentially challenge voters' eligibility.

Bennett said his efforts are likely to focus on heavily Democratic areas where many new voters have been registered. Democrats expect to match the effort.

As further evidence of registration fraud, Bennett said the Ohio Republican Party sent out its own letters to newly registered Ohio voters, encouraging them to vote Republican.

In the counties where new registration was highest, 3 percent to 9 percent of the letters were returned because the people were not located.

"I can say ... as someone who's been in state politics for 40 years, that the normal rate of return is less than 1 percent," he said. "These results are really unprecedented and frightening."

Ed Gillespie, chairman of the Republican National Committee, joined Bennett Tuesday and said Ohio's issues of voter registration fraud cases are alarming and part of a national problem.

"Whether it's for profit motive or political motive, fraud is being committed in the registration process in a way that makes more possible fraud on Election Day," he said.

"I'll bet you this. If Mary Poppins and Dick Tracy vote on Election Day, they'll vote for John Kerry."

[RageKage]

81. cool, 'nuf said

Someone should try to get a hold of both: list of newly registered voters (the GOP was able to get it to raise the stink) and the purge list Blackwell had before the election.

[tonyblair]

99. Amish

A minor point, but this was apparently a genuine GOTV initiative reported in the Economist. It said that only 10% of Amish generally vote but they "pray Republican". Also they had a soft spot for Bush (I am not making this up!!) because their kids tend to go wild before settling down. (Sorry no link.)

[On the Road]

117. Hadn't Thought About That

Yes, Amish teens are notoriously wild and faithless before making a choice on whether to stay Amish. It's a strange part of their tradition.

It's actually very much like what Bush did except that the Amish have to stop much younger. But I can see where it would make Bush's background more acceptable to them.

[mikelewis]

120. Is it possible we could have been beaten by the Amish Vote?!?

If this is true,we need to really revamp our message. But how do you get out the Amish vote? I have no idea how to build a barn. I guess in 08, we'll have to learn.

Michael Lewis

[scurvy_n_disastrous]

82. numbers/stats person needed here

to check this out. Esp. top post and later one by same author, Michel Lewis. It makes some sense to me, certainly as to creating a pool of "votes" not voters, ie numbers without persons to be used for a variety of tactics.

[scurvy_n_disastrous]

83. Kick

[jdog]

85. kick

[mikelewis]

84. The New York Times article and Registration levels

"By Election Day, ACT claimed to have registered 85,000 new voters in Ohio, while the rest of the America Votes coalition -- groups as large as the A.F.L.-C.I.O. and MoveOn.org and as small as Music for America -- had registered another 215,000"

This article was posted on another thread. I don't know how to link them so I am posting the link to the article.

See what I mean? This is from the New York Times article on Steve Bouchard and ACT. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/21/magazine/21OHIO.html?oref=login&oref=login&pagewanted=1&oref=login

They claimed to add 85,000 from ACT + 215,000 from the rest of the 527 groups. There were 841,146 new registrants. How the hell does this make sense? This is only 300,000 votes. Did the Repubs bring in the other 500,000. If they did, where did they get them? How were they so successful and the professionals not? They claimed it was from some multi-level marketing-type program. Democratic canvassers knocked on my door 3 seperate times. I am on the streets of Cleveland and most of the suburbs all the time, driving from install to install. I did not see one single Republican out registering people to vote. Yes, they were there but you have to understand, the wealthy people live farther apart. It takes more time to move from one house to the next. I know, I pass out flyers all the time for my work and I hate being in the wealthier neighborhoods. To accomplish this, they would need an army of volunteers.

[mikelewis]

86. Continued because I'm an idiot and clicked the wrong button

An organization of this size would have been noticed. I have only seen articles relating to the Democrat get out the vote efforst and yet the Repubs seem to have been able to almost double our efforts with very little exposure. I would like to see someone explain how they did this.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[jdog]

87. A long way from being an idiot!

These questions may already have been answered, if so, sorry:

1. Are there any statistics for how many of these first-time registration cards that were returned were dem vs. repub.?

2. Are the cards always sent out? How do we know these returned cards weren’t the result of fudging back in 2000?

3. What you are talking about will turn up in an examination of the pollbooks won't it?

[mikelewis]

89. To expose this will require a massive criminal review

1. Are there any statistics for how many of these first-time registration cards that were returned were dem vs. repub.?

I have no idea who the people on the cards that were sent back were, repubs or dems, the party affiliation does not appear on the registration form.

2. Are the cards always sent out? How do we know these returned cards weren’t the result of fudging back in 2000?

Yes, they always send out a card when you register the first time and since the fudging in 2000 was erased in 2001, I assume that these would all be new registrants. Remember there were 841,146
new registrants. That's alot and I doubt they would be carry overs from 2000.

3. What you are talking about will turn up in an examination of the pollbooks won't it?

To expose this we would need to do a comprehensive review of the registered voters in this state. Each person would need to be verified as legitimately registered and then this number would need to be compared to the actual votes. I can't see them doing this though it should be done. I assume you could start with the absentee ballots since there are only 600,000 of them and then tackle the remaining 6.5 million.

I doubt they will and that is why I believe this is how they did it in Ohio. We have neither the money nor a willing leadership in this state. The Gov. and the Sec. of State would fight it tooth and nail. It would be so hard but I guess you could cross check the registration information against databases at the DMV or tax records. That should be a bit easier. Identify the people who moved or died. I have no idea.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[shaggy briard]

91. First time cards are probably not the problem

Its the old registrations that were never purged -- if you knew which ones were no longer around, you could vote for them and not create any evidence of fraud -- unless you had someone check the voter lists for movers, deceased, etc. -- that is neither expensive nor difficult

[mikelewis]

93. That's true, I must admit I am only just learning...

about our voting system. I have no idea how to track down fraud but I do know how to add and subtract. None of this adds up to anything good.

I wonder if the Kerry people are on to this and if they are, I wonder what they think they can do about it.

I also hope others can look into this, others who have the experience and the technical knowledge to do it right. I have made a lot of mistakes before posting this and have gone down a lot of dead ends. I spent hours on the Cuyahoga County numbers that were tallied incorrectly and ironically, this led me to the absentee ballots so it wasn't a waste. But I still wish others can take up this line of questioning becasue I truly believe this is where to look.

[mikelewis]

88. The same article... same topic... sorry posting as I read

Subject: The same article... same topic
Message:
"The Democratic Party had a different approach, as I learned just the day before. I had driven over to the Kerry campaign's Ohio headquarters; it was only a five-minute drive from ACT's office, and yet so complete was the separation between the campaign and the 527's that no one in the ACT office seemed to know where it was. (The campaign's Ohio spokeswoman, Jennifer Palmieri, told me that the only time Kerry operatives had stumbled across ACT's work in the state was when they went to rent vans for Election Day and found that ACT had beaten them to it.) Talking to Palmieri, one of the party's most senior press aides, it was clear that the party and its candidate did not share Rosenthal's vision."

The democratic party wasn't even concentrating on new registrant. So the remaining votes had to come from the Republicans. How did they get 500,000 new voters? Where did the come from?

Franklin County (Columbus) 120,869 1.9% Pop growth
$42,734 median per capita income
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) 138,482 -2.1% population growth
$39,168 median per capita income
Montgomery County (Dayton) 49,103 -1.2% population growth
$40,156 median per capita income

All urban areas, all hit by a poor economy. 2 out of 3 losing population. Record levels of registration. The average Joe making $40,000 a year is going to vote for a tax cut for the rich? People, come on. I can't stand it!

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[mikelewis]

90. No repubs on the ground canvassing for voter turnout!

Same article.... No Repubs!!! How did they do it?.....

"We all moved on to Champps for lunch, where Rosenthal got a call from his office on his cellphone and began taking down the numbers from the first wave of exit polling. Kerry was up by 4 points in Ohio and Florida. He led by 12 in Pennsylvania. ''These look great,'' Rosenthal told Lindenfeld and Bouchard. ''I'll take these.'' The three men wondered why it was that they hadn't seen much evidence of the vaunted Republican turnout effort. The ''vote challengers'' that Republicans had successfully appealed to the courts to allow into the polls had never shown up. Field offices weren't detecting any sign of Bush canvassers on the streets or at the polls. It was as if all this talk about the Republicans' volunteer-driven machine had been some kind of a strategic feint rather than an actual plan.

On the way back to headquarters, where he would say his goodbyes before returning to Washington, Rosenthal saw two ACT workers standing in the rain, shielding their Post-it notes under their ponchos. He rolled down the window. ''Hey guys, great job!'' he said. ''Keep up the good work!'' The volunteers waved. ''Have you seen any Republicans?'' Rosenthal asked. ''No? They gave up, I guess. They're all back in Crawford, at the celebration.'' "

[dewaldd]

95. Mike, which are the most suspicious counties?

I can send some people in Ohio out to collect the canvass sheets and examine them precinct-by-precinct. And also look at the records at the boards of election.

[mikelewis]

110. Right off the bat... all of them but lets start with Franklin and Delaware

People probably already have these files though. Let's put the word out or maybe simply by calling the BOE's, they may email them. You never know. It's worth a shot.

If it resorts to driving there, I would start in Franklin. This data has not been released at all and then maybe Delaware.

Thanks Guys

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[symphony]

92. kick

and to think some people still don't believe that there is something rotten with this election :argh:

[Iceburg]

94. "We use very few"(electronic voting machines -- WRONG!!!

Approximately [b]40% [/b]of the registered voters in Ohio were
slated to use electronic voting machines. Approximately 60 %
used punch cards.

Voting Method			Registerd    Votes 	VotesCast/
   				Voters	      Cast	RegVoters
E-Voting: Other	 		1,149,458    738,299 	0.64
E-Voting: Touchscreen	 	  194,673    131,938 	0.68
Optical Scan: Central Count	  857,632    621,937 	0.73
Optical Scan: Precinct-Based	  68,174      48,121 	0.71
                                ---------   ---------   ---- 
	Total Computerized 	2,269,937  1,540,295 	0.68
	Total Punch Card	5,709,702  4,034,181 	0.71


County	Voting Method
------  ---------------
Ross	 E-Voting: Other
Pickaway E-Voting: Other
Lake	 E-Voting: Other
Knox	 E-Voting: Other
Franklin E-Voting: Other
Auglaize E-Voting: Other
Mahoning E-Voting: Touchscreen


Optical Scan - Central Count
------------------------------
Ashland
Clermont
Coshocton
Erie
Geauga
Hancock
Hardin
Lucas
Miami
Ottawa
Sandusky
Washington

Optical Scan - Precinct Count
-----------------------------
Allen

[dewaldd]

96. Ohio party affiliation only is determined by voting in the primary

so any newly registered voter will be "undeclared."

Which are the most suspicious counties? I have volunteers ih Ohio waiting for assignments to go get the canvass sheets.

[jdog]

97. Here's a web site that may help

http://ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com/2004/11/summary-of-provisional-ballots-count.html

[mikelewis]

111. Someone should check to see how closely these numbers match exit polls.

Just glancing through them makes it look a whole lot like a lot more votes for Bush. Any wagers that these numbers will amount to 51% Bush to 48% Kerry? I've got 20 imaginary dollars to bet, any takers?

[Iceburg]

98. Unforntunateley we will need the canvas results from ALL counties

in any meaningful analysis. Several counties have made the unofficial results available in pdf format over the internet. But it is a long painful process to mine the data ..hours if not days for each county depending on the presentation format. I currently have the unofficial results in usable format for Frankin and Cuyahoga counties.

Will your volunteers be able to pick up electronic copies of the canvas data? (I live and work in Canada and ALL election data is made available in electronic format.)

Personally, I would love to get my hands on Mahoning County. In this county, 20 to 30 ES&S iVotronic machines that needed to be recalibrated during the voting process because some votes for a candidate were being counted for that candidate's opponent. http://www.votersunite.org/article.asp?id=3674

[scurvy_n_disastrous]

100. and per iceburg MAHONING Co. esp n/t

[lizzieforkerry]

107. WARREN COUNTY

They barred the press because of Homeland security threat. The FBI then said they didn't increase the threat level. I know people received unrequested ballots and it was not marked in the roll books. Gore got 28% of the vote without trying. Kerry got 28% of the vote with the largest Dem campaign in the county's history. We had money, large numbers of vol., we started in July, our GOTV was impressive...I could go on and on. We were the last county to release our numbers and we clinched it for Bush. We have been one of the fastest growing counties in Ohio so the fact that the percentages have stayed the same is very strange. I heard our exit polls were at 33% but I don't know where that info came from. We were expecting 33% but thinking we would get 38%. PLEASE LOOK INTO THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mikelewis]

103. Useless Numbers... Not yours, not mine, and a doughnut

A man from the New York Times told me that this election wasn't electronically hacked. He told me that several professors across the country don't believe that the vote was hacked in Ohio. So I am going off the premise that maybe I can get thier attention by exposing substanital fraud in the absentee ballots. They are pattenly refusing to believe it was the voting machines and focusing on some other aspect that could explain how Bush won. If I am wrong and it proves to be the machines great. If it wasn't the machines, maybe we can take a second look at this as I will continue to dig in this area.

I believe that the lack of transperancy in our absentee ballot votes is a dangerous area for fraud and if fraud wasn't commited this time, it may be in the future. If I am wrong then no harm done, if they are wrong, this line of questioning will at least be started. But also keep in mind how many ballots would have to be cast to move this election so far away from the exit polls.

In this scenario, I reverse the numbers as the actual exit polls are close enough to easily illustrate my point.


Either 167,000 votes were cast for Kerry and added to Bush or 334,000 votes more were cast for Bush. Electronic voting glitches could explain the first example and 10% of the votes were hacked . In the second example 20% of the votes would have to be hacked which is a bit harder to believe .

In my scenario, we know nothing other than Cuyahoga County broke 7% more for Bush in the absentee ballots. This is something, a piece. We also know that voter over-registration opens the potential to exploit both of these avenues of fraud as there was over-registration in Cuyahoga and no electronic voting machines. Right now, we have a few irregularities and a lot of people digging into the computer fraud story. In this arena we have, well, me. I have found irregularities which I am hoping that someone can use to take the presidency of the George Bush away from him. This is my only goal. There is no pride in my work only purpose. Pride will come if Kerry is elected and I helped or at least tried. Pride will come when I know my next vote will count. If I am in error on any of this information, I want the information and I want to correct what I say. I urge you to help me on this unless you are activly researching the voting machines.


This is the data I hope we can collect.

I would like Ohio registration information as it compares to persons of voting age, preferably presented in the same format using the same source information. I believe the Sec of State site and the Census is sufficient sources of credibility.

I would like totals for the registered voters, ballots cast and census information for persons of voting age for the years to include 1994 to 2004.

I would like all the absentee ballot information for these years as it compares to percent of registered voters and how the votes for which party were these votes cast.

I would like voter turn out information to substitute the percent of people who voted. I.e. 1000 people of voting age - 370 ballots cast --37% voted. I do not believe that the number of people registered to vote should be used as a measure since it is clear that this data pool is corrupt. The only true guage to go by is the actual percent of ballots cast as compared to the population of voting age residents of each county. This information will be closer to correct as there could only be a 1-2% fluctuation. Any dramitc shifts will be noted. Ken Blackwell and his computer glitch has rendered the registration numbers useless. We must use a different measure. This data will yeild accurate percentages in which we can note irregularities.

I would like someone who knows how to compile data to take charge and assign work to volunteers. I will volunteer. I will follow directions as long as the information stays on course with these guidelines.


I would also like a doughnut, glazed, slightly moist on the bottom and just a little sticky. Coffee too, lots of cream, lots of sugar.

I am going to be collecting this data but it is going to take me a long time and have inaccuracies. I am doing it but I need help. I can post what I have so far but I am unfamiliar with how this site handles spreadsheets and where I can post this info so others can view it, expand on it or fix it.

I will be purchasing the doughnut and coffee tomorrow at 6:30 am at the Donut Connection.

If someone, anyone can help me compile this information or hopefully if someone already has this information compiled, please reply.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[RageKage]

104. i got some

I have 00 and 04 data (using 07/03 Pop estimate), on an excel sheet. It does not have absentee ballots. Unfortunately, I have a paper for law school to write tonight. PM me if you want me to send it to you.

[Lisabtrucking]

106. I thought the same thing.

I have thought the same thing. I would love to know the total of eligible voters in all county's. It can be done with the census records. I do believe that is where the fraud will be found. they need to look at the population in the areas and then find the correct voting age. I would love to see the outcome of that.

[Lisabtrucking]

108. Here is the 2003 cenus for all states

http://www.census.gov/popest/states/asrh/SC-EST2003-02.html

You can find your state to check on how many people are in your area and state this might help

[rhite5]

109. Maybe I can help a little. Oversize REGISTERED VOTER NUMBERS:

Michael, You are raising important questions. I have no doubt that you are focused on the right area -- the new registrations and absentee voting.

Reasons why total "Registered Voters" will be INFLATED numbers.

In my own analysis on a few precincts in Oregon several years ago I discovered a large number of duplicate registrations, all were accidental -- like women who married and were registered both under the maiden name and the married name or names with very slight variations but the very same address and date of birth or the same person registered under two different party affiliations or the same person registered at two different addresses --. These were all due to the county recording a changed registration as if it was a new registration.

I also discovered a number of persons that I knew had died but were still on the registered voter list and in some cases had been dead for a couple of years. These were people I knew or knew about ... who knows how many more there were that I did not know at all? I was told there had been a breakdown in communications between the county coroner's office and the county elections office in an earlier year so some deaths had been missed. Under the best of circumstances there is a time lag of a month or more for death data to be reflected.

I also was told that when people move and reregister in another state, that does not automatically remove them from the voter rolls in Oregon. Supposedly, they do get removed if they merely move to another Oregon county, but that is not always the case.

We had several cases of people who had registered when they were seniors in high school, left town after graduation, and forgot about their earlier registration. They were sometimes registered at colleges or at residences in other states. Their parents still lived at the old local address, so mail to these voters did not come back to the Elections Dept as "undelivered."

The Elections Office depends on "undelivered mail" to trigger removal of names from the voter rolls.

Anyway, you can see why the number of Registered Voters will ALWAYS be overstated. I estimate that overstatement would naturally be 5% to 10%.

[rhite5]

112. Periodic Surges in Voter Registrations / Surges in Purges

I think it is natural to see surges in voter reg. in Presidential vote years. That's when all the voter reg active campaigns take place.

It would also be natural to see purges in the year FOLLOWING a presidential election year IF they purge voters who have not voted in 4 years OR IF they purge voters who do not vote through two presidential elections.

[rhite5]

113. Access to County Election data ....

Typically, candidates and their committees (as well as political parties) can request data in electronic form (or on CDs) from the county elections offices. Ordinary citizens usually cannot.

I think to do a proper analysis you need to get a file dump of the registered voter rolls of the counties you want to look at. These rolls will identify each voter by precinct, will provide date of birth, party affiliation, whether or not they are permanent absentee voters or temporarily absentee voters (traveling, etc.), active military voters, etc. Also these records show date of registration and date of last registration change. By request, they will also provide voting history, so you can identify which ones have been active voters and which ones have been irregular or very poor voters. (of course it doesn't tell you HOW they voted, just IF they voted).

The info can be imported into an EXCEL spreadsheet or a good database application. It's a lot of data, but you can sort it and get your own totals in various categories. I suggest working with one precinct at a time. Focus on the voters that voted Absentee and check what their registration date was and anything else about them that stands out. If the names were only there to pad this one vote for Bush and to only be there temporarily, they might be registered as Independents or Dems, not necessarily as Republicans. If their history looks like a candidate for purging, they still could be any political party or none.

Incidentally, I have noticed Absentee Voting and Early Voting numbers have often been combined in county reports around the country. Absentee and Early Voting were used more heavily than usual this year by people who did not trust electronic voting. So the increases you see in Absentee votes this time in Ohio could well be normal and correct.

[mikelewis]

114. So Cobb and Bardinick must already have this data?

This should be easier than I thought. Wouldn't it be beneficial for these numbers to leak? Could we contact the second party candidates and get the information from them? I have to work all day so maybe someone can rustle up a couple of emails and shoot them to these guys, see if they can help. They should.


That seems a bit ridiculous that citizens aren't able to get the same data from the BOE's that the candidates do. Hell, they're our votes. From now on we should always nominate 1 candidate whose sole responsibility is to leak everything, not to win, just to expose. The cyber candidate. We could easily get enough petitions signed. I'm sure some 527 would help us, but that's the next fight.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis


p.s. If we should get a cyber candidate, I have some really good ideas on how we could hack the vote.

[mikelewis]

123. Allen County info needed - Let's shut this loser up!

{Ohio Election Officials Bristle Under Recount Requests
http://www.wcpo.com/news/2004/local/11/22/ohio_recount.html

Let's find something to shut this loser up. He has a 85% registration level. He has a 60% voter turn out as a function of the total population. What else can we dig up on Allen County or Keith Cunningham, director of the Allen County Board of Elections and incoming president of the Ohio Association of Election Officials. Let's get everything we can on Allen County. Demographics, voting history, prisons, number of Democrats, Number of Republicans, anything and everything. If he is casting the first stone, let's find out if he lives in a glass house. Mr. Cunningham, welcome to the internet!}

Allen County Ohio

No website available for the Board of elections for Allen County

Information was pulled from

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html

County Name Allen
Total Precincts 139
Total Registered Voters 68,174
Total Votes Cast 48,121
Percentage of Votes Cast 70.59
Provisional Ballots Issued 1,374

According to the Census Bureau the estimated population of Allen County Ohio is 108,241 as of 2003

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39003.html

The number of persons under 18 is 25.9% which equates to 28,034 persons below voting age

This means that there are 80,207 eligible voters in Allen County

According to the above information the number of registere voters is 68,174.

The percent of registered voters versus eligible voters is 85.0%.

Comparison from 2000 General Election

County ALLEN
2000
2004 70.59%
Percent Change 40.49%


Source 2004 Election http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html

Source 2000 Election http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html

[mikelewis]

124. Keith is a member of Republican Party Central & Executive Committee

http://www.allencountyohiogop.com/executive.php

His is the first name listed.


http://www.newsnet5.com/news/3900723/detail.html
"In Allen County, the election board exceeded its half-million dollar budget by almost $150,000, hiring double the normal amount of part-time workers."


So Allen County is an Optical Scan Ballot
http://www.ohio.com/mld/beaconjournal/news/state/9810765.htm
Blackwell told county election boards this week they have three options for removing Nader's name:
_ Reprint the ballots.
_ Place stickers over Nader's name or use another method to block it.
_ Post a notice informing voters that any vote cast for Nader will not be counted.

There could, however, be problems with those options.
Stickers placed over the name on optical scan ballots could come off in vote-counting machines that read pencil marks made next to voters' choice. The stickers could jam the machines used in 12 of 88 counties.

James Lee, a spokesman for the Secretary of State's office, said Friday that those counties are aware or will be made aware of the potential problems with the stickers.

Instead, they should use the other two options, he said.

But posting a sign at polling places is the least desirable option, said Keith Cunningham, elections director in Allen County, because it could leave elections boards vulnerable to a challenge.

"It's most likely in that scenario votes will be cast for Ralph Nader," he said. "The argument then becomes who would those votes have gone to."

Allen County, which uses optical scan ballots, is sending its Election Day ballots to the printer next week without Nader's name.

But its absentee ballots include the independent candidate's name and will be mailed with a notice informing that Nader's votes will not be counted.

"This election has been jostled and shaken about so much with legal maneuverings," Cunningham said. "We're trying our best to keep it smooth."

[mikelewis]

125. Keith is a wealth of knowledge!!!

Look...


http://waldick.com/article10.htm
April 30, 2002
Jury selection slow for Eureka Street case
Death, relocation slowing process
By GREG SOWINSKI


Excerpt on Jury Duty Problems
The latest episode came Monday when prosecutor, defense attorneys and a judge began reviewing the first of 200 potential jurors pooled for the July-scheduled trial of Cleveland Jackson in the Eureka Street shooting case.

It started with one person on the questionnaire who had died. "Bring him in," joked Juergen Waldick, an assistant Allen County prosecutor. Defense attorney Bill Kluge commented that he had no objection to excusing the person. Attorneys often poke a little fun at the problems they encounter on a regular basis. Another potential juror sent in a doctor's note that said she could not serve but did not list a medical reason. Then there's the people who have moved. "Why if some of these folks are not registered anymore or living here anymore, where in the heck is the jury commissioner getting his records from?" Allen County Common Pleas Judge Jeffrey Reed said.


"Reed cut the hearing short Monday, rescheduling part of it for next week when he can bring in someone from the board of elections to see if anything can be done to fix the problem. Potential jurors are pulled from voter registration records. The board of elections, for the most part, has to rely on voters to update their information. The only exception is that the health department sends the board a list of people who have died and the clerk of courts sends a list of recently convicted felons, said Keith Cunningham, director of the Allen County Board of Elections. "We're only as good as the information people give us," Cunningham said. State and federal laws also hurt the process. For example, if a voter has moved but failed to report an address change, the board of elections has to keep that person registered for six years, Cunningham said. Under the National Voter Registration Act, in order to remove a voter from the database for not voting, the voter has to miss two federal elections. The board is then required to send a notice to the person giving him another two years until the next federal election to respond, he said. After that, the person's voter registration can be tossed, Cunningham said. There are also a few computer issues in Allen County. The board of elections is not online with the main database at the courthouse, from which the jury pool is drawn. Part of the reason is that it was not possible until about two years ago because of existing computer equipment. The other side deals with security. To ensure the integrity of the process, voter registration records must be highly protected, Cunningham said. Under the current computer system, the election board would not be able to provide the courthouse with online "view-only files," therefore creating the potential that the records could be altered, Cunningham said. Because of that, the database of potential jurors is only updated for the court about once a year. A solution to weed out people who have died or others who shouldn't appear on the list would be to update the database just before pooling a jury, he said. "He's got old data," Cunningham said. "Our database changes on a daily basis."

[mikelewis]

126. Keith is an ally of Blackwell

http://www.ohiocitizen.org/moneypolitics/pre2003/disput ...

Keith Cunningham, a member of the Allen County Board of Elections, is opposed to watering down the recommendations proposed by Blackwell. He warned that if counties aren't given specific directions and a failure occurs, "It's not going to be a legislator or the secretary of state who loses his job, it's going to be an election official.''

Allen County uses an optical- scanner system, the kind recommended by Blackwell.


http://www.ohiocitizen.org/moneypolitics/pre2003/panel_ ...

Although the report doesn't recommend a ban on punch cards, Blackwell said he personally would like to get rid of them.

State Sen. Jeff Jacobson, of Brookville, one of two Republican senators on the 11-member committee, said he prefers to keep punch-card ballots, which are used in 70 of Ohio's 88 counties.

"I do not believe we have been given convincing evidence that the punch-card system is flawed," said Jacobson, who also is the Montgomery County Republican chairman.

Keith Cunningham, chairman of the Allen County Board of Elections, said the committee was passing up an opportunity to endorse more modern voting methods.

"I will not support attempts to water this to the point where it just sits on the shelf," Cunningham said.

Some committee members said changes in balloting would be expensive and aren't needed. Blackwell said he would call the committee back when members could find the time to meet. He did not specify a date.

[mikelewis]

128. Everyone makes mistakes

Appearantly Keith made a whopper. The language on a previous ballot issue got a bit screwed up so that when the people thought that they were voting against a tax hike they were actually voting against repealing the tax hike. Whoops!

Way to go Keith.

Oops! Ballot Error Means Beaverdam Vote Is Invalid
By JOY BROWN
Staff Writer
BEAVERDAM -- Everyone makes mistakes. But the Allen County Board of Elections made one that is affecting the entire community of Beaverdam.

The problem occurred on Election Day, and involved the wording of an income tax issue on the ballot for the village, located southwest of Bluffton.

Voters were to decide whether to repeal a 1 percent income tax, which had been enacted into law initially by the Beaverdam Village Council via an ordinance.

But on the ballot, voters were asked whether they wanted to approve the tax.
http://www.thecourier.com/issues/1998/Nov/110798.htm

[mikelewis]

135. Allen County (Ohio) - Income Statistics 2002 - $25,237

Year Unadjusted Adjusted CPI
1986 $14,279 $20,428 0.699
1987 $14,614 $20,185 0.724
1988 $15,270 $20,252 0.754
1989 $15,937 $20,173 0.790
1990 $16,618 $19,950 0.833
1991 $17,039 $19,630 0.868
1992 $18,098 $20,244 0.894
1993 $18,252 $19,818 0.921
1994 $19,431 $20,562 0.945
1995 $19,894 $20,488 0.971
1996 $20,361 $20,361 1.000
1997 $21,240 $20,762 1.023
1998 $22,457 $21,490 1.045
1999 $23,631 $22,314 1.059
2000 $24,380 $22,388 1.089
2001 $24,869 $22,304 1.115
2002 $25,237 $22,060 1.144

[mikelewis]

136. Net Migration to 2002

Year Flow
1988-1989 -713
1989-1990 -509
1990-1991 -942
1991-1992 -523
1992-1993 -585
1993-1994 -789
1994-1995 -871
1995-1996 -803
1996-1997 -888
1997-1998 -969
1998-1999 -633
1999-2000 -105
2000-2001 -622
2001-2002 -575
Total -9,527

[reality_bites]

127. Exit pools are no reliable. Why use them to support an argument ?

"Now the exit poll data suggests that Kerry won the state 52.1% to Bush 47.9% but the results give the state to Bush by 51%. So what could have tipped the scales in a primarily punch ballot state? What condition that was not guaged in the Ohio exit poll data could have had an impact on this election."

You assume the exit poll is accurate. Exit polls are not necessarily reliable predictors of election outcome. Many people seem to beleive they are, but they simply aren't. It's not hard to discover this. Google works great. Try here:

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005178.php

[mikelewis]

130. I've been told this many times

Maybe you're right and we should just quit looking. But did you know that the odds of them being wrong in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida are like 250,000,000 to 1 or some such bizarre number. You can look this up on google too.

But if you read the post, I am trying to explain how the exit polls may have been correct and the ballot totals may have been correct and the issue might be considered is the absentee ballots as they would have no effect on the exit polls but would on the ballots cast.

I am also concerned that this could be a possible avenue of fraud, if not in this election then in ones in the future.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[pointsoflight]

134. Wrong. If not reliable, why do WE use them to verify foreign elections?

[The Flaming Red Head]

138. Exit polls prove fraud in foreign election, why not in the US?

Premier Victor in Ukraine Vote; Abuses Are Seen
NYT

By C. J. CHIVERS

Published: November 23, 2004

snip

With the opposition filling the landmark square, an international election observer mission - from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the European Parliament, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the Council of Europe - released a preliminary report that buoyed them, declaring that the election did not meet democratic standards.

snip

The victory for the prime minister, by a margin of nearly 3 percentage points, that was given in official results diverged sharply from a range of surveys of voters at polling places that gave the opposition as much as an 11-point lead. Opposition organizers pushed for protest and mass action.

[The Flaming Red Head]

139. also sounds familiar

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/23/international/europe/23ukraine.html?pagewanted=2&ei=5094&en=720dd01583fe98bc&hp&ex=1101272400&partner=homepage



The findings of the international election mission included abuse of state resources in favor of the prime minister; the addition of about 5 percent of new voters to the rolls on election day; pressure on students to vote for the state's choice; pressure on state workers to turn over absentee ballot forms for presumptive use by someone else; widespread abuse of absentee voters, including some who were bused from region to region; the blocking of poll workers; suspiciously, even fantastically, high turnouts in regions that supported the prime minister; inaccurate voter lists and overt bias of state-financed news media.

[leftchick]

145. that is a RW and MSM distraction....

so that no one will look for fraud. The fact is exit polls have been used for years and in many countries as a reliable source for the outcome of an election. In the US they were called unreliable in 2002(when the coup in GA took place) and this year's coup II of the presidential election to justify scewed results. That aricle won't fool anyone that is on the hunt for fraud.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

129. Kerry won Pennsylvania. Why not Ohio?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x70536

[mikelewis]

132. Successful Voter Suppression - Our buddy Ken Blackwell

If you look at the Cleveland data, some precincts had extremely low voter turnout. I forget the numbers but they are real low, less than 20%. We also had voter intimidation and precinct redistricting which disenfranchised centain voters. I happen to believe the absentee ballots helped Bush out a lot as well, they did in Cuyahoga County by 7%. We have a real mess here and we need to find out why. Maybe it's a Browns/Steelers thing. Who knows. Maybe it was the Gay Marriage Amendment. So far, only one voting machine has come up on radar as acting screwy but this is to my limited knowledge and doesn't mean that there aren't more that I don't know about or haven't been found yet. I don't know. I hope to find out.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[reality_bites]

131. More work for you

"The way I determined the number of eligible Persons of Voting Age (PAV) was to go to the U.S. census bureau and pull the estimates for the individual cities and then compared them to the number of registered voters on the Cuyahoga County Board of Election's website. In at least 8 cases, these registration levels exceeded 120% of the PAV's."

The census was taken in 2000, 4 years ago. That doesn't mean you are wrong, it does mean you have to do more work. after all, people move.

Also, teens in the census numbers that were age 14 to 17 in 2000 when the census was taken, are now of voting age. So, you can't simply take the number of people of voting age during the last census and compare that to current registered voters. instead, you have to take the people of voting age in 2000 census and add to that all teens aged 14 to 17 who are now voting age, then you will have the actual number of people of voting age in 2004.

Also, you are looking at census bureau estimates for CITIES, and comparing that to registered voters in the COUNTY. Are there people in the COUNTY that are RURAL and therefore not included in the census bureau CITY estimates ? Maybe every person in the county lives in one of the cities in the county. I don't know, do you ? More work.

[mikelewis]

133. The numbers I am using are estimates for 2003 and you're right, needs work

These numbers are based off estimates for 2003 and can be adjusted by taking the population change from 2000 to 2003 dividing by 3 and adding this percent which I haven't done and hope someone will.

Yes, you are right about the teens that have matured to voting age but you have not taken into consideration the newborns in this time period which this should allow for in the adjustment in the population change. And you are not taking into consideration the people who died. I am not trying to be exact, just close enough to allow those who know how to be exact clean it up.

I am looking at the census info for the counties when I am refering to counties and cities when I am referring to cities. I at least know that much.

Yes, there is more work. Would you like to help? Adjust data and post it. Add or subtract and lets get a real good picture of every single county in Ohio. You don't need to do it all just a piece and in a short time, we'll have the whole pie.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[kk897]

141. But in the numbers there's a percentage of minors

When you go to the census's county Quick Facts, they give a percentage of the population under 18. Seems logical that, although the numbers themselves might change, the percentage would be approximately the same.

How accurate do we need to be? And can someone please check my math (and logic) in post 71, above? There are quite a few interesting things about Union County, even though it's not one of the "glamour" counties like Franklin and Cuyahoga.

[mikelewis]

142. The shotgun method - in response to Union County info

When you shoot buckshot, the farther away you are the wider the pattern you get. Right now, we are shooting in a general direction but as we get closer the shot pattern is closer to the actual target. I think we just need to start with close enough and move in from there.

We need a general buckshot view to focus on the irregularities. As we get closer we can be more precise. In your union county data, thank you btw, we are using projected numbers which can be off. There is an inherent margin of error so we must account for this but it is still close enough to see a problem exists. The next step is to identify the demographics of this voter pool and voting history so we can compare it to this election. This will bring the buckshot pattern closer together. When we analyze the precinct totals, we will have a very good picture of the county and be able to identify irregularities more easily. The goal in this is to answer these questions.


How many people voted in this election as a percent of the population?

How did this number deviate from previous elections?

Which political parties were voted for during this and past elections and are there any dramitic deviations?

What effect did the absentee ballots have on this and previos elections?

How do we rate the potential for fraud in this and previous elections?

Can we identify areas where fraud might exist and are there any safeguards that are in place to guard against these areas of fraud.


If we can find 88 people to do one county we can have a good buckshot view in a few days. We can then begin filling in the blanks in the picture, such as prison populations, people who do not vote for religious reasons, absentee ballot voters. We can also add demographic information such as income and occupation and identify if these factors had an effect on the vote outcome.

It just takes a lot of digging.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[kk897]

143. Great, thanks

for the clear outline. I'm not much of a math/stats mind, so it's all a little hard to grasp, but since I'm looking into this kind of thing for an Ohio organization anyway, I don't see why I can't go a little further and post what I learn here. Maybe start another thread for people getting answers to your list of questions? (Heck, maybe there is one already... DU is HUGE! and I feel I've only seen a tiny sliver of it so far).

I'll go through this thread again, and maybe you said already, but where did you get your demographics like income, race, etc.? I think Cuyahoga might have all that posted, but for little rural counties it might be hard to come by. There's not a by-precinct results page, even, although they have past election results, which I've printed out to compare to this election. There was a surge in registration from an August election, which had a record low turnout, and the November election, which had a 75 percent turnout.

The organization I'm working with (like all of them) is trying to obtain more precise data, but the BoEs aren't that cooperative and Blackwell keeps throwing up roadblocks.

[mikelewis]

144. The census is a great place to start but info is everywhere.

The census can give you all sorts of credible data on pop estimates and county demographics. Also, many research papers exist that document a lot of this stuff already. Look into jury duty articles and migration papers. Look into news stories about poverty and standard of living. Look at the new business openings and closing. Look at the number of vacancies for commercial and industrial property.

All of these sources should be good for information to bring the picture of the county into focus. Choose a small one like Holmes county or Union county and start digging. How hard is it to find the information on a population of 20,000? I don't believe that the Board of Elections in these counties are corrupt. That would be too hard. It's possible but very hard. We need to find articles that relate to policy changes and papers that relate to the Help America Vote Act that affect this policy. The Sec. of State website has some great info from past elections, dating back 50 years or so. There isn't much on absentee voting which is a little concerning as this should be highlighted as much as the provisional votes were highlighted. Look for stories and op/eds but stay focused on one county. Post your information so others can correct your findings and add additional information. But stay focused on only one, become the Union County expert. Find out who the director of the Board of Elections is and any information you can find about any of the people who run the BOE. Find out the budget information if you can. Find it all. Dig dig dig until you are sick to death of Union County. And post everything. When we spot irregularities we can bring those into focus and pass this information on to the other DUers and who knows. This information will be important later on as well as the groups who are out there fighting voter fraud can use this data to identify suspect areas and can help to take steps to limit future fraud. Since a large amount of people believe that fraud took place in 2000, then it is only fair to say that this is a long standing campaign to disenfranchise our votes. This is a war on democracy and we need to fight this battle and we need to keep fighting this battle.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[kk897]

146. I'm with ya, bro

Why don't you start a thread to post the county by county results we obtain? Include your clear directions to me (can't tell you how great it was to see it spelled out for me like that) and the above post. Also, maybe check with the DU voter fraud investigation people in the Voting Issues forum; this sounds like the stuff they're looking for, too.

[mikelewis]

147. Forgive my ingnorance buy I am a newbie after all

I am not sure how to start a new thread. If you can do it and post the link here I will most certainly start adding information.

I have begun collecting this information on at least 14 counties and will gladly post the info immediately.

Thanks alot,
Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[kk897]

149. It's done

I made a new thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x74392

[Alizaryn]

148. Have you sent this on to the Kerry team?

Maybe they will find an interest in this, here's the link:

http://www.johnkerry.com/forms/electiondayreport.php

[banjobob2]

150. Ohio counties w Registration exceeding 100% of the voting age

Yes, something is wrong here! It was another attempt by the democrats to steal an election! The exit polls you are quoting were from the morning when most Bush voters were at work. The late polls pretty much matched the outcome and the tracking polls.

[mikelewis]

154. Yeah, all of us Kerry voters don't have jobs so we vote early

By the way, this is the Democratic Underground, the Nazi Underground is 2 doors down and to the right. Please read the sign over the door next time.

[proud2BlibKansan]

156. good one, Mike

you tell em :)

frickin trolls.