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Battleground States Avg Exit poll deviation from final state polls: 0.48%

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 08:09 AM
Original message
Battleground States Avg Exit poll deviation from final state polls: 0.48%
Edited on Fri Nov-19-04 09:02 AM by TruthIsAll
They agree to within 1/2 of ONE percent! THAT IS, BEFORE THE POST-MIDNIGHT EXIT POLL SHENANIGANS.

Pre- and exit pollsters agree: Kerry won!

Question for state pollsters (Zogby, ARG, etc.):
How come you guys never claimed, like Mitofsky does, that YOUR poll samples were heavily weighted to women?

Deviation statistics:

average 0.48%
median 0.51%
stddev 1.93%

Image
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farmbo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 09:21 AM
Response to Original message
1. Why don't we hire Zogby to do some 'after polls' now?
We could have him poll high numbers in those Fla "Dixiecrat" counties to invalidate (or confirm) the Rovian explanation.

He could also poll key counties in Ohio to see whether those anomalies may have flipped the election.

Hell...I'm good for $100... If TIA signs off on it.

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Nordic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
11. yes. We need that
I don't know why somebody doesn't do that.

Start going door to door and finding out how people voted, compare that with the official "results"
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UL_Approved Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 09:37 AM
Response to Original message
2. Good post
This needs more coverage. This is important. I got a private message about keeping the fight alive. Is there a way to have an information desk or command post type feature at DU for posting election results or irregularities? We need a better combination and organization of results and areas to focus on.
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MominTN Donating Member (82 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 10:04 AM
Response to Original message
3. Exit poll now!
I completely agree that someone needs to do an exit poll now. It needs to be done by a respected polling company with complete agreement up front on number of people, women, etc. in these counties that do not look believable.
The other idea I had earlier is for the DNC in each state to pick a few precincts, call the registered dems, and find out how they voted.
This could easily determine if there is any truth to the Dixiecrat theory. In fact teams of people could call many democrats in other states to determine the truth.
Easy questions:
1. Who did you vote for President?
2. Who did you vote for Senate?
3. Who did you vote for House?
4. Did you have any trouble voting?
5. How and where did you vote?
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shib Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 10:06 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Zogby is in our camp it sure seems
STOCKHOLM - John Zogby, president of the polling firm Zogby International, told IPS he has been calling it "the Armageddon election" for about a year. Independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader believes the Republican Party was able to "steal it before election day."

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1118-11.htm
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progressoid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. Agreed
I've been hoping someone would go to these dixiecrat precincts and find out if this arguement has any merit
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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
5. The Exit Poll Thing is Really Tough to Argue
I'm glad Zogby's on board.

The reason I say that is that some of the exit polls were definitely off and in need of rebalancing. 59% women is not a normal percentage of the vote. PA showed a 20-point Kerry lead early in the day, which I think everyone agrees is an anomaly. NH was also way off from expected results.

What scares me about a followup poll now is that Bush will come out better than he did in the election. People will be less likely to admit voting for Kerry. It will less accurate than either the pre-election polls or the exit polls.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #5
8.  Look at the PA deviation (1.72%). Where do you get 20%?
Edited on Fri Nov-19-04 12:30 PM by TruthIsAll
The 1.72% is the DIFFERENCE IN THE 2-PARTY VOTE.

The evidence screams out that the Exit Polls were CORRECT before they were manipulated around 1AM. They agreed with the final published polls. Take a look at the chart.

The evidence is CLEAR. Kerry won.
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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. The EARLY Pennsylvania Polls Showed Kerry Winning 60-40
Even with time-of-day effects, it looks like there was something wrong with the polls. Among other things, there were about 60% women in the sample.

I'm just saying this makes it harder to argue that the final exit polls were accurate to within a couple of points.
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Petrodollar Warfare Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 09:59 AM
Response to Reply #12
18. TIA is not referring to the 12 noon exit polls, let's be clear...
Edited on Sat Nov-20-04 10:01 AM by Petrodollar Warfare
..in his analysis he is using the 4pm data or 6pm data, both of which were already weighted (ie. gender, race and voter-turnout). Suggesting the "60/40" gender split was the data used by TIA just confuses the matter, as it is obviously not the case. Here's the data:

Pennsylvania NEP exit polls:

Kerry vs. Bush

Poll one: 60-40 (12 noon - unweighted)

Poll two: unknown (2pm - mostly unweighted)

Poll three: 54-45 (4pm - 1st poll weighted for vote turnout)

Final poll: 53-46 (6pm - weighted for voter-turnout & subgroups)

Published: 51-49 (Actual vote tabulation/"machine count")

I hope this clears up the matter.
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hippiegranny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #5
14. why do you think people will be less likely
to admit they voted for Kerry? I'm sure it is MY liberal bias, but after what has happened within the Bush Administration and in Iraq since the election, I'd be loathe to admit it if I had voted for Booooo sh.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #5
19. What bull! People will not be loathe to do anything different in a poll.
People are proud they voted against Bush.
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goldengreek Donating Member (835 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 11:33 AM
Response to Original message
6. This is important.
kick...
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jsascj Donating Member (425 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 12:42 PM
Response to Original message
9. University of Michigan
Does a study call the NES where they collect Pre- AND Post election data. That could be interesting

http://www.umich.edu/~nes/
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glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Very interesting - thank for the link. nt
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somethingisfishy Donating Member (1 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 03:37 PM
Response to Original message
13. re
very interesting indeed. something is very fishy.
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 06:37 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Hi somethingisfishy!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-19-04 04:16 PM
Response to Original message
15. kick.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 09:18 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. Ojai, do you live in the U.S? If not, what country? Just curious.
I appreciate your interest in these posts.
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