NM could flip for Kerry (it has tightened dramatically) 11/15

[SF Bay Area Dem]

Taking a look at the Secretary of States site most of the counties have reported in at 100% (including Bernalillo County (Albuquerque)). However, Sandoval County, which includes the northern suburbs of Albuquerque, it's west side and Rio Rancho only 10/65 of their precincts reporting in.

Here is where it stands:

Results for: Sandoval County Number Of Voters: 0
Results as of: 11/15/2004 4:26:12 PM Precincts Reporting: 10 of 65 *

Candidate or Issue Party Votes Percent

PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
JOHN F. KERRY and JOHN EDWARDS Democratic 1720 61.6%
GEORGE W. BUSH and DICK CHENEY Republican 1045 37.4%

As you recall the networks and the associated press had * up by 5% and called the race for him. I grew up in the area and knew this was not the case.

Take a look at the results as they stand now:

Results for: Statewide Results Number Of Voters: 713165
Results as of: 11/15/2004 4:39:33 PM Counties Reporting: 27

Candidate or Issue Party Votes Percent

PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
JOHN F. KERRY and JOHN EDWARDS Democratic 347065 49.1%
GEORGE W. BUSH and DICK CHENEY Republican 352396 49.8%

Sandoval county could very well flip this race to Kerry. It and Bernalillo County are heavily Democratic. Of course the NM Repukes are calling for the Dem Secretary of State to resign over some perceived scandal so lets see if she does the right thing and count the vote or succumbs to the pressure.

[Parche]

Then we would need another 15 electorates to win!!!!

[Pastor of Deaniacs]

2. It just goes to show you

that "results" are not always what they seem, but more of what people say they are.

[jsamuel]

7. Actually we would only need 13 more to win if we get NM

[BlueCaliDem]

23. Didn't NM Go for Al Gore in 2000 by 365? N/T

[Vincardog]

60. Gore By 366 we registered 10,000 more Native Americans this time

What do you think the real vote was?

[kainah]

3. which raises another question

is anything happening in either Iowa or Nevada? If Kerry lost ohio, but won NM, IA & NV, it would be a 269-269 tie. All three of those states were much closer than Ohio.

Of course, a 269-269 tie goes to the House of Representatives and we know how that would come out.

[John Q. Citizen]

9. Nevada may be recounted/fraud audited

It's moveing along.

[Hobbes199]

12. NV would still probably stay in the Bush camp

But closer than it is. We'd still need OH or FL.

[verdalaven]

28. Tie...

means that Bush cannot claim a "mandate". :)

[JusticeForAll]

4. OK NM is my neighbor....

Why are only 10 of 65 precincts counted so far?

[John Q. Citizen]

11. Precincts in the county

not of 65 in the state

[Gothmog]

5. This is very encouraging

One of my clients' wife spent almost a month in New Mexico working on the campaign. It would be great to pull this race out.

[ahimsa]

6. Do you have a link..

..to this data so we can watch it progress?

Thanks! :)

[jsamuel]

8. http://65.160.159.96/County0.htm

http://65.160.159.96/County0.htm

[ahimsa]

10. Thanks!

:thumbsup:

[c-macdonald]

17. Here's the link...

http://65.160.159.96/County0.htm

I checked out NV and IA websites but I didn't find anything similar to what's going on in NM. Our only hope, at this point, appears to be OH.

[Carolab]

13. Write to her AND to your Attorney General

Tell them it's their JOB, STUPID--

Just because a bunch of assholes threaten us we can't keep backing down!!!

Jesus, where are the balls in this party?

[jsamuel]

14. Anyone have the number of registered voters in Sandoval County, NM?

[jsamuel]

15. Strange... Look at this

John F. KERRY DEMOCRATIC PARTY 21,062 48.00%
George W. BUSH REPUBLICAN PARTY 22,327 50.89%

from Sandoval County, NM

http://www.sandovalcounty.com/BureauElection/votingresults.html

It was marked 11/3/04. Did something happen to make them do a recount?

[jsamuel]

16. If 43,000 people voted as shown, and the ratio stays the same, KERRY WINS!

Kerry 1700, Bush 1000

End result with same ratio:

Kerry 27074, Bush 15926

Kerry gain = 11000

KERRY WINS NEW MEXICO BY 5,000!!!

[fnottr]

18. hate to burst your bubble

but Sandoval county isn't 'heavily Democratic', it's actually slightly Republican. I don't know why only 10 precents have reported, but I'd be very very surprised if Kerry wins Sandoval county. Still, the race is getting closer, the unoffical count has Bush with a 5300 vote lead.

[jsamuel]

19. Thanks, the bubble wasn't big anyway

:P

[SF Bay Area Dem]

20. Your not bursting my bubble... but...

I have not lived in NM for eight years but Coralles, Placitas, the north valley and the pueblos vote heavily Dem correct? I know Rio Rancho could be a toss-up because of all of the transplants from out of state. Why only 10% reporting in? I don't know. I need to check Sante Fe and Taos counties --- big time dems. However, Los Alamos county skews it as it is filled with Repukes lab workers...

Thoughts?

[jsamuel]

21. What IS THIS?!!

John F. KERRY DEMOCRATIC PARTY 21,062 48.00%
George W. BUSH REPUBLICAN PARTY 22,327 50.89%

from Sandoval County, NM
http://www.sandovalcounty.com/BureauElection/votingresults.html

It was marked 11/3/04. Did something happen to make them do a recount?

[BlueCaliDem]

24. No. As Can Be Depended On, the Media Gave Bush NM...

...while they were still counting the votes!
Most people don't know, that the election isn't over--not by a long shot!

States haven't all certified their votes, and even if they did, there's a period wherein candidates can request a recount.
The election isn't formally over until January 6, 2005.
At least, that's what I heard today on the Randi Rhodes radio program, and that makes sense.
Remember, only the votes of the We the People elect our politicians, no matter how the MSM tries to rush the process.
After January 6, it's basically over. I thought it was December 13th, but it's January 6 2005.

[bobbieinok]

31. 12-12-2000 SCOTUS said the 12th was the deadline, so no time

to do their required type of (re)count.

At the time and later, some people said NO the deadline is Jan 6...and I think 6 states were working on certifiying the votes up to the 6th.

The Dec 12 deadline was apparently another con to try to make the whole thing appear 'legal'.

[BlueCaliDem]

36. In 2000 SCotUS Made A Thereforeto Unprecedented Judicial Ruling...

...by usurping the Florida Supreme Court that stunned conservative, as well as liberal Constitutional law professors across the nation!
The 5 partisan Justices believed that their good friend Dubya, should have his rights under the equal protection clause in the Constitution protected, rather than the will of the people; disrespecting the sound ruling from Florida's highest court.
You're right. We have up until January 6th to prove election fraud in as many states, districts as we can!
Even if SCotUS decides to intervene, and legislate from the bench again, there would be too many cases for them to preside over.
An excellent strategy, I must say.
We're only in the recount-request phase, then comes the contesting phase, and then comes the final certification phase, I believe.
All in all, the election process in the United States is very complex.

[NVMojo]

35. In Nevada, you only get 3 days after the election to file for a

recount if you are the losing candidate.

Bev is going to do a fraud audit in Nevada. It's a weird state and the SOS is a Bush groupie. He knew when he got rid of our paper ballots last year, statewide, that the NV Constitution doesn't address electronic voting and says a recount can be done with ballots.... He's going to go to the state leg. this year to change it but may use that law to cover his butt in Las Vegas where they had old Sequoia with no printers that are difficult to vte.

[BlueCaliDem]

37. After the Election or After Certification of the Votes? Because how...

...can a candidate request a recount when all the votes hadn't been counted??

[GraphicQueen]

43. One must understand

that the largest amount of Democrats in Dona Ana County are Hispanic and it is not hard for people to scare them away. I have lived here for years now and I have worked the last three years for the Democrat party and I have seen plenty of crooked crap from both major parties but the Republicans have no qualms at all to threaten people and they will most surely do it and have done it. Nobody has ever been able to prove it but we have been told about it. I live out in a mostly Hispanic area and these people are damn well scared of the politicians and the cops and they don't vote. I am not able to get them out to vote no matter what I ask or say. They just keep telling me how they have been told not to.

[hippiegranny]

49. what you just said...

THE MEDIA GAVE BUSH NM. Basically, the MEDIA gave him the whole elction. His so called legitimacy and mandate are the result of THE MEDIA herding the election the way they wanted it to go. Just like in 2000, make him appear the winner and anything that comes after (like the facts) looks like spin. OHIO was definitely called by the MEDIA.

Does anyone see a pattern here? (Not that we didn't already know this - but drives it home)

[Carolab]

30. Provisionals hadn't been counted yet

I think--anyone?

[fnottr]

25. Here's how I understand it

The Valley is in Bernalillo county, Corrales is in both Bernalillo and Sandoval, I think the county line almost splits it perfectly in half. But yes, both places are heavily Dem. However, Corrales only has about 7000 people in it total. Rio Rancho is all in Sandoval and has about 55,000 people, but it leans Republican. The pueblos are heavily democratic but have major voter turn out issues. I have no idea why they only have 10% of the vote in, but here's the totals from 2000 http://web.state.nm.us/Election/00General/conty028.HTM. Hope that helps...

[SF Bay Area Dem]

22. Why in the hell do they keep voting for that *itch Heather Wilson?

Why in the hell do they keep voting for that *itch Heather Wilson? Her district is the west side? I do not get why the good people of Albuquerque keep voting for her? What has she done for the community? It seems to me that she is nothing but a shrill for *. I have never seen someone who will spread eagle for the admin like her.

[fnottr]

26. tell me about it

I think it has more to do with demographics than anything else. She's a female vetran, and with such a large military base up in ABQ, it makes her look good to a lot of people, particulary moderate, middle class women who usually vote Dem.

[siliconefreak]

39. Oh, I can't stand her...

I e-mailed her office after her ridiculous public display of outrage over Janet Jackson's boob several months ago. Did any of you see it on C-SPAN?

I told her that she really should consider seeing a psychiatrist for her uncontrollable anger. She was so angry that she was practically crying.

[CAcyclist]

27. Huh, Repubs doing The Same Thing In California

"Of course the NM Repukes are calling for the Dem Secretary of State to resign over some perceived scandal so lets see if she does the right thing and count the vote or succumbs to the pressure. "

Funny, they are doing the same thing to Kevin Shelley in California.

[fnottr]

29. I wouldn't worry for a second about this

At least as long as Richardson's our governer

[bobbieinok]

32. and Culver in IA

[ebayfool]

34. they are doing the same thing to Kevin Shelley in California -

Course, that wouldn't have anything to do with him nailing on Diebold ... would it!? LOL

Hiya CAcyclist, didn't you mention before that your mom lives in(((shudder))) Kern County?

[BlueCaliDem]

38. I Don't Worry About Shelley. He's Tougher Than Nails! The FIRST to...

...force Diebold to settle to the tune of 2.6 Million dollars; went after Enron, and Duke like a pitbull outta hell! Made them pay a large percentage back.
Shelley's one tough attorney!

Course, that wouldn't have anything to do with him nailing on Diebold ... would it!? LOL

Nawww...
Right-wingers, and the GOP are that vindictive? Who woulda thunk it? :crazy: ;)

[CAcyclist]

40. Yes, she does - I was raised in Bakersfield

Kern County has lots of things going for it if you ignore the rednecks and the smog and the too-wide roads with the too-fast cars and the complete takeover of all retail by chains. I think the oil derricks are quite lovely.

[spotbird]

41. But the Democrats congratulate Blackwell in Ohio!

I'm starting to give up on our side.

[Woo]

33. I saw...

A spreadsheet from New Mexico the other day -- I think it was from BBV.org -- showing up to 196% turn out in the repub column in serveral counties(some tall cheatin went on in this state) -- where Kerry didn't seem to get much over 70% --

I figure that last county has yet to report in because they've noticed something really screwed up -- they missed the reporting deadline, they have to be re-counting by hand, but no one seems to know what's going on.

[tbuddha]

42. RECOUNT NEW MEXICO

Does anyone know what it takes to get a recount in New Mexico?

[Wordie]

48. Is there an automatic trigger, when the margin is small, as in OH?

I believe that in OH, the magic number is 1/2%. If the margin falls below that, a recount will automatically occur.

Does NM have anything similar in their election laws, or does a specific request need to be made by a candidate? Can others make the request? What are the laws regarding requests and are the Greens and Naderites looking at NM too? What are the deadlines?

I sure hope someone here knows the answers to all these questions. I am getting very tired of the "mandate" comments, and if NM turned around it would be awfully nice, even if it ultimately didn't change the result. (I realize OH is far more important right now, I'm just hoping.)

[vireo]

52. Any candidate may request a recount

according to this site: http://www.electionline.org/site/docs/html/recount_provisions_-_part_1.htm

The requesting party must pay for it but gets reimbursed if the winner is changed.

[Hobbes199]

53. Thanks for the link!

[Wordie]

54. Thanks. That is very helpful. So, Blackwell or other Repubs don't decide.

[wantkerryin]

44. kerry not all that behind statewide...

only .7 points!

http://65.160.159.96/County0.htm

[GraphicQueen]

45. One must understand

that the largest amount of Democrats in Dona Ana County are Hispanic and it is not hard for people to scare them away. I have lived here for years now and I have worked the last three years for the Democrat party and I have seen plenty of crooked crap from both major parties but the Republicans have no qualms at all to threaten people and they will most surely do it and have done it. Nobody has ever been able to prove it but we have been told about it. I live out in a mostly Hispanic area and these people are damn well scared of the politicians and the cops and they don't vote. I am not able to get them out to vote no matter what I ask or say. They just keep telling me how they have been told not to.

[NMFreedom]

46. Hey there GraphicQueen

Well, your post confirmed what I was suspecting, that the hispanic are fearful of getting out and voting. I look at the numbers and am just shocked. I was considering putting my efforts to use for future elections in the more rural parts of New Mexico. This is disheartening to say the least, what a shame. Just makes me sick
NMFreedom

[GraphicQueen]

47. OH, I completely

understand your feelings. The biggest problem is also that both the Dems and Repubs are cheating and stealing and doing such crooked things. The Dona Ana County Clerk was convicted of 5 felony counts and just put on probation. Unfortunately he was and is a Democrat. I couldn't stand the man. He absolutely refused to allow me to register as a Libertarian years ago. I had to go to my house and get my video cam and then he let me register. I did change over to a registered Democrat but please believe me it is terrible down here.

[go west young man]

50. How do we get a recount started here?

We need this state just in case the fraud doesn't stick but the election flips with Ohio and New Mexico recounts. Can anyone get any info up on where we can donate to get a recount going here? The margin is too small to not take a chance.

[NMFreedom]

51. That is awful GraphicQueen

Geez, that is so against the law! How often does that happen in our State, I wonder.So what was he put on probation for? I am shocked that he is allowed to still be the county clerk! Did you see this on the Dona Ana County Website?
http://www2.co.dona-ana.nm.us/results/results.html

Do you know what's up with that?
NMFreedom

[GraphicQueen]

55. Oh, he lost his job as County Clerk...

but he keeps telling us all how he plans on running again when his probation runs out. My goodness, they even let him register voters this year.

About the Dona Ana County website...Yeah, they supposedly had trouble with the counts from the precincts and provisional ballots. They haven't even done the canvas yet. That was supposed to be done today sometime. Have no idea if it did. Please remember that this is the same county that found those 300 and some votes for Gore that put us as a BLUE state. So, no telling what is happening.

[gregoryptm]

56. Sandoval County Issues (New Mexico)

Hi. I am running a little site called the New Mexico Information Center for Voter Fraud, along with Free, a frequent poster here. We're located at:

http://www.gregoryp.com/fraud/

I have been following the Sandoval County discrepancy all morning. It seems that the State of New Mexico's website has posted about 10% of the total vote for 2004, which is a far cry from the totals of 2000. I had thought this might mean a BIG pile of lost or unreported votes, and I called the SOS office this morning to ask them about it. They finallly called back about an hour ago, and reported that they have not updated those numbers since election night and that they couldn't tell me what the count was. They also told me that *no one* would know the count until after the election was certified.

Imagine my surprise when Free told me that numbers that might be closer to reality were at the Sandoval County website, located at:

http://www.sandovalcounty.com

These numbers still aren't "real" - they're leaps and bounds higher than the 2000 election, but they do reflect the voter registration numbers for that county, which is around 60,000. If anyone has any ideas about what exactly has been going on in New Mexico, please let me know what you think.

[Karenca]

58. Welcome

Welcome to DU, gregory!

:toast:

[MrUnderhill]

57. Unlikely at this point. But it could get close enough to blame Nader.

He took around 4,000 votes.

[WI_DEM]

59. it is unlikely many of them would have voted at all

This election was too big and had too much at stake, Nader only got about 10% of his 2000 vote, and I think it is unlikely that these last hardcore Naderites would have voted for Kerry had Nader not been on the ballot. If anything they might have voted for Cobb.

[gregoryptm]

61. Oh please no.

Please don't blame Ralph Nader, that gives him more power than he's worth. While George Bush was last on my list to run the country, Kerry was a hard bargain after being a Howard Dean supporter. And after the way Kerry utterly *backed down* before all the votes were counted...let's just say that I would've expected a lot more from the little guy from Vermont, and I'd be *really* hard-pressed to vote for John Kerry again. Blaming Nader is silly - learning from Nader is something else entirely, which is something I believe the Democratic Party utterly failed to do last time around.

gregoryp(tm)
http://www.gregoryp.com/fraud