9/12 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA 293 EV; WHY MSM POLLSTERS "ADJUST" PRE-ELECT & FINAL EXIT POLL WGTS

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: September 12

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

9/12/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
Electoral Vote

Obama
McCain
 46.15 (50.48) 
 45.27 (49.52) 
 44.80 (49.12) 
 46.40 (50.88) 
51.30
48.70
50.08
49.92
 293 
 245 

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre  UVA
5-Poll Mov Avg

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Rasmussen
Gallup
Hotline/FD
FOX
NBC/WSJ

CBS News
CNN
ABC/WP
IBD/TIPP
USA/Gallup

Hotline/FD
CBS News
USA/Gallup
CBS News
CNN

Registered V
vs     Likely V
Poll Averages

Date
            
9/10
9/10
9/10
9/09
9/08

9/07
9/07
9/07
9/07
9/07

9/04
9/03
8/31
8/31
8/31

Size
            
3000 LV
2765 RV
924 RV
900 RV
1000 RV

655 RV
942 RV
1000 LV
868 RV
823 LV

916 RV
734 RV
1835 RV
781 RV
927 RV

RV avg
LV avg
Total

MoE
            
1.79%
1.86%
3.22%
3.27%
3.10%

3.83%
3.19%
3.10%
3.33%
3.42%

3.24%
3.62%
2.29%
3.51%
3.22%

Obama
            
48
44
44
42
46

44
48
47
40
44

46
42
50
48
49

45.4
46.3
45.5

McCain
            
48
48
46
45
45

46
48
49
45
54

40
42
43
40
48

44.8
50.3
45.8

Other
            
4
8
10
13
9

10
4
4
15
2

14
16
7
12
3

9.8
3.3
8.7

Spread
            
0
(4)
(2)
(3)
1

(2)
0
(2)
(5)
(10)

6
0
7
8
1

0.5
(4.0)
(0.3)

 

Obama
            
44.8
44.0
44.8
45.4
45.0

44.6
45.0
43.8
44.4
46.0

47.0
47.2
47.6
47.2
47.4

McCain
            
46.4
46.0
46.0
46.6
46.6

48.4
47.2
46.0
44.8
43.8

42.6
44.0
43.6
44.0
44.6

 

Obama
            
50.1
50.0
50.3
50.2
50.0

48.8
49.7
49.9
50.9
52.1

53.2
52.5
52.9
52.5
52.2

McCain
            
49.9
50.0
49.7
49.8
50.0

51.2
50.3
50.1
49.1
47.9

46.8
47.5
47.1
47.5
47.8

Spread
            
0.2
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.1

(2.4)
(0.6)
(0.2)
1.8
4.2

6.5
5.0
5.8
5.0
4.4

Win Prob
               
53.5
50.0
57.7
54.8
51.0

27.0
42.2
48.0
69.8
88.8

97.5
91.0
99.3
91.7
91.0

 

 

The national polls indicate a close race. The National 5-poll projection model is a virtual tie. But Obama leads the State Monte Carlo simulation model by 51.3–48.7% with 293 expected electoral votes.

There has been much discussion regarding the recent McCain “surge” in the national polls. State polls are necessary for projecting the electoral vote. But state polls lag the nationals by 2–3 weeks. View the relationship in the State vs. National vote projection trend graph. There is a direct correlation between the national popular vote and the electoral vote. If Obama gets 51% of the 2-party national vote, his Monte Carlo electoral vote win probability is 90% (see the table below).

Most of the national and state polls are sponsored by the corporate MSM. But that’s nothing new: Democratic poll numbers always exceed the recorded vote but are less than the True Vote. USAToday/Gallup and other national polls increased the Republican Party ID percentage weighting, which boosted McCain’s poll numbers.

Recall that the 2004 and 2006 Final National Exit Polls weightings were adjusted to match the recorded vote miscount. But all category cross-tabs had to be changed, not just Party ID. Of course, the Final Exit Poll (state and national) is always matched to the Recorded vote, even though it may be fraudulent — as it was in 2000, 2004 and 2006. This cannot be emphasized enough. Say it loud, again and again.

In 2004, the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) had a 38–35 Democrat/Republican 'Party ID' mix.

Kerry won  the 12:22am Preliminary NEP by 51–48%.    ( 13,047 random sample, 1% MoE )

The mix was changed to 37–37 in the Final NEP  to 'force' a match to the Recorded vote;

Bush won  the 1:25pm 'forced' Final NEP by 51–48%.

Likewise, the Gore/Bush 'Voted 2000' weights were changed from 39–41 to 37–43 in the Final    ('13047' & '13660' here).

The election was stolen.  Bush was the official winner by 50.7–48.3% with 286 EV.  The Final Exit Polls were "adjusted" accordingly.

•••
The Great Election Fraud Lockdown: Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Votes

Professional associations such as AAPOR, media pundits and election forecasters never discuss Election Fraud. On the contrary, a complicit media has been in a permanent election fraud lockdown, while it relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won BOTH elections. They want you to believe that Democrats always do better in the exit polls, because Republican voters are reluctant responders. But they never consider other, more plausible explanations — such as uncounted votes and stuffed ballots.

•••

full post with State Model: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7050208&mesg_id=7050208 -x

 

[Greyskye]

1. Recs are coming in...

Here's a :kick:

[autorank]

2. That's a perfect 10! k*r

Outstanding. There is desperation in the air for the Quisling media and those who think that the ship of Bush won't go down. It is but they play their games like switching the Republican - Democrat weighting in the "McCain bounce" poll, something that's transparently absurd. In 2004, they waited until the very last day to rig the pre election polls. This makes perfect sense. People are focused on so much at that time that the miracle of a six point shift from Kerry to Bush went unreported, not surprising, and unnoticed until after the fact.

You can be sure they won't make the mistake they did in the final exit, a 60% plus increase in "big city" turnout to cover Bush's losses in the Red/rural segment - down from 23% of the electorate in 2000 to 16% in 2004. They'll make another one though & TIA will find it.

Great stuff!

P.S.

How did you do those links. I'm envious.

[Greyskye]

4. Links

  	
And a kick.

Is this the formatting you're asking about?

  [link:URL|Text]
URL is without the "http://".
Example: [link:www.dcscripts.com|DCScripts] 

[autorank]

3. Kick for the Truth

:kick:

[Stevepol]

5. K&R! n/t

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Looks like fear and hope are running neck and neck...n/t

[Raksha]

7. K&R for TruthIsAll!!!

:kick:

[BeFree]

8. The key element of the deceit

In 2004, the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) had a 38–35 Democrat/Republican 'Party ID' mix.

Kerry won the 12:22am Preliminary NEP by 51–48%.

The mix was changed to 37–37 in the Final NEP to 'force' a match to the Recorded vote;

Bush won the 1:25pm 'forced' Final NEP by 51–48%.

Likewise, the Gore/Bush 'Voted 2000' weights were changed from 39–41 to 37–43 in the Final.

The changes made after the 12:22am NEP is the smoking gun. Not only were the changes implausible, but not mathematically possible given how they were supposed to fit with other numbers.

That 38% of the voters were D's vs. 35 R's is plausible. 37-37 is not.

Frankly, the exit poll people who made the changes should be brought up on fraud charges.

[Kurovski]

9. Kick. (nt)

[tiptoe]

10. Updated link for '37-37 in the FINAL NEP'

 

...
Recall that the 2004 and 2006 Final National Exit Polls weightings were adjusted to match the recorded vote miscount. But all category cross-tabs had to be changed, not just Party ID. Of course, the Final Exit Poll (state and national) is always matched to the Recorded vote, even though it may be fraudulent — as it was in 2000, 2004 and 2006. This cannot be emphasized enough. Say it loud, again and again.

In 2004, the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) had a 38–35 Democrat/Republican 'Party ID' mix.

Kerry won  the 12:22am Preliminary NEP by 51–48%.    ( 13,047 random sample, 1% MoE )

The mix was changed to 37–37 in the Final NEP  to 'force' a match to the Recorded vote;

Bush won  the 1:25pm 'forced' Final NEP by 51–48%.

Likewise, the Gore/Bush 'Voted 2000' weights were changed from 39–41 to 37–43 in the Final    ('13047' & '13660' here).

The election was stolen.  Bush was the official winner by 50.7–48.3% with 286 EV.  The Final Exit Polls were "adjusted" accordingly.

...