7/31 Election Model: Obama 370EV but GOP-friendly Nat'l polls (Ras,Gallup,USA/Gallp) wanna horserace

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2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: July 31

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

7/31/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
ELECTORAL VOTE

Obama
McCain
 46.99 (52.73) 
 42.12 (47.27) 
 47.20 (51.19) 
 45.00 (48.81) 
53.52
46.48
51.88
48.12
370
168

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre  U V A
5-Poll Mov Avg

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

5P MA

Trend
                            
Gallup
Rasmussen
CNN
USA/Gallup
Dem Corps

FOX
NBC
NYT/CBS
ABC/WP
Zogby

Quinnipiac
Newsweek
Pew
CNN
DemCorp

Date
            
30-Jul
30-Jul
29-Jul
27-Jul
24-Jul

23-Jul
21-Jul
14-Jul
13-Jul
13-Jul

13-Jul
10-Jul
29-Jun
29-Jun
25-Jun

Size
            
2679RV
3000LV
914RV
791LV
1004LV

900RV
1003RV
1462RV
1000RV
1039LV

1725LV
1037RV
1574RV
906RV
2000RV

MoE
            
1.89%
1.79%
3.24%
3.48%
3.09%

3.27%
3.09%
2.56%
3.10%
3.04%

2.36%
3.04%
2.47%
3.26%
2.19%

Obama
            
45
45
51
45
50

41
47
45
50
47

50
44
48
50
49

McCain
            
44
43
44
49
45

40
41
39
42
40

41
41
40
45
45

Spread
            
1
2
7
(4)
5

1
6
6
8
7

9
3
8
5
4

 

Obama
            
47.2
46.4
46.8
45.6
46.6

46.0
47.8
47.2
47.8
47.8

48.2
47.6
48.6
49.0
49.2

McCain
            
45
44.2
43.8
42.8
41.4

40.4
40.6
40.6
40.8
41.4

42.4
42.8
42.0
42.8
41.0

 

Obama
            
51.88
52.04
52.44
52.56
53.80

54.16
54.76
54.52
54.64
54.28

53.84
53.36
54.24
53.92
55.08

McCain
            
48.12
47.96
47.56
47.44
46.20

45.84
45.24
45.48
45.36
45.72

46.16
46.64
45.76
46.08
44.92

Diff
         
3.8
4.1
4.9
5.1
7.6

8.3
9.5
9.0
9.3
8.6

7.7
6.7
8.5
7.8
10.2

Win Prob
               
91.38
91.05
93.03
94.72
99.31

99.66
99.95
99.92
99.94
99.85

99.76
99.19
99.92
99.76
100

MoE
            
2.70%
2.97%
3.24%
3.10%
3.02%

3.01%
2.83%
2.82%
2.80%
2.83%

2.66%
2.74%
2.64%
2.72%
2.19%

 

 

National polls are a current snapshot of the race and would normally be considered a leading indicator of the aggregate state polls. So what’s going on? Obama’s national lead is vanishing. His latest 5-poll projection average is just 51.9%, since his Gallup and Rasmussen tracking poll margins have dropped to 1% and 2%, respectively. And he trails in the USA Today/Gallup poll by 4%! Is it a media conspiracy to keep it close, while McCain resorts to Rovian attacks?

Based on the latest state polls, projections and win probabilities, the 5000–election trial Monte Carlo simulation indicates that Obama will win 53.5% of the two-party vote with 370 electoral votes — if the election is fraud-free and held today. The base case scenario allocates 60% of undecided/other votes to Obama (UVA).

Since Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulation election trials, his electoral vote win probability is 100%. The probability of winning the electoral vote is based on a 5000 trial Monte Carlo simulation; the probability of winning the popular vote is calculated using the Excel normal distribution function. The near 100% match of state and national model vote shares and win probabilities confirms the polls as well as the mathematical methodology — just as it did in the final 2004 Election Model projection.

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.

In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.

In 2000 and 2004, the discrepancy was primarily due to two factors:

1. 5 million votes (70-80% Democratic) were uncounted in 2000; 3 million in 2004.
   
2. In 2004, approximately 5 million Kerry votes were switched to Bush.

What would it take for Obama to lose? Assume the base case projection scenario but with 3% of total votes cast uncounted and 6% of Obama’s votes (1 out of 17) switched to McCain. Obama will then have just 251 EV. The effect of uncounted and switched vote rates on the EV and popular vote are displayed graphically by clicking on the links below.

In the street card game scam called Three-Card Monte the victim, or mark, is tricked into betting a sum of money if he can find the money card among three face-down cards. Our elections are the equivalent of Three-Card Monte. What you see is not what you get. In this democracy game the voter is the mark. The Election Model is doomed to fail in a Three-Card Monte election.

Zogby was correct in 2004 when he projected that Kerry would win. Unfortunately, Bush won a rigged Recorded vote. Kerry won the True vote, but like Three-Card Monte, what you see is not what you get. Election forecasters and complicit media pundits who projected a Bush win avoid discussing the overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won TWO elections.

Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. Although the media commissioned exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they never explained why mathematically impossible weights were used in the Final Exit Poll to force a match the recorded vote count. Bush won the corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote.

McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 24% approval.
A massive new voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.

These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral vote

THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

Last
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

7/31/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV

Obama
McCain
46.99
42.12
47.20
45.00
53.52
46.48
51.88
48.12
370
168


Win Probability (2.5% MoE)
Obama
 98.40
 82.52
 99.71
 92.97
100.00

 

Sensitivity Analysis I

Undecided Voter Allocation Scenario
Obama
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%

 

State model:  Projected 2-party vote share
Obama
McCain
51.35
48.65
52.44
47.56
53.52
46.48
54.61
45.39
55.70
44.30

 

MoE	 Obama popular vote win probability
2.0 %
3.0 %
90.70
81.10
99.20
94.40
99.97
98.94
100.00
99.87
100.00
99.99

 

Monte Carlo   Obama electoral vote win probability (trial wins/ 5000)
Win
Probability
4811
96.22
4996
99.92
5000
100.00
5000
100.00
5000
100.00

 

Obama Average Electoral Vote
Average
Median
312
313
341
341
370
371
400
400
433
425

 
 
 
 
 
 

Maximum
Minimum
391
232
428
266
451
287
469
323
491
339

 

95% Confidence Level
Upper
Lower
358
266
385
296
414
326
444
356
472
381

 

States Won
27
30
31
36
38

 

Sensitivity Analysis II: Vote share effects on Obama Win Probability

Vote Share
48.17
49.24
50.31
51.38
52.45
53.52

Electoral Vote
Win Probability
204
 0.2
238
 7.5
271
52.9
305
93.2
339
99.86
369
100

Popular Vote
  MoE  
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%


3.7
7.6
11.6


22.9
27.6
31.0


62.1
59.7
58.1


91.2
86.1
81.7


99.2
97.3
94.6


99.97
99.71
98.94

 

 

2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

National Model — see atop.
State Model

 
 
State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
Diff < MoE
Projection
Win
MC Trial
Flip to
 
Total

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
       
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
       
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
       
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
       
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
       
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
       
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
       
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
       
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
       
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
       
EV
 538 
       
9
3
10
6
55
       
9
7
3
3
27
       
15
4
4
21
11
       
7
6
8
9
4
       
10
12
17
10
6
       
11
3
5
5
4
       
15
5
31
15
3
       
20
7
7
21
4
       
8
3
11
34
5
       
3
13
11
5
10
3
       
Obama
 47.0 % 
       
36
41
42
37
53

47
55
90
50
49

42
61
39
50
48

50
32
39
37
46

54
54
46
49
42

45
48
32
47
47

50
49
54
44
42

47
37
46
49
55

40
43
36
39
31

63
47
53
37
50
40
 
McCain
 42.1 % 
       
50
48
39
47
38

45
35
9
41
47

53
31
52
37
47

42
52
44
54
35

30
29
42
41
52

45
43
50
45
43

36
43
34
47
45

45
42
37
40
31

53
47
41
48
55

29
46
41
45
39
53
      
Diff
 4.9 % 
      
(14)
(7)
3
(10)
15
 
2
20
81
9
2
 
(11)
30
(13)
13
1
 
8
(20)
(5)
(17)
11
 
24
25
4
8
(10)
 
0
5
(18)
2
4
 
14
6
20
(3)
(3)
 
2
(5)
9
9
24
 
(13)
(4)
(5)
(9)
(24)
 
34
1
12
(8)
11
(13)
 
BO EV
 362 
       


10

55

9
7
3
3
27


4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10



3

5
4

15
5
31



20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

 
8
  207  


3
10



9



27





11

7

8





17
10


11
3

5
4


5

15
3

20
7





3
11




13

5


         
Obama
 53.5 % 
       
44.4
47.6
53.4
46.6
58.4

51.8
61.0
90.6
55.4
51.4

45.0
65.8
44.4
57.8
51.0

54.8
41.6
49.2
42.4
57.4

63.6
64.2
53.2
55.0
45.6

51.0
53.4
42.8
51.8
53.0

58.4
53.8
61.2
49.4
49.8

51.8
49.6
56.2
55.6
63.4

44.2
49.0
49.8
46.8
39.4

67.8
51.2
56.6
47.8
56.6
44.2
 
Probability
 100.0 % 
       
0.3
12.0
95.2
4.8
100.0

81.1
100.0
100.0
99.6
75.4

0.7
100.0
0.3
100.0
68.8

99.1
0.0
34.8
0.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
94.2
99.3
1.6

68.8
95.2
0.0
81.1
92.9

100.0
96.9
100.0
38.4
46.1

81.1
42.2
99.9
99.7
100.0

0.2
31.2
46.1
5.8
0.0

100.0
72.2
99.9
14.1
99.9
0.2
       
Avg EV
 370 



10

55

9
7
3
3
27


4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10


11
3

5
4

15
5
31



20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

    
       
Obama
 11 



Obama



Obama



Obama





Obama

Obama











Obama
Obama

Obama



Obama




Obama












Obama




    

Uncounted and Switched Vote Fraud Scenarios

The Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors: uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and switched votes. Historical evidence shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts. These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet. In fact, there is no mention of fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But it’s understandable. No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them. Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t? Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress.

In 2004 approximately 3% of all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below) to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”. Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election. That’s why the Election Model now includes a fraud scenario analysis. Assuming that 3% of total votes cast are not counted, based on the latest polls McCain needs 6% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. This could be done by rigging strategically selected touch screens, optical scanners, punched cards, levers and central tabulators. Is it just a coincidence that Karl Rove is advising McCain?

The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios. The scenarios range from the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5%, 10%). For simplicity, the model assumes that the scenarios apply equally in each state - admittedly an unrealistic assumption. But it provides a good approximation of the impact on the projected electoral vote and popular vote share.

These are a few reasons why Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is preferable to election forecasting methods used in the media and academia:

1. Academic models forecast national vote shares only (months in advance of the election) using regression analysis of economic and political time-series.
   
2. The Election Model projects the popular and electoral vote (and win probabilities) based on the latest state and national polls right up to the election.
   
3. MC does not arbitrarily designate states as being “too close to call”; it automatically factors in the poll-based win probabilities.
   
4. MC is a powerful tool for analyzing risk-based systems (i.e. electoral vote models) when deriving an analytical solution is impractical or impossible.

The 2008 Election Calculator Model

This model uses prior election votes cast, mortality and estimated voter turnout to calculate the True Vote.
It was originally developed to determine the 2004 True vote after the fact.
It does not calculate the corresponding Electoral vote.
But we can estimate the Electoral vote and win probability from the popular vote.
National Exit Poll vote shares of returning voters were key inputs.

As of today, the 2008 Election Calculator confirms the Election Model:
Obama has 54.1% and will win the True Vote by 71 – 59m.
Input consists of 2004 total votes cast (recorded plus uncounted), mortality and 2004 voter turnout in 2008.
The vote shares are similar to the 2004 National Exit Poll shares of returning and new voters.

2008 True Vote Election Calculator Forecast
                               Estimated vote share (see National  Exit Poll)
2004       Turnout      Votes         Mix      Obama      McCain      Other
DNV         -           17.2         13.1%      59%         40%         1%
Kerry       95%         60.5         46.2%      89%         10%         1%
Bush        95%         51.6         39.4%      11%         88%         1%
Other       95%         1.6           1.2%      70%         11%         19%
Total       113.7       130.9       100.0%     54.1%       44.7%       1.2%
                                    130.9      70.8        58.5        1.6  

Popular and Electoral Vote Win Probabilities

There are a number of election forecasting sites on the Internet which give McCain more than a 3% chance of winning the election. That would be true if Obama was leading by 3% in which case he could expect 300 EV. But it’s a mathematical impossibility based on the latest polls since he leads the two-party vote by 6-7%. A 6% margin (see table) will result in an electoral vote win 99.98% of the time. The sites provide potential cover for another stolen election, whether they realize it or not.

Some election projection sites give probabilities based on the election voting markets which currently give McCain a 30-40% chance of winning. Unless the market participants suspect that the election will once again be stolen, the inflated McCain “market” prices only reflect the “horserace” propaganda promoted by the media to make it appear that it will be a close election. But the state and national polls say otherwise.

Fifty state polls (zogby.com and electoral-vote.com) and 5 national polls (realclearpolitics.com) confirm that Obama is leading by 54-46%. And his lead has been increasing over the past six weeks. The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) is in effect. The more polls, the more samples, the greater the confidence that the sample mean vote is close to the True Vote. The LLN confirms that with 54% of the two-party vote, Obama has a 100% probability of winning the Electoral Vote.

In each election trial, the winner is determined by a random process based on state win probabilities which are in turn determined by the latest poll.

• For example, assume that Obama is projected to win Florida’s 27 EV with 51% of the popular vote (based on the latest polls). Many electoral vote calculators would simply add the 27 EV to the Obama column to determine his projected electoral vote total or just say it’s the too-close to call. But that is an over-simplification; Based on his projected share, Obama has a 69% probability of winning Florida; McCain has a 31% chance%.
  
  Many electoral vote calculators would simply add the 27 EV to the Obama column to determine his projected electoral vote total or just say it’s the too-close to call.
  
  But that is an over-simplification.
  
  Based on his projected share, Obama has a 69% probability of winning Florida; McCain has a 31% chance.
  
  Obama’s 69% FL win probability is compared to a random number (RND) between zero and one. If the RND is less or equal to 0.69, Obama wins Florida’s 27 EV; otherwise McCain wins. In each election trial, the RND/ win probability comparison is applied to each state. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 EV. The electoral vote win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000. Since Obama won all 5000 election trials, his win probability is 100%.
  In each election trial, the RND/ win probability comparison is applied to each state. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 EV.

The Electoral Vote win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000. Since Obama won all 5000 election trials, his win probability is 100%.

The Popular Vote win probability is calculated using the Excel normal distribution function and should closely match the Monte Carlo electoral vote win probability. The projected two-party vote share and the standard deviation (MoE/1.96) are the only required inputs to the function. The state probabilities assume a 4% MoE.

The National Model calculates the moving average projection based on the latest 5 national polls assuming the 60% UVA scenario. Ideally, the National model projection will be a leading indicator of the State. The normal distribution function calculates the win probabilities using the average standard deviation (MoE/1.96) of the latest 5 polls.

2004 Election Model Review

On Election Day 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating.
He won the official vote by 62 – 59m (122.3m recorded).
But according to the 2004 Census, 125.7m votes were cast.
Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted.
The majority (70–80%) of uncounted ballots are in Democratic minority precincts.
Including uncounted votes, the adjusted count becomes 62.9–61.5m.

• The Final 2004 Election Model projected that Kerry would win 337 – 201 EV with 51.8%.
  
• Preliminary State and National exit polls also indicated that Kerry won.
  
• Bush was the official winner by 50.7 – 48.3% with 286 EV.
  
  The Final National Exit poll was 'forced' to match the fraudulent Recorded Vote Count.
  
  Final state projections and national exit polls are shown here.

The Election Model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models.

• In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
  
• The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.

Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
The final 18 national poll average projection was 51.6%.

Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.

• The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.

Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.

• E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.
  
• Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average difference between unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote count margins.
  It is more appropriate to call it Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
  Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0 – 47.0% (average of three measures).

                Unadjusted Exit Poll             Recorded Vote Count
         EV     Kerry  Bush   Margin KEV     Kerry  Bush   Margin KEV          WPE/WPD
  WtdAv TOTAL   51.95  47.05  4.91   337     48.27  50.73  (2.46) 251           7.37 %

The state exit poll WPD:

• exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush
• exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.
  
• was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN).
  
• was less than 2% in just 1 Democratic state (OR), the only state which votes 100% by paper ballot.

The 1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by 48 – 51%.

• All FINAL National Exit Polls are 'forced' to match the Recorded Vote.
  
• The 'forcing' of the 2004 Exit Poll numbers resulted in IMPOSSIBLE demographics.
  
  
  State and national Pre-election and Exit Polls were wrong, or the Recorded Vote was fraudulent.

2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls

• The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
  
• The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs — and the unadjusted exit polls.

The Election Calculator Model determined that Kerry won a 67–57 million landslide, 53.2 - 45.4%.
Simple arithmetic shows that approximately 5.4m votes (8.0%) were switched from Kerry to Bush.
In most states, votes cast exceeded votes recorded — the net uncounted vote.
In Florida, Ohio and other states, votes recorded exceeded votes cast — the net padded vote.

2004 Calculated True Vote
                              12:22am NEP vote share
  
2000  Turnout  Voted    Mix     Kerry   Bush   Other
                                                 
DNV       -     25.6   20.4%     57%     41%     2%
Gore      95%   49.7   39.5%     91%      8%     1%
Bush      95%   46.6   37.1%     10%     90%     0%
Other     95%    3.8    3.0%     64%     17%    19%
  
Total   100.1  125.7    100%    53.2%   45.4%   1.4%
Votes cast             125.7    66.9    57.1    1.7
  
Recorded Vote (actual) 122.3    59.0    62.0    1.2
                                48.3%   50.7%   1.0%
Deviation from True Vote        -4.9%   +5.3%  -0.4%
  
Unadjusted Exit Poll            51.9%   47.1%   1.0%
Deviation from True Vote        -1.3%   +1.7%  -0.4%

 

Other links:
2004 Election Model Summary, Polling Analysis, National & State Model tables
Confirmation of A Kerry Landslide
Election Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

HAVA Look:  A Simple, Verifiable, Open Source, Paper Ballot Vote-Recording & Counting System

Excel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-2004
2004 Interactive Simulation Model
A Polling Simulation Model
2000-2004 County Vote Database

[Kurovski]

1. First rule of election theft: "make" the numbers close.

K&R

[tiptoe]

2. Additional info, re calculation of probabilities:

Obama’s projected base case (60% UVA) vote share is V=53.52%. Assuming a 2.0% polling MoE, his popular vote win probability is 99.97%:
99.97% = NORMDIST (.5352, .50, .02/1.96, true). Assuming a 3.0% MoE, the probability is 98.94%.

The National Model calculates the moving average projection based on the latest 5 national polls. The base case 60% UVA scenario is assumed. The normal distribution function calculates win probabilities using the average 5-poll average MoE. The latest 5 national polls have an average 2.70% MoE. Based on the 51.88% moving average projection, there is a 91.38% probability that Obama will win the popular vote:
91.38% = NORMDIST (.5188, .50, .027/1.96, true)

The win probability in each state is also calculated by the normal distribution applied to the projection. A 4% poll margin of error is assumed. Obama leads McCain in Florida by 49-47%. Based on his 51.4% projected share, there is a 75.4% probability that he will win the state:
75.4% = NORMDIST (.514, .50, .04/1.96, true)