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Primaries: Once again serious vote/exit poll discrepancies listed by state

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Stevepol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-13-08 09:31 AM
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Primaries: Once again serious vote/exit poll discrepancies listed by state


Election Archive has analyzed the exit poll and vote data from the states where voting is used and the following site presents the results of the analysis in tabular form.

http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/exit-polls/SuperTuesday2008/SuperTuesday2008DemPrimary.pdf

One of the results of the study and analysis is perhaps mildly surprising. There are also discrepancies in the Republican results favoring McCain. Here's what the study has to say:

Are Super Tuesday Republican Presidential Primary Results Consistent with Vote Miscount?
Yes! The CNN exit polls, downloaded just after polling locations closed in each state, show that
McCain outperformed Romney more than the polls predicted in at least five states, Alabama,
Arizona, California, Massachusetts, and New York – beyond the poll margin of error. In Georgia,
Missouri, and California the original exit poll margin predicted a close race that either McCain or
Romney might win. The results were particularly surprising in Massachusetts where the chance was
less than one in 118 that McCain would outperform the exit poll results so much due to random
chance; and in New York where the chance was less than one in 160 that Romney would underperform
the exit poll results so much due to random chance. It is interesting to note that Connecticut, which has the largest amount of post-election manual audits of any U.S. state, also has the lowest discrepancy, 0.5%, between its exit poll and election results.


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Birthmark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-13-08 09:34 AM
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1. Ah, I wouldn't worry.
Probably just some evil plot.
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Bonn1997 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-16-08 06:14 PM
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2. So the rigging always favors the most electable Repub and Least electable Dem?
Edited on Sat Feb-16-08 06:17 PM by Bonn1997
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