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some exit polling from the night of the election ...not re-written to match the results yet.

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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:08 PM
Original message
some exit polling from the night of the election ...not re-written to match the results yet.
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/usa/2008/01/exit_polls_obam...
8:01 pm
Obama 39%
Clinton 34%
Edwards 18%

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/01/exit-poll-...
8:10pm
Sen. Barack Obama: 39%.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton: 38%.



proof the networks are editing their results....
9:08 PM Exit poll has been reweighted and combined with town-by-town returns from sources suggest Senator Clinton may very well win by two points. - JOHN McINTYRE


I'll post more as I find them...

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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:11 PM
Response to Original message
1. more....
NH-Pres (D)
Jan 8 Suffolk Univ.Obama 39%, Clinton 34%, Edwards 15% ..

Jan 8 RasmussenObama 37%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 19% ...NH-Pres (R)

Jan 8 ZogbyObama 42%, Clinton 29%, Edwards 17% ...NH-Pres (R)
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Birthmark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:12 PM
Response to Original message
2. It's a HUGH conspiracy! I'm series!
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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:30 PM
Response to Reply #2
11. no just anti transparent and verifiable elections for everyone
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5532

BLOGGED BY Brad Friedman ON 1/9/2008 4:35PM

Tribune Media: MSM Failed to Note 'Hackable Diebold Red Flags' in New Hampshire Primary Results

Syndicated Columnist Robert Koehler Writes for Tomorrow's Papers: 'Possibility of Tainted Results, a Prospect Most of Media Can't Bear'

Notes Problems With NH's Diebold Machines 'Remain Unsolved'...

Syndicated Tribune Media Services columnist Bob Koehler bumps up our serious concerns about last night's wholly untransparent, and still-uncounted (by anything but a hackable Diebold computer, and a company with a questionable past, to say the least) New Hampshire Primary election results, from "blogger conspiracy theory" to mainstream media concern.
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Birthmark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. We're screwn!
Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 10:29 PM by Birthmark
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Muddy Waters Guitar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 06:17 AM
Response to Reply #11
18. Yes, this is deadly serious business
In a democracy, there has to be reliability in the vote tallies, otherwise the whole concept of a popular franchise is useless-- it can be subverted by vested interests with access to the tallying mechanisms. And this often leads to violence, as we're witnessing in Kenya today. There has to be transparency of the process, and there must therefore be a paper trail and an ability to audit the results from the voting machines.
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dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:12 PM
Response to Original message
3. and they are clearly within the MOE
Heck, the second one approaches total accuracy. That is why it took so long to call the race.
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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. but only in the machine counted areas. The hand counted ballots match the polling
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. The hand counted areas are small and rural.
This has been gone over dozens of times. Hillary's support was mainly from the southeastern part of New Hampshire which has machine counts, but that area was supposed to go for her anyway.
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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:29 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. so they only poll and exit poll correctly in rural areas?
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5532

BLOGGED BY Brad Friedman ON 1/9/2008 4:35PM

Tribune Media: MSM Failed to Note 'Hackable Diebold Red Flags' in New Hampshire Primary Results

Syndicated Columnist Robert Koehler Writes for Tomorrow's Papers: 'Possibility of Tainted Results, a Prospect Most of Media Can't Bear'

Notes Problems With NH's Diebold Machines 'Remain Unsolved'...

Syndicated Tribune Media Services columnist Bob Koehler bumps up our serious concerns about last night's wholly untransparent, and still-uncounted (by anything but a hackable Diebold computer, and a company with a questionable past, to say the least) New Hampshire Primary election results, from "blogger conspiracy theory" to mainstream media concern.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:33 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. I remember the CNN exit polls right after the polls closed.
They were effectively tied and that's why the media wouldn't call it. I remember I was trying to find out a winner before them. Couldn't do it. Hillary's areas, Manchester included, closed later and the data thus came in later.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 06:22 AM
Response to Reply #14
19. No, don't confuse them with facts, the DLC "fantasy machine" is remaking history.
Wait! There's Tattoo exclaiming, "the plane! the plane!" as the camera pans a beautifully groomed and tanned HRC sitting in The Oval Office. :crazy:
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Muddy Waters Guitar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. Hardly the first time
The DLC is aligned with Republican neocons-- pro-big business and pro-war. Little surprise that high evidence of vote fraud would emerge among both.
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mhatrw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #14
22. The last polls closed at 8:00 EST. But in most NH communities the polls
actually closed at 7:00 EST. So "right after" the polls closed a decent percentage of actual machine counted returns were already available. CNN's initial exit polling data were adjusted to match these returns.

http://www.airamerica.com/maddow/node/3092

7:21 PM The Clinton campaign says that it doesn't expect a victory tonight and the only question now is the size of the loss. How things have changed in the last month...

7:29 PM With 6% of precincts reporting the Dem numbers are: Obama, 36%; Clinton 36%; Edwards, 17%, Richardson, 5%; Kucinch, 2%

7:42 PM With 8% of precincts reporting here are the Dem numbers: Clinton, 38%; Obama, 36%; Edwards, 17%; Richardson, 4%; Kucinich, 2%

8:04 PM With 11% of precincts reporting here are the Dem numbers: Clinton, 38%; Obama, 36%; Edwards, 17%; Richardson, 4%

8:26 PM With 14% of precincts reporting here are the Dem numbers: Clinton, 40%; Obama, 36%; Edwards, 17%; Richardson, 4%; Kucinich, 2%

9:18 PM With 39% of precincts reportering here are the Dem numbers: Clinton, 39%; Obama 36%; Edwards, 17%; Richardson, 4%; Kucinich, 2%

9:33 PM Interesting fact from exit polling: of the almost 40% of voters who say they made their decisions in the last 3 days, 38% voted for Hillary and 38% voted for Obama. What does that say about Obama's Iowa bounce? What does it say about Hillary's teary moment?
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Muddy Waters Guitar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 06:49 AM
Response to Reply #8
20. Not necessarily
The hand-counting system was more common in rural areas but was used in some of the bigger townships and conurbations as well. Not clear there really was much of a difference in the hand-counted vs. machine-counted regions.
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K Gardner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:16 PM
Response to Original message
5. Learned a new word today: Mitofsky self-modifying polls.
Still have no clue what it means. Moreover, I can't figure out what's wrong with paper and pencil.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:18 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. thats a new one...what the hell are those?
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K Gardner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Go to the link in my post.. its over in GD here on DU.
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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #7
13. cool thanks!
nice read here

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5532

BLOGGED BY Brad Friedman ON 1/9/2008 4:35PM

Tribune Media: MSM Failed to Note 'Hackable Diebold Red Flags' in New Hampshire Primary Results

Syndicated Columnist Robert Koehler Writes for Tomorrow's Papers: 'Possibility of Tainted Results, a Prospect Most of Media Can't Bear'

Notes Problems With NH's Diebold Machines 'Remain Unsolved'...

Syndicated Tribune Media Services columnist Bob Koehler bumps up our serious concerns about last night's wholly untransparent, and still-uncounted (by anything but a hackable Diebold computer, and a company with a questionable past, to say the least) New Hampshire Primary election results, from "blogger conspiracy theory" to mainstream media concern.
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LittleBlue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:30 PM
Response to Original message
10. What is that second number? Counted by hand?
I'm not aware of any counting by hand so far. Link please?
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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. all ballots in NH are paper and they are counted in 2 ways
1. by hand
2. by diebold machine



http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5532

BLOGGED BY Brad Friedman ON 1/9/2008 4:35PM

Tribune Media: MSM Failed to Note 'Hackable Diebold Red Flags' in New Hampshire Primary Results

Syndicated Columnist Robert Koehler Writes for Tomorrow's Papers: 'Possibility of Tainted Results, a Prospect Most of Media Can't Bear'

Notes Problems With NH's Diebold Machines 'Remain Unsolved'...

Syndicated Tribune Media Services columnist Bob Koehler bumps up our serious concerns about last night's wholly untransparent, and still-uncounted (by anything but a hackable Diebold computer, and a company with a questionable past, to say the least) New Hampshire Primary election results, from "blogger conspiracy theory" to mainstream media concern.
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LittleBlue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. That's a blog. There should be reportable, verifiable evidence
that the hand recount does not match the macines. I don't see the statistics used in that chart above.
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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:40 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. heres one place
http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=DEMOCRATS

and

here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

and here

http://presscue.com/node/38034

and then dont forget to read

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5532

BLOGGED BY Brad Friedman ON 1/9/2008 4:35PM

Tribune Media: MSM Failed to Note 'Hackable Diebold Red Flags' in New Hampshire Primary Results

Syndicated Columnist Robert Koehler Writes for Tomorrow's Papers: 'Possibility of Tainted Results, a Prospect Most of Media Can't Bear'

Notes Problems With NH's Diebold Machines 'Remain Unsolved'...

Syndicated Tribune Media Services columnist Bob Koehler bumps up our serious concerns about last night's wholly untransparent, and still-uncounted (by anything but a hackable Diebold computer, and a company with a questionable past, to say the least) New Hampshire Primary election results, from "blogger conspiracy theory" to mainstream media concern.
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