Help with odd results in Florida

[RuleofLaw]

am not a number person, and I should properly have spent more time on this, but I hope someone can look closer into this:

I was curious about the explanation of Dixie-crats in Florida so I looked at Baker County. http://www.bakercountyfl.org/elections/results.htm

While looking at the website, I was listening to Randi Rhodes when she mentioned that the primaries in Florida are closed, meaning you have to be a registered democrat to vote for a democratic candidate.

So I looked at the primaries (Aug. 31, 2004) for Baker County: http://www.bakercountyfl.org/elections/primary04.htm

Total vote for democrats (4 Candidates): 4370

Total vote for republicans (8 candidates): 1135

Now, compare that result to the Nov. 2 elections

Kerry: 2180
Bush: 7738
Martinez (R): 6815
Castor (D): 2853

By the way, both the primaries and Nov. 2 races for the senate were very ugly in Florida, and very closely fought. Martinez was Bush’s man, and Betty Castor was closely aligned with Kerry. And by the way, All D-candidates were strongly opposed to Bush.

So, is it just me, or does it seem odd, that 4370 people show up to vote in the primaries for a democrat, but only 2853 decides to vote for Betty Castor on Election day, and even less for Kerry?
Or that only 1135 republicans show up for the primaries, but then on Election Day, 6 times as many show up at the polls?

Unless there is a lot of crossover, I am not sure how to explain these results.

But, I do find it interesting that a lot of registered democrats showed up at the primaries, but stayed home on Nov. 2. Or decided to vote for Bush/Martinez.

So, am I to believe, that so called Dixie-crats, who are only registered democrats in name, because they are too lazy to change party affiliation, are not too lazy to vote in the primaries for a democrat, but then decide to stay home on election night?

Like I said, this might be nothing, but I think a closer look at the primaries in the dixie-crat counties might show a more accurate picture of the real number of democrats in FL.

[AmyCrat]

1. Good Catch...

I think it's a good catch. I don't know what it means, and I can't explain it either way, but it's good for us to be looking at all the numbers, and comparing to primaries in these "Dixiecrat" counties is a good idea!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. It is a good question

it'd be better to have the number of primary votes for Castor.

[ArthurDent]

5. Click the link

Castor got just under 2,700 primary votes, about 150 fewer than in the gen election. HTH.

[ArthurDent]

3. Well...

only 2,687 voted for Castor in the primary, so it's not that odd that she got 2,853 in the general election.

If I had to guess, I'd bet that turnout was mostly due to local candidates (board of ed stuff) and not because of the Senate race. A lot of the Dem voters probably cast their Senate vote just because it was there. It's not that they went to the polls for that reason, ya?

I'd think nothing of it.

[DoYouEverWonder]

14. That's bull

Sorry to be rude, but voter turnout for the General Election was much higher than the primaries.

8854 people turned out for the General Election in Baker County.

In the August Primary only 4370 people voted.

There is no way that Castor only picked up another 166 votes.

Besides this voting pattern is way too consistent across the board. Especially in the 'hurricane counties'. The folks that were hit hard by the hurricanes are none too happy with the Bush's right now, despite the fact the media is ignoring them.

[On the Road]

4. Yes, It's Odd

although it's not inconceivable. The Dixiecrats could easily vote in the Democratic primary and yet vote for Bush in the general election.

I was a similar position in the 1992 primaries. I was registered a Republican at that time, and could only vote in the Republican primary. So I did. I changed party registration shortly afterwards. In Florida, I think it's not so much laziness as a lifelong identity as a Democrat, even if they vote Republican most of the time.

On the other hand, it's another anomaly. It may be important in combination with some other

[jsamuel]

6. Hate to be a downer, but Bush wasn't running in the primaries = ...

less reason for a Repub to go to the primaries.

[DoYouEverWonder]

7. I've been looking at those numbers too

I live in North Florida and only in Alachua County do people still register DEM just to vote in the primaries. But that is only because a real Repug doesn't usually stand a chance, getting elected Dog Catcher around here.

The voting patterns in this election just don't make sense. Bush did not get out that much of his base, especially in Alachua County. That base just doesn't hardly exist here.

Here's some pics from the Pro American Rally that the Bush Campaign and the Swift Boat Vets for Truth held on Aug 21, 2004.

Has you see there were many more Kerry supporters, than Bush supporters at an event the Repugs had sponsored.

[TruthOutDawg]

8. Very Interesting

I agree that it is strange. Have you called it to Eloriel's attention?

[RuleofLaw]

11. No

I have only just started to look at it.

Will see if I have more time later.

But I do find it strange that people show up vote in the primaries,but not for the real election. Especially this year, in perhaps the most contested and diversive election ever.

[ROH]

9. Far more presidential votes than senate votes in Florida

Total the votes for all the candidates in the presidential election in Florida.

Then total the votes for all the candidates in the senate election in Florida.

According to the latest figures I have, there were 4.5% more presidential votes than senate votes in Florida.

[Eloriel]

10. You know what we need to do?

We need to fund some polls for some of these areas. I think the DNC or someone ought to pony up and make some phone calls down in FL to these panhandle counties and find out what's REALLY going on.

[mostly_lurking]

12. I lived in Bay County for 15 years...

Bay County is one of the largest counties on the Florida panhandle. I have a lot of friends in the surrounding counties (particularly Franklin and Calhoun).

You are correct in your observations about "Dixiecrats". The reason your argument is flawed, however, is that the registered Democrats turn out in the primaries to vote for "local" candidates (sheriff, mayor, etc.) They will also vote for national candidates they ultimately vote against in the general election (as most go for the Republicans). Since the Republicans are not on the primary ballot, they generally make a choice based upon two factors: 1) who would be the "weaker" opponent to the Republican; or 2) who would be the "lessor" of evils (in their eyes).

Based on my experience from living in Florida (I moved west 4 years ago) I agree with many other posts in this forum -- Florida is not likely to be reversible. The best bet for any challenge would have to be Ohio.

[nashville_brook]

13. thank you for this -- do you have access to

the Baker Co presidential race totals from 1992, 1996 and 2000 to compare to 2004? I keep getting asked this and I haven't found anything. emailed the supervisor of elections, but i doubt my little email will get any response.

[DoYouEverWonder]

15. Here's a link for Baker County election results

http://bakercountyfl.org/elections/results.htm

but they only go back to 2002.

CNN might have the results from previous years?

[T Roosevelt]

17. From the Florida election website

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/

Baker (Pres)

Year Rep Dem Other Total
1996 3684 2273 677 6634
2000 5610 2392 152 8154
2004 7738 2180 37 9955

[nashville_brook]

20. wow, thanks

it helps to see the 1996 numbers b/c i feel like you have to look at 2000 with a grain of salt. it seems like the Dem numbers should at least go up with turnout.

[T Roosevelt]

16. Something very interesting about Florida

1 county Bush had less votes than Martinez
(Miami-Dade, probably explainable because of the Cuban/Hispanic vote)

48 counties Kerry had less votes than Castor

[mostly_lurking]

18. That's actually pretty normal

In my "new" state (Colorado), Bush won by 5 points. However, Salazar (D) beat Coors (R) easily for the open senate seat. When candidates are better known by the voters personality and achievements can often override party affiliation.

[onenote]

19. sadly, this doesn't hold up -- its been that way a long time

As others have suggested, voting in the primaries may be driven by other local races,not the Senate race. And in fact, in the Aug 31 2004 Democratic primary, more votes were cast by Baker County in the primary for "Public Defender" (5165 by my count) than in the Senate primary. Compare http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=8/31/04&DATAMODE=

with http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=8/31/04&DATAMODE=

Also, if you check the 2000 general and primary elections, you see that three Democrats shared 5531 votes in Baker County, but during the General election, the Democrat, Bill Nelson only got 3104 votes in the County (in fact, Nelson alone got more votes in Baker in the primary than he did in the general election). Same thing if you go back to 1994: four Democrats in the primary shared 3268 Baker County votes, but the Democratic nominee in the general election could only get 1185 votes in the County.


Also, for what its worth, during the Democratic Presidential preference vote in Florida (which took place March 9, 2004), only 754 votes were cast in Baker County.

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=3/9/04&DATAMODE=

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[Carl Brennan]

21. WHAAAAAAT!!! The primaries in Florida were closed??????????

I NEEEED to find this out is this true??

[onenote]

22. yes they were -- link

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/online/faq.shtml#Elections_and_Voting

onenote