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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 07:54 PM
Original message
Scoop: 47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00142.htm

47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly


By Jonathan Simon
Introduction by Scoop Co-Editor Alastair Thompson


" In the 12 critical states (CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA) the average discrepancy was a 2.5% red shift (= total movement of 5.0%), nearly twice that in the safe states. "
- Jonathan Simon

SCROLL DOWN JUMP STRAIGHT TO THE NEW DATA


Introduction by Scoop Co-Editor Alastair Thompson

By the time of the close of polls at around 5pm EST on election day the buzz on the world wide web including here at Scoop - was that Kerry had was a shoe in for election 2004. Slate Magazine and the Daily Kos had published the swing state exit polls before the polls had even closed. The news was very good for Kerry supporters.

According to the exit polls Kerry was showing a 1% popular vote margin over Bush. But more importantly he was shown leading by a nose in Florida and a solid 4% in Ohio. Because of the way the Electoral College system works this meant that he had almost certainly won.

The polls have significant sized samples in all states and ask actual voters who they actually voted for and so are traditionally very accurate.

As we now know they weren't very accurate once midnight came and went.

Or were they?

On November 4 (NZT Nov. 3 EST) Scoop published Faun Otter: Vote Fraud - Exit Polls Vs Actuals. This was the first exit poll comparison analysis produced on the web it originated in the Democratic Underground, a forum website, for Democratic Party activism and the clubhouse for a lot of people doing grassroots research work.

Faun Otter's data - <a href=" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_U.S._Election_controv... |already immortalised in the Wikipedia (with a link to Scoop.co.nz)] - showed swing states moving far further on average from their exit poll results than non-swing states after the polls closed. I.E. the actual result for these states was more at variance with the exit polls than it was in other states.

Alarm bells rang at this point because it has always been postulated that looking at exit poll results after a stolen election would be the best way to look for "general" evidence of voting fraud. By general evidence I mean evidence that suggests fraud has occurred not proof that it has.

The reason this is so is that traditionally exit polls have been close to 2% accurate. Yet in the last three elections, 2000, 2002 and 2004 they haven't been. This years poll remarkably is almost precisely a re-run of 2000 with Ohio playing the part of Florida. In Florida in 2000 the exit polls showed Gore winning by 3%. In the middle of the night they were still counting and on this state alone hinged the entire election.

In 2004 just like in 2000 Fox news called Ohio to Bush before the counting had finished.

Because exit polls are such a good research tool for vote fraud analysis an organisation called PollWatch.org was even set up to conduct independent exit polls. By election time their efforts had been subsumed into the efforts of VerifiedVoting.org, a lobby organisation initiated by Stanford University Professor David Dill which signed up thousands of computer scientists and academics to a petition calling for auditable voting machines.

However the activists were caught off guard on election night.

The Official Exit Poll results posted in real time on public websites - have some significant drawbacks. Unbeknownst to their readers CNBC, Fox News and CNN were constantly updating their exit poll databases to fit the final results. That is the statistics were fluid and were updated several times through the evening. By 2am in the morning on Nov 3, If you looked at the exit polls and the final results you would find the matched. For Ohio, for Florida, for everywhere. No story there people. Move on.

But as often seems to happen in these tortured times, something unexpected happened and so we can now tell you something close to the full story.'

The Washington post takes up the story:

Washington Post 11/4/2004:

"... a server at Edison/Mitofsky malfunctioned shortly before 11 p.m. The glitch prevented access to any exit poll results until technicians got a backup system operational at 1:33 a.m. yesterday.

The crash occurred barely minutes before the consortium was to update its exit polling with the results of later interviewing that found Bush with a one-point lead. Instead, journalists were left relying on preliminary exit poll results released at 8:15 p.m., which still showed Kerry ahead by three percentage points.

It was only after the polls had closed in most states and the vote count was well underway in the East that it became clear that Bush was in a stronger position in several key battlegrounds, including Ohio, than early exit polls suggested."


By 2am on Nov. 3 in the morning the publicly available exit poll results on the network news sites all changed. Activists still had the original results posted in blogs but they were no real comparison.

Which is why the following data study by Jonathan Simon of <a href=http://verifiedvoting.org > verifiedvoting.org] is so remarkable.

As it turns out this study was only possible because of the computer crash reported by the Washington Post. While the boffins fiddled with their computers Simon with a considerable degree of foresight - downloaded as much data as he could off the publicly available sites.

The revision number of this data is not known and the original data from Edison - is now being sought by Scoop.co.nz in order to repeat this study with the full 4pm and 8pm data runs.

I conclude this introduction with some remarks from Chuck, who was commenting on Simon's results.

"Warren Mitofsky meanwhile says that he knew in the afternoon that his exit polls were off in nine states, but this does not sit well with me (I'd need to know how he would know at that point and, assuming he knew, why he would go ahead and promulgate them without caveat?).

Way too much work went into getting the exit polls right this time for me to just accept that they can't do as well as they were doing routinely in the 80s and 90s. It is not, like stained glass, a lost art."


Way too much indeed.

- Alastair Thompson Scoop Co Editor Thursday, 11 November 2004

<a name=a>
*** ##### ****


To Those Who Seek Information As A Basis For Action Regarding Bush's "Victory":


By Jonathan Simon
Thursday, 11 November 2004


I examined the discrepancies between the actual vote tabulations as reported and the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll results in 47 states, incl. D.C. (in 4 statesNew Jersey, New York, North Carolina,VirginiaI did not have early exit poll results available, and the later results had already been amended to reflect input of actual vote totals, which rendered them corrupt as exit polls and useless for the purpose of checking the veracity of actual vote totals).

I noticed an overall red shift (to Bush) across the spectrum of states, but the shift was significantly nonuniform.

Having divided the 47 states examined into two groups, 35 noncritical states and 12 critical or suspect states (Nebraska included because of ES&S control and prior anomalies even though not a battleground state).

I calculated that the average discrepancy in the 35 safe states was a +1.4% red shift, that is the average of the vote totals in each state was 1.4% more favorable to Bush than what the exit polls predicted (= total movement of 2.8%).

In the 12 critical states (CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA) the average discrepancy was a 2.5% red shift (= total movement of 5.0%), nearly twice that in the safe states. This in spite of the fact that the average sample size in the critical states was nearly twice that in the noncritical states and should have produced significantly more accurate results.

Further, assuming a 3% margin of error and 95% confidence interval for each state poll (the standard Mitofksy protocol, but a conservative assumption here, since the sample sizes were significantly increased in critical states), the red shift exceeded the margin of error in 4 of the 12 critical states (and equalled it in a fifth).

The chance of this occurring in 4 of the 12 states in the absence of "mistabulation" can be computed using a simple probability equation and is approximately 0.002 or one in five-hundred. It's a relatively crude analysis and better analysis would have to wait on more complete data, but basically what it's telling us is that we can say with 99.8% certainty that "mistabulation" played some significant role in this election.

FOR FULL DATA SEE
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00142.htm#...


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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:52 PM
Response to Original message
1. IF YOU THINK IMPT... PLEASE NOMINATE THIS THREAD FOR FP
Edited on Wed Nov-10-04 11:58 PM by althecat
It is a dupe of the other post without my grumble... and is very impt.. especially in the wake of David Dill coming out and asking for the data on Olberman.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Plus Skinner or Mods.. if you read this... I would be HONOURED if you would lift the full article and run it as one of your articles linked on the homepage.... It is afterall a product of DU...inside and out...

Ditto William Rivers Pitt... and Truthout...

In fact anyone with a website!!!

:)
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:55 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. This article is Copyright Free.. ANTI(C)OPYRIGHT
Please copy it post it, print it, whatever and link back to the original and give credit. I am sure that is what Jonathan will want.... BTW the comments attributed to "Chuck" in my intro are actually from him...

al
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 03:40 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Right an idea to keep this thread alive and people thinking
I really don't think you lot have absorbed what this data is saying yet.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 05:45 AM
Response to Reply #1
18. Wrong place
Edited on Thu Nov-11-04 05:46 AM by althecat
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 12:04 AM
Response to Original message
3. And Please Post... MAINSTREAM MEDIA MONITORING LINKS HERE
Edited on Thu Nov-11-04 12:05 AM by althecat
The Backlash Cometh - Cowardly Media Flushed Out Of Their Bunker

IN THE THREAD LINKED HERE
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

I have compiled a list of DU threads on E-Vote Fraud stories in the mainstream media so far.

The good news - we have flushed the cowards out of their holes... and Keith Olberman HUGELY deserves the credit for this.

The bad news - now we have the spinsters on our case.... not only will they be going after the media (which will develop a herd mentality on this most probably) but they will also be going after the witnesesses. See Skinner's thread on Cuyoohooga (sp) county.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 01:00 AM
Response to Original message
4. Shameless self kick.... please others keep this data on the board
I am off to an armistice day concert.

WHAT A DAY!!!!
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masshole1979 Donating Member (172 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 04:01 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. Why aren't even our friends talking about this...
...why didn't Olbermann (sp?) or any of the other mainstream media leakers discuss this, which was pretty obvious even before a formal analysis? After all, it's the bedrock of our case: the exit poll numbers could not be glitches; the patterns are too clear. Either the exit polls were fraudulent or the ballot tallies were, but not both--and the exit polls had a lot more going for them in terms of reliability.

Yet even The Nation keeps talking about Ganahahaha's (sp) 4000 extra votes and the Panhandle Dixicrats who voted for the Repbicans.
WTF??
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 03:51 AM
Response to Original message
6. The Exit Poll Red Shift Charts - Critical States
Edited on Thu Nov-11-04 03:52 AM by althecat
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 03:53 AM
Response to Original message
7. The Exit Poll Red Shift Charts - Non Critical States

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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 03:56 AM
Response to Original message
8. The Exit Poll Red Shift Charts - The DATA Comma delimited
CRITICAL STATES 12
State,BUSH,KERRY,#Resp,Time,Red Shift,
Colorado,49.9,48.1,2515,12:24AM,2.60%,
Florida,49.8,49.7,2846,12:21,2.5,
*Florida,51.4,47.6,2862,1:01,0.6,
Michigan,46.5,51.5,2452,12:21,1,
Minnesota,44.5,53.5,2178,12:23,3,
Nebraska,62.5,36,785,12:22,4.3,
Nevada,47.9,49.2,2116,12:23,2.2,
New Hamp.,44.1,54.9,1849,12:24,21:36,
New Mex.,47.5,50.1,1951,12:24,19:12,
Ohio,47.9,52.1,1963,7:32PM,3.1,
*Ohio,50.9,48.6,2020,1:41AM,0.3,
Penn,45.4,54.1,1930,12:21,3.4,
Wisconsin,48.8,49.2,2223,12:21,(-)0.3,
Iowa,48.4,49.7,2502,12:23,2,

NON CRITICAL STATES 35
State,BUSH,KERRY,#Resp,Time,Red Shift
Alabama,58.1,40.5,730,12:17AM,4.2
Alaska,57.8,38.8,910,01:00AM,4
Arizona,52.8,46.7,1859,12:19,2.5
Arkansas,52.9,46.1,1402,12:22,1.1
Calif,46.6,54.6,1919,12:23,(-)1.5
CT,40.9,57.7,872,12:22,3.4
(CT,44.4,54.7,872,12:53),0.2
DC,8.2,89.8,795,12:22,0.3
Delaware,40.7,57.3,770,12:22,4.8
Georgia,56.6,42.9,1536,12:22,2.2
Hawaii,46.7,53.3,499,12:22,(-)1.2
Idaho,65.7,32.9,559,12:22,2.6
Illinois,42.4,56.6,1392,12:23,1.6
Indiana,58.4,40.6,926,12:22,1.6
Kansas,64.5,34.1,654,12:22,(-)2.7
Kentucky,58.4,40.2,1034,12:22,0.9
Louisiana,54.7,43.9,1669,12:21,2.1
Maine,44.3,53.8,1968,12:22,0.8
Maryland,42.3,56.2,1000,12:22,0.5
Mass,32.9,65.2,889,12:22,3.7
Miss,56.5,43,798,12:22,3.3
Missouri,52,47,2158,12:21,1.5
Montana,58,37.5,640,12:22,(-)0.3
ND,64.4,32.6,649,12:22,(-)2.4
OK,65,34.6,1539,12:23,0.8
Oregon,47.9,50.3,1064,12:22,(-)1.3
RI,34.9,62.7,809,12:22,3.4
SC,53.4,45.1,1735,12:24,4.4
SD,61,36.5,1495,12:24,(-)1.8
Tenn,58,40.6,1774,12:23,(-)1.7
Texas,62.2,36.3,1671,12:22,(-)2.0
Utah,68.1,29.1,798,12:22,2.5
Vermont,33.3,63.7,685,12:22,5.2
Wash,44,54.1,2123,12:38,1.6
WV,54,44.5,1722,12:24,1.8
Wyoming,65.5,30.9,684,12:22,2.7

State,BUSH,KERRY,#Resp,Time,Red Shift
NJ,46.2,52.8,1520,12:50,(-)0.2
NY,40.9,58.2,1452,12:52,(-)0.4
NC,56.5,42.7,2167,12:48,(-)0.4
Virginia,54.1,45.4,1431,12:56,(-)0.4
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 03:57 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Note you should be able to save the above as a .csv text file...
and then open inside excel.. this will allow you do do things like this.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 04:27 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. Graph Of Red Shift Over 43 States....
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 04:36 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Commentary On The Above Graph... What It Means
The key thing that is wrong with this graph is that it is not balanced.

QUOTING FAUN OTTER Here

There is a bit of math involved but don't worry, I taught market research at a University - a place where Republicans fear to tread, according to the medias own polls! The Bush people argue that the exit polls are skewed by the methodology employed. It is odd that they dont say what that error producing part of the methodology might be. A skew means a systematic error is introduced by the test protocol and causes a consistent shift in one direction.

IF this was true, then all the exit polls would show the same sort of shift from 'actual' results.


Faun will correct me if I am wrong... But if this were the case then the red shift should have occurred over all the states. What we have is closer to his second option.

The GOP offer an alternative argument that the exit polls are not large enough samples and therefore the results are off by a large random error.

IF this was true, then the exit polls should scatter on either side of the actual result, especially if the final result is close to 50/50.


If this was true then the above image should be symmetrical. Just as many negative red shifts as positive red shifts.

As you can see that is not what we see. The vast majority of the big red shifts are in favour of the GOP including nearly all of those that are outside the margin of error.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 04:45 AM
Response to Reply #9
14. Graph Of Red Shift In The 12 Critical (Swing) States
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 04:51 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. Commentary On The Above Graph... What It Means
Again the key thing that is wrong with this graph is that it is not balanced - but now the effect is infinitely more obvious.

QUOTING FAUN OTTER Here

The Bush people argue that the exit polls are skewed by the methodology employed. It is odd that they dont say what that error producing part of the methodology might be. A skew means a systematic error is introduced by the test protocol and causes a consistent shift in one direction.

IF this was true, then all the exit polls would show the same sort of shift from 'actual' results.


As you can see in this case they do... to a point.... but only in the swing states which is the odd thing.

The GOP offer an alternative argument that the exit polls are not large enough samples and therefore the results are off by a large random error.

IF this was true, then the exit polls should scatter on either side of the actual result, especially if the final result is close to 50/50.


Which they don't. They almost all favour the GOP. Most of them outside of the margin of error.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 04:53 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. Important Notes On The Critical States Data - From Jonathan Simon
From right at the bottom of his analysis
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00142.htm#...

Important Points To Note: The average sample size for the critical states is 2109, for the noncritical states 1192, roughly half the size. All else being equal, higher sample size correlates with smaller margin of error, greater accuracy. And yet: the average Red Shift in the noncritical states is 1.4%, but in the critical states it is 2.5%.

Why? Hard evidence must be found to account for this egregious statistical pattern and to prove the actual fraud. This preliminary analysis is fairly crude, and there are probably other, more telling ways to slice and dice the data. Also, note that there were three exit poll "sweeps" which led to updates around 4 pm, 8 pm, 12 midnight, following which the "exit polls" were really contaminated by tabulated data and of no use at all as a check mechanism.

I caught mostly the third sweep here (c. 12:20 am); my guess is the second sweep would show even more dramatic discrepancies. While the first sweep has come under skeptical attack for having a too great female (pro-Kerry) weighting (the figure I heard was 58%/42% female), it is at least plausible to me that morning/daytime voters would be disproportionately female because of work schedules, so it may well be just one of the specious rationalizations behind a very determined coverup (we just don't know).


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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #14
20. kick
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melwoods Donating Member (58 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 04:42 AM
Response to Original message
13. kick
:)
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 07:28 PM
Response to Reply #13
24. Hi melwoods!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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Sideways Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 05:00 AM
Response to Original message
17. Bump
Wow! My head is thumping. This should be broken up into a couple threads IMHO.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 05:51 AM
Response to Original message
19. Some Final Comments From ALTHECAT On An VERY Eventfull Day
Much of the discussion around here today has been doing my head in. So as I listened to Faure's requiem for Armistice Day at St John's Church in Wellington New Zealand this evening I composed the following.... in the end it has turned out a bit longer than I expected. It is sort of a letter to America.

** ##### **


Dear America,

What were you thinking?????

Democracy is founded on a form of contract.

We the people agree to to obey the laws properly promulgated under a democratically elected government. In essence we agree to go along with what the MAJORITY of our fellow citizens decide.

In turn the government undertakes to ensure that the government is indeed elected by a MAJORITY of the people.

It is that simple.

Today however we have a very serious problem in America. A sizeable and growing portion of the public do not believe that the second part of the contract has been honoured.

They do so because:

1. It has been conclusively shown that the machines they are voting on are tamperable with. (See Avi Rubin, Raba etc.)

2. It has been conclusively shown that the counting machines are even more easily tamperable with. (See Bev Harris - Inside Diebold's GEMS
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0307/S00065.htm
Bev Harris - Inside Sequoia's Vote Counting Program
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0404/S00024.htm )

3. It has been shown that not only are they tamperable with but that in the case of Volusia County in Florida 2000 they have in fact been tampered with in an unexplained and dramatic fashion upsetting an election in progress. (See Bev Harris/Althecat - Diebold Memos Disclose Florida 2000 E-Voting Fraudhttp://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0310/S00211.htm )

4. It has been shown (again by Bev Harris) that not only were they tamperable in 2000 and 2002. But that nothing has been done to fix the problems and that the official certifiers of these technologies are incompetent at best. (See Bev Harris - Bev Harris: E-Vote Lab Omitted Tamperability Test
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00112.htm )

5. It is self evident that the supposed elected guardians of the processes - the SoSes - have been playing a vicious and partisan game in the most important swing states - I.E. Katherine Harris 2000 and Ken Blackwell 2004. (Greg Palast - The Best Democracy Money Can Buy.)

6. It is a fact that Two Voting Companies & Two Brothers
Will Count 80% of U.S. Election - Using BOTH Scanners & Touchscreens
(See Lynn Landes - http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0404/S00233.htm )

and finally

7. It is self evident that the 2004 election has produced completely startling and unexpected outcomes in a huge number of places.

NOW MOST PEOPLE DO NOT KNOW THESE THINGS BUT IF THEY DID THEY WOULD BE HORRIFIED... IMPORTANTLY NONE OF THE ABOVE HAS BEEN IN ANY WAY DEBUNKED EITHER BY THE INDUSTRY OR BY OTHER MEDIA. IF ANYTHING THIS DESCRIPTION OF THE STATE OF THE US ELECTION SYSTEM UNDERSTATES THE DEGREE OF CONCERN FELT BY MANY AROUND HERE.

And so this ever growing minority of the American Public seek to try to enforce their side of the democratic bargain. And what do they find.

They find:

1. A media that is starting to admit some of the above but which is unwilling - seemingly purely on the basis of intuition - to even consider that an election could be stolen via computers.

2. A Candidate and a Democratic Party who, inspite of the fact that they have $45 million and thousands of lawyers at their disposal is not willing to do the work to find out whether anything is untoward.

** ##### **


And so these people - US - start to do some digging of their own. And the first place they look is the EXIT Poll results. They do so for the most obvious of reasons. And this point has been made by numerous posters all day here on DU.

THE EXIT POLLS ARE THE ELECTION THEIFS MOST IMPORTANT TOOL.

The exit polls are needed because otherwise - as an election theif - you do not know how many votes to steal.

And then looking at these poll results what do they find.

1. An attempt by the makers of the poll to hide the data from them - to disguise it.
2. Clear and apparent anomalies in the data.
3. Doing some research we find that anomalies have appeared for three elections in a row. VNS got Florida wrong in 2000. In 2002 VNS hid the data from view altogether claiming it was corrupted. And now in 2004 we find clear evidence of an unexplained RED SHIFT.

** ##### **


And so we make plans to dig deeper.

** ##### **


Speaking for myself now I can clearly say that I am not remotely intimidated by today's media onslaught.

In fact I am delighted by it - Peter Jennings, Ann Coulter and all.

This shillish corporate media that for years has refused to report that this issue even existed - even though it was being reported to them in lurid detail by numerous researchers and computer boffins - has today been forced to bring its narrowminded prejudice into public view.

They are doing so not because they want to. But because they can feel a growing force of public opinion that they will ignore at their peril.

In opening the door publicly to VOTE FRAUD 2004 they have opened up a pandora's box that they will never be able to close.

Doubt has now been seeded over the validity of this election. A question of imponderable importance has been asked and the Media must now answer it.

So far as I am concerned it is now necessary for the legislatures of every state implicated in this affair to hold an inquiry into this election i.e. a recount, whether asked or not - not in order to establish and prosecute fraud, but simply in order to restore confidence in the electoral system.

The contract of Democracy between people and government in the United States is broken. It needs to be restored to full health.

John Kerry's advisors are fools if he does not see the enormous political advantages that such an enterprise can bring him.

Afterall what are we asking... simply that all the votes are counted. Who can disagree with that.

And this needs to happen now - in the full glare of all the media - in front of the world.

How can America bring freedom and democracy to the world if its own is crumbling and failing?

I for one will be doing everything that I can to inform people of this issue. And with our without Kerry we will find the truth. If we do it the hard way it will just take a great deal longer.

Over and out

Al
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flintdem Donating Member (66 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 02:22 PM
Response to Original message
21. Analysis Fails to find Fraud?
Here is a link to an analysis from Caltech and MIT examining vote differences between paper and electronic voting machines:

http://vote.caltech.edu/Reports/VotingMachines3.pdf

It's not what I want to here but this analysis looks pretty solid...
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. This is very interesting flintdem
I haven't read it in detail. But it looks kinda thorough and should be picked through.

So did you grow up with Michael Moore?

al
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saddemocrat Donating Member (294 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. interesting...
I guess I do need to take a breather and see where things stand tomorrow..

kris
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ignatzmouse Donating Member (327 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:59 AM
Response to Reply #21
34. Voting Technology Project sees Red and Likes It
Their analysis is flawed. It lumps together optical scan with paper ballots. Hand counted paper ballots are an entirely different category. On their "paper ballot" graph, NY is a lever state included as a measure of zero paper ballots. But, the wild forays into Bush-happy approval of Oklahoma and Rhode Island are due to ES&S Optical Scan ballots NOT hand counted paper ballots. They should not be confused.

It is also misleading to state that the polls were off by 1.3% as it assumes a nationwide average rather than focusing on the number of states where the exit polls were considerably off (using the non-fudged data). By lumping everything together, it obscures the real picture where states' electoral votes were either going blue or red.

There is also a thread at Daily Kos on CalTech/MIT's Voting Technology Project here: http://dailykos.com/story/2004/11/14/03617/399 that has further insights into the group.
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DARE to HOPE Donating Member (552 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #21
37. Caltech is Bush territory...
I would not trust a thing they would say...
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-13-04 01:46 AM
Response to Original message
25. Someone just emailed me this interesting observation
While looking at this article
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00142.htm

linked to on
Buzzflash, I did some simple math. the data shows and Ohio exit poll at
7:32 PM with 47.9% Bush and 52.1% Kerry. Assuming that "#Resp" is short
for "number of respondents" that means 940 had voted for Bush and 1023 for
Kerry. Then there is the 1:41 AM entry with Bush 50.9% and Kerry 48.6% of
2020 respindents which works out to 1028 for Bush and 981 for Kerry. 42
FEWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NUMBER!! Someone should explain this.

Cheers!

Jerry

****

It does seem a little odd.
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seaclyr Donating Member (182 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 09:09 PM
Response to Reply #25
38. Exit polls were updated (i.e. changed to match vote counts) at 1:36 am
Apparently the final exit poll updates were at 1:36 am, although they weren't really updates, just a change of numbers to match the vote counts. So, yes the Ohio numbers probably were inconsistent with earlier exit polls as were the national numbers as others have pointed out (http://globalresearch.ca/articles/KEE411A.html ) because the final numbers aren't based on "real" exit poll data. However, I believe this has been done in other elections after polls close, so it in itself doesn't have to be sinister. Nevertheless, when presented this way, it is deceptive: it can appear to give a measure of authenticity to the vote count that is totally unwarranted.
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illuminaughty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-13-04 05:34 AM
Response to Original message
26. keep it kicked
These charts are too important.
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spooky3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 09:29 PM
Response to Original message
27. would have really liked to see the uncorrupted NC and VA data.
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illuminaughty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 07:39 AM
Response to Original message
28. kicking it again for Monday morning news
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truehawk Donating Member (797 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 04:41 PM
Response to Original message
29. kick
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truehawk Donating Member (797 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 04:41 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. kick
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Cronus Protagonist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 01:47 AM
Response to Original message
31. I can EASILY explain the RED SHIFT as a perfectly ORDINARY event
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 01:48 AM by Cronus Protagonist
The universe is expanding.

:kick:

Show your support for the president, wear a FUCK BUSH button!

http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

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pacalo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 01:56 AM
Response to Original message
32. Kick!
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sharman Donating Member (143 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:46 AM
Response to Original message
33. Real 2000 exit poll was not wrong
When the 2000 exit polls called Florida for Gore very early, it was due to incorrect data fed into the computer, human error. The error was caught and corrected early. (Also, some of the discrepancy is accounted for by the unusually high spoilage and error rate. A net 50,000 Gore votes lost due to overvote (source: WasPost analysis)and over 6,000 lost to Buchanan on the butterfly ballot.

So, the 2000 exit polls were in fact as accurate and reliable as in other years, as far as the science goes.
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:24 AM
Response to Original message
35. kick.
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Andromeda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 04:48 AM
Response to Original message
36. Kick
:kick:
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