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(CrossPost to ERD) THE UNANSWERED QUESTION: WHO REALLY WON IN 2004?

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-14-05 11:09 PM
Original message
(CrossPost to ERD) THE UNANSWERED QUESTION: WHO REALLY WON IN 2004?
For Immediate Release: 07/14/2005
Contact: See this annotated thread. Its all in the numbers:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE UNANSWERED QUESTION: WHO REALLY WON IN 2004?

According to the vote tabulators, in the 2004 presidential election George W. Bush won a stunning victory that defied all odds, particularly those applied by unbiased statisticians. He won despite trailing in most state and national polls. He won despite an approval rating of less than 50%, usually the death knell for an incumbent presidential candidate. He won despite trailing in the three National Exit Polls three timelines from 4pm to 12:22 am (13047 respondents) by a steady 48%-51%, miraculously winning the final exit poll (with only 613 additional respondents, totaling 13,660). This poll was weighted (altered) to meet the reported election result on the assumption that the reported result was accurate -- quite an assumption. The final poll showed a stunning reversal of the Kerry 51%-48% poll margin, which had been measured consistently all day by the same polling group: major news/networks and polling firm Edison-Mitofsky.

The analysis of exit polls and documented fraud in this election began on the Internet. A number of academics posted detailed work showing the near-impossible odds of Bush overcoming deficits in the state exit polls and the National Exit Polls. Much of this analysis comes from TruthIsAll (TIA), a poster on DemocraticUnderground.Com. TIA has a background and several degrees in applied mathematics. Using various elements of the national and state exit polls and other data sources, he produces results that are thorough, detailed, sober and compelling. He shows ALL data and calculations, while encouraging others to check his math. Only once did he make a minor math error, after asking DUers to check his calculation of probability that at least 16 states would deviate beyond their exit poll margin of error and go for Bush. The answer turned out to be one in 19 trillion! The debates on DemocraticUndergrounds 2004: Election Results and Discussion forum are legendary and have attracted observers from all over the Net.

Before the election, TIA produced a daily update of his Election Model site. On 11/1/04, based on extensive statistical analysis, he projected a Kerry win of 51.63% to 48.38%, using a combined average of national polls, and of 51.80% to 48.2% using a Monte Carlo simulation of individual state polls. After the polls closed, data from the Edison Mitofsky NEP survey (sponsored by the major television networks and CNN) was unintentionally released over the Internet. This was internal network data, embargoed from public use, data with statements like Estimates not for on-air use and This page cannot be displayed. The networks had locked down this data for their own use in an electronic cover-up that was offensive to those who knew the story. Luckily for all of us, Jonathan Simon downloaded the exit poll data and saved the CNN screen shots! The Edison-Mitofsky (EM)-Corporate Media (CM) embargoed data was available for anyone with eyes to see it and a mind to review it.

TruthIsAll immediately began analyzing and publishing analyses on the forbidden data. Looking at the demographics on the second to last E-M major network poll, he laid out the set of improbable circumstances needed for Bush to win: To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe. This post was cited by Will Pitt in a major blog, which gave it wide visibility on the Net. KERRY WON THE FEMALE VOTE BY A HIGHER PERCENTAGE THAN BUSH WON THE MALE VOTEAND MORE WOMEN (54%) VOTED THAN MEN (46%). It was all right there, polling results that we were never intended to see. But this was only the beginning. There are over 100 individual analytical postings that demonstrate the tremendous odds against a Bush win. This high-level analysis dovetailed with and was confirmed by on-the-ground stories of voting rights violations all over the country, particularly in Ohio.

The key data sources for TIAs analysis are the four EM National Exit Polls and the 50 state exit polls. For those who doubt the reliability of exit polling, there has been a trend toward accuracy within 0.4% since 1998. These Exit polls are endorsed heartily by international voting rights activists -- the Carter Center, for example -- and even the Bush administration, which used them, ironically, in the Ukraine elections to demonstrate fraud and call for a new election.

At 12:22 am on November 3, the national exit poll of 13,047 respondents showed Kerry to be the winner by 51% to 48%, matching TIAs pre-election projection. The poll was un-weighted, meaning the EM and CM had yet to apply weighting adjustments: percentages and weights applied to all the demographic categories to match the poll results to the reported vote count! Imagine if this technique had been applied by exit pollsters in the first Ukrainian election to show victory for the incumbent, who had committed gross election fraud. Yet this odd technique of turning a poll into a ratification of the actual voting results was applied in the American election. The final exit poll, with 13,660 respondents, showed a stunning reversal of fortune for Bush. The poll results were re-weighted to create a Bush victory margin.

The odds against the deviations from the state and national exit polls to the final vote count are astronomical. In addition, there is the consistency of the pristine exit poll timeline from 4 pm (8349 respondents) to 7:30 pm (11,027) to 12:22 am (13,047).

In addition to the gender-based evidence cited above, TIA has shown that some weightings for the question How did you vote in 2000 are mathematically impossible. For example, the final poll claims that 43% of all 2004 voters were former Bush 2000 voters. But 43% of 122.3 million, the number of votes in the 2004 presidential election, is 52.59 million, and Bush only got 50.46 million votes in 2000, approximately 1.75 million of them from voters who have since died. Therefore, Bushs final poll exit poll numbers, WHICH WERE MATCHED TO THE VOTE, had to be off by 4 million votes.

The analysis also demonstrated that other voter statistics make it impossible for Bush to have won. Even if all Bush voters from 2000 showed up and voted for him, he still needed an additional 13 million votes. He didnt get them from new voters and those who did not vote in 2000; those voters preferred Kerry by an almost 3-to-2 margin. Because of this, a Bush victory required that he must win a whopping 14% of Gore 2000 voters, all of whom had to return to vote in 2004. But Gore voters were angry; they came back to defeat Bush once again after having the election stolen from them.

Logical absurdities and inconsistencies in Election 2004 abound. The data, analysis, and narrative are available at (insert link) for open-minded individuals who want to form their own conclusions about Stolen Election 2004.

This work is just part of a comprehensive set of election fraud work and analysis provided by the dedicated voting rights activists in DemocraticUnderground.Coms 2004: Election Results and Discussion forum, a unique Net resource.

Exit Poll Analysis: The Essential Threads
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Exit Poll Analysis: A Complete Selection
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


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jojo54 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-14-05 11:19 PM
Response to Original message
1. The key words here are
'stunning victory that defied all odds'.

The odds....well, I believe the odds spoke for themselves, which is why the election stunned a lot of people.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-14-05 11:24 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. yes with the emhasis on "all" odds!
Check out tia's Essential DU threads. The narrative is brief but clear and the analyses speak for themselves.
:hi:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-15-05 10:08 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Probability of one in: hundreds, millions, trillions, sextillions...
depending on what numbers you look at:

- 42 out of 50 states deviating from the exit polls to Bush
- All 22 states in the eastern time zone deviating to Bush
- Bush reversing a 51-48 national exit poll defeat to a 51-48 win.
- 16 states deviating beyond the MoE from the exit poll to the vote
- 86 of 88 touchscreens switching votes from Kerry to Bush

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FULL_METAL_HAT Donating Member (673 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-16-05 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #3
17. TIA, here's an interesting take on all the odds
It just occured to me that with the odds of the Bush infinite PROBABILTY drive approaching 1 to 1 for their shennanigans ...

perhaps you might grace us with some odds on their getting CAUGHT!

What are the odds of Rove even getting FIRED let alone getting the wrist slapping of his life...

And REALLY, what are the odds W will actually follow Nixon's example?

TIA apply your mighty statistical powers on these important questions!

:)

To put a finer edge on it though, perhaps seeing some reasonable probablities could give people some real inspiration. (!!)

All the best,

{B^)
FMH

p.s. is the 'raw data' of the exit polls "published" yet? LOL What are the odds they will be! :)
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cyberpj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-15-05 11:52 AM
Response to Original message
4. I monitor the 2004 Election thread and have been a believer
and trying to stay on top of Election Fraud at other sites as well as here at DU.

My response to all of the information and the included threads is to ask whether or not you are sharing all of this information with top level Election Fraud efforts who might need it. TruthIsAll has posting excellent data here for many many months - as you noted. My fear is that it gets read here and people agree and that nothing else happens with so much valuable information. It would seem there is much proof in the DU Election 2004 thread but what happens to it after that?

Just wondering. And yes, I do my part when I can by sending items to Velvet Revolution and other election fraud sites but it all seems too scattered and why can't we get A SINGLE UNIFIED EFFORT going?

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-15-05 01:25 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Good question--this is a great tool for you to use.
Hopefully, you'll see it more and more-- the release and, more importantly, the link to the "essential" annotated TIA threads.

It's here on a public forum and can be linked or otherwise used (remember the links on DU truncate and have to be re-inserted for use off of DU, which is easy).

Thanks
:hi:

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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-15-05 07:47 PM
Response to Original message
6. kick.nt
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-15-05 11:05 PM
Response to Original message
7. Even the astronomically unlikely happens...
after millions and millions of elections.

Let's see, we're up to, what, the mid-forties here?


Hmmm...where's Occam's Razor when you need it?


:)


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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-15-05 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. bleever. My interest is in the low forties--42% approval.
We get our story, the truth, when he dips below 40%. It will happen!
:hi:
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-15-05 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Please, sir:
I really question that his approval is stuck at 42%.

I think that it's really in the thirties, and has been for at least a few weeks. Somehow, I can't really trust the polls that have him not sinking lower over the last eight weeks.

Maybe I'm "hysterical" (Hannity). Maybe I'm "angry and adrift" (Mehlman). Maybe I'm "bereft of ideas" (Limnbaugh).

Or maybe, I'm one of the unwashed rebels, lashed by the elements, unprotected by the powers that be, that still believes in basing a community on Reality.

He may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.

And me, and my friends in the Reality-Based Community, and the forces of gravity and physics and karma, won't be blown off by the Imperial Bloviations anymore.

In fact, to be honest: they're getting boring.


:toast:


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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-16-05 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. Sir, I shall refrain from blovating! 42% is inflated for * approval.
But wait, I discounted for that inflation according to my notes here (secret, part of an ongoing investigation) so when I say below 40%, I really mean, "at around 35%." It's a Da Vinci Code thing, I wouldn't understand.

My lord, I was called "Sir" on DU.

:toast: to you too!

Bleever wins...Best DU line of the month:
"And me, and my friends in the Reality-Based Community, and the forces of gravity and physics and karma, won't be blown off by the Imperial Bloviations anymore."
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MissWaverly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-16-05 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. Oh, I certainly hope so!
I would like to see all the perpetrators of the 2004 election fraud
go down, including those involved in the cover up, and I would like
to see real election reform which will take elections out of the
hands of private corporations who control the process at the present
time.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-16-05 07:13 AM
Response to Original message
11. Great, great work, autorank! Thank you!
I'll be back here later with an editing suggestion. I think you should START with the Bush approval rating at 42%, with huge disapproval of every major Bush policy, foreign and domestic (way up in the 60% to 70% range), in poll after poll after poll, and say, what's going on here? Where is this regime's support NOW? How did it get elected? And many reasonable people who hadn't thought about it before, are soon going to be asking questions about Karl Rove's "invisible" get out the vote campaign.

I think you should then give just a few simple facts about the fraudulent (non-transparent, unverifiable, Bushite-controlled) election SYSTEM.

Context.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-16-05 10:09 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Great!!!!!!!!
Suggest away, modify, use...it's an evolving document.

Your input is more than welcome!
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dchill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-16-05 01:08 PM
Response to Original message
13. Excellent!
kick
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Stevepol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-16-05 05:27 PM
Response to Original message
15. What a tremendous bit of work this is!
You've compressed a lot of information in a short space and covered all the statistical bases.

Eventually all this work so many are doing will prevail.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-16-05 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. Thanks, feel free to share the link to this thread liberally...
:hi:
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 05:08 AM
Response to Original message
18. Great job!
It's nice to have all of this information in one place.

It is only a matter of time before the people catch on to this, even if nearly all of the politicians refuse to.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-05 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. Meant to say thank you. Cheap way of doing a kick.
Keep up the good work yourself. More threads from mcintyre.
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paineinthearse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 06:22 PM
Response to Original message
19. Excellent work by DU's 2004 group.
:thumbsup:
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-19-05 02:31 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. Thanks paine! ERD is doing great work just tonight
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wli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-21-05 01:03 AM
Response to Original message
22. I don't "believe" anything
The evidence is overwhelming. Kerry won. The neofascists committed fraud on a truly grand scale.

Everyone saw it. Those who refuse to admit it are fools not to believe their own eyes.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-21-05 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. "Belief" versus "knowledge"
Edited on Thu Jul-21-05 02:13 PM by autorank
I'm with you, I believe that the election was stolen and I know it was, as well. There are those who say we can't make the charge unless we have proof. Well, you get proof though investigations. The information that takes us to our strong belief is sufficient, by a long shot, to cause an investigation. This evidence analysis by TIA is both compelling and sufficient, by court standards, to introduce.

Good point!!!
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-22-05 08:54 AM
Response to Original message
24. kick.nt
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-05 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. Thanks kster
!
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paineinthearse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-26-05 12:20 AM
Response to Original message
26. Both are excellent sources of information nt
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-27-05 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. .
Avatar... paine, you drank the Cool Aid!
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Tigress DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 12:35 AM
Response to Original message
28. Kick!
:kick:
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-04-05 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #28
29. Kick.nt
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-10-05 10:02 PM
Response to Original message
30. Now, more than ever...
...
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d-artignan Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-20-05 06:02 AM
Response to Reply #30
31. kick
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 02:23 PM
Response to Original message
32. kickety-kick n/t
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