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EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS - 7/12/05 UPDATE

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-13-05 06:59 PM
Original message
EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS - 7/12/05 UPDATE
Edited on Wed Jul-13-05 07:34 PM by TruthIsAll
EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS
July 12, 2005


Election Model Projection
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/


National Exit Poll
2:05pm Nov.3, 13660 Respondents
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

National Exit Poll
12:22am Nov. 3, 13047 Respondents
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=265121

National Exit Poll
7:38pm Nov 2, 11027 Respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm

National Exit Poll Timeline (pdf):
11/2/04, 3:59pm 8349 respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/2/04, 7:33pm 11027 respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents

11/3/04, 1:25pm 13660 respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

US Count Votes: new version of Working Paper (Updated June 26, 2005)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x382025

ELECTION 2004: THE COMPLETE GRAPHICAL REFERENCE
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 01:57 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352164

ELECTION INCIDENT REPORTING SYSTEM (EIRS)
https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&tab=ALL



EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER: KEY RESULTS
Edited on Sat Jul-09-05 06:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x383014


It's a shutout: FRAUD 3 , rBr 0
Edited on Wed Jul-06-05 12:38 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x382581


Linear Regression GRAPH: Kerry State Vote vs. Exit Poll completion Edited on Mon Jul-04-05 10:47 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x382344


Optimizer sensitivity analysis: aggregate alpha vs. partisan alpha
Edited on Fri Jul-01-05 02:26 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381871

Bush approval/disapproval by state: clues about the fraud?
Edited on Wed Jun-29-05 01:57 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381452


ELECTION 2004 BY THE NUMBERS
Edited on Tue Jun-28-05 12:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381226

15% OF GORE VOTERS (7.65 MM) SUFFERED FROM ALZHEIMER'S IN 2004
Edited on Mon Jun-27-05 07:11 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381106


Naysayer Hobson's Choice: Final NEP or rBr? Take your pick.
Edited on Thu Jun-23-05 02:12 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x380085

To believe Bush won, you must believe this.
Edited on Sun Jun-26-05 11:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x380907

EXIT POLL NAYSAYERS: A 3RD GRADE ARITHMETIC TEST
Edited on Mon Jun-20-05 04:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379381

WPE and Aggregate Precinct Data Tell Us Where the Election was Stolen...
Edited on Wed Jun-22-05 04:39 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379883


THE CLINCHER: Kerry wins 120 of 120 scenarios
Edited on Tue Jun-21-05 02:12 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379573

The Exit Poll Response Optimizer confirms the USCV simulation
Edited on Sun Jun-19-05 07:08 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379134

The Final National Exit Poll is a FRAUD. Here's proof.
Edited on Mon Jun-20-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379474

First rBr, now eDp (Exuberant Democratic Pollster)
Edited on Wed Jun-15-05 12:19 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x378115

To match WPE, alpha must = 1.155.
Edited on Tue Jun-14-05 08:24 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x378081


OPTIMIZER: EXIT POLL RESPONSE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Mon Jun-13-05 08:19 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377745


LET'S RUN THE OPTIMIZER ASSUMING RELUCTANT KERRY RESPONDERS (rKr)
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 09:52 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=377613#377846


What are the odds?
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 05:26 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377140


POLL BAD, VOTE COUNT GOOD: The RW (M)ost (O)utrageous (E)xcrement
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 12:25 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377263


EXIT POLL ALPHA OPTIMIZER: MAXIMUM BUSH AND KERRY VOTE%
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 09:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377029


HERE'S WHAT BUSH NEEDED IN ORDER TO WIN 51.23%
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 12:56 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377073


QUANTS: To match WPE = - 6.77%, wtd alpha must be at least 1.15
Edited on Fri Jun-10-05 02:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x376814


OPTIMIZER: Assume the exit polls were RIGHT
Edited on Wed Jun-08-05 02:20 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x376182


TO BAIMAN, FEBBLE, OTOH, TFC, O'DELL, etc: IS rBr PLAUSIBLE?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 04:15 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x375366

WHAT IS THE EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER TELLING US ABOUT rBr?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 10:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=375270#


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL: Bush needed 55.2% of refusers
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 02:33 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x374958


Non-linear optimization (Excel "Solver") proves rBr is Null and Void
Edited on Tue May-31-05 02:27 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373889


Which of these facts convinced you that the election was stolen?
Edited on Fri May-27-05 10:06 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373210


Census/Exit Poll Gender Vote Probability Analysis
Edited on Sat May-28-05 12:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373414


2-3 MILLION LOST KERRY VOTES?
CENSUS: 125.7MM; RECORDED: 122.3MM
Edited on Thu May-26-05 05:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372831

CENSUS DATA MATCHED NATIONAL EXIT POLL WEIGHTS(12:22AM, 13047 SAMPLE)
Edited on Fri May-27-05 07:50 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373187

Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff
Edited on Thu May-26-05 12:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=372634&mesg_id=372634

Another probability analysis to illustrate why rBr is implausible....
Edited on Wed May-25-05 01:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372443

A new Poly Sci Statistic: The sBr (shy Bush responder) differential
Edited on Tue May-24-05 03:11 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372040

IS rBr STILL BREATHING? REQUIRED BUSH % OF REFUSERS IS IMPOSSIBLE!
Edited on Sun May-22-05 01:34 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371584

THE EAST WAS THE rBr BEAST
Edited on Sun May-22-05 11:20 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371776

Exposing the Myths: One by One
Edited on Sat May-21-05 10:30 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371420

rBr: The Bush voter equivalent of WMD. There's no there there.
Edited on Wed May-18-05 10:39 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x370703

Prob (86 of 88 screens switch K to B):
1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000
Edited on Sun May-15-05 10:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369374

AAPOR? ESI? Does Not Prove Fraud?
Edited on Sun May-15-05 09:17 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369349

YOU WANT KERRY? PRESS RIGHT HERE. DON'T YOU WORRY
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369552

NON-RESPONSE BIAS? HERE'S WHY IT HURT KERRY MORE THAN BUSH.
Edited on Sat May-14-05 05:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369073

To Believe that Bush won.....
Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:21 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368702

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS: THE RBR HYPOTHESIS IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!
Edited on Sat May-14-05 01:34 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368977

Can someone explain this RBR inconsistency?
Edited on Sat May-14-05 07:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368931

Freeper Logic: aBr, the Alzheimer Bush Responder Hypothesis
Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:38 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368831

MORE NUMERICAL EVIDENCE KERRY WON: 2004 TURNOUT SCENARIOS
Edited on Thu May-12-05 08:24 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368350


NAT. EXIT POLL GRAPHS: TIMELINE, KERRY MARGINS, VOTER TURNOUT
Edited on Thu May-12-05 09:18 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368562


WHERE DID BUSH FIND 13 MILLION NEW VOTES?
Edited on Tue May-10-05 09:00 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x367638

BYE, BYE rBr: IMPLAUSIBLE VOTER TURNOUT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Tue May-10-05 02:40 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x367600

Could 14.4% of Gore voters have voted for Bush?
Edited on Sun May-08-05 09:32 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367160

YOU DECIDE: DO THESE FIVE SCENARIOS MAKE rBr IRRELEVANT?
Edited on Sun May-08-05
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367129

Even assuming rBr, it takes a MIRACLE to reverse Kerry's margin
Edited on Sat May-07-05 02:30 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367001

Our Evidence vs. Their Evidence
Edited on Sat May-07-05 01:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=366974

The Reluctant Republican Responder was a KERRY voter!
Edited on Sat May-07-05 03:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=366880


FEBBLE: WILL YOU COMMENT ON THIS MYSTERY?
Edited on Tue May-03-05 09:28 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=365850


The Reluctant Gore Responder (RGR)
Edited on Mon May-02-05 01:50 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x365133


PUZZLE FOR DUERS:NATIONAL VS. STATE GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC MATCH-UP
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 01:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364702

12:22am State Exit Poll Gender Breakout: Kerry won 329 EV
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364645

HOW KERRY WON OHIO BY 51-48%
Edited on Fri Apr-29-05 10:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364450

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEP TIMELINE
Edited on Thu Apr-28-05 07:25 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x363938


THE 13047 NATIONAL EXIT POLL MATCHED STATE EXIT POLLS TO WITHIN .06%
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362208


STATE / NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS BY REGION
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 03:10 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362106


REFUTE THESE ODDS!
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 06:16 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x361819

Z-score Probability (Bush Z>1 in 35 states): 1 in 4500 trillion
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 01:28 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x361736

Red Shift: Z-scores and Probabilities. Take a deep breath.
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 03:26 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=361617&mesg_id=361617

The Exit Poll Gender Demographic: Another Smoking Gun?
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 09:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359779

The MoE Formula: Mitofsky agrees its 1.0% for over 8000 respondents
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 05:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=357345

Bush Exit Poll Job Approval: A smoking gun?
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:07 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359320

TIMELINE
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:30 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359332

U.S. General Election Poll-7:37pm: "Estimates NOT for on-air use"
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 12:31 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359287

FL Optiscans vs. Touchscreens
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 02:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x358495


The National Exit Poll: A Tragedy in Three Acts
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 10:59 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x357758

Calculate SAMPLE-SIZE for any MoE and confidence level
Edited on Thu Apr-14-05 09:53 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x356832

National Exit Poll Analysis: Using FACTUAL Historic Data
Edited on Mon Apr-11-05 10:58 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x355250

WAS THERE A (N)ATURAL (B)USH (R)ESPONDER?
Edited on Sun Apr-10-05 02:10 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354894

WHICH IS IT: RBR OR EBR ?
Edited on Sat Apr-09-05 09:35 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354809

THE BUSH "BANDWAGON" EFFECT...
Edited on Fri Apr-08-05 09:49 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354407

RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER OR REINCARNATED BUSH RESPONDER?
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 03:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352359


Another Exit Poll Mystery: Party ID. Can you solve it?
Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 02:52 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352065

Voted, Died, Reborn, Did Not Vote
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 09:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351954

IF YOU BELIEVE THESE FACTS, THEN YOU MUST ALSO BELIEVE...
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 12:58 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351776

A 9TH GRADE ALGEBRAIC SMOKING GUN
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 01:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351674

EXIT POLL MYSTERY: How Voted in 2000; 43% Bush/37% Gore
Edited on Wed Mar-30-05 11:13 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350713


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:KERRY'S NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN OF VICTORY
Tue Mar-29-05 08:35 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350526


View the Mathematical FACTS for the TRUTH...
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 10:38 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350334


FASTEN SEAT BELTS. THIS IS THE CLINCHER.
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 01:47 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350225


THE FINAL NEP PADDED A MINIMUM OF 3.85 MIL TO BUSH VOTE
Edited on Mon Mar-28-05 02:18 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349796


NEW VOTERS VS. 2000 VOTER TURNOUT: KERRY WINS 57 OF 60 SCENARIOS
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 11:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349444


THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 06:16 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349275


Reluctant Bush Responder? Or Resurrected Bush Responder?
Edited on Fri Mar-25-05 05:43 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x348688


HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS...
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=348456#


BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000...
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:30 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x347144


FINAL NEP OVERSTATED BUSH VOTE BY AT LEAST 2 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 02:01 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346932


FROM 13047 TO 13660: THE MAGIC 613 FINAL NEP RESPONDENTS
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 10:26 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346890

FOUR VERY RED FLAGS....
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:38 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346284


NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE: THE FULL STORY IN 3 GRAPHS
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 09:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=346481


PROBABILITY TABLE: Exit Poll Margin of Error vs. Vote Deviation
Edited on Thu Mar-17-05 12:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x345177


The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy: Explained
Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 01:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=344005


A SUMMARY EXIT POLL MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION
Edited on Mon Mar-14-05 10:54 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343448


THIS EXIT POLL SIMULATION TEST BLOWS AWAY THE NEDERLAND "PROOF"
Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 12:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342913


Nederland agrees: The Recorded votes and Final Exit poll are bogus.
Edited on Fri Mar-11-05 10:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342689


GRAPHS:1988-2004 Exit Poll to Vote - Trend reversal in 2004
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 11:11 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341940


A Mathematical proof: Preliminary Exit polls are accurate
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 09:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341540


Nat Exit Poll: 7:58pm (Kerry) > 12:22am (Kerry)> 2:04pm (Bush)
Edited on Mon Mar-07-05 11:55 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x340029


Check. Mate.
Edited on Sun Mar-06-05 04:03 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=339246


NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?
Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 01:23 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x334949

MITOFSKY EXIT POLL CAVEAT: "FINAL PERCENTAGES MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY"
Edited on Fri Feb-25-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=334152


IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660?
Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 09:40 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x331601


PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS
Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449


The EAST was the BEAST: Time Zone Exit Poll Discrepancy Analysis
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=318693&mesg_id=318693


BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY
Edited on Sat Feb-12-05 12:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x325206


THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC OF ALL: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE NEW
Edited on Fri Feb-11-05 01:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=323939


1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=301075


Pobabilities of various Party-ID weights in the National Exit Poll
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 04:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=287175





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highnooner Donating Member (373 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-13-05 07:12 PM
Response to Original message
1. And the conclusion is....
Bush stole this election too.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-13-05 08:29 PM
Response to Original message
2. Kick & Recommend---Superb!
:kick:
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-13-05 11:15 PM
Response to Original message
3. Nominated!
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Hissyspit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-13-05 11:23 PM
Response to Original message
4. Thanks, TruthIsAll. Saved.
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frictionlessO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-14-05 07:53 AM
Response to Original message
5. As always excellent work!!
Nom'd and all that and it is so good to see and ER&D thread in the double didgits nom wise.
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Paradise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-14-05 08:04 AM
Response to Original message
6. thanks is not enough...
:kick:
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-15-05 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
7. kick.nt
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byronius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-15-05 07:48 PM
Response to Original message
8. Kicked. And thank you.
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Land Shark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 08:03 PM
Response to Original message
9. might hurt my foot kicking this one it's a lot of work here
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. Thanks for the kick...
Every now and then, we'll kick one of those threads back up. I'm running out of new material. Need to keep the naysayers on their toes.

It's been my experience that if we kick the thread, the naysays will do the heavy kicking to keep it alive for a while.

You know, maybe we need them around here, after all.

Exposes us.
Exposes them.
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 07:28 PM
Response to Original message
11. kick - In tribute to his tremendous contributions - WHY??? :( n/t
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dchill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-26-05 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. "
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:50 AM
Response to Original message
13. Kick nt
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DrDebug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-06-05 07:46 AM
Response to Original message
14. Kick n/t
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freedomfries Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-06-05 08:16 AM
Response to Original message
15. now more than ever before
thanks again TIA
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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-08-05 03:33 PM
Response to Original message
16. kick..and Spread the News to the pitifully-corporate-co-opted media:
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-08-05 05:04 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. I second tiptoe's suggestion!!!
:kick:
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Wabbajack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-09-05 07:35 PM
Response to Original message
18. Why was Truthisall banned?
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-10-05 06:27 PM
Response to Original message
19. Wabba, We don't get to ask that question online. Spread the threads!
These need to go everywhere. Here's another to spread, it's an article with links, annotated.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0507/S00238.htm

The Unanswered Question: Who Really Won In 2004?

By DU Poster Autorank
Posted at Democratic Underground
See also... this annotated thread. It�s all in the numbers

According to the vote tabulators, in the 2004 presidential election George W. Bush won a stunning victory that defied all odds, particularly those applied by unbiased statisticians. He won despite trailing in most state and national polls. He won despite an approval rating of less than 50%, usually the death knell for an incumbent presidential candidate. He won despite trailing in the three National Exit Polls three timelines from 4pm to 12:22 am (13047 respondents) by a steady 48%-51%, miraculously winning the final exit poll (with only 613 additional respondents, totaling 13,660). This poll was �weighted� (altered) to meet the reported election result on the assumption that the reported result was accurate -- quite an assumption. The final poll showed a stunning reversal of the Kerry 51%-48% poll margin, which had been measured consistently all day by the same polling group: major news/networks and polling firm Edison-Mitofsky.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-11-05 02:23 AM
Response to Original message
20. kick.nt
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dchill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-13-05 04:02 PM
Response to Original message
21. To say the least...
Kick.
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