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ELECTION 2004 BY THE NUMBERS

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-28-05 11:17 AM
Original message
ELECTION 2004 BY THE NUMBERS
Edited on Tue Jun-28-05 11:21 AM by TruthIsAll
ELECTION 2004 BY THE NUMBERS	

62.03mm	 Recorded Bush votes
59.03mm	 Recorded Kerry votes
122.3mm	 Total votes

16 states exceeded the MoE in favor of Bush
0  states exceeded the MoE in favor of Kerry
1 in 40:Probability a given state would exceed MoE for Bush
1 in 19 Trillion: Prob. at least 16 states exceed MoE for Bush

22 Eastern Time Zone states
22 EST states deviated to Bush
1 in 4.2 million: Probability 22 EST states deviate to Bush

42 states deviated from exit poll to vote in favor of Bush			
1 in 1.7 million:Probability at least 42 states deviate to
Bush			

86 touchscreen incidents where Kerry votes switched to Bush
2 touchscreen incidents where Bush votes switched to Kerry			
1 in 79,000,000,000,000,000,000,000: probability 86 to
Bush				

				
OHIO				
Recorded Vote				
2.740mm (48.71%)	Kerry			
2.859mm (50.82%)	Bush			

Exit Poll				
2.871 (51.03%)	Kerry
2.711 (48.19%)	Bush

1 in 106:Probability exit poll deviation to recorded vote


FLORIDA	
40.89%	Dem registration: Touchscreen counties
36.77%	Repub. registration
51.30%	Kerry%

41.92%	Dem. registration: Optiscan counties
38.98%	Repub. registration
42.27%	Kerry%

National Exit Poll: Kerry % at 12:22am	
50.84%	Regional weights (13047 respondents)
50.90%	State exit polls weighted by vote share
0.87%	 Nat Exit Poll MoE (13047 respondents)
	
National Exit Poll Timeline of Kerry Vote %:	
50.75%	 3:39pm (8349 respondents)
50.77%	 7:33pm (11027 respondents)
50.80%	12:22am (13047 respondents)
47.94%	1:25pm (13660 respondents)

Kerry vote share	
57%	New Voters(13047 respondents)
65%	Percent of Nader 2000 voters for Kerry
54%	New Voters(13660 respondents)
71%	Percent of Nader 2000 voters for Kerry
	
Kerry share of Female Vote	
Pct	Respondents
58%	8349
53%	11027
54%	13047
51%	13660
	
Party ID (Dem/ Rep / Ind)	
Pct	Respondents
38/35/27	13047
37/37/26	13660

How Voted in 2000:	
0.87%	U.S. Annual death rate
3.50%	approx. percent of 2000 voters who died

50.456mm:Bush 2000 vote
48.7mm:Approximate Bush 2000 voters still alive
39.82%:Maximum % Bush 2000 voters who could vote in 2004
	
51.999mm:Gore 2000 vote
49.2mm:Approximate Gore 2000 voters still alive
40.25%:Maximum % Gore 2000 voters who could vote in 2004
	
	
13047	Respondents
41%	Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
39%	Gore 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
	
13660	Respondents
43%	Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
37%	Gore 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote

National Census	
125.7mm:Estimate of  total 2004 vote
122.3mm:Recorded vote
3.4mm: Difference
0.30%: Census MoE

Exit Poll WPE Analysis by Precinct Partisanship	

6.77%:Aggregate WPE (within precinct error-1250)
1.155:Minimum alpha (57.75 Kerry/ 50 Bush) required to satisfy
WPE
53%: Aggregate exit poll response rate

51.24%: Bush 2-party recorded vote
52.15%: Kerry 2-party exit poll
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-28-05 11:32 AM
Response to Original message
1. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 08:19 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Really, Arbo, you are asking a lot of of us, after THREE stolen elections,
the last two by Diebld, ES&S and assorted Bush "Pioneer" electronic voting machine companies, to give a crap about whether anybody steals an election from a Republican in the future.

But the funny thing is, we DO care. We just want HONEST elections in which the true majority in this country--the progressive majority, the anti-war majority--gets to have "consent of the governed." We'll take our chances in HONEST votes. Will Bushites?

They can't really afford honest elections, can they? Because they are, and always will be, the representatives of the oil cartel, of Saudi billionaire princes and ripoff artists like Halliburton. They are, and always will be, traitors to this country, and they cannot win an honest election. That's the truth of the matter.

You give yourself away with the phrase "voter fraud." It's only "voter fraud" to those who think that voting against Bush is inherently fraudulent and shouldn't be permitted.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:27 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
liam_laddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. definitions
It's NOT "voter fraud," Paul, it's vote-counting (or tabulation) fraud. The Carter-Baker sham hearing tomorrow has been
using the term "voter fraud" as a means to deflect attention away
from the real issue, trying to shift the blame to the electorate, and
to protect the crooks in the election systems business. Typical rethug technique. Cover up the real problem with BS. Geez!
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-28-05 11:44 AM
Response to Original message
2. 2 touchscreen incidents where Bush votes switched to Kerry
I haven't been one to trumpet this but after all has been said and done (Jim Lampley's article on the Huffington blog sent me over the edge) there is no doubt it was fixed. No doubt in my mind anyway.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-28-05 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. FYI, Lampley's read TIA's stuff. Interesting, you heard it on DU first.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-29-05 12:47 AM
Response to Original message
4. Kick..nt
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 08:02 PM
Response to Original message
8. kick - In tribute to his tremendous contributions - WHY??? :( n/t
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
9. Kicking for truth, justice, and TIA's invaluable work.
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