ELECTION 2004 BY THE NUMBERS
62.03mm Recorded Bush votes
59.03mm Recorded Kerry votes
122.3mm Total votes
16 states exceeded the MoE in favor of Bush
0 states exceeded the MoE in favor of Kerry
1 in 40:Probability a given state would exceed MoE for Bush
1 in 19 Trillion: Prob. at least 16 states exceed MoE for Bush
22 Eastern Time Zone states
22 EST states deviated to Bush
1 in 4.2 million: Probability 22 EST states deviate to Bush
42 states deviated from exit poll to vote in favor of Bush
1 in 1.7 million:Probability at least 42 states deviate to
Bush
86 touchscreen incidents where Kerry votes switched to Bush
2 touchscreen incidents where Bush votes switched to Kerry
1 in 79,000,000,000,000,000,000,000: probability 86 to
Bush
OHIO
Recorded Vote
2.740mm (48.71%) Kerry
2.859mm (50.82%) Bush
Exit Poll
2.871 (51.03%) Kerry
2.711 (48.19%) Bush
1 in 106:Probability exit poll deviation to recorded vote
FLORIDA
40.89% Dem registration: Touchscreen counties
36.77% Repub. registration
51.30% Kerry%
41.92% Dem. registration: Optiscan counties
38.98% Repub. registration
42.27% Kerry%
National Exit Poll: Kerry % at 12:22am
50.84% Regional weights (13047 respondents)
50.90% State exit polls weighted by vote share
0.87% Nat Exit Poll MoE (13047 respondents)
National Exit Poll Timeline of Kerry Vote %:
50.75% 3:39pm (8349 respondents)
50.77% 7:33pm (11027 respondents)
50.80% 12:22am (13047 respondents)
47.94% 1:25pm (13660 respondents)
Kerry vote share
57% New Voters(13047 respondents)
65% Percent of Nader 2000 voters for Kerry
54% New Voters(13660 respondents)
71% Percent of Nader 2000 voters for Kerry
Kerry share of Female Vote
Pct Respondents
58% 8349
53% 11027
54% 13047
51% 13660
Party ID (Dem/ Rep / Ind)
Pct Respondents
38/35/27 13047
37/37/26 13660
How Voted in 2000:
0.87% U.S. Annual death rate
3.50% approx. percent of 2000 voters who died
50.456mm:Bush 2000 vote
48.7mm:Approximate Bush 2000 voters still alive
39.82%:Maximum % Bush 2000 voters who could vote in 2004
51.999mm:Gore 2000 vote
49.2mm:Approximate Gore 2000 voters still alive
40.25%:Maximum % Gore 2000 voters who could vote in 2004
13047 Respondents
41% Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
39% Gore 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
13660 Respondents
43% Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
37% Gore 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
National Census
125.7mm:Estimate of total 2004 vote
122.3mm:Recorded vote
3.4mm: Difference
0.30%: Census MoE
Exit Poll WPE Analysis by Precinct Partisanship
6.77%:Aggregate WPE (within precinct error-1250)
1.155:Minimum alpha (57.75 Kerry/ 50 Bush) required to satisfy
WPE
53%: Aggregate exit poll response rate
51.24%: Bush 2-party recorded vote
52.15%: Kerry 2-party exit poll