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The Final National Exit Poll is a FRAUD. Here's proof.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 10:32 PM
Original message
The Final National Exit Poll is a FRAUD. Here's proof.
Edited on Mon Jun-20-05 10:44 PM by TruthIsAll
The maximum possible percentage of Bush 2000 voters who could
have voted in 2004 is 39.82%.

Bush 2000 voters: 50.456 million
Bush 2000 voters still alive = 48.69mm

Total 2004 voters: 122.3 mm.

Maximum Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of Total 2004 voters:
Bush 2000/Total 2004 = 48.69/122.3 = 39.82%

The same calculation for Gore voters = 40.25%

Now lets look at the National Exit Poll:


IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO I:
13047 respondents: 12:22am
Kerry wins easy - even with an IMPOSSIBLE 41% Bush/39% Gore
split

	Mix   Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	41%	57%	2%	7.0%	9.7%	0.3%
Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%	3.1%	35.5%	0.4%
Bush	41%	90%	10%	0%	36.9%	4.1%	0.0%
Other	3%	13%	65%	16%	0.4%	2.0%	0.5%
	100%				47.38%	51.23%	1.21%

Probability of Bush going from 47.38% (poll) to 50.73% (vote):
 
1 in 38,498,885,514


IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO II:
Final Exit Poll (1:25pm)- 13660 respondents:
BUSH WINS: PURE FICTION - 43% IS EVEN MORE IMPOSSIBLE

MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
NO    17%	45%	54%	1%	7.7%	9.2%	0.2%
Gore  37%	10%	90%	1%	3.7%	33.3%	0.4%
Bush  43%	91%	9%	0%	39.1%	3.9%	0.0%
Other  3%	21%	71%	8%	0.6%	2.1%	0.2%
100%				51.11%	48.48%	0.78%



PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO III:
Using the calculated maximum possible weightings, Kerry wins
in a  landslide: 

Kerry	63.89mm (52.24% 
Bush	56.77 (46.42%)
Nader/Other 1.49 (1.22%)


VOTE2000	
      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17.00%	41%	57%	2%	7.0%	9.7%	0.3%
Gore	40.24%	8%	91%	1%	3.2%	36.6%	0.4%
Bush	39.82%	90%	10%	0%	35.8%	4.0%	0.0%
Other	3.00%	13%	65%	16%	0.4%	2.0%	0.5%
	100%				46.42%	52.24%	1.22%
							

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Internut Donating Member (436 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 10:35 PM
Response to Original message
1. The 2002 American National Election Study
Edited on Mon Jun-20-05 10:39 PM by Internut
that can be found here: http://www.pop.psu.edu/data-archive/codebooks/nes/NES20... ) contained this question:


V203111: Who did R (respondent) vote for in the 2000 presidential election?

With the following results:

1. Al Gore 431 44%
3. George W. Bush 502 51%
5. Ralph Nader 32
7. Other {SPECIFY} 8
8. Don't know 1
9. Refused 10
0. NA 1


Note: these are raw results, not "weighted", not tampered with in any way.

Do you consider this 2002 American National Election Study a "FRAUD", judging by those results?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Internut, I am interested in the facts, not a survey. Got it?
Edited on Mon Jun-20-05 11:03 PM by TruthIsAll
By the way, how does Bush get 43%-37%?
What does that say about rBr?

You are being reluctant with the facts.

YOU LOSE: BOTH WAYS!
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Internut Donating Member (436 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. You did not answer the question. n/t
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. What is your point (in a narrow and larger sense)?
This post is about how many possible Bush & Gore voters there were carried over from 2000 to 2004. The survey you site makes little sense, unless Mitofsky used that in the 2004 NEP. Maximum Bush plus Maximum Kerry minus total votes equals new voters. Who won the new voters? What were the reasonable weightings based on this? The poll was a fraud.

Do you believe that there was any election fraud?

If so what are your opinions on how fraud took place?

And here's the big one: Is TIA the only DU poster you regularly bash or are there others? I ask that because I notice the same people, or new people who say the same thing, show up at TIA threads over and over, get their questions asked/answered over and over. Makes people think that there is something extremely valuable/threatening here. Just wondering.
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Internut Donating Member (436 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. My point was very clear, and expressed in a very clear
language in my question. Here it is again:

"Do you consider this 2002 American National Election Study a "FRAUD", judging by those results?".

If TIA refuses to answer it, would you like to give it a try?
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 11:37 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. It's already answered (narrow) you lack of answers (larger) is also an...
Edited on Mon Jun-20-05 11:38 PM by autorank
answer. Bye
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Internut Donating Member (436 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Your failure to answer the question as well is noted. n/t
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David Dunham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 10:38 PM
Response to Original message
2. But I know Gore 2000 voters who switched to Bush in 2004
That was especially true I think with married women, the 'security moms' who were formerly Clinton's 'soccer moms.' It is erroneous therefore to assume that all or nearly all Gore 2000 voters voted for Kerry in 2004.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. So what? That is totally irrelevant to the topic.
Keep your eye on the facts presented here - the total votes in 2000 and 2004. The question is not how they voted in 2004.

The question is:
How many Bush and Gore voters could possibly have voteed in 2004?

Period.

For what it's worth, there is much more anecdotal evidence that more Bush 2000 voters switched to Kerry in 2004 than vice-versa.
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 07:52 PM
Response to Original message
10. kick - In tribute to his tremendous contributions - WHY??? :( n/t
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Land Shark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 09:08 PM
Response to Original message
11. Food for thought
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
12. Kicking for truth, justice, and TIA's invaluable work.
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