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OPTIMIZER: EXIT POLL RESPONSE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 07:05 AM
Original message
OPTIMIZER: EXIT POLL RESPONSE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Mon Jun-13-05 07:19 AM by TruthIsAll
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 08:46 AM
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1. Here is a plausible INTERPRETATION of the results.

Consider precinct partisanships as being equivalent to state groupings.

1. High Bush - KS,NB,SC,WY, ND...
2. Moderate Bush - MO,AZ,TN,NC,VA...
3. Competitive - FL, OH, PA, NM, CO, WI, MI...
4. Moderate Kerry - CA, IL, MN, WA, OR..
5. High Kerry - RI, NY, MA, RI, VT, IL...

For weighted average alpha = 1.15, and a 53% response rate,
to believe rBR and that Bush won the election you must believe:

In High Bush states (0.90), Bush voters were not reluctant.
In Moderate Bush states (1.21), Bush voters were extremely reluctant.
In Competitive states (1.16), Bush voters were extremely reluctant.
In Moderate Kerry states (1.09), Bush voters were somewhat reluctant.
In High Kerry states (1.07), Bush voters were somewhat reluctant.

Could the exit poll discrepancies be partially due to reluctant Republicans who voted for Kerry?

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. The answer to the question is: NO
"Reluctant Bush Responder" (rBr) is a convenient solution in search of supporting data, of which there is none. It's convenient for Bush because no one questions the election and his liegitimacy. It's convenient for the networks because they sponsored the polls that caught election fraud (remember that through 12:25AM election eve, the polls showed Kerry winning 51-48). It's convenient for EM (Edison-Mitofsky) the National Exit Poll firm because they don't upset the apple cart of a stolen election.

In order to believe rBr, the excuse advanced by EM's Mitofsky and his friends, you need to believe that:
1) Mitofsky suddenly lost his touch as an exit pollster;
2) Mitofsky really thinks that he's an incompetent as he's advanced in public speeches and press releases (i.e., that he screwed up this poll big time); and
3) Mitofsky is willing to trash any future business because rBr is so compelling.

We don't know why Mitofsky changed his poll results at midnight, Kerry over Bush, to Bush over Kerry (in conformance with the actual vote count) after 12:25. Curiouser and curiouser.

Exit Polls are Good Enough for the Ukraine, They Should be Good Enough for the USA

Excellent post.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-14-05 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. KICK
:kick:
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 05:28 PM
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3. kick.nt
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