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OPTIMIZER: EXIT POLL RESPONSE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 07:05 AM
Original message
OPTIMIZER: EXIT POLL RESPONSE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Mon Jun-13-05 07:19 AM by TruthIsAll
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/13/05 7:49 AM							
							
Objective: Determine exit poll discrepancy probabilities for
various alpha (K/B) response ratios.

Alpha	Kerry	WPE	Prob.	 1 in			
1.00	48.77%	0.01%	5.03E-01	2
1.02	49.19%	-0.85%	2.04E-01	5
1.04	49.62%	-1.70%	4.81E-02	21
1.06	50.04%	-2.55%	6.23E-03	160
1.08	50.47%	-3.40%	4.28E-04	2,334
1.10	50.90%	-4.25%	1.53E-05	65,300
1.12	51.32%	-5.11%	2.81E-07	3,555,747
1.14	51.78%	-6.02%	1.79E-09	559,644,344

1.15	51.99%	-6.45%	1.33E-10	7,521,468,533

1.16	52.21%	-6.87%	8.36E-12	119,593,696,538
1.17	52.42%	-7.29%	4.44E-13	2,250,674,476,447
			
 						
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:         
                                         							
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average                  
                                 							
2-Kerry 2-party percentage vote                               
                 							
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average                     
                                 							
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)							

.	VOTE% 	EXIT%	DEV				
Kerry 	48.77%	51.96%	-3.19%				
Bush	51.23%	48.04%	3.19%				
Actual Bush	51.23%						
							
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	1.15						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	41%	59%	75%		
Max	25%	41%	59%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	55%	54%	51%	54%	52%		
Max	57%	56%	53%	56%	54%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%		
Max	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	51.96%	48.77%	-3.19%		62.87	59.01	-3.86
Bush	48.04%	51.23%	3.19%		58.13	61.99	3.86
							
							
CATEG.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
RESP	56.0%	54.0%	51.6%	54.8%	52.0%		53.0%
Dev	3.0%	1.0%	-1.4%	1.8%	-1.0%		
							
ALPHA							
K/B	0.90	1.21	1.16	1.09	1.07		1.15
Dev	-21.7%	4.9%	0.6%	-5.1%	-7.1%		
							
VOTES							
Kerry	11.1%	36.8%	44.2%	75.0%	100.0%		48.77%
Bush	88.9%	63.2%	55.8%	25.0%	0.0%		51.23%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	10.6%	40.6%	47.6%	78.4%	100.0%		51.96%
Bush	89.4%	59.4%	52.4%	21.6%	0.0%		48.04%
							
							
WPE	1.1%	-7.6%	-6.9%	-6.8%	0.0%		-6.38%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	11.1%	-1.5%	1.6%	-0.9%	-0.3%		0.4%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	11.1%	36.8%	44.2%	75.0%	100.0%		48.77%
							
ALPHA	0.90	1.21	1.16	1.09	1.07		1.15
AvgDev	-22%	5%	1%	-5%	-7%		
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	22	224	279	90	47		663
Pct	56.0%	54.0%	51.6%	54.8%	52.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	2	91	133	71	48		346
Pct	10.6%	40.6%	47.6%	78.4%	100.0%		51.96%
Bush	20	133	146	20	0		319
Pct	89.4%	59.4%	52.4%	21.6%	0.0%		48.04%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	18	191	261	75	43		587
Pct	44.0%	46.0%	48.4%	45.2%	48.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	2	62	106	53	42		264
Pct	11.8%	32.4%	40.5%	70.8%	100.0%		45.17%
Bush	16	129	155	22	0		322
Pct	88.2%	67.6%	59.5%	29.2%	0.0%		54.83%
							
							
TOTAL VOTES							
Kerry	4	153	239	124	90		610
Pct	11.1%	36.8%	44.2%	75.0%	100.0%		48.77%
Bush	36	262	301	41	0		640
Pct	88.9%	63.2%	55.8%	25.0%	0.0%		51.23%
							
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.43	14.80	23.09	11.98	8.71		59.01
Bush	3.44	25.37	29.18	3.99	0.00		61.99
Diff	-3.01	-10.57	-6.09	7.99	8.71		-2.98
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	0.41	16.33	24.90	12.53	8.71		62.87
Bush	3.46	23.85	27.37	3.45	0.00		58.13
Diff	-3.05	-7.52	-2.47	9.08	8.71		4.75
							
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-77.7%	-26.3%	-11.7%	50.0%	100.0%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-78.8%	-18.7%	-4.7%	56.8%	100.0%		3.92%
							
WPE	1.1%	-7.6%	-6.9%	-6.8%	0.0%		-6.38%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
							

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 08:46 AM
Response to Original message
1. Here is a plausible INTERPRETATION of the results.

Consider precinct partisanships as being equivalent to state groupings.

1. High Bush - KS,NB,SC,WY, ND...
2. Moderate Bush - MO,AZ,TN,NC,VA...
3. Competitive - FL, OH, PA, NM, CO, WI, MI...
4. Moderate Kerry - CA, IL, MN, WA, OR..
5. High Kerry - RI, NY, MA, RI, VT, IL...

For weighted average alpha = 1.15, and a 53% response rate,
to believe rBR and that Bush won the election you must believe:

In High Bush states (0.90), Bush voters were not reluctant.
In Moderate Bush states (1.21), Bush voters were extremely reluctant.
In Competitive states (1.16), Bush voters were extremely reluctant.
In Moderate Kerry states (1.09), Bush voters were somewhat reluctant.
In High Kerry states (1.07), Bush voters were somewhat reluctant.

Could the exit poll discrepancies be partially due to reluctant Republicans who voted for Kerry?

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. The answer to the question is: NO
"Reluctant Bush Responder" (rBr) is a convenient solution in search of supporting data, of which there is none. It's convenient for Bush because no one questions the election and his liegitimacy. It's convenient for the networks because they sponsored the polls that caught election fraud (remember that through 12:25AM election eve, the polls showed Kerry winning 51-48). It's convenient for EM (Edison-Mitofsky) the National Exit Poll firm because they don't upset the apple cart of a stolen election.

In order to believe rBr, the excuse advanced by EM's Mitofsky and his friends, you need to believe that:
1) Mitofsky suddenly lost his touch as an exit pollster;
2) Mitofsky really thinks that he's an incompetent as he's advanced in public speeches and press releases (i.e., that he screwed up this poll big time); and
3) Mitofsky is willing to trash any future business because rBr is so compelling.

We don't know why Mitofsky changed his poll results at midnight, Kerry over Bush, to Bush over Kerry (in conformance with the actual vote count) after 12:25. Curiouser and curiouser.

Exit Polls are Good Enough for the Ukraine, They Should be Good Enough for the USA

Excellent post.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-14-05 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. KICK
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 05:28 PM
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3. kick.nt
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