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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 07:19 AM
Original message
EXIT POLL ALPHA OPTIMIZER: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM BUSH AND KERRY VOTE% SHOW...
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 08:05 AM by TruthIsAll
It was Kerry!

Using E-M's own data:
1) 5 Partisanship category precinct weightings
2) Overall response rate of 53%
3) WPE by Partisanship category

I ran the optimizer to determine the Maximum Kerry and Bush vote percentages for alpha (K/B ) ranging from 1.0 to 1.14.

These were the only other range constraints placed on the partisanship groupings:

RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS
1250 Strong Bush Strong Kerry
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90

KERRY WIN%
Min 0% 25% 45% 55% 75%
Max 25% 45% 55% 75% 100%

RESPONSE RATES
Min 45% 45% 45% 45% 45%
Max 65% 65% 65% 65% 65%

THIS GRAPH SAYS IT ALL:

Image
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katinmn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 07:25 AM
Response to Original message
1. thanks for keeping this front and center, TIA
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 08:16 AM by katinmn
:kick:

edit: recommended
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brindis_desala Donating Member (866 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 07:29 AM
Response to Original message
2. Kick!
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Paradise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 07:31 AM
Response to Original message
3. thanks. n/t
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 07:33 AM
Response to Original message
4. HERE'S THE OPTIMIZER MODEL OUTPUT FOR ALPHA = 1
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 08:23 AM by TruthIsAll
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/11/05 8:03 AM							
							
Objective: 
Determine the the MAXIMUM POSSIBLE vote percentages for Kerry
and Bush, SATISFYING ALL CONSTRAINTS of aggregate exit poll
response data provided by E-M for alpha (Kerry response/Bush
response) ratios ranging from 1.0 (50/50) to 1.14 (57/50).
MITOFSKY CLAIMED ALPHA = 56/50 =1.12						

Precinct Variables 
Input Range (Min, Max)Constraints:                            
                      	
1- Response rates: equate to overall 53% weighted average
2- Kerry 2-party win percentages 
3- Alpha (K/B): equate to overall weighted average from 1.0 to
1.14
4- WPE: as provided by E-M							

ALPHA / MAXIMUM VOTE SENSITIVITY				
alpha	Bush	Kerry		

1.00	43.62	56.39		
1.02	45.33	56.11		
1.04	46.69	55.98		
1.06	47.78	55.90		
1.08	48.77	55.50		
1.10	49.69	54.68		
1.12	50.57	53.94		
1.14	51.41	53.28		


MAXIMUM VOTE % (alpha =1)
Kerry 56.39%
Bush 43.61%

RECORDED 2-PARTY VOTE: 
BUSH: 51.23%
KERRY: 48.77%

WEIGHTED AVERAGE
Response 	53.0%
Alpha (K/B)	1.000

RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	45%	55%	75%		
Max	25%	45%	55%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%		
Max	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	56.05%	48.95%	-7.11%		67.82	59.22	-8.60
Bush	43.95%	51.05%	7.11%		53.18	52.77	-0.40
							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		
							
Resp.	47.5%	45.0%	63.2%	45.3%	45.0%		53.0%
Dev	-5.5%	-8.0%	10.2%	-7.7%	-8.0%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	0.98	1.05	0.88	0.93		1.00
Dev	19.7%	-2.0%	5.0%	-12.1%	-7.4%		0%
							
VOTES							
Kerry	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		48.95%
Bush	75.1%	55.0%	45.0%	25.0%	2.9%		51.05%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	27.4%	44.5%	56.4%	70.5%	93.5%		56.05%
Bush	72.6%	55.5%	43.6%	29.6%	6.5%		43.95%
							
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	24.9%	45.0%	55.0%	75.0%	97.1%		56.39%
							
							
Kerry	10	187	297	124	87		705
Pct	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		48.95%
Bush	30	228	243	41	3		545
Pct	75.1%	55.0%	45.0%	25.0%	2.9%		51.05%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	0.98	1.05	0.88	0.93		1.00
AvgDev	20%	-2%	5%	-12%	-7%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	187	342	75	41		663
Pct	47.5%	45.0%	63.2%	45.3%	45.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	5	83	193	53	38		371
Pct	27.4%	44.5%	56.4%	70.5%	93.5%		56.05%
Bush	14	104	149	22	3		291
Pct	72.6%	55.5%	43.6%	29.6%	6.5%		43.95%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	228	198	90	50		587
Pct	52.5%	55.0%	36.8%	54.7%	55.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	5	104	104	71	50		333
Pct	22.7%	45.4%	52.6%	78.8%	100.0%		56.12%
Bush	16	125	94	19	0		254
Pct	77.3%	54.6%	47.4%	21.2%	0.0%		43.88%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-55.3%	-17.0%	4.3%	35.0%	87.3%		-2.11%
Kp-Bp	-45.3%	-10.9%	12.8%	40.9%	87.0%		12.11%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-14.21%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.77	15.26	25.75	9.58	7.86		59.22
Bush	2.91	22.09	23.52	3.99	0.26		52.77
Diff	-2.14	-6.83	2.23	5.59	7.60		6.45
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	1.06	17.89	29.47	11.25	8.15		67.82
Bush	2.81	22.28	22.80	4.72	0.57		53.18
Diff	-1.75	-4.38	6.67	6.53	7.58		14.65
							
							
							
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 08:50 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. For alpha = 1.0, Kerry maximum VOTE = 56.39%, Kerry EXIT = 56.07%
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 09:19 AM by TruthIsAll
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	56.07%	56.39%	0.32%		67.82	68.23	0.40
Bush	43.93%	43.61%	-0.32%		53.18	52.77	-0.40
							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
Resp.	47.5%	45.0%	63.2%	45.3%	45.0%		53.0%
Dev	-5.5%	-8.0%	10.2%	-7.7%	-8.0%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	0.98	1.05	0.88	0.93		1.00
Dev	19.7%	-2.0%	5.0%	-12.1%	-7.4%		0%
							
VOTES							
Kerry	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		56.39%
Bush	75.1%	55.0%	45.0%	25.0%	2.9%		43.61%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	27.4%	44.5%	56.4%	70.5%	93.5%		56.07%
Bush	72.6%	55.5%	43.6%	29.6%	6.5%		43.93%
							
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	24.9%	45.0%	55.0%	75.0%	97.1%		56.39%
							
TOTAL							
Kerry	10	187	297	124	87		705
Pct	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		56.39%
Bush	30	228	243	41	3		545
Pct	75.1%	55.0%	45.0%	25.0%	2.9%		43.61%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	0.98	1.05	0.88	0.93		1.00
AvgDev	20%	-2%	5%	-12%	-7%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	187	342	75	41		663
Pct	47.5%	45.0%	63.2%	45.3%	45.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	5	83	193	53	38		371
Pct	27.4%	44.5%	56.4%	70.5%	93.5%		56.07%
Bush	14	104	149	22	3		291
Pct	72.6%	55.5%	43.6%	29.6%	6.5%		43.93%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	228	198	90	50		587
Pct	52.5%	55.0%	36.8%	54.7%	55.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	5	104	104	71	50		333
Pct	22.7%	45.4%	52.6%	78.8%	100.0%		56.74%
Bush	16	125	94	19	0		254
Pct	77.3%	54.6%	47.4%	21.2%	0.0%		43.26%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-55.3%	-17.0%	4.3%	35.0%	87.3%		12.77%
Kp-Bp	-45.3%	-10.9%	12.8%	40.9%	87.0%		12.11%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		0.67%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.96	18.08	28.75	11.98	8.46		68.23
Bush	2.91	22.09	23.52	3.99	0.26		52.77
Diff	-1.94	-4.02	5.23	7.99	8.20		15.46
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	1.06	17.89	29.47	11.25	8.15		67.82
Bush	2.81	22.28	22.80	4.72	0.57		53.18
Diff	-1.75	-4.38	6.67	6.53	7.58		14.65
							
							
							
							
							
							
							
							
							
							
							
							
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. FOR ALPHA = 1.12, MAX KERRY = 53.59%, BUSH = 50.57%
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 10:12 AM by TruthIsAll
KERRY OPTIMIZATION


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/11/05 10:25 AM							
							
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a maximum KERRY vote % for alpha = 1.12

Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:         
                                         							
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average                  
                                 							
2-Kerry 2-party win 
percentages                                                
							
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average                     
                                 							
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)							

MAXIMUM VOTE % (alpha =1.12)							
Kerry 53.59%						
Bush	46.41%						

Actual Bush	51.23%						

WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	1.120						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	45%	55%	75%		
Max	25%	45%	55%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%		
Max	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	54.53%	53.59%	-0.94%		66.13	64.84	-1.29
Bush	45.47%	46.41%	0.94%		54.87	56.16	1.29
							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
Resp.	45.0%	45.0%	63.4%	45.3%	45.0%		53.0%
Dev	-8.0%	-8.0%	10.4%	-7.7%	-8.0%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	3.44	0.98	1.16	0.88	0.93		1.12
Dev	207.5%	-12.5%	3.7%	-21.5%	-17.3%		0%
							
VOTES							
Kerry	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		53.59%
Bush	91.3%	55.0%	50.3%	25.0%	2.9%		46.41%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	19.2%	44.5%	53.8%	70.5%	93.5%		54.53%
Bush	80.8%	55.5%	46.2%	29.6%	6.5%		45.47%
							
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	8.7%	45.0%	49.7%	75.0%	97.1%		53.59%
							
TOTAL							
Kerry	3	187	269	124	87		670
Pct	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		53.59%
Bush	37	228	271	41	3		580
Pct	91.3%	55.0%	50.3%	25.0%	2.9%		46.41%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	3.44	0.98	1.16	0.88	0.93		1.12
AvgDev	208%	-13%	4%	-22%	-17%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	18	187	343	75	41		663
Pct	45.0%	45.0%	63.4%	45.3%	45.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	3	83	184	53	38		361
Pct	19.2%	44.5%	53.8%	70.5%	93.5%		54.53%
Bush	15	104	158	22	3		301
Pct	80.8%	55.5%	46.2%	29.6%	6.5%		45.47%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	22	228	197	90	50		587
Pct	55.0%	55.0%	36.6%	54.7%	55.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	0	104	84	71	50		309
Pct	0.0%	45.4%	42.8%	78.8%	100.0%		52.53%
Bush	22	125	113	19	0		279
Pct	100.0%	54.6%	57.2%	21.2%	0.0%		47.47%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-71.5%	-17.0%	-1.0%	35.0%	87.3%		7.18%
Kp-Bp	-61.5%	-10.9%	7.5%	40.9%	87.0%		9.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-2.13%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.34	18.08	26.00	11.98	8.46		64.84
Bush	3.54	22.09	26.28	3.99	0.26		56.16
Diff	-3.20	-4.02	-0.28	7.99	8.20		8.69
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	0.74	17.89	28.10	11.25	8.15		66.13
Bush	3.13	22.28	24.18	4.72	0.57		54.87
Diff	-2.38	-4.38	3.92	6.53	7.58		11.27
							
	ALPHA MAXIMUM VOTE%
	alpha	Bush	Kerry				
	1.00	43.62	56.39				
	1.02	45.33	56.11				
	1.04	46.69	55.98				
	1.06	47.78	55.90				
	1.08	48.77	55.50				
	1.10	49.69	54.68				
	1.12	50.57	53.94				
	1.14	51.41	53.28				
							
*************************************************


BUSH OPTIMIZATION

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/11/05 10:25 AM							
							
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a maximum Bush vote % for alpha = 1.12

Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:         
                                         							
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average                  
                                 							
2-Kerry 2-party win 
percentages                                                
							
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average                     
                                 							
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)							
MAXIMUM VOTE % (alpha =1.12)							
Kerry	49.43%						
Bush	50.57%						
							
Actual Bush	51.23%						

WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	1.120						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	45%	55%	75%		
Max	25%	45%	55%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%		
Max	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	52.72%	49.43%	-3.30%		63.61	59.81	-3.81
Bush	47.28%	50.57%	3.30%		57.39	61.19	3.81
							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
Resp.	47.5%	45.0%	63.2%	45.3%	45.0%		53.0%
Dev	-5.5%	-8.0%	10.2%	-7.7%	-8.0%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.19	1.01	1.16	1.20	1.20		1.12
Dev	6.5%	-9.5%	3.5%	7.0%	7.0%		0%
							
VOTES							
Kerry	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		49.43%
Bush	75.0%	56.5%	50.2%	45.0%	25.0%		50.57%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	27.4%	43.8%	53.8%	60.5%	82.5%		52.72%
Bush	72.6%	56.2%	46.2%	39.6%	17.5%		47.28%
							
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	25.0%	43.5%	49.8%	55.0%	75.0%		49.43%
							
TOTAL							
Kerry	10	181	269	91	68		618
Pct	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		49.43%
Bush	30	234	271	74	23		632
Pct	75.0%	56.5%	50.2%	45.0%	25.0%		50.57%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.19	1.01	1.16	1.20	1.20		1.12
AvgDev	6%	-10%	4%	7%	7%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	187	342	75	41		663
Pct	47.5%	45.0%	63.2%	45.3%	45.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	5	82	184	45	33		349
Pct	27.4%	43.8%	53.8%	60.5%	82.5%		52.72%
Bush	14	105	158	30	7		313
Pct	72.6%	56.2%	46.2%	39.6%	17.5%		47.28%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	228	198	90	49		587
Pct	52.5%	55.0%	36.8%	54.7%	55.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	5	99	85	46	34		269
Pct	22.8%	43.3%	43.0%	50.5%	68.9%		45.71%
Bush	16	129	113	45	15		319
Pct	77.2%	56.7%	57.0%	49.5%	31.1%		54.29%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-55.2%	-18.5%	-0.9%	15.0%	65.2%		-1.15%
Kp-Bp	-45.2%	-12.4%	7.6%	20.9%	64.9%		5.15%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.29%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.97	17.48	26.04	8.78	6.53		59.81
Bush	2.90	22.69	26.23	7.19	2.18		61.19
Diff	-1.94	-5.21	-0.20	1.60	4.36		-1.39
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	1.06	17.60	28.12	9.66	7.18		63.61
Bush	2.81	22.58	24.15	6.32	1.53		57.39
Diff	-1.75	-4.98	3.96	3.34	5.66		6.23
							
	ALPHA MAXIMUM VOTE%
	alpha	Bush	Kerry				
	1.00	43.62	56.39				
	1.02	45.33	56.11				
	1.04	46.69	55.98				
	1.06	47.78	55.90				
	1.08	48.77	55.50				
	1.10	49.69	54.68				
	1.12	50.57	53.94				
	1.14	51.41	53.28				
							

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In Truth We Trust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 07:38 AM
Response to Original message
5. TIA Odds: One in fifty seven TRILLION, seven BILLION,..................
These are the odds of the outcome of Nov 2nd according to a post of yours many months ago. I haven't forgotten. I will never forget!

Truth Is All, I hadn't seen you post in a while so it is reassureing to see you haven't given up on educating and disseminating the facts. Thanks you so much for all your efforts
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katinmn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 08:17 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Let's get this on the greatest page again. Recommend
so people remember we still have not dealt with election fraud and reform.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #5
16. Depends which odds...
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 03:55 PM by TruthIsAll
Which odds?

1. 42 of 50 states deviating to Bush from the exit polls?
1 in 1,718,869
=1-BINOMDIST(41,50,0.5,TRUE)


2. ALL 22 states in the Eastern time zone deviating to Bush from the exit polls?
1 in 4,194,304
=BINOMDIST(22,22,0.5,FALSE)


3. 16 of 50 states deviating to Bush beyond the exit poll MoE, none to Kerry?
1 in 19,083,049,268,519
=1-BINOMDIST(15,50,0.025,TRUE)


4. Bush going from 48-51% in the National exit poll to 51-48% in the vote?
1 in 696,717,814
=NORMDIST(48/99,51/99,0.01/1.96, TRUE)


5. 86 of 88 touchscreens flipping Kerry votes to Bush?
1.23689E-23 =BINOMDIST(86,88,0.5,FALSE)
2.84343E-25 =BINOMDIST(87,88,0.5,FALSE)
3.23117E-27 =BINOMDIST(88,88,0.5,FALSE)
..........
1.26565E-23

1 in 79,000,000,000,000,000,000,000


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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 08:45 AM
Response to Original message
7. THIS *IS* IT FOLKS. The ultimate demonstration Kerro Won-KICK/RECOMMEND
We're there. After how many iterations of demonstrating that there was something major wrong with this election, TruthIsAll is giving us the ultimate demonstration that all the election fraud we saw on the ground and know took place behind the scenes ALL ADDS UP TO A STOLEN ELECTION.

This is the apogee of TIA's work so far and it's thorough, elegant, and extremely compelling: WAKE UP AMERICA
Which is why I'm entirely serious whan I suggest that you...

Contact the DNC and Give 'em Hell About NOT Acting on Election Fraud

NEW LEADERS FOR A NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY
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AuntiBush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
9. Thanks, TruthIsAll for the Reminder: Kerry Won - Bush Stole the WH!
It's common knowledge these days, even on the idiotic-right.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 09:22 AM
Response to Original message
10. Kicked, bookmarked, recommended. Thanks again, TIA! n/t
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
12. HERE IS WHAT BUSH NEEDED IN ORDER TO WIN 51.23%
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 11:44 AM by TruthIsAll
He needed:
1) an aggregate alpha of 1.14 (57/K/50B)
2) 51.8% of the total vote in the non-partisan middle.
3) 1.20 alpha in the non-partisan middle (60K/50B)
4) 47.1% of responders in the middle
5) 58.7% of refusers in the middle.
6) 60.64% of refusers in his moderate stronghold.
7) He had to overcome a 53.2% Kerry lead in exit poll
responders.... 

HE COULD ONLY GET TO 51.23% BY WINNING 56.30% OF EXIT POLL
REFUSERS.
THAT'S A HELLUVA LOT OF RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDERS.


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/11/05 12:14 PM							
							
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive tthe Bush 2-party vote of 51.23% using aggregate
exit poll response data.							
						
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:			
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average 				
2-Kerry 2-party win percentage ranges                 	
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted avg					
4-WPE: input  Min= Max = E-M													
							
TARGET VOTE % 							
Kerry 48.77%						
Bush	51.23%						
Actual Bush	51.23%						
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	1.140						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	45%	55%	75%		
Max	25%	45%	55%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%		
Max	80%	80%	80%	80%	80%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.1%	-6.2%	-8.6%	-6.0%	0.2%		
Max	-9.9%	-6.0%	-8.4%	-5.8%	0.4%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	53.26%	48.77%	-4.49%		63.16	59.01	-4.14
Bush	46.74%	51.23%	4.49%		57.84	61.99	4.14
							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
Resp.	47.6%	45.0%	59.4%	45.3%	67.8%		53.0%
Dev	-5.4%	-8.0%	6.4%	-7.7%	14.8%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.19	1.08	1.20	1.10	1.12		1.14
Dev	4.3%	-5.3%	4.9%	-3.1%	-1.4%		0%
							
VOTES							
Kerry	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		48.77%
Bush	75.0%	59.3%	51.8%	40.4%	20.1%		51.23%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	27.3%	42.4%	52.9%	62.7%	84.9%		53.26%
Bush	72.7%	57.6%	47.1%	37.3%	15.1%		46.74%
							
							
WPE	-9.9%	-6.0%	-8.4%	-5.8%	0.4%		-6.67%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%		0.1%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	25.0%	40.7%	48.2%	59.6%	79.9%		48.77%
							
TOTAL							
Kerry	10	169	260	98	72		610
Pct	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		48.77%
Bush	30	246	280	67	18		640
Pct	75.0%	59.3%	51.8%	40.4%	20.1%		51.23%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.19	1.08	1.20	1.10	1.12		1.14
AvgDev	4%	-5%	5%	-3%	-1%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	187	321	75	61		663
Pct	47.6%	45.0%	59.4%	45.3%	67.8%		53.00%
							
Kerry	5	79	170	47	52		353
Pct	27.3%	42.4%	52.9%	62.7%	84.9%		53.26%
Bush	14	108	151	28	9		310
Pct	72.7%	57.6%	47.1%	37.3%	15.1%		46.74%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	228	219	90	29		587
Pct	52.4%	55.0%	40.6%	54.7%	32.2%		47.00%
							
Kerry	5	90	90	51	20		257
Pct	22.8%	39.4%	41.3%	57.0%	69.5%		43.70%
Bush	16	138	129	39	9		331
Pct	77.2%	60.6%	58.7%	43.0%	30.5%		56.30%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-55.2%	-21.3%	-2.5%	19.6%	70.2%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-45.3%	-15.3%	5.9%	25.4%	69.8%		4.39%
							
WPE	-9.9%	-6.0%	-8.4%	-5.8%	0.4%		-6.85%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.97	16.37	25.20	9.51	6.96		59.01
Bush	2.90	23.80	27.07	6.46	1.75		61.99
Diff	-1.94	-7.43	-1.87	3.05	5.22		-2.98
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	1.06	17.02	27.67	10.01	7.39		63.16
Bush	2.81	23.15	24.60	5.96	1.32		57.84
Diff	-1.75	-6.13	3.07	4.05	6.08		5.31
							
	ALPHA/ VOTE SENSITIVITY						
	alpha	Bush	Kerry				
	1.00	43.62	56.39				
	1.02	45.33	56.11				
	1.04	46.69	55.98				
	1.06	47.78	55.90				
	1.08	48.77	55.50				
	1.10	49.69	54.68				
	1.12	50.57	53.94				
	1.14	51.41	53.28				
							

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knowbody0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. kick
we know we won
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andym Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #12
20. Keep in mind there is no evidence for rBr
Nice reverse engineering. Your data suggests Bush could not have won 51.23% with an alpha of 1.12. Good work.

Bush apparently needs an alpha of 1.14 to get to his recorded vote percentage and if he had achieved this, Bush supporters would have had to be almost implausibly reluctant.

Also it is important to keep in mind that there is no evidence in support of rBr-- it's just a hypothesis with no supporting data in favor. The same is true of the lying Bush voter variant (that Bush voters were more likely to lie to pollsters).


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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 12:20 PM
Response to Original message
14. A great illustration of how far and how hard the data had to be bent
and twisted to make it look like * won...and even then it still doesn't look like it!

The fudging of the final exit poll numbers was unprecedented, a monumental breach of faith by the media, and also an incomplete, shoddy piece of work.


TIA: :yourock:
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Fiendish Thingy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
15. All this math makes my head hurt; thanks TIA
for doing the heavy lifting! This couldn't have been done alone; even if only a few evil software geeks were in on Karl's plan, I have to believe that someday, someway, the story of how they pulled it off will come out...
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
17. kick.nt
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 03:17 PM
Response to Original message
18. kick
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 07:56 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Raise you a kick.nt
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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. Call.... n/t
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-14-05 12:48 AM
Response to Reply #21
23. fold...nt
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-14-05 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
22. New hand KICK
:kick:
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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-14-05 01:33 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. Open for 1 dollar (frugal friendly game)... n/t
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