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TO BAIMAN, FEBBLE, OTOH, TFC, O'DELL, etc: IS rBr PLAUSIBLE?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 03:00 PM
Original message
TO BAIMAN, FEBBLE, OTOH, TFC, O'DELL, etc: IS rBr PLAUSIBLE?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 03:15 PM by TruthIsAll
Don't you think its time we moved off the pablum and got down
to real analysis?

Don't you think it's time to stop criticizing USCV's findings
and get back to work?

Don't you think it's time to test out REAL assumptions and do
some basic algebraic analysis - using constrained
optimization?

Don't you think it's time to try a different approach to
determine whether or not rBr is feasible? 

Don't you think it's time to respond to my challenge to stress
test the Exit Poll Optimizer?

Don't you think it's time to cut the through the rBr fog and
see if it is worth your time to defend it?

Don't you think it's time?

Let's cut through the jargon.
Let's do some work.

Let's have your inputs.
I am at your service.

I will run any and all scenarios you can throw at the model to
see if there is ONE plausible scenario which justifies the rBr
theory.

Here is the model:


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate
exit poll response data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: constrained to weighted average within (MinW,
MaxW)
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to (Min, Max)			
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
4-WPE enter your own (Min, Max) range. You can choose E-M
WPE's if you wish (as shown). 			
			

RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
Enter a value:
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.12	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
						
1250	Strong Bush			Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
MaxW	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
Response rates:							
MinR	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
MaxR	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
Alpha							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		Wtd Average
Resp.	45.8%	69.7%	39.5%	51.2%	63.5%		53.0%
Dev	-7.2%	16.7%	-13.5%	-1.8%	10.5%		

ALPHA							
K/B	1.48	1.21	1.07	1.04	1.00		1.12
Dev	33%	8%	-5%	-7%	-11%		0%

WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry 52.16%	of exit poll responders					
Bush	47.84%						
Bush needed	55.28% of refusers to match his vote					
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-3.39%						
							

							
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	11%	26%	53%	78%	80%		48.19%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.48	1.21	1.07	1.04	1.00		1.12
AvgDev	33%	8%	-5%	-7%	-11%		0%
							
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	18	289	213	85	57		663
Pct	46%	70%	40%	51%	63%		53.0%
							
Kerry	3	91	122	69	46		330
Pct	17%	32%	57%	81%	80%		52.2%
Bush	15	198	92	16	12		332
Pct	83%	68%	43%	19%	20%		47.8%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	22	126	327	80	33		587
Pct	54%	30%	60%	49%	37%		47.0%
							
Kerry	2	27	163	61	26		279
Pct	8%	22%	50%	75%	80%		44.7%
Bush	20	99	163	20	7		308
Pct	92%	78%	50%	25%	20%		55.3%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	5	118	285	129	72		610
Pct	11.9%	28.5%	52.8%	78.3%	79.9%		48.77%
Bush	35	297	255	36	18		640
Pct	88.1%	71.5%	47.2%	21.7%	20.1%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-76.2%	-42.9%	5.7%	56.6%	59.9%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-66.2%	-36.8%	14.2%	62.5%	59.6%		4.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							


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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 03:15 PM
Response to Original message
1. Yes, but I don't understand how your optimizer works
Can you explain it?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Model description and data input requirements
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 03:57 PM by TruthIsAll
The model is an algebraic relationship between essential exit poll variables, based on precinct partisanship groupings.

It is an optimization model.
No simulations.
No standard deviations.

You define the problem.
You specify the input constraints.

The model will iterate to a solution using optimal goal-seeking algorithms which I need not go into.

Start with the Bush/Kerry 2-party vote split.
51.23-48.77%

The weighted average response rate:
53%

Alpha (Kerry response/Bush response)
1.12 = .56/.50

Now it gets interesting.

Specify the min-max ranges (constraints) for:

1) Kerry win percentages over the five precinct groupings.
You can use the ranges given or input your own. The model will determine the appropriate Kerry (and Bush) win percentages for each precinct grouping.

For instance, you can change Kerry's win percentage constraint from the (40-60%) range to (50-52%). The model will force the result to fall within this range for the given grouping.

2) Exit Poll Response rates. The model will generate responses by precinct which satisfy the weighted rate (53%) constraint.

3) Alpha. The model will find Alphas to satisfy the weighted K/B alpha (1.12).

4) WPE. Same as above. The defaults are E-M WPE's.

For any of these precinct min-max ranges, should you wish to constrain the result to a single value (x), then enter x for both min and max.

Th model is VERY flexible. It's a work in progress which has already yielded preliminary confirmation of Ron Baiman's findings at USCV.

The goal here is to stress test the model by throwing various combinations of input variable constraints in order to see what it comes up with - namely output response curves, alphas, WPE's, as well as the percentage of Bush and Kerry refusers in each precinct required to achieve the target vote split.

If the model cannot find a FEASIBLE SOLUTION (input variable constraints cannot ALL be simultaneously satisfied), then a partial solution will be displayed at the point where the model gave up the search.

Have Fun.



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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 05:10 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. So, what's the problem? Why the wait?
The best way to get into it is to just get into it.

Come on in.
The water's fine.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 08:31 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Is it ok if I leave the house once in a while?
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 01:34 PM
Response to Reply #14
33. Only if you go to a cyber cafe (LOL)
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 03:35 PM
Response to Original message
2. Can I just get this clear:?
As I understand it: your target is the two vote percentages, and your constrained variables are the mean category WPEs from the E-M report and the mean completion rates (presumably responders/(responders+refusals+misses). You allow vote percentages to vary within the range for each category.

Tell me if I've got this wrong.

And two questions:

Is your output a series of paired completion rates for Kerry voters and Bush voters, one pair for each category?

And can you tell me where the category numbers (number of precincts in each category) fit in to the model?
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Sorry, I've been staring at it a little harder now
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 03:49 PM by Febble
And I think I understand your weighted average as an input.

OK. Let me think.

Lizzie

Edit: what does "dev" mean? I would have guessed standard deviations, but some are negative values.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. Dev is the deviation from the weighted average.
As this is an optimization, there is no requirement to sample a distribution, therefore no standard deviations.

The category numbers are constant, and are used to compute the weighted averages.

The output is paired for each category.
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Well where do your precinct Ns fit in?
Do they just affect the weighting?

Or are you actually modelling N precincts in each category? In other words, does your output represent N identical precincts in each category? It seems to me it must if you do not have any variance.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 04:32 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Define it as you wish.
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 05:07 PM by TruthIsAll
Think of it as an aggregate of 5 separate precincts.
Think of it as 1250 individuals spread out over the five representative groupings.

Or think of it as 1250 precincts.
The point is, that is the data we must work with.

Just provide the aggregate percentage ranges.

I know it sounds odd to you, but you will be amazed once you supply data assumptions to the model.

Think out of the box.

The drivers are the vote split, the weighted Response rate and the K/B alphas.


Is it clear now?

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. OK one last go (but see my PM)
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 05:26 PM by Febble
What I don't understand yet is whether each precinct within a category can have a different value for WPE and/or completion rate. If it can, the Solver output should give you some estimate of the variance in each for each category. You might even be able to constrain the variance in some way.

But if the precincts can't have different WPEs and response rates within each category, then I don't see how it can model the actual data very well, as the actual data has lots of variance. We know this from the absolute WPEs, and we also know that the distribution in the high Bush category was skewed, because the median was lower than the mean. Ron discusses this point in the original USCV paper. The main topic of my own paper was the distribution of the WPE variance.

If your optimizer can output variance, I'll have a go. But if it can't, no deal, I'm afraid!

Lizzie

(Edit: it's my bedtime now)
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 08:30 PM
Response to Original message
11. It's time for us all to go to school: Where are they?
This was supposed to be a research project and you've provided both a reasonable proposal and the horse power to conduct the project.

Where are they? Is it only on threads that pertain to intra-mural conflict that the researchers appear?

Is there any reason they wouldn't want to come her and show you, TIA, just how right they are?

And researchers, no excuses about TIA being "lovable bug gruff." This is about a passion for knowledge serving a passion for democracy. Besides researchers, your folks can be pretty rough in the clinches as we've all observed.

Do you just chat on your own threads (febble, OTOH, Tfc, O'Dell)?

Diversity is a prime value of the Democratic Party.

Leave the 'burbs and come on into the big city.


We could even have this thread juried and published on some internet journal site. Now there's a benefit to the main reason to do participate here--let's see what you've got to say here.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 10:03 PM
Response to Original message
13. Ok
Why don't you run one with a alpha of 1.12 and a total response rate of 53% -- I think that's what Mitofsky speculated for the whole group. Or do you need me to specify more things?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. Well, hello TFC.
I will run it exactly as you say, even though I have done it
already.
But let's get a dialogue going as a start.

You can fine-tune the assumptions later, if you wish.
By that I mean, adjust min-max ranges, whatever..


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target			
Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll response
data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: equals weighted average within (MinW,
MaxW).			
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to the l range (Min,
Max)			
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
			
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input. 			
			
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.12	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
							
1250	Strong Bush			Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
MaxW	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
Response rates:							
MinR	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
MaxR	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
Alpha							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		Wtd Average
Resp.	45.8%	69.6%	39.6%	51.2%	63.4%		53.0%
Dev	-7.2%	16.6%	-13.4%	-1.8%	10.4%		

ALPHA							
K/B	1.48	1.21	1.07	1.04	1.00		1.12
Dev	33%	8%	-5%	-7%	-11%		0%

WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry 	52.16%	of exit poll responders					
Bush	47.84%						
Bush needed	55.27%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-3.39%						
							

							
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	11%	26%	54%	78%	80%		48.20%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.48	1.21	1.07	1.04	1.00		1.12
AvgDev	33%	8%	-5%	-7%	-11%		0%
							
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	18	289	214	85	57		663
Pct	46%	70%	40%	51%	63%		53.0%
							
Kerry	3	91	122	69	46		330
Pct	17%	31%	57%	81%	80%		52.2%
Bush	15	198	92	16	12		332
Pct	83%	69%	43%	19%	20%		47.8%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	22	126	326	80	33		587
Pct	54%	30%	60%	49%	37%		47.0%
							
Kerry	2	27	163	61	26		279
Pct	8%	21%	50%	75%	80%		44.7%
Bush	20	99	163	20	7		308
Pct	92%	79%	50%	25%	20%		55.3%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	5	118	286	129	72		610
Pct	11.9%	28.4%	52.9%	78.3%	80.0%		48.77%
Bush	35	297	254	36	18		640
Pct	88.1%	71.6%	47.1%	21.7%	20.0%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-76.2%	-43.1%	5.8%	56.7%	59.9%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-66.2%	-37.0%	14.3%	62.6%	59.6%		4.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 04:57 AM
Response to Reply #15
21. And what is the exact probability.....
In an organizational chart format, that Bush would get 55%(plus) refusers all for him which were pre-dominantly women, AND get the changed re-weighted average after 1:41 AM when the Kerry gender weight changed?

What is the real approximate probability?

If you can calculate that, then slide it through the states simulator.....It's now mute. Move on to determine what amount of bias plus fraud costed Kerry the election.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #15
28. Ok, thanks
Can you explain to me how to interpret these tables? In particular, who does it say would have won with the input I gave you, and where does it say that?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 01:26 PM
Response to Reply #28
32. TFC, I suggest you read the output and if you have specific questions..
ask them.

We have set Bush to receive his actual 51.23% two-party vote.

We specified weighted average response (53% and alpha (1.12) as given by Mitofsky.
The optimizer derived partisan precinct responses and alphas.

It calculated Bush/Kerry responders and refusers.
It reproduced the aggregate partisanship WPE's.

It has told us what percentage of refusers Bush needed to get his 51.23%.

Now, TFC, you should be all set.

Do you have any particular Kerry Vote% targets, partisanship response range constraints and/or alpha constraints or other assumptions that you would like to run?

Think.





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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 04:29 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. You don't have to know how the optimizer works.
Edited on Mon Jun-06-05 06:47 PM by TruthIsAll
Just feed it input and check the output.

Then see if the results make mathematical and intuitive sense.
Why the problem?

You have provided some very sophisticated analytical writing here, yet you claim ignorance of the model even after I have spelled it out for you very clearly. You can call me arrogant if you wish. But you are far off the mark.

I issued the call to you for involvement in the process, yet you (and not only you) seem to be reluctant to pursue the stress test.

Why is that?

Why are you so reluctant when it comes to giving me a few inputs, yet you gladly spend hours in esoteric discussions which lead nowhere.

Here is a chance to learn more about the process of modeling exit poll response.

I think it's quite remarkable that Ron Baiman agrees that the model confirms his analysis. And make no mistake about it, we are working with LIMITED data here.

THE OPTIMIZATION CONFIRMS THE USCV SIMULATION. TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT METHODOLOGIES DERIVE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME CONCLUSION.

AS I MENTIONED TO OTOH AND FEBBLE, DON'T FOCUS ON THE FACT THAT ALPHA VARIANCE IS NOT USED. FOCUS ON THE CONSTRAINTS USED IN THE MODEL. WHY THIS RELUCTANCE TO USE IT IF IT DOES NOT RUN THOUSANDS OF SIMULATIONS?

WELL, I HAVE NEWS FOR YOU. IT IS DOING SOMETHING QUITE REMARKABLE IN COMING UP WITH THE OUTPUT. IN MY MIND, IT'S A LOT MORE SOPHISTICATED AN APPROACH THAN TAKING THAT TRIP TO MONTE CARLO.

EVEN WITHOUT SIMULATING ALPHA USING INPUT VARIANCE, WE HAVE DERIVED RESULTS WHICH MAKE SENSE.






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RonB Donating Member (53 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 10:16 PM
Response to Original message
16. E-M claims "no constant mean bias conjecture"
Dear "Truth is All",

Your model appears very similar to what USCV has been doing. I would guess that it would produce the same result, i. e. that the constant mean bias conjecture, and particularly the K=.56 and B=.5 hypothetical, cannot possibly explain the E-M data.

I have done some statistical analysis (in previous post) that shows the same thing.

In any case the argument is now irrelevant as E-M has stated that:

"There is no constant mean bias conjecture on our part. This is wholly USCV's invention."

I have an email from them to this effect, it contains other personal
references so I cannot make it public - unless I get permission from the sender.

It appears that you have considerable expertise at quantitative analysis. Would you like to join our list? Please contact me if you are interested. We could then subject your model to further investigation.

Sincerely,

Ron
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 04:50 AM
Response to Reply #16
20. TIA, you should most definitely join the group.
It's clear that now we've narrowed it down to a probability analysis.

There must therefore be a certain determined "probability", as per the cencus results, for Bush to get 55% of refusers in the United States population (out of literally 125 million people- Half the total population) and to get those refusers in only the eastern states.

If it can be proven what probability that is, Reluctant Lie Refuser is dead and can not be ressurected. The only problem is, that no one has made a real comprehensive case against it yet.

Then, that would leave the only alternative explanation as fraud. However, there was fraud and sampling bias. There was not massive amounts of either one, just a million purged votes in this state, a million (60,000) in Ohio and elsewhere which fill up the means.

But I'm positive now there was not more Kerry bias than Bush bias, instead there was LESS Kerry voters than Bush voters......Which means there must be a huge archive of lost Kerry votes in that pool.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
17. It's not rBr, it's rKv.
Reluctant Kerry Voter hypothesis.

Warren Mitofsky says it was just reluctant Bush responders that screwed up his exit polls. If so, then why did he have to adjust the final national weighting to show as many Repubs as Dems, and in the Western Region, MORE Repubs than Dems?

If it was just a case of reluctant responders, the turnout of the 2 main parties should have been close to historical norms after he made his little adjustments, but to get the numbers to add up, he had to show that the Dems stayed home or the Repubs turned out in droves, and didn't vote for Kerry.

Warren says there's a reluctant Bush responder hypothesis, but his own numbers employ a reluctant Kerry voter hypothesis, don't they?
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mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #17
35. Link please
That reweighting is very intriguing. California's dominance should swamp the rest of the region.

Mike
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Internut Donating Member (436 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. As I have shown Bill in a later post,
"historical norms" do not stay constant, and, at least according to the study in the link, the party self-identification percentages have been moving closer and closer:

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=750
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mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #36
41. I would take the report with salt
California's party registration is 43% democratic to 34.7% republican. The report has party identification at 38% to 33%, which is a good match to republican registration, but not democratic. What is also problematic is that a binary comparison is being made, when all parties need to enter the picture. What may explain the 5% difference may be stronger allegiance to a third party, such as the greens, although one is a registered democrat; or oversampling of republicans (as we had seen with Gallup during the election).

Since voter registration is tied to motor vehicle registration, it is possible the party registration may be out of date, but since registration is annual, anyone feeling strongly on the matter would have switched over the last two years since 2001(the survey is 2003).

The other problem is the one characteristic of all surveys, and with the discussion of NEP's exit poll's merits needs to always be considered, and that is non-response rates. I was unable to download the data set for the survey, but if the response rates are in the 40% or greater then the error terms are going to be high; and the MOE wider.

Question 18 may be the basis for the report, but the numbers are trending away from republicans towards democrats in the post 9/11 period in 2003.

Mike
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-08-05 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #17
55. If there was any (net) rBr, it could be caused by aRv, or aIBv.
Edited on Wed Jun-08-05 08:47 PM by kiwi_expat

The second exit poll - showing Kerry and Bush about even - would been Mitofsky's attempt to match the recorded vote as it came in, wouldn't it?

If the difference between the first exit poll and second exit poll was at least partly the result of sampling bias (rBr), that portion of the red shift could have been caused by additional Republican voters or by additional Independent voters who voted for Bush. It would not necessarily mean that Democrats stayed home.

How high were the turnout rates in the West?

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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 12:16 AM
Response to Original message
19. kick.nt
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 07:06 AM
Response to Original message
22. umm, okay
I agree with Ron B. that this line of analysis looks similar to what is in the USCV working paper.

What do you consider the important take-home message(s) from the model? Is it that alpha in high-Bush precincts must be very high?

O'Dell's simulation, like (apparently) your optimization, closely matches the observed E/M figures for the high-Bush precincts, and indeed both yield a high mean alpha for those precincts. However, O'Dell also shows that if one trims three high-negative-WPE outliers in the high-Bush precincts (possible pro-Bush fraud, error, or some combination), and three high-positive-WPE outliers in the high-Kerry precincts (possible pro-Kerry fraud, error, or some combination), then the natural log of alpha is about the same on average in the high-Bush and high-Kerry precincts. (See around p. 31 of his paper.)

One way of stating that result is that any pro-Bush fraud in the high-Bush precincts may have been balanced by pro-Kerry fraud in the high-Kerry precincts -- although that is taking the simulation too literally. But at any rate, a high mean alpha in high-Bush precincts by itself doesn't prove much. This is probably why Febble was urging you to model variance in alpha, as O'Dell's simulation does.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 08:32 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. I will respond to your comments later this evening, when I have the time.
Edited on Mon Jun-06-05 09:04 AM by TruthIsAll
I asked you for inputs so YOU could see the take-home results for yourself.

I will say this: your interpretation may or may not be valid, or only partially so.

Keep in mind this is an optimizer not a simulator. We can restrict alpha in each precinct to a given range. That is an implicit variance, no? The model will determine the appropriate precinct partisanship alpha, subject to the weighted average alpha (1.12)

But I will experiment by adding a variance constraint to the model.

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 08:54 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. fair enough
We can take our time on this and try to reach agreement on what is right -- measure twice, cut once. Even if we don't agree on all of it, at least we can agree on some.

I can see the results, but I'm not sure what you think they prove that is of interest. (I mean that literally, not snarkily.) If your main point is that the mean alpha is much higher in the high-Bush precincts, then I think you are right. I don't like the approach of categorizing entire precincts as e.g. "refusers," but I don't think it materially affects your conclusion about alpha. So, if that is your main point, I don't think I need to see the results for any other inputs.

"We can restrict alpha in each precinct to a given range. That is an implicit variance, no?"

I'm not sure. Is it possible for different high-Bush precincts to have different alphas? and if so, how would that variance be displayed in the results?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #24
25. I just ran the model for these max alphas: 1.2, 1.2, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5
Edited on Mon Jun-06-05 09:51 AM by TruthIsAll
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
6/6/05 10:53 AM			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target			
Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll response
data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: equals weighted average within (MinW,
MaxW).			
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to the range (Min, Max)			
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
			
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input. 			
			
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.12	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
							
1250	Strong Bush			Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
MaxW	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
Response rates:							
MinR	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
MaxR	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
Alpha							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	1.20	1.20	1.50	1.50	1.50		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		Wtd Average
Resp.	21.9%	58.4%	59.6%	30.0%	44.2%		53.0%
Dev	-31.1%	5.4%	6.6%	-23.0%	-8.8%		

ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	1.20	1.10	1.03	1.00		1.12
Dev	7%	7%	-2%	-8%	-11%		0%

WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry 	52.16%	of exit poll responders					
Bush	47.84%						
Bush needed	55.57%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-3.39%						
							

							
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	17%	20%	54%	80%	94%		48.06%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	1.20	1.10	1.03	1.00		1.12
AvgDev	7%	7%	-2%	-8%	-11%		0%
							
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	9	242	322	50	40		663
Pct	22%	58%	60%	30%	44%		53.0%
							
Kerry	2	58	193	41	37		331
Pct	21%	24%	60%	82%	94%		52.2%
Bush	7	184	129	9	2		331
Pct	79%	76%	40%	18%	6%		47.8%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	31	173	218	115	50		587
Pct	78%	42%	40%	70%	56%		47.0%
							
Kerry	5	29	108	90	47		278
Pct	15%	17%	49%	78%	94%		44.4%
Bush	27	144	110	25	3		309
Pct	85%	83%	51%	22%	6%		55.6%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	6	87	301	131	85		610
Pct	16.0%	21.0%	55.7%	79.2%	94.3%		48.77%
Bush	34	328	239	34	5		640
Pct	84.0%	79.1%	44.3%	20.8%	5.7%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-68.1%	-58.1%	11.4%	58.4%	88.5%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-58.1%	-52.0%	19.9%	64.3%	88.2%		4.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #25
26. so, this shows...
that strictly speaking, alpha could be not very high in the high-Bush precincts, but only if we postulated ridiculously skewed refusal rates? I'm not sure why that skew in refusal rates doesn't also show up in response rates. (I'm not too bothered, since I'm willing to stipulate a high mean alpha in those precincts anyway.)

(I'm not sure why you would bother to let alpha rise to 1.5 in the high-Kerry precincts, since obviously it doesn't have to.)

I take it that precincts can be assigned fractionally? So, for instance, when the table shows 6 out of 40 precincts as "Kerry votes," and that equalling 16.0%, actually the 16.0% is more precise, and it's about 6.4 precincts.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. Alpha: max= 1.5 in Kerry precincts (not hit); 1.20 Bush max (hit)
Edited on Mon Jun-06-05 10:49 AM by TruthIsAll
The non-partisan middle went up to 1.10

That's why the optimizer is useful. We supply a range of constraints; it chooses whatever values are necessary within the range in order to produce a feasible solution which meets ALL constraints.

Alpha would be be higher than 1.20 for Bush if we opened up the Kerry precinct range (as in the prior run).

Try doing THAT manually, or with a simulator.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 11:53 AM
Response to Reply #27
29. OK, I missed it --
I will have to go back and look at that in slow motion. In my defense, it's probably harder to read the optimizer output without having looked at the innards. I may PM you in a bit with a question of clarification (or post it, whichever seems likely to be easier to follow).

Also my grades are a week overdue, so bear with me.
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #27
39. Which essentially means that once again......
The refusing/lie theory would require 55.60% of the population refusing, in the eastern states, and a reduction in gender.

The probability against it? Enormously high. Certainly did not happen.

Let's try to exemplify the constraints, and find out just how much sampling bias and fraud created this election.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 08:20 AM
Response to Reply #27
40. I misspoke: A fix to the wording.
Edited on Tue Jun-07-05 08:21 AM by TruthIsAll
I said:
Alpha would be be higher than 1.20 for Bush if we opened up the Kerry precinct range (as in the prior run).

I meant:
Alpha would be be higher than 1.20 for Bush if we raised the maximum Bush precinct response range constraint above 1.20 (as in the prior run).
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #27
42. okay, finally got to stare at this
(it didn't take long once I cleared my desk) -- also registered your clarification downthread.

So, I take it the basic reason that the alpha in the middle precincts goes up is that it has to, in order for the overall alpha to remain equal to 1.12, since the high-Bush alpha is constrained to be lower than it 'wants' to be (1.48 in the original model).

That difference between 1.10 and 1.07 in the middle doesn't seem like a big deal, although it helps me understand (I think!) how your optimizer works. I don't entirely understand why the response rates are so volatile (why is there a 20-point difference in the middle precincts, from 39.5% in the original model to 59.6% in the constrained model?), but I certainly think we can rule out 21.9% for the high-Bush precincts.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #42
43. That shows what the optimizer had to do to satisfy the alpha constraint
Edited on Tue Jun-07-05 11:16 AM by TruthIsAll
Of your two statements, one is correct.
The optimizer had to satisfy the 1.12 ALPHA weighted average.
TRUE.

But saying that the difference between 1.10 and 1.07 is not a big deal is FALSE.

The middle non-partisan grouping is very BIG relative to the partisan groups, so the DIFF between 1.10 and 1.07 IS a VERY BIG deal.

IS THAT A CLUE?

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #43
44. well, before I get to that...
(it would depend partly on whether we think of it as a population parameter -- in which case it represents millions of votes -- or a sample statistic -- in which case the difference may not be statistically significant and therefore we don't know what to think of it....)

But I don't see how the calculated alpha is consistent with the other figures. Looking at the middle precincts in the 1.2/1.2/1.5/1.5/1.5 model, I think I see 193 (or so) Kerry responders and 108 Kerry refusers, for a Kerry response rate of about 64.1%. And 129 Bush responders and 110 Bush refusers, for a Bush response rate of about 54.0%. So alpha would be 64.1%/54.0% = about 1.19. Which is close to what I would expect given the WPE of -8.5%, but a lot higher than 1.10. ???
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 01:54 PM
Response to Reply #44
45. You are confusing the vote percentages with alpha
Edited on Tue Jun-07-05 01:57 PM by TruthIsAll
Kerry won 193 (60%) of the 322 who responded in the
non-partisan middle group. Bush won 51% of the 218 refusers.

Bush won the 83-85% of those who refused in his partisan
groups. 
He won 76-79% of the responders there as well.

alpha = 1.1, not .6/.4



EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
6/7/05 2:39 PM			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target	Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate
exit poll response data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: equals weighted average within (MinW,
MaxW).			
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to the range (Min, Max)			
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
			
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input. 			
			
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.12	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
							
1250	Strong Bush			Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
MaxW	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
Response rates:							
MinR	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
MaxR	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
Alpha							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	1.20	1.20	1.50	1.50	1.50		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		Wtd Average
Resp.	21.9%	58.4%	59.6%	30.0%	44.2%		53.0%
Dev	-31.1%	5.4%	6.6%	-23.0%	-8.8%		

ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	1.20	1.10	1.03	1.00		1.12
Dev	7%	7%	-2%	-8%	-11%		0%

WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry 	52.2%	of exit poll responders					
Bush	47.8%						
Bush needed	55.57%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-1.23%						
							

							
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	17%	20%	54%	80%	94%		48.06%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	1.20	1.10	1.03	1.00		1.12
AvgDev	7%	7%	-2%	-8%	-11%		0%
							
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	9	242	322	50	40		663
Pct	22%	58%	60%	30%	44%		53.0%
							
Kerry	2	58	193	41	37		331
Pct 	21%	24%	60%	82%	94%		52.2% Wtd avg
Bush	7	184	129	9	2		331
Pct	79%	76%	40%	18%	6%		47.8% Wtd Avg
							
REFUSERS							
Total	31	173	218	115	50		587
Pct	78%	42%	40%	70%	56%		47.0%
							
Kerry	5	29	108	90	47		278
Pct	15%	17%	49%	78%	94%		44.4%
Bush	27	144	110	25	3		309
Pct	85%	83%	51%	22%	6%		55.6%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	6	87	301	131	85		610
Pct	16.0%	21.0%	55.7%	79.2%	94.3%		48.77%
Bush	34	328	239	34	5		640
Pct	84.0%	79.1%	44.3%	20.8%	5.7%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-68.1%	-58.1%	11.4%	58.4%	88.5%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-58.1%	-52.0%	19.9%	64.3%	88.2%		4.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #45
46. well, maybe
I'm certainly confused about something -- maybe your formatting.


Kerry won 193 (60%) of the 322 who responded in the
non-partisan middle group. Bush won 51% of the 218 refusers.

Bush won the 83-85% of those who refused in his partisan
groups.
He won 76-79% of the responders there as well.

alpha = 1.1, not .6/.4


Can we focus on the middle or "even" precincts for a moment, since those were the numbers I was citing?

Given your output, what do you think are the response rates K and B in the even precincts? I don't see where you are getting the 1.1. (I can see why .6/.4 is wrong, that isn't a problem -- no way is alpha 1.5 in the middle precincts.)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #46
47. Well, start with this...
Edited on Tue Jun-07-05 04:21 PM by TruthIsAll
Kerry Responders = Kerry vote% * Alpha * Total Responders

Alpha = K/B = Kerry Responders /(Kerry Vote% * Total
Responders)

I'll let you figure it out from here.

I'm leaving work.
I'm hungry.

Knock yourself out.
Later.

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
6/7/05 5:12 PM			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target			
Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll response
data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: equals weighted average within (MinW,
MaxW).			
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to the range (Min, Max)			
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
			
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input. 			
			
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.12	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
							
1250	Strong Bush			Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
MaxW	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
Response rates:							
MinR	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
MaxR	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
Alpha							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	1.20	1.20	1.50	1.50	1.50		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		Wtd Average
Resp.	21.9%	58.4%	59.6%	30.0%	44.2%		53.0%
Dev	-31.1%	5.4%	6.6%	-23.0%	-8.8%		-10.2%
							
KERRY							
Poll	21.0%	24.0%	60.0%	82.1%	94.1%		52.16%
Vote	16.0%	21.0%	55.7%	79.2%	94.3%		48.77%
Dev	-5.0%	-3.1%	-4.2%	-2.9%	0.1%		-3.39%

ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	1.20	1.10	1.03	1.00		1.12
Dev	7%	7%	-2%	-8%	-11%		0%

WPE Calc	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry 	52.16%	wtd average of exit poll responders					
Bush	47.84%	wtd average of exit poll responders					
Bush needed	55.57%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-3.39%						
							

							
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
							
VOTE							
Kerry	6	87	301	131	85		610
Pct	16.0%	21.0%	55.7%	79.2%	94.3%		48.77%
Bush	34	328	239	34	5		640
Pct	84.0%	79.1%	44.3%	20.8%	5.7%		51.23%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	1.20	1.10	1.03	1.00		1.12
AvgDev	7%	7%	-2%	-8%	-11%		0%
							
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	9	242	322	50	40		663
Pct	22%	58%	60%	30%	44%		53.0%
							
Kerry	2	58	193	41	37		331
Win Pct	21%	24%	60%	82%	94%		52.16%
Bush	7	184	129	9	2		331
Win Pct	79%	76%	40%	18%	6%		47.84%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	31	173	218	115	50		587
Pct	78%	42%	40%	70%	56%		47.0%
							
Kerry	5	29	108	90	47		278
Pct	15%	17%	49%	78%	94%		44.4%
Bush	27	144	110	25	3		309
Pct	85%	83%	51%	22%	6%		55.6%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-68.1%	-58.1%	11.4%	58.4%	88.5%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-58.1%	-52.0%	19.9%	64.3%	88.2%		4.31%
							
WPE Calc	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%



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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #47
48. can you justify your formula for alpha?
Kerry Responders = Kerry vote% * Alpha * Total Responders

from which you correctly algebraically derive

Alpha = K/B = Kerry Responders /(Kerry Vote% * Total
Responders)

(K is the Kerry response rate, and B is the Bush response rate)

But why should it be true that
Kerry Responders =(?) Kerry vote% * (K/B) * Total Responders??

I think you were thinking something like

Kerry Responders = Kerry vote% * (K/R) * Total Responders

where R would be the overall response rate. So, for instance, suppose we have 100 Bush voters and 100 Kerry voters, but K = 56% and B = 50%, so we end up with 56 Kerry responders and 50 Bush responders (106 total responders). Alpha = 0.56/0.50 = 1.12. By your equation, it should be true that

56 =(?) 0.50 * 1.12 * 106

but actually the right side of that equals 59.36.

If you do

56 == 0.50 * (0.56 / 0.53) * 106

it works.

K/B is close to K/R when B is close to R regardless of K because there are very few Kerry voters, as in the high-Bush precincts -- or when K and B are close to each other, as they apparently were in the high-Kerry precincts. So when I eyeballed those alphas, they seemed familiar. It's the one in the middle that really seems too low to generate a WPE of -8.5%. Ron Baiman figured it at 1.186.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 07:49 PM
Response to Reply #48
49. Peer review is good. I will incorporate the fix. Thanks.
I will be back soon.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 09:18 PM
Response to Reply #48
50. ENHANCEMENTS AND A CORRECTION
Edited on Tue Jun-07-05 09:20 PM by TruthIsAll
As per OTOH, a slight fix was made to the calculation of
responders.
In addition, I added calculations of  vote counts, based on
the derived exit poll and targeted 2-party percentages applied
to the 121 million 2-party vote.


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/7/05 10:04 PM							
							
Objective: 
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive a
target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll
response data.							
							
Constraints on Precinct Variables:							
1-Response rate: equals weighted average within (MinW,
MaxW).							
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to the range (Min,
Max)							
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
							
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input. 							
							
TARGET INPUT							
Kerry 2-party vote		48.77%					
Bush 2-party vote		51.23%					
Wtd Avg Response		53.0%					
Wtd Avg Alpha (K/B)		1.12					
							
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%		
Max	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
ALPHA							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
							
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
POLL	Pct	Votes					
Kerry	52.16%	63.11					
Bush	47.84%	57.89					
Bush needed	55.46%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
PRECINCTS							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		Wtd Average
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		
							
Resp.	12.4%	37.4%	58.8%	72.0%	73.0%		53.0%
Dev	-40.6%	-15.6%	5.8%	19.0%	20.0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.22	1.09	1.16	1.11	1.00		1.12
Dev	9%	-3%	4%	-1%	-11%		0%

2-PARTY VOTE 							
Kerry	16.7%	38.7%	46.4%	68.2%	88.2%		48.77%
Bush	83.3%	61.3%	53.6%	31.8%	11.8%		51.23%
Votes (mm)							
Kerry 	0.65	15.53	24.26	10.89	7.68		59.01
Bush	3.23	24.64	28.02	5.08	1.03		61.99
Diff	-2.58	-9.11	-3.76	5.82	6.65		-2.98

EXIT POLL							
Kerry	21.7%	41.7%	50.7%	71.2%	88.0%		52.16%
Bush	78.3%	58.3%	49.3%	28.8%	12.0%		47.84%
Votes (mm)							
Kerry 	0.84	16.76	26.48	11.37	7.67		63.11
Bush	3.03	23.41	25.79	4.61	1.04		57.89
Diff	-2.19	-6.66	0.68	6.76	6.63		5.22

WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.22	1.09	1.16	1.11	1.00		1.12
AvgDev	9%	-3%	4%	-1%	-11%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	5	155	318	119	66		663
Pct	12.37%	37.40%	58.85%	72.04%	72.98%		53.0%
							
Kerry	1	65	161	85	58		369
Pct	22%	42%	51%	71%	88%		52.16%
Bush	4	90	157	34	8		293
Pct	78%	58%	49%	29%	12%		47.84%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	35	260	222	46	24		587
Pct	87.63%	62.60%	41.15%	27.96%	27.02%		47.0%
							
Kerry	6	96	90	28	22		240
Pct	16%	37%	40%	61%	89%		44.5%
Bush	29	164	133	18	3		347
Pct	84%	63%	60%	39%	11%		55.5%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	7	160	251	113	79		610
Pct	16.7%	38.7%	46.4%	68.2%	88.2%		48.77%
Bush	33	255	289	52	11		640
Pct	83.3%	61.3%	53.6%	31.8%	11.8%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-66.6%	-22.7%	-7.2%	36.4%	76.4%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-56.6%	-16.6%	1.3%	42.3%	76.1%		4.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 10:00 PM
Response to Reply #50
51. Nice collaboration TIA and OTOH! Kick!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-08-05 01:02 AM
Response to Reply #51
52. THE GRAPHS
Kerry Vote vs. WPE
Image

Kerry Exit Poll vs. Actual Votes
Image


Sensitivity to Weighted Average Response
Image


Alpha vs. WPE
Image


Kerry Vote vs. Poll
Image


Kerry Percent Vote Deviation vs. WPE
Image


Kerry Poll vs. WPE
Image






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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 12:52 PM
Response to Original message
30. for what it's worth
the USCV folks may or may not read this board. it would be advised to send things like this directly to them.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 01:13 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. Baiman (RonB) is with USCV. He replied. n/t
Edited on Mon Jun-06-05 01:14 PM by TruthIsAll
.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
38. KICK
:kick:
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-08-05 04:34 PM
Response to Original message
53. Another **KICK** for takers
:kick:
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-08-05 05:50 PM
Response to Original message
54. Let's once again remember who the players are.
These aren't mere men and women.....

http://www.prisonplanet.tv/audio/091204hilton.htm

They helped stage and allow 9/11 to happen, and have committed mass crimes and treason. Their lackies including Thomas Noe stole the election after 45% of the religious whackjobs marched for Bush. :mad: :mad:
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-08-05 09:54 PM
Response to Reply #54
56. Vile Politics Makes Grotesque Bedfellows
I always try to remind myself of your points here. We are not dealing with a normal political rival or enemy. We are dealing with people who align themselves with monsters.

Contact the DNC and Give 'em Hell About NOT Acting on Election Fraud

NEW LEADERS FOR A NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY
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