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Non-linear optimization (Excel "Solver") proves rBr is Null and Void

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-31-05 01:21 AM
Original message
Non-linear optimization (Excel "Solver") proves rBr is Null and Void
Edited on Tue May-31-05 01:41 AM by TruthIsAll
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-31-05 01:29 AM
Response to Original message
1. Looks vaguely familiar. nt
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-31-05 02:02 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Bill, how Delphic. Could you elaborate. I'm curious....and I need an
excuse to stay up even later than I'm staying up.

:hi:
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-31-05 11:37 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Hope you got some sleep.
I just meant that Febble, USCV and some others have been playing around with this stuff too. 1250 precincts distributed the way Mitofsky said back in Jan., and how to simulate the outcomes, slopes, fraud, etc.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 12:33 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. No but I'm going to get some now. This is interesting since it's
the same problem but with a different outcome. In this case, "the work is shown."

Nite
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 01:26 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Optimizations and response rates
Edited on Wed Jun-01-05 01:32 AM by TruthIsAll
Kerry wins 7 of 8 optimizations


1250	Precincts					
	High Bush		High Kerry	
	40	415	540	165	90	
	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%	
						
Optimize    Goal    Kerry Bush	Constraints (53% avg
response)		
1	Max Bush	50.30%	49.70%			
2	Max Kerry	50.72%	49.28%			
3	Min Bush	71.61%	28.39%			
4	Min Kerry	50.30%	49.70%			
5	Max Kerry	54.97%	45.03%<  Response [30%,70%]		
6	Max Bush	50.35%	49.65%<  Response [30%,70%]		
						
						

	10%	30%	50%	70%	90%	

      	  Goal	Kerry	Bush	Constraints 
7	Max Kerry	54.19%	45.81%<  Response [30%,70%]		
8	Max Bush	48.08%	51.92%<  Response [30%,70%]		
						
OPT 1						
Kerry	50.30%					
Bush	49.70%	<maximize				

		HighBush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%

0.53	Resp	89.70%	57.35%	50.88%	46.57%	41.17%
1.06	alpha	1.79	1.15	1.02	0.93	0.82
662	Resp	36	238	275	77	37
329	K Resp 	13	109	140	43	24
333	B Resp	23	129	135	34	13
300	K Ref	1	71	133	53	42
288	B Ref 	3	106	133	35	11
						
629	TotalK 	14	180	272	96	67
621	TotalB 	26	235	268	69	23
49.70%B Pct%	65.76%	56.63%	49.55%	41.92%	25.81%
49.52%B Exit%	64.12%	54.12%	49.12%	44.12%	34.12%
0.18%	WPE	1.64%	2.51%	0.43%	-2.20%	-8.31%
						
						

OPT 2						
Kerry	50.72%	<maximize				
Bush	49.28%					
		HighBush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%
0.53	Resp	50.30%	53.11%	54.04%	51.24%	50.67%
1.06	alpha	1.01	1.06	1.08	1.02	1.01
663	Resp	20	220	292	85	46
344	K Resp 	4	94	158	52	37
318	B Resp	16	127	134	33	9
290	K Ref	4	78	124	48	36
298	B Ref	16	117	124	32	9
						
634	TotalK 8	171	282	100	72
616	TotalB 32	244	258	65	18
49.28%B Pct%	79.9%	58.7%	47.8%	39.2%	19.5%
47.95%B Exit%	79.9%	57.5%	46.0%	38.5%	18.9%
1.33%	WPE	0.1%	1.2%	1.9%	0.7%	0.5%


OPT 3						
Kerry	71.61%					
Bush	28.39%	<minimize				
		HighBush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%
0.53	Resp	100.0%	6.3%	100.0%	0.0%	62.5%
1.06	alpha	2	0.127	2	0	1.25000001
663	Resp	40	26	540	0	56
614	K Resp 	16	1	540	0	56
49	B Resp	24	25	0	0	0
281	K Ref	0	156	0	99	27
306	B Ref	0	233	0	66	7
						
895	TotalK 16	157	540	99	83
355	TotalB 24	258	0	66	7
28.39%B Pct%	60.00%	62.21%	0.00%	40.00%	7.50%
	B Exit%	60.00%	94.94%	0.00%	#DIV/0!	0.00%
	WPE	0.00%	-32.73%	0.00%	#DIV/0!	7.50%
						
OPT 4						
Kerry	50.30%	<minimize				
Bush	49.70%					
		HighBush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.8
0.53	Resp	89.7%	57.3%	50.9%	46.6%	41.2%
1.06	alpha	1.79	1.15	1.02	0.93	0.82
662	Resp	36	238	275	77	37
329	K Resp 	13	109	140	43	24
333	B Resp	23	129	135	34	13
300	K Ref	1	71	133	53	42
288	B Ref	3	106	133	35	11
						
629	TotalK 14	180	272	96	67
621	TotalB 26	235	268	69	23
	B Pct%	65.8%	56.6%	49.6%	41.9%	25.8%
	B Exit%	64.1%	54.1%	49.1%	44.1%	34.1%
	WPE	1.6%	2.5%	0.4%	-2.2%	-8.3%

						
						

OPT 5						
Kerry	54.97%	< maximize; Response rates [30%,70%]				
Bush	45.03%					
		High Bush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%
0.53	Resp	30.0%	30.0%	70.0%	55.6%	62.5%
1.06	alpha	0.60	0.60	1.40	1.11	1.25
663	Resp	12	125	378	92	56
413	K Resp 	1	30	265	61	56
249	B Resp	11	95	113	31	0
274	K Ref	6	116	81	44	27
314	B Ref	22	174	81	29	7
						
687	TotalK 7	146	346	105	83
563	TotalB 33	269	194	60	7
	B Pct%	82.4%	64.8%	36.0%	36.3%	7.5%
	B Exit%	88.0%	76.0%	30.0%	33.3%	0.0%
	WPE	-5.6%	-11.2%	6.0%	3.0%	7.5%


OPT 6						
Kerry	50.35%					
Bush	49.65%	< maximize; Response rates [30%,70%]				
		High Bush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%
0.53	Resp	70.0%	58.1%	51.5%	47.1%	41.6%
1.06	alpha	1.40	1.16	1.03	0.94	0.83
663	Resp	28	241	278	78	37
332	K Resp 	8	112	143	44	25
330	B Resp	20	129	135	34	13
297	K Ref	2	69	131	52	42
290	B Ref	10	104	131	35	11
						
629	TotalK 10	182	274	96	67
621	TotalB 30	233	266	69	23
	B Pct%	74.4%	56.2%	49.2%	41.6%	25.6%
	B Exit%	72.0%	53.5%	48.5%	43.5%	33.5%
	WPE	2.4%	2.7%	0.7%	-1.8%	-7.9%

OPT 7						
Kerry	54.19%	< maximize; Response rates [30%,70%]			
Bush	45.81%					
		High Bush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	10%	30%	50%	70%	90%
0.53	Resp	30.0%	30.0%	66.8%	70.0%	55.6%
1.06	alpha	0.60	0.60	1.34	1.40	1.11
662	Resp	12	125	360	116	50
427	K Resp 	1	22	241	113	50
236	B Resp	11	102	120	2	0
250	K Ref	3	87	90	35	36
337	B Ref	25	203	90	15	4
						
677	TotalK 4	110	330	148	86
573	TotalB 36	305	210	17	4
	B Pct%	91.2%	73.6%	38.8%	10.4%	4.4%
	B Exit%	94.0%	82.0%	33.2%	2.0%	0.0%
	WPE	-2.8%	-8.4%	5.6%	8.4%	4.4%

						
						
OPT 8		Requires high Bush response in Kerry precincts				
Kerry	48.08%					
Bush	51.92%	< maximize; Response rates [30%,70%]				
		High Bush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	10%	30%	50%	70%	90%
0.53	Resp	70.0%	64.5%	48.7%	41.9%	38.2%
1.06	alpha	1.40	1.29	0.97	0.84	0.76
663	Resp	28	268	263	69	34
300	K Resp 	4	104	128	41	24
362	B Resp	24	164	135	29	11
301	K Ref	1	44	138	67	50
287	B Ref	11	103	138	29	6
						
601	TotalK 5	148	267	108	74
649	TotalB 35	267	273	57	16
	B Pct%	87.2%	64.4%	50.6%	34.7%	18.1%
	B Exit%	86.0%	61.3%	51.3%	41.3%	31.3%
	WPE	1.2%	3.1%	-0.7%	-6.5%	-13.2%

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