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MUST READ: Census/Exit Poll Gender Vote Probability Analysis

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-28-05 10:57 AM
Original message
MUST READ: Census/Exit Poll Gender Vote Probability Analysis
Edited on Sat May-28-05 11:51 AM by TruthIsAll
           Election Probability Analysis 
                   based on
 Census Gender Voting Statistics and National Exit Poll Pct.

At 12:22am on Nov.3, there were 13047 respondents in the
National exit poll.
Kerry had 54% of the female vote and 47% of the male vote.
Bush had 45% of the female vote and 52% of the male vote.

At 1:25pm, there were 13660 respondents in the final poll.
Kerry had 51% of the female vote and 44% of the male vote.
Bush had 48% of the female vote and 55% of the male vote.

The total vote was recorded as 122.26 million.
But according to the Census, 125.74 million voted.
How did 3.5 million votes go uncounted?

Census Gender statistics matched Exit Poll weights to within
0.5%:
	Female	Male	Votes (000)
Exit	54%	46%	122,267
Census	53.51%	46.49%	125,736
Vote	67,281	58,455	

The tables below give various scenarios  and probabilities
using Census gender voting statistics and the 13047 exit poll
voting percentages.			

Kerry ties Bush when he gets 52.75% of the female vote and
45.75% of the male vote. This is the breakeven (B/E)
scenario.			

The probability that Bush would at least tie in the popular
vote is 0.71% (1 in 140).

The probability that Bush would go from 48.25% in the poll to
his recorded vote of 50.25% is
 1 in	2,083,900.
			
The probability that Bush would go from 47.75% in the poll to
his recorded vote of 50.25% is
 1 in	485,887,839

Kerry Vote scenarios
			13047			B/E				13660
Male		47.5%	47.0%	46.5%	46.0%	45.75% 45.5%	45.0%	44.5%	44.0%
Female		54.5%	54.0%	53.5%	53.0%	52.75%	52.5%	52.0%	51.5%	51.0%

Votes:										
Male		27766	27474	27182	26889	26743	26597	26305	26012	25720
Female		36668	36332	35995	35659	35491	35323	34986	34650	34313
										
Total		64434	63806	63177	62548	62234	61920	61291	60662	60034
Kerry%		51.25%	50.75%	50.25%	49.75%	49.50%	49.25%	48.75%	48.25%	47.75%
										
										


Bush Vote scenarios							
			13047			B/E				13660
Male		51.5%	52.0%	52.5%	53.0%	53.25% 53.5%	54.0%	54.5%	55.0%
Female		44.5%	45.0%	45.5%	46.0%	46.25%	46.5%	47.0%	47.5%	48.0%

Votes:
Male		30104	30397	30689	30981	31127	31273	31566	31858	32150
Female		29940	30276	30613	30949	31117	31286	31622	31958	32295
										
Total		60044	60673	61302	61930	62245	62559	63188	63816	64445
Bush%		47.75%	48.25%	48.75%	49.25%	49.50%	49.75%	50.25%	50.75%	51.25%

Prob		0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.16%	0.71%	2.50%	16.35%	50.00%	83.65%
1 in		486mm	2.1mm	22,577	609	140	40	6	2	1


The Excel formula is:
P = 1-NORMDIST(Bush%, .5075, 0.01/1.96,TRUE)	
										
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-28-05 01:00 PM
Response to Original message
1. Typo: Bush got 50.75%, NOT 50.25% of the recorded vote
Edited on Sat May-28-05 01:05 PM by TruthIsAll
The probabilities are correct.

The sentences should read:
The probability that Bush would go from 48.25% in the poll to
his recorded vote of 50.75% is
1 in 2,083,900.

The probability that Bush would go from 47.75% in the poll to
his recorded vote of 50.75% is
1 in 485,887,839

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-29-05 01:04 AM
Response to Original message
2. CHECK OUT THE TINY CENSUS MOE'S
Edited on Sun May-29-05 01:05 AM by TruthIsAll
The total us vote of 125.736 mm is correct to within 0.30% at
the 90% confidence level (+/377,000 voters).

Note how close the given MoE is to the calculated MoE (within
0.02%)using the formula:
MoE= 1/sqrt(n), where n= population size (000)



				Census		MoE		
U.S.	Total	Pct	Pct	MoE	  (000)	1/sqrt(n)	Diff	
.Total	125,736	58.3	100%	0.30%	377	0.28%	0.02%	
								
.Male	5
       8,455	56.3	46.49%	0.40%	234	0.41%	-0.01%	
.Female
	67,281	60.1	53.51%	0.40%	269	0.39%	0.01%	

.White alone
	106,588	60.3	84.77%	0.30%	320	0.31%	-0.01%	

..White non-Hispanic alone
	99,567	65.8	79.19%	0.30%	299	0.32%	-0.02%	

.Black alone
	14,016	56.3	11.15%	1.10%	154	0.84%	0.26%	
.Asian alone
	2,768	29.8	2.20%	1.70%	47	1.90%	-0.20%	
.Hispanic (of any race)
	7,587	28.0	6.03%	1.20%	91	1.15%	0.05%	

.White alone or in combination
	107,930	60.3	85.84%	0.30%	324	0.30%	0.00%	
..White non-Hispanic alone or in combination
	100,726	65.7	80.11%	0.30%	302	0.32%	-0.02%	
.Black alone or in combination
 	14,324	56.1	11.39%	1.10%	158	0.84%	0.26%	
.Asian alone or in combination
	2,980	30.7	2.37%	1.70%	51	1.83%	-0.13%	
								
Table 4a. Reported Voting and Registration of the Total
Voting-Age Population, by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, for
States: November 2004								
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-30-05 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. KICK
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. Bringing this back.
Guess it fell down the page too far.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-29-05 01:10 AM
Response to Original message
3. KICK IT HARD & Recommend
:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick:

This corelation is simply stunning. Thanks for your work on this.

E gads, WWYS (What Would Yoda Say)
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Amaryllis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-29-05 02:41 PM
Response to Original message
4. kick
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-30-05 12:13 AM
Response to Original message
5. kick.nt
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 01:01 AM
Response to Original message
7. It's my thread party, and I'll kick if I want to
You would kick, too, if it happened to you..
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 12:26 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. Ooops I kick it again
:applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: Go get them TIA,

We are watching you work, get em :popcorn:
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 03:56 AM
Response to Original message
8. Nice job...I was waiting to see the gender weighting explained.
Hmmmm....so were these "reluctant" responders all women? :eyes:

This is truly hilarious.....We have an argument here folks that has been beaten into the ground, mutilated, crucified, and Mitofsky still brings it back to life even though the government basically said "Nope, there is no such thing."

Nothing to see here everyone! :toast:
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. kickin'for all those reluctant women n/t
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