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2-3 MILLION LOST KERRY VOTES? CENSUS: 125.7MM; RECORDED : 122.3MM!

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 03:23 PM
Original message
2-3 MILLION LOST KERRY VOTES? CENSUS: 125.7MM; RECORDED : 122.3MM!
Edited on Thu May-26-05 04:21 PM by TruthIsAll
"The data are from the November 2004 Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Statistics from surveys are subject to sampling and nonsampling error. The CPS estimate of overall turnout (125.7 million) differs from the official turnout, as reported by the Clerk of the House (122.3 million)."

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archiv...

http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/voting/cps...

So 122.3 million voted and a couple of million LIED to the census taker?
And the rest of the discrepancy was due to sampling error?
They would like you to believe that.
The FACT of spoiled votes is never even considered.

It was all due to the Lying Census Responder (lCr).
Right.

Could it simply be that 125.7mm VOTED and 3.4 million votes were NEVER COUNTED, WHICH WE KNOW IS WHAT HAPPENS IN EVERY ELECTION?

Millions of DEMOCRATIC votes are spoiled in minority precincts.
These people thought they voted for Kerry.
You would think the Dems would learn by now.
No, they WANT to lose.

The 2.70% discrepancy (3.4/125.7) is NOT due to people lying.
This explanation is just another canard, a corollary of the fictional Reluctant Bush Responder. Now we have the Lying Census Responder Liepothesis.

The discrepancy dovetails with what we already from the exit polls:
Kerry:63mm + 2mm lost = 65mm (52.0%)
Bush: 58mm + 1mm lost = 59mm (47.2%)
Other: 1mm = 1mm (0.8%)

And that's being conservative.

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MadAsHellNewYorker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 03:25 PM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks for your hard work TIA
Edited on Thu May-26-05 03:53 PM by MadAsHellNewYorker
always shocking that this still is "uncovered"
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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 03:25 PM
Response to Original message
2. kick
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1956 Donating Member (314 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Well isn't this GREAT NEWZ?
Especially since it is by the official "Census Bureau"????? What exactly can we DO with it, though. My God, how big does the mountain have to get???? Where do we go from here?
I appreciate all you do TIA!!!!!!
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 05:47 PM
Response to Original message
4. Hmm... I think it's gonna take a REALLY "fancy function" to explain away..
THIS one! ;)

Good job TIA!
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
5. Great post. Solipsism is our enemy or "SELF"
solipsism A( P ) Pronunciation Key (slp-szm, slp-)
n. Philosophy

1. The theory that the self is the only thing that can be known and verified.
2. The theory or view that the self is the only reality.

Isn't how it works, reality is what I say it is! Why? Because that's what I say. There is nothing out there except questions and endless debate. It does us good to debate ad nauseum because I'm the ultimate judge because I'm my only reality (unless that becomes inconvenient, in which case I can change it anyway because I'm in charge.

"SELF" The Solipsistic Election Lie Function


I know that this is obtuse, but I couldn't resist.

Contact the DNC and Give 'em Hell About Acting on Election Fraud

NEW LEADERS FOR A NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-27-05 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
6. CENSUS MATCHED 13047 EXIT POLL WEIGHTS: GENDER , INCOME, EDUCATION!
Edited on Fri May-27-05 10:08 AM by TruthIsAll
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
November 2004.
		
More proof that the Exit Poll of 13047 Respondents at 12:22am
was accurate. The Census closely matched the weights for the
following demographics:		

Gender	Census	Poll
Male	46.49% 46%
Female	53.51% 54%

Income		
15-30	12.08%	15%
30-50	20.58%	22%
50-75	20.02%	23%
100-150	13.55%	11%

Education							
Some College	30.96%	31%
College Grad	26.84%	26%							

GENDER	Total	Reg	Pct	NoReg	Pct	Voted	CENSUS	13047 POLL	
							100.00%	100%	DIFF
							46.49%	46%	-0.49%
									
MALE									
18+	103,812	66,406	64	37,406	36	58,455	56.3		
18-24	13,960	6,731	48.2	7,229	51.8	5,415	38.8		
25-44	40,618	23,403	57.6	17,215	42.4	19,913	49		
45-64	34,471	24,676	71.6	9,795	28.4	22,520	65.3		
65-74	8,438	6,534	77.4	1,904	22.6	6,119	72.5		
75+	6,325	5,062	80	1,263	20	4,489	71		
									
FEMALE							53.51%	54%	0.49%
18+	111,882	75,663	67.6	36,219	32.4	67,281	60.1		
18-24	13,848	7,603	54.9	6,245	45.1	6,224	44.9		
25-44	41,515	25,967	62.5	15,548	37.5	22,932	55.2		
45-64	36,544	26,984	73.8	9,560	26.2	24,807	67.9		
65-74	9,926	7,591	76.5	2,335	23.5	6,891	69.4		
75+	10,049	7,519	74.8	2,531	25.2	6,426	63.9		
									
									



INCOME	Total	Reg	Pct	Noreg	Pct	Voted	CENSUS	POLL	DIFF


TOTAL	161,927	108,796	67.2	53,131	32.8	97,352		
	

<10k	6,404	3,169	49.5	3,235	50.5	2335	2.73%		
10-15	6,565	3,215	49	3,349	51	2,570	3.00%		
0-15						4,905	5.73%	9%	3.27%
									
15-20	5,859	3,161	53.9	2,698	46.1	2,647	3.09%		
20-30	15,574	9,056	58.1	6,518	41.9	7,690	8.99%		
15-30						10,337	12.08%	15%	2.92%
									
30-40	17,194	10,822	62.9	6,372	37.1	9,334	10.91%		
40-50	13,281	9,274	69.8	4,008	30.2	8,276	9.67%		
30-50						17,610	20.58%	22%	1.42%
									
50-75	30,179	22,824	75.6	7,355	24.4	20,559	24.02%	23%	-1.02%
75-100	18,123	14,389	79.4	3,734	20.6	13,434	15.70%	13%	-2.70%
100-150	14,905	12,250	82.2	2,655	17.8	11,600	13.55%	11%	-2.55%
150+	9,120	7,532	82.6	1,589	17.4	7,137	8.34%	7%	-1.34%
						85,582	100.00%	100.00%	
									
NoRep	24,723	13,105	53	11,617	47	11,771			




EDUC	Total	Reg	Pct	Noreg	Pct	Voted	CENSUS	13047 POLL	


Total	215,694	142,070	65.9	73,624	34.1	125,736	100.00%	100%	DIFF

<9	12,574	4,090	32.5	8,485	67.5	2,971	2.36%		
9-12	20,719	9,479	45.7	11,240	54.3	7,161	5.70%	4%	-1.70%
HSgr	68,545	42,180	61.5	26,365	38.5	35,894	28.55%	22%	-6.55%
Some								
College	58,913	43,434	73.7	15,479	26.3	38,922	30.96%	31%	0.04%
Deg       36,591	28,158	77	8,432	23	26,579	21.14%		
PGr						         7,167	5.70%		
Deg(total)
College						33,748	26.84%	26%	-0.84%
								
PGDeg       18,352	14,730	80.3	3,623	19.7	14,210	11.30%
		
PGrTot						      21,375	17.00%		
									
									
									
									
									
									
									
									
									
									
									
									
									
									
									
									

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-27-05 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Why am I not surprised. That's amazing. Great work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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merkin Donating Member (1 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-27-05 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. A favor
I have been reading posts at DU since November but haven't felt the need to sign up until today. I decided to finally post because I feel that the questions surrounding the legitimacy of the election have finally reached a tipping point (at least in the liberal blogs)and I think that you are uniquely positioned to help in finally getting democrats to face up to the fact that Bush stole the election in November. Could you please start writing diaries at dailykos and discredit all the naysayers there with the same logic, facts and eloquence that you do here?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-28-05 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. Ron Baiman is doing much more at dKos than I ever could.
Edited on Sat May-28-05 12:34 AM by TruthIsAll
The rBr fiction is the LAST strawman to knock out. Ron has done a great job in doing just that. I'll leave the heavy lifting to Ron, Freeman and Simon.

My analyses has been cited by bloggers such as Cannonball and Jim Lampley, among others. They all read DU.

I no longer feel that the need to go toe-to-toe with naysayers. All of their talking points have been decimated and now rBr is dead also.

I appreciate your comments.

Welcome to DU.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-27-05 08:34 PM
Response to Original message
8. kick.nt
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smartvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-27-05 11:09 PM
Response to Original message
9. Yet another "should-be" breakthrough fact. nt
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Phoebe Loosinhouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-28-05 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. We call it "Occam's Norelco". nt.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-28-05 12:16 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. I call it confirmation (Kerry: 50.74%) of the National Exit Poll (50.80%)
Using the gender split Male 46.49%/Female 53.51% and the voting percentages from the 13047 exit poll, the national results are within .06% of Kerry's 50.80% average of 10 demographics.

Total vote (000)
Female:67281
Male :58455

Total: 125736

Kerry:
Female vote: 54% *67281 = 36331
Male vote: 45% *58455 = 27473
Total: 63804 (50.74%)

Bush:
Female vote: 45% *67281 = 30276
Male vote: 52% *58455 = 30396
Total: 60672 (48.25%)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-29-05 01:00 AM
Response to Original message
14. CHECK OUT THE TINY CENSUS MOE'S
Edited on Sun May-29-05 01:07 AM by TruthIsAll
The total vote of 125.736 mm is correct to within 0.30% at the
90% confidence level (+/377,000 voters).

Note how close the given MoE is to the calculated MoE (within
0.02%)using the formula:
MoE= 1/sqrt(n), where n= population size (000)

				Census		MoE		
U.S.	Total	Pct	Pct	MoE	(000)	1/sqrt(n) Diff	
.Total	125,736	 58.3	100%	0.30%	377	0.28%	0.02%	
								
.Male	5
       8,455	56.3	46.49%	0.40%	234	0.41%	-0.01%	
.Female
	67,281	60.1	53.51%	0.40%	269	0.39%	0.01%	

.White alone
	106,588	 60.3	84.77%	0.30%	320	0.31%	-0.01%	

..White non-Hispanic alone
	99,567	 65.8	79.19%	0.30%	299	0.32%	-0.02%	

.Black alone
	14,016	56.3	11.15%	1.10%	154	0.84%	0.26%	
.Asian alone
	2,768	29.8	2.20%	1.70%	47	1.90%	-0.20%	
.Hispanic (of any race)
	7,587	28.0	6.03%	1.20%	91	1.15%	0.05%	

.White alone or in combination
	107,930	 60.3	85.84%	0.30%	324	0.30%	0.00%	
..White non-Hispanic alone or in combination
	100,726	 65.7	80.11%	0.30%	302	0.32%	-0.02%	
.Black alone or in combination
 	14,324	56.1	11.39%	1.10%	158	0.84%	0.26%	
.Asian alone or in combination
	2,980	30.7	2.37%	1.70%	51	1.83%	-0.13%	
								
Table 4a. Reported Voting and Registration of the Total
Voting-Age Population, by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, for
States: November 2004								
 
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 01:01 AM
Response to Original message
15. kick.nt
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Pooka Fey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 02:20 AM
Response to Original message
16. Thank you for all your great work, TIA.
Edited on Wed Jun-01-05 02:24 AM by Pooka Fey
Your tireless work since Nov 2004 (when I came to DU) has been the biggest factor in convincing me that the last sElection was a complete sham. Which led me to start asking a LOT of questions. Questions about Kerry folding on Nov. 3rd well before Ohio was counted, questions about the Iraq war, about why the media was frighteningly silent. These questions led me to start questioning the official 9-11 story, which led me, through threads here on DU, to Peak Oil - which has just wrapped everything up into a nice, neat little bow. For ME. I don't need to convert anybody - I've had enough flame wars in this forum. My attitude now is "do your own research, make up your own mind" - What a long journey I've taken during the last 7 months.

It's been extremely painful; I've been awakened out of the 21st Century American Matrix, but I'm relatively unharmed. Even though I now recognize that I'm eating revolting brown goo every day (i.e.: living under a totalitarian government) rather than being artificially programmed by the media to PERCEIVE that I'm eating fillet mignon and a variety of delicious delicacies (i.e.: living in a democracy with a constitutional government); it's OK.

I'd rather live in reality any day. The most difficult part is getting through work days having to still function within the American Matrix.

TIA you rock. :headbang:
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
17. kick.nt
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torque Donating Member (167 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 01:31 PM
Response to Original message
18. yup, yup and yup n/t
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donkeyotay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 04:24 PM
Response to Original message
19. Oh no! Not the lCr ! LOL
Good work TIA. You have worked so tirelessly on this issue, and this is a great catch.

Thank you.

:applause: :patriot:
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kobeisguilty Donating Member (75 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
20. Keep in mind
"Comparatbility of Data - Data obtained from the CPS and other sources are not entirely comparable. This results from differences in interviewer training and experience and in differing survey processes. This is an example of nonsampling variability not reflected in the standard errors. Therefore, caution should be used when comparing results from different sources."

"A Nonsampling Error Warning - Since the full extent of the nonsampling error is unknown, one should be particularly careful when interpreting results based on small differences between estimates. Even a small amount of nonsampling error can cause a borderline difference to appear significant or not, thus distorting a seemingly valid hypothesis test. Caution should also be used when interpreting results based on a relatively small number of cases.

- http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/voting/cps2004...

pg.5
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Keep in mind: The Census MoE's in post # 14...
0.30%

0.30%

0.30%

0.30%
0.30%

0.30%
0.30%

0.30%
0.30%

0.30%
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kobeisguilty Donating Member (75 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. i'm sorry.
what was that margin of error again?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. 0.30%. Not me, the Census said it. The 1/sqrt(n) calc confirms it.
.
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kobeisguilty Donating Member (75 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. that's what i'm asking
link to the stated MOE in the report
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kobeisguilty Donating Member (75 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. also
not saying you're wrong, can you just provide a hyperlink or page # of where it says .30?
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-01-05 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #23
27. Did you read my original post?
Edited on Wed Jun-01-05 08:34 PM by TruthIsAll
If so, you would have seen that I posted two links to the census.
Go to the second link and you will find what you are looking for.
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