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A new Poly Sci Statistic:The sBr (Shy Bush Responder) differential

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 01:29 AM
Original message
A new Poly Sci Statistic:The sBr (Shy Bush Responder) differential
Edited on Tue May-24-05 02:11 AM by TruthIsAll
It's the difference in Bush support between Exit Poll
Responders and Refusers, assuming an average 53% response
rate, as per Mitofsky's report.

The sBr differential effect explains the discrepancies between
many state exit polls and recorded votes. It's primarily an
Eastern Time Zone phenomenon, and is quite prevalent in states
such as NY, OH, PA, FL and Kerry's home state of
Massachusetts. 

The sBr differential syndrome effect will soon be included as
mandatory subject (fecal) matter in a number of Political
Science departments, including Bob Jones and Harvard. 

The sBr syndrome will also be incorporated in new Psychology
research studies. The affliction was first noticed by Mitofsky
in 1992. He suggested sBr in order to explain the surprising
Bush NH primary win over Buchanan, in which the final vote
count deviated sharply from the exit poll.

Contrary to sBr, aggressive behavior patterns thrive in a few
Midwestern states such as Kansas, North Dakota and Bush's home
state of Texas.

ST  sBr

VT 11.4%
NY 11.0%
NH 10.2%
DE 9.8%
SC 9.5%

NE 8.5%
AL 8.5%
AK 8.4%
MA 8.0%
RI 8.0%

NC 7.7%
OH 7.0%
MS 7.0%
PA 7.0%
CT 6.9%

NJ 6.4%
UT 6.1%
MN 6.1%
ID 5.6%
FL 5.2%

WY 5.0%
VA 4.9%
AR 4.7%
IL 4.5%
NV 4.2%

NM 4.1%
LA 4.0%
CO 3.7%
WV 3.7%
AZ 3.3%

GA 3.3%
IN 3.2%
WA 3.1%
MO 2.4%
IA 2.4%

DC 2.1%
MI 1.7%
MD 1.7%
KY 1.6%
CA 1.1%

ME 0.8%
OK 0.6%
WI 0.0%
MT -0.5%
OR -1.6%

HI -2.2%
TN -3.5%
TX -3.5%
SD -3.6%
KS -5.0%

ND -5.3%


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WatchWhatISay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 01:40 AM
Response to Original message
1. you lost me
:shrug:
:freak:
:boring:
:nuke:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 01:48 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Here are the numbers
Edited on Tue May-24-05 01:51 AM by TruthIsAll
*********************************************************
Percent of Shy Bush Responders Required to Match Vote
Count						
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%	              56%		
Region	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	1in	44%      Z  1in

EAST	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	47.42%	47.87%	9.53	NC	48.38%	10.18	NC
MIDW	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	52.92%	53.13%	4.74	915K	53.36%	5.06	4,730,234
SOUTH	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	59.09%	59.27%	4.31	123K	59.48%	4.61	488,097
WEST	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	50.07%	50.19%	2.64	244	50.32%	2.82	422

********************************************************											
Percent Deviation from Exit Poll Required to Match Bush Vote
Count 										
EAST	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	7.02%	7.47%	9.53	NC	7.98%	10.18	NC
MIDW	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	3.20%	3.40%	4.74	915K	3.63%	5.06	4,730,234
SOUTH	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	2.84%	3.02%	4.31	123K	3.23%	4.61	488,097
WEST	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	1.87%	1.99%	2.64	244	2.13%	2.82	422

*********************************************************

		
					Exit Poll Responders/Refusers						
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
EAST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

CT	872	3.27%	41.53%	44.76%	6.47%	6.89%	2.11	1.76%	7.36%	2.25	1.22%
DC	795	1.92%	8.37%	9.37%	2.00%	2.13%	1.11	13.43%	2.27%	1.18	11.86%
DE	770	3.48%	41.56%	46.18%	9.24%	9.83%	2.83	0.24%	10.50%	3.02	0.13%
MA	889	3.10%	33.54%	37.30%	7.52%	8.00%	2.58	0.50%	8.55%	2.75	0.29%
MD	1000	3.07%	42.96%	43.75%	1.58%	1.68%	0.55	29.21%	1.79%	0.58	27.95%

ME	1968	2.20%	45.17%	45.52%	0.71%	0.76%	0.34	36.56%	0.81%	0.37	35.68%
NH	1849	2.27%	44.51%	49.32%	9.62%	10.24%	4.52	0.00%	10.93%	4.83	0.00%
NJ	1520	2.49%	43.87%	46.87%	6.00%	6.38%	2.56	0.53%	6.82%	2.73	0.31%
NY	1452	2.47%	36.04%	41.21%	10.34%	11.00%	4.46	0.00%	11.75%	4.76	0.00%
PA	1930	2.22%	45.59%	48.87%	6.56%	6.97%	3.14	0.08%	7.45%	3.35	0.04%

RI	809	3.30%	35.76%	39.52%	7.51%	7.99%	2.42	0.78%	8.53%	2.58	0.49%
VT	685	3.56%	34.31%	39.66%	10.70%	11.38%	3.20	0.07%	12.16%	3.42	0.03%
WV	1722	2.35%	54.81%	56.52%	3.43%	3.65%	1.55	6.01%	3.90%	1.66	4.85%

TOTAL	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	7.02%	7.47%	9.53	0.00%	7.98%	10.18	0.00%

*********************************************************

	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
MIDW	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

IA	2502	1.96%	49.33%	50.46%	2.26%	2.40%	1.23	11.01%	2.57%	1.31	9.5%
IL	1392	2.60%	42.87%	45.01%	4.28%	4.55%	1.75	4.01%	4.86%	1.87	3.1%
IN	926	3.17%	59.03%	60.54%	3.03%	3.22%	1.02	15.46%	3.44%	1.09	13.9%
KS	654	3.65%	65.40%	63.03%	-4.74%	-5.04%	-1.38	8.35%	-5.38%	-1.48	7.0%
MI	2452	1.98%	47.45%	48.27%	1.63%	1.74%	0.88	18.96%	1.86%	0.94	17.4%

MN	2178	2.09%	45.39%	48.24%	5.70%	6.06%	2.90	0.19%	6.47%	3.10	0.1%
MO	2158	2.11%	52.53%	53.67%	2.30%	2.44%	1.16	12.32%	2.61%	1.24	10.8%
ND	649	3.63%	66.42%	63.91%	-5.02%	-5.34%	-1.47	7.09%	-5.70%	-1.57	5.8%
NE	785	3.37%	63.46%	67.47%	8.02%	8.53%	2.53	0.57%	9.11%	2.70	0.3%
OH	1963	2.21%	47.94%	51.25%	6.62%	7.04%	3.19	0.07%	7.53%	3.40	0.0%

SD	1495	2.45%	62.58%	60.91%	-3.34%	-3.56%	-1.45	7.36%	-3.80%	-1.55	6.1%
WI	2223	2.08%	49.79%	49.80%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02	49.39%	0.03%	0.02	49.3%

TOTAL	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	3.20%	3.40%	4.74	0.0001%	3.63%	5.06	0.0%
							1 in	915,572 1 in 4,730,234

*********************************************************

	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
SOUTH	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

AL	730	3.57%	58.92%	62.92%	8.00%	8.51%	2.39	0.85%	9.10%	2.55	0.5%
AR	1402	2.61%	53.07%	55.26%	4.38%	4.66%	1.78	3.72%	4.98%	1.91	2.8%
FL	2846	1.84%	50.07%	52.53%	4.92%	5.24%	2.85	0.22%	5.59%	3.04	0.1%
GA	1536	2.48%	56.89%	58.42%	3.06%	3.25%	1.31	9.46%	3.47%	1.40	8.0%
KY	1034	3.00%	59.25%	60.01%	1.52%	1.62%	0.54	29.44%	1.73%	0.58	28.2%

LA	1669	2.38%	55.51%	57.37%	3.74%	3.98%	1.67	4.77%	4.25%	1.78	3.7%
MS	798	3.44%	56.80%	60.09%	6.59%	7.01%	2.04	2.06%	7.49%	2.18	1.5%
NC	2167	2.10%	52.69%	56.29%	7.19%	7.65%	3.64	0.01%	8.17%	3.89	0.0%
OK	1539	2.38%	65.27%	65.56%	0.58%	0.61%	0.26	39.80%	0.66%	0.28	39.1%
SC	1735	2.34%	54.22%	58.70%	8.96%	9.53%	4.07	0.00%	10.18%	4.34	0.0%

TN	1774	2.29%	58.85%	57.22%	-3.25%	-3.46%	-1.51	6.53%	-3.70%	-1.61	5.3%
TX	1671	2.31%	63.16%	61.51%	-3.30%	-3.51%	-1.52	6.43%	-3.75%	-1.62	5.2%
VA	1431	2.59%	52.04%	54.35%	4.62%	4.91%	1.90	2.88%	5.25%	2.03	2.1%

TOTAL	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	2.84%	3.02%	4.31	0.0008%	3.23%	4.61	0.0%
							1 in	123,840	  1 in 488,097

*********************************************************

	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
WEST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

AK	910	3.18%	59.86%	63.83%	7.94%	8.45%	2.65	0.40%	9.02%	2.83	0.2%
AZ	1859	2.27%	53.40%	54.97%	3.14%	3.34%	1.47	7.05%	3.57%	1.57	5.8%
CA	1919	2.22%	44.27%	44.79%	1.05%	1.12%	0.50	30.73%	1.20%	0.54	29.5%
CO	2515	1.95%	50.93%	52.65%	3.45%	3.67%	1.88	3.03%	3.92%	2.00	2.3%
HI	499	4.38%	46.68%	45.63%	-2.11%	-2.24%	-0.51	30.44%	-2.39%	-0.55	29.2%

ID	559	3.91%	66.67%	69.29%	5.25%	5.59%	1.43	7.64%	5.97%	1.53	6.3%
MT	640	3.78%	60.72%	60.50%	-0.45%	-0.47%	-0.13	45.01%	-0.51%	-0.13	44.7%
NM	1951	2.22%	48.66%	50.58%	3.85%	4.10%	1.85	3.23%	4.38%	1.97	2.4%
NV	2116	2.13%	49.34%	51.33%	3.99%	4.24%	1.99	2.32%	4.53%	2.13	1.7%
OR	1064	3.00%	48.78%	48.03%	-1.49%	-1.59%	-0.53	29.86%	-1.70%	-0.56	28.6%

UT	798	3.18%	70.07%	72.94%	5.74%	6.10%	1.92	2.74%	6.52%	2.05	2.0%
WA	2123	2.12%	44.93%	46.40%	2.94%	3.12%	1.48	7.00%	3.34%	1.58	5.7%
WY	684	3.50%	67.93%	70.30%	4.74%	5.04%	1.44	7.49%	5.38%	1.54	6.2%

TOTAL	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	1.87%	1.99%	2.64	0.41%	2.13%	2.82	0.2%
						      1 in	244	    1 in	422
									
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #3
12. KICK for an interesting gathering of dynamic minds!
:think:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 01:46 AM
Response to Original message
2. THE GRAPH
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 02:05 AM
Response to Original message
4. Can you explain it in simple terms for the math-challenged among us?
Thanks.
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 02:26 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Just think, justified "sarcasm" as you read the text intro:
All those numbers are there just to "back up" the total absurdity of the rBr scam they are trying to foist on us.

Think about how inconsistent and "convenient" the rBr "phenomena" is (examples: It mainly is and ET zone thing??? It was "invented" to cover another Bushs' inconsistent (with the exit polls) win???)

OK... just think of the "Emperor has no Clothes" story, and you got it. ;)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 02:27 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. A real quick explanation of sBr...
Edited on Tue May-24-05 02:37 AM by TruthIsAll

Assume
1)In state X, 1000 responded to the exit poll and 1000 refused to be interviewed, a 50% response rate for simplicity.

2)Bush received 47% of the 1000 in the exit poll and 52% in the vote.

Problem:
What percentage of the 1000 did he need of those who refused to be polled in order to match his 52% vote?

Solution:
We know that 52% of 2000 is 1040.
Bush got 47% or 470 of the 1000 who responded.
So he needed 570 = 1040-470 of the 1000 refusers (57%).

Therefore, sBr = 10% = 57% - 47%, the difference between his refusal and responder percentages.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 02:46 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. Okay. I see. Thanks again. n/t
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 02:12 AM
Response to Original message
5. try
the ratio between Kerry response rate (Kerry responses/Kerry votes) and Bush response rate (Bush responses/Bush votes). Then take the arctangent of the ratio and subtract the arctangent of 1.

You should end up with a measure of the amount by which the poll differs from the count, where 0 is no difference, negative is an under-count of Bush votes (or over-sampling of Bush voters) and positive is an undercount of Kerry votes (or an under-sampling of Bush voters). OTOH suggested the arctan, and it works brilliantly.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 02:28 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. A KISS for you, Febble n/t
/
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 02:46 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Make it two.
Edited on Tue May-24-05 02:48 AM by Carolab
You guys make me feel very stupid.
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 03:15 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. No, I'm serious
try it.
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