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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 09:04 PM
Original message
GRAPH: Required Bush %incr from state exit poll responders to refusers...
Edited on Mon May-23-05 09:51 PM by TruthIsAll
in order to match his recorded vote.

The rBrs are a nationwide phenomenon.

The following graph shows that the shy Bush voters are mostly in the East (VT, NY, NH, MA, OH, PA, FL) and the most aggressive are in the Midwest (TX, KS, SD, ND).

Yes, they refused to speak to the exit pollsters.
Bush got them to vote for him.
That's all that counts.

You can't blame them.
If you saw all those chatty Democrats lining up with baited breath to fill out the survey forms, you probably wouldn't either.

And you're a Democrat.

<SARCASM OFF> ...I didn't think I would have to put this in but after reading post # 2, I had to do it.

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GetTheRightVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 09:06 PM
Response to Original message
1. I do not believe for one second * won, especially not because of shyness
He stole the election with the help of the Repubs and criminal vote controlling corporations, end of story.

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texpatriot2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 01:43 PM
Response to Reply #1
14. Exactly!!!!!!!!!! I agree. He stole it again. n/t
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applegrove Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 09:14 PM
Response to Original message
2. I wouldn't be surprised if some freepers were given marching orders
to refuse to be polled. That would make the democrats relax half way through the day..and stay home.

To me - there is just not enough of a difference in the polls and the outcome to say it was anything but the usual electoral shenanigans. Which should be made illegal..even though i know they already are. I look forward to Carter's report.

We may have had the same game-playing going on in Quebec during the last Quebec Independence vote in 1995. There were rumblings at the time that many ballots were trashed even though the intent of the voter was still clear. Who knows. Politics is a dirty game to some people.

It should be illegal to not follow the 'spirit' of the law during elections.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 09:53 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. That is a brilliant logical conclusion....
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applegrove Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:20 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. But we don't know. Redoing stats is not the way to get at the truth.
Edited on Mon May-23-05 11:24 PM by applegrove
I know hearts & minds were stolen. That all the information i need. That is where the fight has to be. Because if people vote truly what is in their best interest instead of what they are sold.. the election will not be close enough to be stolen with games on election day.

Okay - you were being sarcastic there - right! That was the whole point of your thread. I just haven't come up against logic in this discussion very often. Mostly sadness, despair and unbelief. Which are all just a legit as logic in the first few months after a travesty like Bush getting re-elected. So I was taking it very slowly.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Your old refrain "I know hearts & minds were stolen"
is pure fiction.

Bush stole VOTES, not hearts and minds.

You live in your own fantasy world.
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applegrove Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:59 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Isn't that what most people on the DU spend their time talking about?
Why the freepers vote the way they do. Wedge issues. Smoke & mirrors. Propaganda. Hypocrisy. Cabals at the top who really are not with the religious or the rural votes they claim to represent.

Isn't hearts and minds really what the DU talks about .. 90% of the time?

I'm thinking it is pretty real.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 08:20 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. There are a lot of things that could be "pretty real," applegrove.
Fear of brainwashed, zombified, goose-stepping,, witch-burning, Bible-spouting, Bushite "pod people" can paralyze the parts of the brain that deal with numbers.

I've been blogging about this for some time. The "pod people" are a minority--always have been, always will be. They are not "on the rise," as Karl Rove and his illusionist "news" media would have us believe. And the people who cynically manipulate them will ever cheat and lie their way into power because their ideas are not persuasive and they can never gain power in legitimate ways.

It is the MAJORITY--the people who voted for Kerry, and/or to oust the Bush Cartel--that we need to be speaking to about election fraud and election reform.

Put aside fear of the "pod people." Awaken your mathematical brain parts. Look at the numbers. And get busy. Talk to KERRY voters! We are the majority. We are the people who thought for ourselves in the last election and who got cheated out of our victory--the victory of reason and common sense and progress; the victory of the Enlightenment!
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applegrove Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 01:25 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. I'm with you on every point.. except the diebold conspiracy. For
Edited on Tue May-24-05 01:49 PM by applegrove
sure democrats (I didn't vote for Kerry because I am Canadian)would have won if Rove had not gone after Kerry's strengths (his war record as a fighter & a patriot). That is what Rove always does. He attacks the strengths of his 'enemies' and then he goes gay.

Again and again.

So really - we are no far apart (the diebold conspiracists & I). I'm just going to have to go on evidence. I always do. And did you not notice that the voting rate was something ridiculous like 60%? All the fundies showed up to vote. I think we have work to do in terms of getting people to show up to vote. That likely is one other way Kerry could have won. And now thankfully Dean is working his ass off on that.

I just don't see how narrowing one's focus onto a bunch of machines when there are a myriad of other ways the election could & was lost and that is the only way to go.

I've been through the ringer with horrid manipulators before..and if you step back and look at the big picture (and get out of shock and focusing on details so can never say anything about them) there is just more and more proof of nefariousness and game playing and their evilness. In a way 'diebold' protects people because it lets them think that all they have to do is find one thing and then Bush is toast and out of power tomorrow. Reality is a whole lot more horrible than that: we have to put up with the freak getting a win for 4 more years. And there is no way out. And he will try to dismantle your country for all his Kool-aid drinking friends and political operatives.

I would grieve. I would encourage those around us to also grieve. So we can step back and say "elections.. oh my we have work to do so they don't steal another with their vetting only black felons, intimidation by requesting IDs, redistricting, attacking or coveting our best Democratic leaders (strengths), spewing lies as reality and smoke and mirrors. That is were the horrors are. Where we have proof of them. Just how apathetic do you think Karl Rove intends democratic voters to be the next time there is an election? Why there will be SS this summer. Then Tax reform (they may throw out income taxes in favor of less progressive sales taxes) in September. Then every quarter there will be some other monstrosity to face. So we all better step back and grieve. Cry. And look at the big picture and pick the battles you fight rather than having them control you. Or the people who want a 'quick out' will keep getting hurt like it is the first time. And so will their friends on these boards who are encourage to not move on.

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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 01:58 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. I'm sorry applegrove, but this is not in any way the case of "move on"...
You believe so strongly in your lessons that the religious right really pulled off an incredible get out the vote effort, that you fail to see the bigger and much more threatening picture.

They do in fact control the voting process, and no amount of denial is going to push that away. You move on and let it fall at your own peril--And the numbers continue to blow back in your face.

"They audited and verified, one by one, the 895 votes in the precinct and found: 12 innocent and unsuspecting voters who had their names duplicated on the roster and their votes for Bush counted twice. Twenty-two "undervotes" where the machine had failed to register a preference for president, and these had been dutifully and meticulously converted to 22 votes for Bush.

The "Republican" and "Democratic" co-directors of the polling place were a local fundamentalist preacher and his wife. Thirty-nine of their parishioners from another precinct had cast provisional ballots, which were (illegally) converted to regular ballots and passed through, all 39 for Bush.

I met Richard Hayes Phillips, a geologist from New Hampshire who was invited to Ohio to study the integrity of the vote, and realized that a complete inventory of lost and miscounted votes was needed. To date, Phillips has analyzed 15 of Ohio's 88 counties, and by his most conservative estimate has found 101,000 uncounted Kerry votes - 136,000 is the margin by which Bush officially defeated Kerry.

I heard Clint Curtis talk about working in 2001 as a programmer for Yang Enterprises in Florida. He was assigned to a meeting with State Senate Speaker Tom Feeney, who asked to have a program written into the software that controls voting machines so that the totals could be manipulated without leaving a trace. Curtis, the whistleblower, is now unemployed. Feeney, the politician, is now the U.S. representative from Florida's 24th Congressional district."

Unfortunately the radical right's overwhelming campaign is invisible, the radical right committed fraud. It committed fraud because it was again, just like 2002 and previous years the only way it could get its voice heard. It's been doing that for some time and has reigns over the voting process, will you sit in denial and let it continue to fall? Your motive "Just Get Over It" rings as true in 1940 when the Soviet Union and its bridges collapsed itself. There is no getting over or denying what was involved here.

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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. applegrove, you are still not looking at the numbers, and I urge you... do so. I agree that it is very important that we call this right, as to our strategy in dealing with these fascists. But if you can tell me how Kerry lost, when...

...the Democrats had a blowout success in new voter registration in 2004 (nearly 60/40)

....most new voters voted for Kerry (reg. nearly 60%) (a new voter group comprised of immigrants, the poor, and the young)

...90% of Gore voters voted for Kerry (with switch voters on both sides being a wash)

...65% of independent voters voted for Kerry

...75% of Nader voters voted for Kerry

...Bush had his Republican base from 2000 (as Kerry had Gore's) and MUCH SMALLER percentages than Kerry did of ALL of these "margin of victory" voting groups

...the pre-election polls were trending to Kerry or predicting a Kerry win

...the election day exit polls gave it to Kerry by 3% (even AFTER all the vote suppression and purges of black voters)

...and all opinion polls show huge disapproval of all Bush's policies, up in the 60% to 70% range, and unprecedented lack of approval of Bush, over a long period of time (and some of his worst approval ratings on election day and on his inauguration day),

...then I might begin to agree with you.

But, given the above statistics, and the inherent invalidity of the election system (Wally O'Dell & buds counting all our votes in secret--I mean, come on...), it seems to me that the best STRATEGY is FIRST OF ALL to get the election system back into the public venue.

It is not the be-all and the end-all. Of course not! That's a silly straw man. But we can do NOTHING else to re-establish AND to reform our democracy, until we've salvaged our right to vote.

We can't do anything about voter IDs. We can't do anything about purges of black voters. We can't do anything about the looting of Social Security. We can't do anything about packing of the courts with Bush "pod people." We can't do anything about the news monopolies and the vast corruption of our political life. We can't do anything about anything without a secure voting system that produces elected officials who represent the will of the majority.

This would be a priority item WHETHER OR NOT Kerry won. But, given the evidence that he did win, it becomes priority no.1.

It is NOT a distraction. It is fundamental.


You think the majority of voters bought Rove's crap about Kerry's military service? I don't think they did. They haven't bought their crap about the war. Nearly 60% of Americans oppose the Iraq war, now, today, as they did before the invasion.

You think the majority of voters bought their crap about "terrorism"? 63% of Americans oppose the torture of prisoners UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. That's not a gullible population. That's a population with a good "B.S. detector" and a lot of common sense. And the election fraud evidence ALSO strongly points in that direction--that the majority opposes Bush and favors Kerry's more moderate/liberal views.


You say, "All the fundies showed up to vote." There is no evidence for it. None. You are drinking Rove's Koolaid--his B.S. about their "invisible" get out the vote campaign.

And who DID conduct the most successful voter registration and get out the vote campaign in history? The Democrats! And who got most of the new voters? The Democrats! And who got most of the independent and Nader votes? The Democrats! Where is your "fundie" vote? Where is it identified? Where is your evidence for it?

You say, "...the voting rate was something ridiculous like 60%? All the fundies showed up to vote."

Where are you getting this from? Where is the connection between big voter turnout and "all the fundies showed up to vote"?

Big voter turnout ALWAYS favors Democrats, because we are the bloody teeming masses yearning to breathe free! The workers, the poor, the women, the minorities, the elderly living on their Social Security, the students, the teachers, the artists and writers, the temps, the secretaries, the dental technicians, the garbage collectors, the LIBERAL Christians--in short, the MAJORITY of Americans.

There is NO EVIDENCE that a 60% voter turnout favored--or even conceivably could favor--Bush or the Bush Republican party. None. Zero. Zilch.

The long voting lines were in Democratic areas. The intense GOTV was in Democratic areas. Thousands of volunteers. Hundreds of grass roots groups. And a zillion stories about Gore voters pressuring non-voting family members, friends, and co-workers to register and vote THIS TIME. This was it. The most important election in our history.

All enthusiasm and momentum was on the side of the Democrats. And all the numbers support that, except one: the official tally.

Bush instigated the torture of prisoners, perpetrated an unjust war on a pack of lies, bankrupted the federal government, and disgraced himself in the debates. The first three items are points of huge disapproval by the American people. They might forgive the fourth (idiocy in debates) if they had some good reason to. They had none. And all the numbers support that, except one: the official tally.

Like Karl Rove and Edison-Mitofksy, you are taking that one touchstone--the official tally--and premising all your arguments upon it. It must be true that Bush won, ergo it must be true that "all the fundies showed up to vote"--despite there being no evidence to support it, and much evidence to the contrary. (And I don't just mean no evidence on the fundies--there is also no evidence that Bush won, other than that the news monopolies said so. Prove Bush won. You can't! The election was unverifiable--deliberately so.)


You say, "I'm just going to have to go on evidence. I always do." Well, you're not. I see NO evidence to support your assertions about the election. You're just making things up. And they sound very like BushWorld illusions and "talking points" to me (much like their "invisible" GOTV effort).

Our strategic priorities should be: 1) informing Kerry voters--the majority--what happened in this election; 2) rallying them to restore our right to vote.

Then and only then will we be able to start undoing all the Bush Cartel damage, and reforming our political system so that it never happens again.

If we ignore this essential and still doable reform--election reform--we are going to see the Democratic Party--the party of the MAJORITY--increasingly marginalized, and increasingly corrupted by fear and collusion. We are going to LOSE more and more elections due to fraud. And we are likely to see financial collapse and outright fascism descend upon us.

This is our last chance to fix it. Our last! And we MUST take advantage of it NOW.

We did EVERYTHING THAT COULD BE DONE to get out the vote in 2004. Everything. We went all out. And we succeeded beyond our wildest dreams. 60/40 voter reg. 60% voter turnout. Most of the Naderites and independents went with us. Most of the new voters went with us. All of us Deaniacs and antiwar activists and anti-globalists went ABB and strongly supported Kerry. We furthermore kept Kerry competitive on campaign money, with millions of small donations via the internet. It was an unprecedented campaign of grass roots and DNC cooperation. And look what it got us. NOTHING!!!

It was NOT a matter of GOTV. It was NOT a matter of effort, enthusiasm or funding. And it was NOT a matter of anything the K/E campaign did or didn't do. They ran a damn good campaign, and made hardly any mistakes (compared to doofus Bush and Darth Vader). To blame it on the Swiftboat liars is absurd--with the country looking at a thousand dead soldiers, photos of tortured prisoners and a trillion dollar deficit. That, too, is a Karl Rove 'talking point"--that is was the Swiftboat liars.

The Swiftboat liars, and their "invisible" get out the vote campaign. That is ridiculous. And neither thing is supported by ANY facts. Show me some facts that the Swiftboat liars changed ANY votes, or motivated anybody TO vote. Where is the evidence (you, who are so big on evidence)? The evidence shows that the independent vote opted for Kerry, big time (65%!). Republicans don't count. They were voting for Bush anyway (or so we are told). So, you show me a Democrat who bought that crap. And then you show me enough of them to CHANGE the outcome of the election!

The evidence also shows that new voters were FLOCKING to the DEMOCRATIC party in droves AS A RESULT OF the Swiftboat lies and of Bush's idiocy in the debates and his horrendous administration. 60/40!!! The evidence shows the opposite of what you're saying. Prior non-voters and young voters were INTENT UPON getting him out--and were registering and voting in unprecedented numbers in order to do so.

GOTV, and effort, and enthusiasm, and funding, and a good campaign are most certainly important, but they are useless without a transparent, verifiable election system.

That's why a transparent, verifiable election system must be our first priority. After that, the good common sense and the largely progressive values of the majority of people in this country will take care of the rest.

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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 07:21 AM
Response to Reply #2
9. Denial and the pushing in substitute of an implausible theory....
Doesn't make the theory anymore plausible. Freepers and a gross phenomenon of people skewing the exit polls beyond resolve, has the same probable chance as a meteor hitting the Moon.

There comes a point when one must simply accept the facts, no longer live in denial.

The cold facts illicit what our eyes can no longer ignore, the silent and irrefutable scream of numbers.
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bj2110 Donating Member (802 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 12:03 AM
Response to Original message
7. Funny how voters were extremely "shy" in the 3 states...
... that everyone knew would decide the election, OH, PA, FL. Wonder who planned that one? <Mr. Rove, paging Mr. Rove>
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 01:06 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Call it the Shy Bush Responder ratio.
Edited on Tue May-24-05 01:08 AM by TruthIsAll
State sBr
VT 11.4%
NY 11.0%
NH 10.2%
DE 9.8%
SC 9.5%
NE 8.5%
AL 8.5%
AK 8.4%
MA 8.0%
RI 8.0%
NC 7.7%
OH 7.0%
MS 7.0%
PA 7.0%
CT 6.9%
NJ 6.4%
UT 6.1%
MN 6.1%
ID 5.6%
FL 5.2%
WY 5.0%
VA 4.9%
AR 4.7%
IL 4.5%
NV 4.2%
NM 4.1%
LA 4.0%
CO 3.7%
WV 3.7%
AZ 3.3%
GA 3.3%
IN 3.2%
WA 3.1%
MO 2.4%
IA 2.4%
DC 2.1%
MI 1.7%
MD 1.7%
KY 1.6%
CA 1.1%
ME 0.8%
OK 0.6%
WI 0.0%
MT -0.5%
OR -1.6%
HI -2.2%
TN -3.5%
TX -3.5%
SD -3.6%
KS -5.0%
ND -5.3%
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
11. Just to be clear (for those who don't grok your esoteric sarcasm, TIA):
This graph shows an impossible phenomenon of Bush voters refusing to respond to exit pollsters in the far east states and becoming more and more responsive (the steady downward wave) as we move west, with the most responsive Bush voters clustering in the far west (MT, OR, HI, TX) and midwest (SD, KS, ND).

There is no conceivable explanation for why virtually all eastern (northeast and deep south) Bush voters would be more shy of pollsters than Bush voters in the west and midwest. (It is conceivable--in theory--they might be shy in New York or New Jersey, but in Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Mississippi, Virginia as well?)

Ergo, the Karl Rove (and Edison-Mitofsky) explanation for why the exit polls that show a nationwide Kerry win by 3% are wrong--that Republicans didn't respond to pollsters--is B.S. It is not possible that they refused to respond in this downward wave (of increasing responsiveness) from east to west.

Another implication of this graph is that the Bushite election fraudsters stole the election from east to west. They stole the most votes in the east, to secure their fraudulent victory early on, and, as the "election" proceeded, had to steal fewer and fewer votes as the polls closed in the west. (I.e., the official vote tally becomes increasingly accurate, and in sync with the exit polls, as we move west).


Please correct me if I'm wrong about any of this.


And TIA, could you address the issue of the different skews (or "red shifts") to Bush that we've seen (in the official tally vs. the exit polls): east to west, battleground states, the 11 state skew in the first Freeman paper (odds against it of 600,000 to one), the skew in the USCV paper in 7 of 50 states (odds against it of 10 million to one), and paper vs. electronic voting skews.

I imagine the different skews (or "red shifts") have to do with the Bush fraudsters' need to secure both the overall national popular vote and the Electoral College vote (certain states with a close race that were needed for the EV), and to do so largely by electronic means. I just wonder if you have some thoughts about it (comparison of the different fraud scenarios).
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 10:07 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. You are correct on all counts, but the probabilities are much lower
Edited on Tue May-24-05 10:13 AM by TruthIsAll
The probability is 1 in 13.5 trillion based on 16 states
exceeding the Moe for Bush.

This is confirmed by the regional probabilities I have
calculated based on the percentages needed by Bush from
refusers in order to match his vote count. 

The probability is virtually ZERO in the East.
1 in 4.7 million in the Midwest
1 in 488,000 in the South
1 in 422 in the West.

Combine them all and you get virtually ZERO for the total

Percent of Shy Bush Responders Required to Match Vote
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%	              56%		
Region	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	1in	44%      Z  1in

EAST	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	47.42%	47.87%	9.53	NC	48.38%	10.18	NC
MIDW	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	52.92%	53.13%	4.74	915K	53.36%	5.06	4,730,234
SOUTH	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	59.09%	59.27%	4.31	123K	59.48%	4.61	488,097
WEST	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	50.07%	50.19%	2.64	244	50.32%	2.82	422

Percent Deviation from Exit Poll Required to Match Bush Vote
EAST	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	7.02%	7.47%	9.53	NC	7.98%	10.18	NC
MIDW	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	3.20%	3.40%	4.74	915K	3.63%	5.06	4,730,234
SOUTH	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	2.84%	3.02%	4.31	123K	3.23%	4.61	488,097
WEST	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	1.87%	1.99%	2.64	244	2.13%	2.82	422


					Exit Poll Responders/Refusers						
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
EAST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

CT	872	3.27%	41.53%	44.76%	6.47%	6.89%	2.11	1.76%	7.36%	2.25	1.22%
DC	795	1.92%	8.37%	9.37%	2.00%	2.13%	1.11	13.43%	2.27%	1.18	11.86%
DE	770	3.48%	41.56%	46.18%	9.24%	9.83%	2.83	0.24%	10.50%	3.02	0.13%
MA	889	3.10%	33.54%	37.30%	7.52%	8.00%	2.58	0.50%	8.55%	2.75	0.29%
MD	1000	3.07%	42.96%	43.75%	1.58%	1.68%	0.55	29.21%	1.79%	0.58	27.95%

ME	1968	2.20%	45.17%	45.52%	0.71%	0.76%	0.34	36.56%	0.81%	0.37	35.68%
NH	1849	2.27%	44.51%	49.32%	9.62%	10.24%	4.52	0.00%	10.93%	4.83	0.00%
NJ	1520	2.49%	43.87%	46.87%	6.00%	6.38%	2.56	0.53%	6.82%	2.73	0.31%
NY	1452	2.47%	36.04%	41.21%	10.34%	11.00%	4.46	0.00%	11.75%	4.76	0.00%
PA	1930	2.22%	45.59%	48.87%	6.56%	6.97%	3.14	0.08%	7.45%	3.35	0.04%

RI	809	3.30%	35.76%	39.52%	7.51%	7.99%	2.42	0.78%	8.53%	2.58	0.49%
VT	685	3.56%	34.31%	39.66%	10.70%	11.38%	3.20	0.07%	12.16%	3.42	0.03%
WV	1722	2.35%	54.81%	56.52%	3.43%	3.65%	1.55	6.01%	3.90%	1.66	4.85%

TOTAL	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	7.02%	7.47%	9.53	0.00%	7.98%	10.18	0.00%


	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
MIDW	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

IA	2502	1.96%	49.33%	50.46%	2.26%	2.40%	1.23	11.01%	2.57%	1.31	9.5%
IL	1392	2.60%	42.87%	45.01%	4.28%	4.55%	1.75	4.01%	4.86%	1.87	3.1%
IN	926	3.17%	59.03%	60.54%	3.03%	3.22%	1.02	15.46%	3.44%	1.09	13.9%
KS	654	3.65%	65.40%	63.03%	-4.74%	-5.04%	-1.38	8.35%	-5.38%	-1.48	7.0%
MI	2452	1.98%	47.45%	48.27%	1.63%	1.74%	0.88	18.96%	1.86%	0.94	17.4%

MN	2178	2.09%	45.39%	48.24%	5.70%	6.06%	2.90	0.19%	6.47%	3.10	0.1%
MO	2158	2.11%	52.53%	53.67%	2.30%	2.44%	1.16	12.32%	2.61%	1.24	10.8%
ND	649	3.63%	66.42%	63.91%	-5.02%	-5.34%	-1.47	7.09%	-5.70%	-1.57	5.8%
NE	785	3.37%	63.46%	67.47%	8.02%	8.53%	2.53	0.57%	9.11%	2.70	0.3%
OH	1963	2.21%	47.94%	51.25%	6.62%	7.04%	3.19	0.07%	7.53%	3.40	0.0%

SD	1495	2.45%	62.58%	60.91%	-3.34%	-3.56%	-1.45	7.36%	-3.80%	-1.55	6.1%
WI	2223	2.08%	49.79%	49.80%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02	49.39%	0.03%	0.02	49.3%

TOTAL	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	3.20%	3.40%	4.74	0.0001%	3.63%	5.06	0.0%
							1 in	915,572 1 in 4,730,234


	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
SOUTH	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

AL	730	3.57%	58.92%	62.92%	8.00%	8.51%	2.39	0.85%	9.10%	2.55	0.5%
AR	1402	2.61%	53.07%	55.26%	4.38%	4.66%	1.78	3.72%	4.98%	1.91	2.8%
FL	2846	1.84%	50.07%	52.53%	4.92%	5.24%	2.85	0.22%	5.59%	3.04	0.1%
GA	1536	2.48%	56.89%	58.42%	3.06%	3.25%	1.31	9.46%	3.47%	1.40	8.0%
KY	1034	3.00%	59.25%	60.01%	1.52%	1.62%	0.54	29.44%	1.73%	0.58	28.2%

LA	1669	2.38%	55.51%	57.37%	3.74%	3.98%	1.67	4.77%	4.25%	1.78	3.7%
MS	798	3.44%	56.80%	60.09%	6.59%	7.01%	2.04	2.06%	7.49%	2.18	1.5%
NC	2167	2.10%	52.69%	56.29%	7.19%	7.65%	3.64	0.01%	8.17%	3.89	0.0%
OK	1539	2.38%	65.27%	65.56%	0.58%	0.61%	0.26	39.80%	0.66%	0.28	39.1%
SC	1735	2.34%	54.22%	58.70%	8.96%	9.53%	4.07	0.00%	10.18%	4.34	0.0%

TN	1774	2.29%	58.85%	57.22%	-3.25%	-3.46%	-1.51	6.53%	-3.70%	-1.61	5.3%
TX	1671	2.31%	63.16%	61.51%	-3.30%	-3.51%	-1.52	6.43%	-3.75%	-1.62	5.2%
VA	1431	2.59%	52.04%	54.35%	4.62%	4.91%	1.90	2.88%	5.25%	2.03	2.1%

TOTAL	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	2.84%	3.02%	4.31	0.0008%	3.23%	4.61	0.0%
							1 in	123,840	  1 in 488,097


	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
WEST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

AK	910	3.18%	59.86%	63.83%	7.94%	8.45%	2.65	0.40%	9.02%	2.83	0.2%
AZ	1859	2.27%	53.40%	54.97%	3.14%	3.34%	1.47	7.05%	3.57%	1.57	5.8%
CA	1919	2.22%	44.27%	44.79%	1.05%	1.12%	0.50	30.73%	1.20%	0.54	29.5%
CO	2515	1.95%	50.93%	52.65%	3.45%	3.67%	1.88	3.03%	3.92%	2.00	2.3%
HI	499	4.38%	46.68%	45.63%	-2.11%	-2.24%	-0.51	30.44%	-2.39%	-0.55	29.2%

ID	559	3.91%	66.67%	69.29%	5.25%	5.59%	1.43	7.64%	5.97%	1.53	6.3%
MT	640	3.78%	60.72%	60.50%	-0.45%	-0.47%	-0.13	45.01%	-0.51%	-0.13	44.7%
NM	1951	2.22%	48.66%	50.58%	3.85%	4.10%	1.85	3.23%	4.38%	1.97	2.4%
NV	2116	2.13%	49.34%	51.33%	3.99%	4.24%	1.99	2.32%	4.53%	2.13	1.7%
OR	1064	3.00%	48.78%	48.03%	-1.49%	-1.59%	-0.53	29.86%	-1.70%	-0.56	28.6%

UT	798	3.18%	70.07%	72.94%	5.74%	6.10%	1.92	2.74%	6.52%	2.05	2.0%
WA	2123	2.12%	44.93%	46.40%	2.94%	3.12%	1.48	7.00%	3.34%	1.58	5.7%
WY	684	3.50%	67.93%	70.30%	4.74%	5.04%	1.44	7.49%	5.38%	1.54	6.2%

TOTAL	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	1.87%	1.99%	2.64	0.41%	2.13%	2.82	0.2%
						      1 in	244	    1 in	422
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 01:43 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. You mean to say the absent minded reluctant responder was psychic?
You mean to tell me, that these voters showed up to the polls in mass and lied to the polls refusing to respond all over the east coast but as we get farther, and farther towards the left hemisphere of the west the phenomenon completely dissapears?

Amazing! So not only does the responder phenomenon happen to the far right and left of the nominee, it also happens to the far left and right of the United States entirely!!

There should be a firm snapshot picture of this. Wow, I never knew God himself had this much power over an election.

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