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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 09:45 PM
Original message
THE EAST WAS THE rBr BEAST
Edited on Sun May-22-05 10:20 PM by TruthIsAll
I thought it would be interesting to do a regional analysis to
see the effects of Exit Poll response rates on the required
number of  refusers that Bush needed to make up the
discrepancy between the polls and his recorded vote
percentages.

The East was the Beast. ALL 22 states in the Eastern Time Zone
deviated to Bush. The Eastern Region consists of 13 states.

In the East, 16261 responders were interviewed and 40.40% of
them   voted for Bush. But Bush got 43.91% of the 2-party vote
in the region.

If we assume that the average response rate was 50%, then 50%
refused to be interviewed. According to the famous rBr
hypothesis, many of these refusers were Reluctant Bush Voters.
So the question is this: Given that Bush won 43.91%, what
percentage of the 50% refusers did he need to get there from
the 40.40% he got in the exit poll?  It's the difference:
3.51% added to 43.91% is 47.42%. 

But what if the response rate was 53%? In that case, he needed
47.87% of the refusers, a slightly higher percentage. This
makes sense, since there are fewer refusers (47%). If the
response rate was 56%, he needed 48.38%.

What is the probability that Bush would get 40.40% of the
16261 (53%) who responded in the East and 47.87% of the 14420
(47%) who refused? Well, its very, very close to ZERO, since
the margin of error is a thin 0.78% and the incremental
percentage change required is a fat 7.02% (47.42-40.40).
That's almost 10 times the margin of error.

The following tables show the required percentage of Refusers
that Bush needed in each state and region. The probability,
based on the Z-score (number of standard deviations from the
exit poll mean), is also given for each state and region.

BOTTOM LINE: IF YOU BELIEVE IN rBr, THEN YOU MUST ALSO BELIEVE
they are spread far and wide all over the nation. But the rBr
BEAST thrives primarily in the EAST. That mysterious alien
form refused to be interviewed, according to Mitofsky. Just
like what he said in 1992, when Poppy Bush pulled out a
miracle win in the New Hampshire primary vs. Buchanan, after
the exit polls showed Bushanan was doing very well.

Reluctant responders, if they exit, are purely a Bushian
species. They only appear when a Bush is running.


*********************************************************
Percent of Reluctant Responders Required to Match Bush Vote
Count						
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%	              56%		
Region	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	1in	44%      Z  1in

EAST	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	47.42%	47.87%	9.53	NC	48.38%	10.18	NC
MIDW	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	52.92%	53.13%	4.74	915K	53.36%	5.06	4,730,234
SOUTH	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	59.09%	59.27%	4.31	123K	59.48%	4.61	488,097
WEST	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	50.07%	50.19%	2.64	244	50.32%	2.82	422

********************************************************											
Percent Deviation from Exit Poll Required to Match Bush Vote
Count 										
EAST	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	7.02%	7.47%	9.53	NC	7.98%	10.18	NC
MIDW	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	3.20%	3.40%	4.74	915K	3.63%	5.06	4,730,234
SOUTH	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	2.84%	3.02%	4.31	123K	3.23%	4.61	488,097
WEST	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	1.87%	1.99%	2.64	244	2.13%	2.82	422

*********************************************************

Percent Deviation from Exit Poll Required to Match Bush Vote
Count with corresponding Z-scores										
					Exit Poll Responders/Refusers						
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
EAST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

CT	872	3.27%	41.53%	44.76%	6.47%	6.89%	2.11	1.76%	7.36%	2.25	1.22%
DC	795	1.92%	8.37%	9.37%	2.00%	2.13%	1.11	13.43%	2.27%	1.18	11.86%
DE	770	3.48%	41.56%	46.18%	9.24%	9.83%	2.83	0.24%	10.50%	3.02	0.13%
MA	889	3.10%	33.54%	37.30%	7.52%	8.00%	2.58	0.50%	8.55%	2.75	0.29%
MD	1000	3.07%	42.96%	43.75%	1.58%	1.68%	0.55	29.21%	1.79%	0.58	27.95%

ME	1968	2.20%	45.17%	45.52%	0.71%	0.76%	0.34	36.56%	0.81%	0.37	35.68%
NH	1849	2.27%	44.51%	49.32%	9.62%	10.24%	4.52	0.00%	10.93%	4.83	0.00%
NJ	1520	2.49%	43.87%	46.87%	6.00%	6.38%	2.56	0.53%	6.82%	2.73	0.31%
NY	1452	2.47%	36.04%	41.21%	10.34%	11.00%	4.46	0.00%	11.75%	4.76	0.00%
PA	1930	2.22%	45.59%	48.87%	6.56%	6.97%	3.14	0.08%	7.45%	3.35	0.04%

RI	809	3.30%	35.76%	39.52%	7.51%	7.99%	2.42	0.78%	8.53%	2.58	0.49%
VT	685	3.56%	34.31%	39.66%	10.70%	11.38%	3.20	0.07%	12.16%	3.42	0.03%
WV	1722	2.35%	54.81%	56.52%	3.43%	3.65%	1.55	6.01%	3.90%	1.66	4.85%

TOTAL	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	7.02%	7.47%	9.53	0.00%	7.98%	10.18	0.00%

*********************************************************

	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
MIDW	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

IA	2502	1.96%	49.33%	50.46%	2.26%	2.40%	1.23	11.01%	2.57%	1.31	9.5%
IL	1392	2.60%	42.87%	45.01%	4.28%	4.55%	1.75	4.01%	4.86%	1.87	3.1%
IN	926	3.17%	59.03%	60.54%	3.03%	3.22%	1.02	15.46%	3.44%	1.09	13.9%
KS	654	3.65%	65.40%	63.03%	-4.74%	-5.04%	-1.38	8.35%	-5.38%	-1.48	7.0%
MI	2452	1.98%	47.45%	48.27%	1.63%	1.74%	0.88	18.96%	1.86%	0.94	17.4%

MN	2178	2.09%	45.39%	48.24%	5.70%	6.06%	2.90	0.19%	6.47%	3.10	0.1%
MO	2158	2.11%	52.53%	53.67%	2.30%	2.44%	1.16	12.32%	2.61%	1.24	10.8%
ND	649	3.63%	66.42%	63.91%	-5.02%	-5.34%	-1.47	7.09%	-5.70%	-1.57	5.8%
NE	785	3.37%	63.46%	67.47%	8.02%	8.53%	2.53	0.57%	9.11%	2.70	0.3%
OH	1963	2.21%	47.94%	51.25%	6.62%	7.04%	3.19	0.07%	7.53%	3.40	0.0%

SD	1495	2.45%	62.58%	60.91%	-3.34%	-3.56%	-1.45	7.36%	-3.80%	-1.55	6.1%
WI	2223	2.08%	49.79%	49.80%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02	49.39%	0.03%	0.02	49.3%

TOTAL	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	3.20%	3.40%	4.74	0.0001%	3.63%	5.06	0.0%
							1 in	915,572 1 in 4,730,234

*********************************************************

	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
SOUTH	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

AL	730	3.57%	58.92%	62.92%	8.00%	8.51%	2.39	0.85%	9.10%	2.55	0.5%
AR	1402	2.61%	53.07%	55.26%	4.38%	4.66%	1.78	3.72%	4.98%	1.91	2.8%
FL	2846	1.84%	50.07%	52.53%	4.92%	5.24%	2.85	0.22%	5.59%	3.04	0.1%
GA	1536	2.48%	56.89%	58.42%	3.06%	3.25%	1.31	9.46%	3.47%	1.40	8.0%
KY	1034	3.00%	59.25%	60.01%	1.52%	1.62%	0.54	29.44%	1.73%	0.58	28.2%

LA	1669	2.38%	55.51%	57.37%	3.74%	3.98%	1.67	4.77%	4.25%	1.78	3.7%
MS	798	3.44%	56.80%	60.09%	6.59%	7.01%	2.04	2.06%	7.49%	2.18	1.5%
NC	2167	2.10%	52.69%	56.29%	7.19%	7.65%	3.64	0.01%	8.17%	3.89	0.0%
OK	1539	2.38%	65.27%	65.56%	0.58%	0.61%	0.26	39.80%	0.66%	0.28	39.1%
SC	1735	2.34%	54.22%	58.70%	8.96%	9.53%	4.07	0.00%	10.18%	4.34	0.0%

TN	1774	2.29%	58.85%	57.22%	-3.25%	-3.46%	-1.51	6.53%	-3.70%	-1.61	5.3%
TX	1671	2.31%	63.16%	61.51%	-3.30%	-3.51%	-1.52	6.43%	-3.75%	-1.62	5.2%
VA	1431	2.59%	52.04%	54.35%	4.62%	4.91%	1.90	2.88%	5.25%	2.03	2.1%

TOTAL	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	2.84%	3.02%	4.31	0.0008%	3.23%	4.61	0.0%
							1 in	123,840	  1 in 488,097

*********************************************************

	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
WEST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

AK	910	3.18%	59.86%	63.83%	7.94%	8.45%	2.65	0.40%	9.02%	2.83	0.2%
AZ	1859	2.27%	53.40%	54.97%	3.14%	3.34%	1.47	7.05%	3.57%	1.57	5.8%
CA	1919	2.22%	44.27%	44.79%	1.05%	1.12%	0.50	30.73%	1.20%	0.54	29.5%
CO	2515	1.95%	50.93%	52.65%	3.45%	3.67%	1.88	3.03%	3.92%	2.00	2.3%
HI	499	4.38%	46.68%	45.63%	-2.11%	-2.24%	-0.51	30.44%	-2.39%	-0.55	29.2%

ID	559	3.91%	66.67%	69.29%	5.25%	5.59%	1.43	7.64%	5.97%	1.53	6.3%
MT	640	3.78%	60.72%	60.50%	-0.45%	-0.47%	-0.13	45.01%	-0.51%	-0.13	44.7%
NM	1951	2.22%	48.66%	50.58%	3.85%	4.10%	1.85	3.23%	4.38%	1.97	2.4%
NV	2116	2.13%	49.34%	51.33%	3.99%	4.24%	1.99	2.32%	4.53%	2.13	1.7%
OR	1064	3.00%	48.78%	48.03%	-1.49%	-1.59%	-0.53	29.86%	-1.70%	-0.56	28.6%

UT	798	3.18%	70.07%	72.94%	5.74%	6.10%	1.92	2.74%	6.52%	2.05	2.0%
WA	2123	2.12%	44.93%	46.40%	2.94%	3.12%	1.48	7.00%	3.34%	1.58	5.7%
WY	684	3.50%	67.93%	70.30%	4.74%	5.04%	1.44	7.49%	5.38%	1.54	6.2%

TOTAL	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	1.87%	1.99%	2.64	0.41%	2.13%	2.82	0.2%
						      1 in	244	    1 in	422
											
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dweller Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 09:56 PM
Response to Original message
1. wow
for once it's not the South's fault... :sarcasm:

hey TIA, why don't you call in to Stephanie Miller's show sometime and discuss this? I know they've mentioned your work once (perhaps more?) and Jim, her sidekick, probably reads DU and your threads...they discuss vote fraud often.

You should give it a shot, imo.

dp
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. Well, people in the East are a modest bunch (haha).
Edited on Sun May-22-05 11:27 PM by autorank
Some examples

--New Yorkers, a notoriously reticent bunch, rarely let you know what they think;
--people from Philly are wonderful sports fans who hardly make a peep;
--they don't call Baltimore "attitude capitol of the world" for nothing; and
--people from New Jersey just have to be dragged into conversations and when they are, you never really know where they're coming from.

Those Easterners are so, so modest. The must have jumped in fear when some exit pollster asked their opinion.

GREAT POST. THE MYTHS KEEP FALLING!!!

Who are those eFd's (enthusiastic Fraud deniers) and what are they up to?


On edit :kick:Recommend
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. someone say something about NJ?
>wink<

you talkin to me?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 12:58 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. The myths are falling down...
.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 06:55 AM
Response to Original message
3.  A NOTE
Edited on Mon May-23-05 06:58 AM by TruthIsAll
These Z-scores are CORRECT. Those posted in the thread "Is RBr Still Breathing?" were too low.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 01:08 PM
Response to Original message
4. Eastern Region Probabilities for various response rates
Edited on Mon May-23-05 01:35 PM by TruthIsAll
Required Bush percentage of Exit Poll Refusers
and Probabilities for the Eastern region

Note the probabilities are not far from the 1 in 13.5 trillion
chance that at least 16 states would lean to Bush beyond the
MoE - and NONE for Kerry. Different calculation, similar order
of magnitude.

	Bush	Bush	Exit Poll Response Rate		
	Poll	Vote	50%	53%	56%
VT	34.31%	39.66%	10.70%	11.38%	12.16%
NY	36.04%	41.21%	10.34%	11.00%	11.75%
NH	44.51%	49.32%	9.62%	10.24%	10.93%
DE	41.56%	46.18%	9.24%	9.83%	10.50%
MA	33.54%	37.30%	7.52%	8.00%	8.55%

RI	35.76%	39.52%	7.51%	7.99%	8.53%
PA	45.59%	48.87%	6.56%	6.97%	7.45%
CT	41.53%	44.76%	6.47%	6.89%	7.36%
NJ	43.87%	46.87%	6.00%	6.38%	6.82%
WV	54.81%	56.52%	3.43%	3.65%	3.90%

DC	8.37%	9.37%	2.00%	2.13%	2.27%
MD	42.96%	43.75%	1.58%	1.68%	1.79%
ME	45.17%	45.52%	0.71%	0.76%	0.81%
					
Avg	40.40%	43.91%	6.28%	6.68%	7.14%
					
Avg	40.40%	43.91%	7.42%	7.47%	7.98%
Probability		5.9E-14	4.04E-14 0.000E+00
1 in                17 trillion	 25 trillion	 ?
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 03:51 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. Incredible....
I'm beginning to wonder if some of the foreigners do not understand american based statistics or percentages.....I'm able to read and see the red flags immediately, while someone in say......Russia....is not...Interesting.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 01:59 AM
Response to Original message
7. kick/nt
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 08:18 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Hey buddy, great minds think alike:KICK:
:kick:
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 08:21 PM
Response to Original message
10. This post is highly pertinent to TIA's Invitation to the researchers here
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 08:22 PM by autorank
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 10:17 PM
Response to Original message
11. Hopefully this will be
the last tag team they send to the DU to take you on TIA. Stay tough, and Kick em in the ass. :yourock: :patriot:
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 01:49 PM
Response to Original message
12. KICK for relevance to this thread " TO BAIMAN, FEBBLE, OTOH, TFC, O'DELL,
etc: IS rBr PLAUSIBLE?"
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. The I L B R.
"I lie because I can bush regurgitator" theory.

;)
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