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AAPOR? ESI? Does Not Prove Fraud?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 07:21 AM
Original message
AAPOR? ESI? Does Not Prove Fraud?
Edited on Sun May-15-05 08:17 AM by TruthIsAll
National Exit Poll @ 4pm (8349 respondents) does not prove
fraud?
National Exit Poll @ 7:33pm (11027) does not prove fraud?
National Exit Poll @ 12:22am (13047) does not prove fraud?

National Exit Poll @ 1:25pm (13660) does not prove fraud?

42 out of 50 states shifting to Bush does not prove fraud?
22 out of 22 Easter Time Zone states shifting to Bush does not
prove fraud?
16 states exceeding the MoE, all in favor of Bush, does not
prove Fraud?
 
New Mexico Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Ohio Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Florida Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Pennsylvania Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Colorado Exit Poll does not prove fraud?

Minnesota Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
New Hampshire Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Minnesota Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
North Carolina Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
South Carolina Exit Poll does not prove fraud?

Iowa Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Rhode Island Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Georgia Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Alabama Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Delaware Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Arizona Exit Poll does not prove fraud?

Connecticut Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Delaware Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Louisiana Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Nebraska Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
New Jersey Exit Poll does not prove fraud?

Nevada Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Utah Exit Poll does not prove fraud?
Vermont Exit Poll does not prove fraud?

Oregon, the ONLY STATE WITH 100% MAIL-IN PAPER BALLOTS, WITHIN
0.75% OF THE EXIT POLLS, does not prove fraud?


50,000 Documented Election Incidents, 99% favoring Bush, does
not prove fraud?

86 of 88 touchscreens turning Kerry votes to Bush votes, with
a probability of 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000, does not
prove fraud? 



		Vote	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev
St	Z-Score	Size	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob  	 1in	For
AK	2.44	302	910	3.18%	1.62%	40.14	36.17	-3.97%	0.73%	138	Bush
AL	2.20	1870	730	3.57%	1.82%	41.08	37.08	-4.00%	1.40%	72	Bush
AR	1.64	1998	1402	2.61%	1.33%	46.93	44.74	-2.19%	5.01%	20	Bush
AZ	1.36	1043	1859	2.27%	1.16%	46.60	45.03	-1.57%	8.75%	11	Bush
CA	0.46	12255	1919	2.22%	1.13%	55.73	55.21	-0.53%	32.14%	3	Bush
CO	1.73	2103	2515	1.95%	1.00%	49.07	47.35	-1.72%	4.20%	24	Bush
CT	1.94	1551	872	3.27%	1.67%	58.47	55.24	-3.24%	2.62%	38	Bush
DC	1.02	372	795	1.92%	0.98%	91.63	90.63	-1.00%	15.40%	6	Bush
DE	2.60	224	770	3.48%	1.78%	58.44	53.82	-4.62%	0.46%	216	Bush
FL	2.63	7548	2846	1.84%	0.937%	49.93	47.47	-2.46%	0.43%	231	Bush
GA	1.21	3280	1536	2.48%	1.26%	43.11	41.58	-1.53%	11.33%	9	Bush
HI	0.47	426	499	4.38%	2.23%	53.32	54.37	1.05%	31.86%	3	Kerry
IA	1.13	1494	2502	1.96%	1.00%	50.67	49.54	-1.13%	12.93%	8	Bush
ID	1.32	590	559	3.91%	1.99%	33.33	30.71	-2.63%	9.39%	11	Bush
IL	1.61	5239	1392	2.60%	1.33%	57.13	54.99	-2.14%	5.35%	19	Bush
IN	0.94	2448	926	3.17%	1.62%	40.97	39.46	-1.51%	17.44%	6	Bush
KS	1.27	1171	654	3.65%	1.86%	34.60	36.97	2.37%	10.15%	10	Kerry
KY	0.50	1782	1034	3.00%	1.53%	40.76	39.99	-0.76%	30.92%	3	Bush
LA	1.54	1922	1669	2.38%	1.22%	44.50	42.63	-1.87%	6.22%	16	Bush
MA	2.38	2875	889	3.10%	1.58%	66.46	62.70	-3.76%	0.88%	114	Bush
MD	0.50	2359	1000	3.07%	1.57%	57.04	56.25	-0.79%	30.71%	3	Bush
ME	0.32	727	1968	2.20%	1.12%	54.83	54.48	-0.36%	37.58%	3	Bush
MI	0.81	4793	2452	1.98%	1.01%	52.55	51.73	-0.82%	20.89%	5	Bush
MN	2.67	2792	2178	2.09%	1.07%	54.61	51.76	-2.85%	0.38%	263	Bush
MO	1.07	2715	2158	2.11%	1.07%	47.48	46.33	-1.15%	14.28%	7	Bush
MS	1.88	1130	798	3.44%	1.75%	43.20	39.91	-3.30%	3.00%	33	Bush
MT	0.12	440	640	3.78%	1.93%	39.28	39.51	0.22%	45.40%	2	Kerry
NC	3.35	3487	2167	2.10%	1.07%	47.31	43.72	-3.60%	0.04%	2508	Bush
ND	1.35	308	649	3.63%	1.85%	33.58	36.09	2.51%	8.80%	11	Kerry
NE	2.33	767	785	3.37%	1.72%	36.54	32.53	-4.01%	0.99%	102	Bush
NH	4.16	672	1849	2.27%	1.16%	55.50	50.68	-4.81%	0.00%	63547	Bush
NJ	2.36	3581	1520	2.49%	1.27%	56.13	53.13	-3.00%	0.92%	108	Bush
NM	1.70	748	1951	2.22%	1.13%	51.34	49.42	-1.93%	4.43%	23	Bush
NV	1.83	816	2116	2.13%	1.09%	50.66	48.67	-1.99%	3.33%	30	Bush
NY	4.10	7277	1452	2.47%	1.26%	63.97	58.79	-5.17%	0.00%	49430	Bush
OH	2.94	5599	1963	2.21%	1.13%	52.06	48.75	-3.31%	0.17%	602	Bush
OK	0.24	1464	1539	2.38%	1.21%	34.73	34.44	-0.29%	40.59%	2	Bush
OR	0.49	1810	1064	3.00%	1.53%	51.22	51.97	0.75%	31.32%	3	Kerry
PA	2.89	5732	1930	2.22%	1.13%	54.41	51.13	-3.28%	0.19%	521	Bush
RI	2.23	429	809	3.30%	1.69%	64.24	60.48	-3.76%	1.29%	77	Bush
SC	3.75	1600	1735	2.34%	1.20%	45.79	41.31	-4.48%	0.01%	11104	Bush
SD	1.34	382	1495	2.45%	1.25%	37.42	39.09	1.67%	9.09%	11	Kerry
TN	1.39	2421	1774	2.29%	1.17%	41.15	42.78	1.63%	8.19%	12	Kerry
TX	1.40	7360	1671	2.31%	1.18%	36.84	38.49	1.65%	8.08%	12	Kerry
UT	1.77	905	798	3.18%	1.62%	29.93	27.06	-2.87%	3.84%	26	Bush
VA	1.75	3172	1431	2.59%	1.32%	47.96	45.65	-2.31%	4.01%	25	Bush
VT	2.95	305	685	3.56%	1.81%	65.69	60.34	-5.35%	0.16%	628	Bush
WA	1.36	2815	2123	2.12%	1.08%	55.07	53.60	-1.47%	8.69%	12	Bush
WI	0.01	2968	2223	2.08%	1.06%	50.21	50.20	-0.02%	49.44%	2	Bush
WV	1.43	750	1722	2.35%	1.20%	45.19	43.48	-1.72%	7.61%	13	Bush
WY	1.33	238	684	3.50%	1.78%	32.07	29.70	-2.37%	9.23%	11	Bush

Total	-9.98	121055	73607	2.71%	0.184%	48.84	47.00	-1.84%	10.99%	9	
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BrklynLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 07:35 AM
Response to Original message
1. Not in the world of Bush/Rove reality. The rest of us knew all along.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
2. Correction: Average Z-score = 1.69, prob <.0000000001
Edited on Sun May-15-05 09:58 AM by TruthIsAll
		Vote	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds
St	Z-Score	Size	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob  	 

	
	1.69	121055	73607	0.36%	0.0018	48.84	47.00	-1.84%	0.00%	1/13.5Trillion

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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 11:32 AM
Response to Original message
3. nominated! n/t
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