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NON-RESPONSE BIAS? HERE'S WHY IT HURT KERRY MORE THAN BUSH..

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-05 04:13 PM
Original message
NON-RESPONSE BIAS? HERE'S WHY IT HURT KERRY MORE THAN BUSH..
Edited on Sat May-14-05 04:58 PM by TruthIsAll
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Starfury Donating Member (615 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-05 04:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. Makes sense to me!
I never felt the election was as close as even the initial exit polls were claiming. Maybe there was something to that feeling other than my wishful thinking. Thanks for posting!
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-05 04:49 PM
Response to Original message
2. Yup
You are getting there.

Keep reading. Non-response bias is a fascinating subject. As you will realise, of course, it is not simple - if only we could predict non-response on the basis of income alone!

Wouldn't life be easy for us guys with the spreadsheets!

But it's a start. Now, maybe try a chapter on political views....

And perhaps think about the question: what kind of voter (and remember there are reluctant Bush AND Kerry responders out there) might be shy? Not those loud Miami Dade types, no, definitely not. Not those guys with the brash bumper stickers, definitely not them. Kerry voters in evangelical churches - they might be shy, certainly. And what about Bush voters who normally don't vote at all? The ones who only turnout in very high turnout years? Like 1992, when the exit polls were also discrepant with the count? They might be shy. Now, which voter group is likely to be the shyest? It's going to be neck and neck....


Could be a few more Bushies. Could be a few more Kerryites. In which case, maybe there was fraud....

Decisions, decisions....

Math is SO much easier, isn't it? But psychology is so much fun.

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Sancho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-05 04:50 PM
Response to Original message
3. You've hit the nail on the head....!
That's why we need to profile the respondents with the raw data. EM KNOWs what the respondents look like, and they ain't telling....the fact that they don't release the data demonstrates what must me in the data!
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-05 05:51 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. No they don't have data on the non-respondents
well, literally they have data on what they LOOK like - but since when could you tell how a person voted by what they look like? You can only guess.

The whole point of non-response bias is that you don't have data on your non-responders. If you did, there wouldn't be a problem.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 02:45 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. What I want to know is....
were they men? Because on election night, Rove's argument was that the exit polls were wrong because men were underrepresented proportionately. How does that jibe with the rBr?
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 01:35 AM
Response to Original message
5. KICK.NT
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