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MORE NUMERICAL EVIDENCE KERRY WON: 2004 TURNOUT SCENARIOS

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-05 07:14 AM
Original message
MORE NUMERICAL EVIDENCE KERRY WON: 2004 TURNOUT SCENARIOS
Edited on Thu May-12-05 07:24 AM by TruthIsAll
Kerry Margin of Victory Turnout Matrix

Bush only wins with 80% Gore Turnout		

Gore	Bush Turnout %	
Turnout	  100	99	98

100	  5.91	6.39	6.86
99	  5.58	6.06	6.53
98	  5.25	5.73	6.2
95	  4.26	4.74	5.21
90	  2.61	3.09	3.57
85	  1.92	1.44	1.92
80	 -0.69	-0.21	0.27

******************************************
99%/99% Turnout Scenario Detail

National Exit Poll
13047 respondents @ 12:22am					

Kerry margin:6.06	million votes			

Gore turnout:99.0%
Bush turnout:99.0%

How Voted in 2000
-----------------
No: did not vote IN 2000
Consisting of 
New: first-time voters
Old: voted before 2000

Total	        Mix	Kerry	Bush	Nader
22.129	No	18.10%	57.00%	41.00%	2.00%
consisting of:
14.071	New	11.51%	56.00%	43.00%	1.00%
8.059	Old	6.59%	58.75%	37.51%	3.75%
					
48.722	Gore	39.85%	91.00%	8.00%	1.00%
48.203	Bush	39.43%	9.00%	91.00%	0.00%
3.206	Nader	2.62%	71.00%	21.00%	8.00%
					
122.26	Total	100.0%	51.99%	47.04%	0.97%
		122.26	63.56	57.51	1.19
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indepat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-05 07:59 AM
Response to Original message
1. Just trust 'em, don't verify
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-05 10:16 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Very slight correction to the Gore 85% turnout line
Kerry Margin of Victory Turnout Matrix		

       Bush Turnout	
	100%	99%	98%
Gore
100%	5.91	6.39	6.86
99	5.58	6.06	6.53
98	5.25	5.73	6.2
95	4.26	4.74	5.21
90	2.61	3.09	3.57
85	0.96	1.44	1.92
80	-0.69	-0.21	0.27
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-05 10:18 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. THE GRAPH
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-05 08:50 AM
Response to Original message
2. An 80% turnout of Gore 2000 voters for Kerry is ridiculous...
...because, a) these were the voters who were cheated in 2000 and they knew it, and they were pissed!; and b) these were the people who got their non-voting uncles, aunts, cousins, parents, children, co-workers, fellow students, teachers, bosses, employees, neighbors, friends, and acquaintances to register and vote THIS TIME because this was "the most important election in U.S. history"--resulting in a blowout success for the Democrats in new voter registrations in 2004 (nearly 60/40)--and indicating that they (Gore 2000 voters) were HIGHLY MOTIVATED to vote themselves!

In short, there is no way Bush won this.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-05 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. So true, is all I say!
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