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A PUZZLE FOR DUERS: THE NATIONAL VS. STATE GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC MATCH-UP

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 12:20 PM
Original message
A PUZZLE FOR DUERS: THE NATIONAL VS. STATE GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC MATCH-UP
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 12:22 PM by TruthIsAll
Is this just coincidence? What do you think?

Let's compare the National Exit Poll Gender demographic to the
state polls.

There were four stages to the National Exit Poll. 
The timeline is shown below. 

There were 51 state exit polls, totaling 73,000 respondents,
also below. The state exit polls were posted at 12:22am.

I wanted to see if the  Gender demographic for the weighted
state exit polls matched the National. The reason is that the
Gender demographic is the best overall measure of who won.
There are just two characteristics (male and female) and they
are asked the basic question: Who did you vote for? Very
simple.

Here's what I noticed: The horizontal sums for Kerry, Bush,
Nader/Other did not add to 100%, in all the states. I ran the
numbers and calculated a weighted vote total for Kerry, based
on the exit poll percentages multiplied by the weighted state
vote (state vote/total vote). Summing the weights gives
Kerry's true National Percentage.

As you might expect, since the individual state totals do not
all add to 100%, Kerry's weighted total is understated
(50.01%).
Compare this 50.01% to the 12:22am National exit poll
(50.80%).

So here's what I did. I allocated the differences to Kerry, so
that the horizontal totals =100% for Kerry+Bush+Nader. The
state-weighted Kerry Percentage is now 50.82%, within .04% of
the National 50.78%.

Now, here is the question:

Is the fact that the state percentages did not at first add to
100%, but after the differences were allocated to Kerry, the
state polls exactly matched the National Exit Poll, just a
coincidence? 

What do you think?

ANALYSIS OF THE GENDER VOTE		
National vs. State Exit Polls		

NATIONAL EXIT POLL		
Time	Size	KerryPct
4pm	8349	50.48
7:33pm	11027	50.78
12:22am	13047	50.78
1:25pm	13660	47.78
		

STATE EXIT POLLS		
12:22am 	72714	

Total Pcts did not all add to 100% for Kerry+Bush+Nader		
Wtd Avg	50.01	
Unwtd Avg	48.28	

Adding the difference to Kerry's totals to = 100%		
Wtd Avg	50.82	
Unwtd Avg	48.97	

The weighted average now agrees with the Nat Exit Poll		
	
									

			Posted Totals<100%	    Posted Totals =100%		
State	Vote	Size	MoE	Kerry	VoteWtd		Kerry	Diff	VoteWtd
									
AL	1.883	730	3.63%	40.5%	0.62%		41.4%	0.92%	0.64%
AK	0.312	910	3.25%	38.8%	0.10%		39.2%	0.48%	0.10%
AZ	2.013	1859	2.27%	46.7%	0.77%		47.2%	0.47%	0.78%
AR	1.056	1402	2.62%	46.1%	0.40%		46.7%	0.57%	0.40%
CA	12.392	919	3.23%	54.6%	5.54%		56.6%	1.96%	5.74%

CO	2.128	2515	1.95%	48.1%	0.84%		49.6%	1.47%	0.86%
CT	1.579	872	3.32%	57.7%	0.74%		57.6%	-0.06%	0.74%
DC	0.227	795	3.48%	89.8%	0.17%		89.7%	-0.12%	0.28%
DE	0.375	770	3.53%	57.3%	0.18%		58.3%	1.00%	0.11%
FL	7.604	2846	1.84%	49.7%	3.09%		49.7%	0.00%	3.09%

GA	3.299	1536	2.50%	42.9%	1.16%		43.4%	0.44%	1.17%
HA	0.429	499	4.39%	53.3%	0.19%		53.3%	0.00%	0.19%
ID	0.598	539	4.22%	32.9%	0.16%		34.3%	1.45%	0.17%
IL	5.275	1392	2.63%	56.6%	2.44%		57.6%	1.00%	2.49%
IN	2.468	926	4.39%	40.6%	0.82%		41.6%	1.00%	0.84%

IA	1.505	2502	4.22%	49.7%	0.61%		50.2%	0.46%	0.62%
KS	1.188	654	3.83%	34.1%	0.33%		34.6%	0.45%	0.34%
KY	1.796	1034	3.05%	40.2%	0.59%		41.2%	1.00%	0.61%
LA	1.939	1669	2.40%	43.9%	0.70%		44.9%	1.00%	0.71%
ME	0.741	1968	2.21%	53.8%	0.33%		54.2%	0.47%	0.33%

MD	2.384	1000	3.10%	56.2%	1.10%		57.2%	1.00%	1.12%
MA	2.905	869	3.32%	65.2%	1.55%		67.1%	1.96%	1.60%
MI	4.838	2452	1.98%	51.5%	2.04%		52.5%	1.00%	2.08%
MN	2.823	2178	2.10%	53.5%	1.24%		54.5%	1.00%	1.26%
MS	1.138	798	3.47%	43.0%	0.40%		43.0%	0.00%	0.40%

MO	2.731	2158	2.11%	47.0%	1.05%		48.0%	1.00%	1.07%
MT	0.450	640	3.87%	37.5%	0.14%		39.0%	1.51%	0.14%
NE	0.777	785	3.50%	36.0%	0.23%		36.0%	0.00%	0.23%
NV	0.826	2116	2.13%	49.2%	0.33%		50.2%	1.00%	0.34%
NH	0.676	1849	2.28%	54.9%	0.30%		55.0%	0.02%	0.30%

NJ	3.610	1520	2.56%	53.4%	1.58%		53.4%	0.00%	1.58%
NM	0.756	1951	2.22%	50.1%	0.31%		51.1%	1.00%	0.32%
NY	7.389	1476	2.55%	65.1%	3.94%		65.1%	0.00%	3.94%
NC	3.501	2099	2.14%	48.2%	1.38%		48.2%	0.00%	1.38%
ND	0.313	649	3.85%	32.6%	0.08%		33.6%	1.00%	0.09%

OH	5.625	1963	2.21%	52.1%	2.40%		52.1%	0.00%	2.40%
OK	1.464	1539	2.50%	34.6%	0.41%		35.0%	0.48%	0.42%
OR	1.828	1054	3.02%	50.3%	0.75%		52.2%	1.90%	0.78%
PA	5.766	1930	2.23%	54.1%	2.55%		54.7%	0.53%	2.58%
RI	0.436	809	3.45%	62.7%	0.22%		63.1%	0.47%	0.23%

SC	1.616	1935	2.23%	45.1%	0.60%		45.6%	0.43%	0.60%
SD	0.388	1495	2.53%	36.5%	0.12%		37.0%	0.51%	0.12%
TN	2.437	1774	2.33%	40.6%	0.81%		41.0%	0.48%	0.82%
TX	7.410	1671	2.40%	36.3%	2.20%		37.8%	1.46%	2.29%
UT	0.927	798	3.47%	29.1%	0.22%		30.0%	0.92%	0.23%

VT	0.311	685	3.74%	63.7%	0.16%		64.2%	0.55%	0.16%
VA	3.193	1432	2.59%	50.2%	1.31%		50.2%	0.00%	1.31%
WA	2.857	2123	2.13%	54.1%	1.27%		55.0%	0.86%	1.29%
WV	0.756	1722	2.36%	44.5%	0.28%		45.0%	0.47%	0.28%
WI	2.993	2223	2.08%	49.2%	1.21%		49.7%	0.47%	1.22%

WY	0.243	684	3.75%	30.9%	0.06%		32.5%	1.51%	0.06%

State	Vote	Size	AvgMoE	KAvg<100KWtd<100	KAvg	Diff	KWtd
Sum/Avg	122.171	72714	2.86%	48.47%	49.29%		49.17%	1.53%	50.82%
									
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The Doctor. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. Hey TIA...
Any chance you have access to either a comprhensive comparison between EPs and machine placement per precinct or a resource that would allow me to make those corelations?

I've been puttering aroud for a while and have not found a comprehensive list for machine placements - I think that such a thing would lend a great deal of weight to your studies.

If you have posted something like this, I apologize for missing it. My problem is that one of my machine-placement resources 'disappeared'.

I'd love to put those together, it would help a great deal.

Now I'll get back to the puzzle at hand.

And as always - thanks!
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MontageOfFreedom Donating Member (633 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. You probably would be interested in looking over these graphics...
http://www.votersunite.org

Each region there breaks down the catergory of voting and if I remember correctly, the allocation level in each area.
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The Doctor. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Thank you, I will peruse this some.
I know I've seen this resource before, I have so many bookmarked.

This may help.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #1
10. Maybe this will help (state machine probs)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 04:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
16. NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE: DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY STATISTICS
		
	NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE SUMMARY STATISTICS		

Kerry percentages
Votes in millions						
		
		
2-Nov		2-Nov		3-Nov		3-Nov
4:00pm	      7:33pm	      12:22am      1:25pm
8349		11027		13047		13660	
  Pct   Vote   Pct  Vote   Pct   Vote    Pct	 Vote

GENDER 
  50.48  61.72 50.78  62.08  50.78  62.08  47.78  58.42

REGION
  50.61  61.88 50.84  62.16  50.84  62.16  48.24  58.98

PARTYID
  50.62  61.89 50.24  61.42  50.69  61.97  47.89  58.55

IDEOLOGY
  50.30  61.50 50.07  61.22  49.85  60.95  47.25  57.77

VOTED2000
  51.01  62.36 50.90  62.23  51.41  62.85  48.48  59.27

DECIDED
  51.18  62.57 51.42  62.87  51.23  62.63  47.50  58.07

EDUCATION
  50.32  61.52 50.34  61.55  50.21  61.39  47.82  58.46

RACE
  50.79  62.10 51.04  62.40  50.94  62.28  47.81  58.45

AGE
  50.44  61.67 50.53  61.78  50.53  61.78  47.96  58.64

INCOME
  51.45  62.90 51.01  62.36  51.01  62.36  48.13  58.84

RELIGION
 50.82  62.13 50.85  62.17  50.85  62.17  47.99  58.67

MILITARY
  50.38  61.59 51.20  62.60  51.20  62.60  48.38  59.15

AVERAGE
  50.70  61.99 50.77  62.07  50.80  62.10  47.94  58.61

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 04:06 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. NATIONAL EXIT POLL PROBABILITIES
NATIONAL EXIT POLL PROBABILITIES 
	KERRY POLL DEVIATION TO 48.28% VOTE						
							
	11/2/2004	11/2/2004	11/3/2004	11/3/2004
	3:59pm		7:33pm		12:22am		1:25pm
Respon	8349		11027		13047		13660
							
MoE	1.07%		0.93%		0.86%		0.84%
StDev	0.55%		0.48%		0.44%		0.43%
Kerry%	50.70%		50.77%		50.80%		47.94%

Prob	0.000487%	0.000008%	0.00000043%	94.05%
1 in	205,180		11,781,646	233,712,012	1

The Excel Normal Distribution function:
Prob = 1-NORMDIST(Kerry%,0.4828,StDev,TRUE)							

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. NEP (8349): Original and Adjusted to 100% Horizontal
Edited on Sun May-01-05 06:12 PM by TruthIsAll
	NATIONAL EXIT POLL		
	11/2/2004	3:59:05PM
	8349 RESPONDENTS		

Horizontal Sum: 98.43% /	100%

		KERRY	BUSH	NADER	Kerry (adj)
GENDER	       50.48	47.52	2.00	50.48
GENDER/RACE	50.79	47.81	1.40	50.79
AGE		50.44	48.14	1.00	50.86
INCOME	       51.45	47.13	1.42	51.45
EDUCATION	50.32	48.24	0.88	50.88			

PARTY-ID	50.62	47.88	1.25	50.87			
IDEOLOGY	50.20	47.93	0.88	50.87			
MILITARY	50.38	48.44	1.00	50.56			
RELIGION	50.82	47.80	0.68	51.52			
FIRST VOTE	50.40	47.70	1.90	50.40			

VOTED2000	51.01	46.95	0.79	52.26			
REGION	       50.61	47.87	0.69	51.44			
DECIDED	       51.18	48.13	0.39	51.48			
								
AVERAGE	       50.67	47.81	1.10	51.07			

            MIX	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	Horiz.Adj. 100%
GENDER
Male		42	47	51	2		100	
Female		58	53	45	2		100	
Total		100	50.48	47.52	2		100	50.48

GENDER/ RACE								
Wmale		33	40	58	2		100	
Wfemale		44	47	52	1		100	
NWmale		10	69	28	3		100	
NWfemale	13	77	23	0		100	
		100	50.79	47.81	1.4		100	50.79


AGE								
18-29		15	56	42	1		99	57
30-44		27	48	51	1		100	48
45-59		31	52	47	1		100	52
60+		27	48	50	1		99	49
		100	50.44	48.14	1		99.58	50.86

INCOME								
15K		9	68	32	0		100	
15-30		15	59	39	2		100	
30-50		22	53	46	1		100	
50-75		22	46	52	2		100	
75-100      	14	49	50	1		100	
100-150     	11	44	54	2		100	
150-200     	4	45	54	1		100	
200+		3	40	58	2		100	
		100	51.45	47.13	1.42		100	51.45



EDUCATION		
NO HS		4	50	49	1		100	50
High		22	50	49	1		100	50
Some		30	48	51	0		99	49
ColGrad     	26	48	50	1		99	49
PostG		18	58	40	2		100	58
		100	50.32	48.24	0.88		99.44	50.88



PARTY-ID								
Democrat	39	90	9	1		100	90
Republican	36	7	92	1		100	7
Independent	25	52	45	2		99	53
		100	50.62	47.88	1.25		99.75	50.87

IDEOLOGY	
Liberal     	22	86	12	1		99	87
Moderate	45	58	40	1		99	59
Conservative    33	16	83	1		100	16
		100	50.2	47.93	0.88		99.01	50.87

MILITARY	
Yes		18	43	55	1		99	44
No		82	52	47	1		100	52
		100	50.38	48.44	1		99.82	50.56

RELIGION								
Protest		53	43	56	0		99	44
Catholic	27	50	49	1		100	50
Jewish		3	77	23	0		100	77
Other		7	76	20	3		99	77
None		10	69	28	2		99	70
		100	50.82	47.8	0.68		99.3	51.52

FIRST-TIME VOTE								
Yes		10	54	45	1		100	54
No		90	50	48	2		100	50
		100	50.40	47.7	1.9		100	50.40

VOTED IN 2000 FOR								
NONE		15	62	37	1		100	62
Gore		39	91	8	0		99	92
Bush		42	9	90	0		99	10
Other		4	61	12	16		89	72
		0	51.01	46.95	0.79		98.75	52.26


REGION
East		23	58	41	1		100	58
Midwest     	25	50	49	1		100	50
South		31	44	54	0		98	46
West		21	53	45	1		99	54
		100	50.61	47.87	0.69		99.17	51.44


WHEN DECIDED								
Today		6	52	43	4		99	53
3days		3	50	43	3		96	54
week		2	48	48	3		99	49
month		10	61	38	0		99	62
before      	79	50	50	0		100	50
		100	51.18	48.13	0.39		99.7	51.48

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The Doctor. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 12:59 PM
Response to Original message
2. Well, it seems that you're sure of the conclusion...
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 01:01 PM by Dr_eldritch
And that conclusion seems correct, I'm inclined to agree.

Did you use a standard mode in applying the 'gender trend'?

I haven't the body of work you now have in your head, so I would have to go back and study all your stuff. But I would need to know what the per-state gender correlations were in order to be sure.

{OE} - typo

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. STATE GENDER STATS (ORIGINAL & DIFF. TO KERRY FOR 100% SUM)
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 08:43 PM by TruthIsAll
ANALYSIS OF THE GENDER VOTE									
National vs. State Exit Polls	
http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm								
									
NATIONAL EXIT POLL									
Time	Size	KerryPct							
4pm	8349	50.48							
7:33pm	11027	50.78							
12:22am	13047	50.78							
1:25pm	13660	47.78							


STATE EXIT POLLS									
12:22am 	72714								

Kerry+Bush+Nader <100% (as originally posted, see below)
Kerry Wtd Gender Vote: 50.01								

For Kerry+Bush+Nader = 100% (difference goes to Kerry)
Kerry Wtd Gender Vote: 50.82% (within 0.04% of NEP)								
								
..........................................................									
		Original <100%		Adj 100%	
	Weight	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	KERRY	Diff
AL	730					
M	46.00%	64.00%	0.00%	34.00%	36.00%	2.00%
F	54.00%	53.00%	1.00%	46.00%	46.00%	0.00%
MoE	3.63%	58.06%	0.54%	40.48%	41.40%	0.92%
						
AK	910					
M	48.00%	63.00%	4.00%	32.00%	33.00%	1.00%
F	52.00%	53.00%	2.00%	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%
MoE	3.25%	57.80%	2.96%	38.76%	39.24%	0.48%
						
AZ	1859					
M	47.00%	56.00%	 -   	43.00%	44.00%	1.00%
F	53.00%	50.00%	 -   	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%
MoE	2.27%	52.82%	 -   	46.71%	47.18%	0.47%
						
AR	1402					
M	43.00%	58.00%	1.00%	41.00%	41.00%	0.00%
F	57.00%	49.00%	0.00%	50.00%	51.00%	1.00%
MoE	2.62%	52.87%	0.43%	46.13%	46.70%	0.57%
						
						
CA	919					
M	48.00%	46.00%	0.00%	51.00%	54.00%	3.00%
F	52.00%	41.00%	0.00%	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%
MoE	3.23%	43.40%	0.00%	54.64%	56.60%	1.96%
						

		Original <100%		Adj 100%	
	Weight	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	KERRY	Diff

CO	2515					
M	47.00%	51.00%	1.00%	46.00%	48.00%	2.00%
F	53.00%	49.00%	0.00%	50.00%	51.00%	1.00%
MoE	1.95%	49.94%	0.47%	48.12%	49.59%	1.47%
						
CT	872					
M	47.00%	42.00%	2.00%	55.00%	56.00%	1.00%
F	53.00%	40.00%	1.00%	60.00%	59.00%	-1.00%
MoE	3.32%	40.94%	1.47%	57.65%	57.59%	-0.06%
						
DE	770					
M	43.00%	47.00%	1.00%	51.00%	52.00%	1.00%
F	57.00%	36.00%	1.00%	62.00%	63.00%	1.00%
MoE	3.53%	40.73%	1.00%	57.27%	58.27%	1.00%
						
DC	795					
M	44.00%	11.00%	1.00%	87.00%	88.00%	1.00%
F	56.00%	8.00%	1.00%	92.00%	91.00%	-1.00%
MoE	3.48%	9.32%	1.00%	89.80%	89.68%	-0.12%
						
FL	2846					
M	46.00%	52.00%	1.00%	47.00%	47.00%	0.00%
F	54.00%	48.00%	0.00%	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%
MoE	1.84%	49.84%	0.46%	49.70%	49.70%	0.00%
						
GA	1536					
M	44.00%	60.00%	0	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%
F	56.00%	54.00%	0	46.00%	46.00%	0.00%
MoE	2.50%	56.64%		42.92%	43.36%	0.44%
						
HA	499					
M	46.00%	51.00%	0	49.00%	49.00%	0.00%
F	54.00%	43.00%	0	57.00%	57.00%	0.00%
MoE	4.39%	46.68%		53.32%	53.32%	0.00%
						
ID	539					
M	45.00%	69.00%	0	29.00%	31.00%	2.00%
F	55.00%	63.00%	0	36.00%	37.00%	1.00%
MoE	4.22%	65.70%		32.85%	34.30%	1.45%
						
		Original <100%		Adj 100%	
	Weight	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	KERRY	Diff

IL	1392					
M	46.00%	44.00%	0	55.00%	56.00%	1.00%
F	54.00%	41.00%	0	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%
MoE	2.63%	42.38%	0	56.62%	57.62%	1.00%
						
IN	926					
M	48.00%	60.00%	0.00%	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%
F	52.00%	57.00%	0.00%	42.00%	43.00%	1.00%
MoE	4.39%	58.44%	0.00%	40.56%	41.56%	1.00%
						
IA	2502					
M	46.00%	50.00%	2.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%
F	54.00%	47.00%	1.00%	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%
MoE	4.22%	48.38%	1.46%	49.70%	50.16%	0.46%
						
KS	654					
M	45.00%	65.00%	1.00%	33.00%	34.00%	1.00%
F	55.00%	64.00%	1.00%	35.00%	35.00%	0.00%
MoE	3.83%	64.45%	1.00%	34.10%	34.55%	0.45%
						
KY	1034					
M	46.00%	60.00%	1.00%	38.00%	39.00%	1.00%
F	54.00%	57.00%	0.00%	42.00%	43.00%	1.00%
MoE	3.05%	58.38%	0.46%	40.16%	41.16%	1.00%
						
LA	1669					
M	45.00%	58.00%	1.00%	40.00%	41.00%	1.00%
F	55.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%
MoE	2.40%	54.70%	0.45%	43.85%	44.85%	1.00%
						
ME	1968					
M	47.00%	48.00%	2.00%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%
F	53.00%	41.00%	1.00%	58.00%	58.00%	0.00%
MoE	2.21%	44.29%	1.47%	53.77%	54.24%	0.47%


		Original <100%		Adj 100%	
	Weight	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	KERRY	Diff
						
MD	1000					
M	46.00%	45.00%	0.00%	54.00%	55.00%	1.00%
F	54.00%	40.00%	1.00%	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%
MoE	3.10%	42.30%	0.54%	56.16%	57.16%	1.00%
						
MA	869					
M	48.00%	36.00%	0.00%	61.00%	64.00%	3.00%
F	52.00%	30.00%	0.00%	69.00%	70.00%	1.00%
MoE	3.32%	32.88%	0.00%	65.16%	67.12%	1.96%
						
MI	2452					
M	50.00%	48.00%	1.00%	49.00%	51.00%	2.00%
F	50.00%	45.00%	1.00%	54.00%	54.00%	0.00%
MoE	1.98%	46.50%	1.00%	51.50%	52.50%	1.00%
						
MN	2178					
M	48.00%	45.00%	1.00%	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%
F	52.00%	44.00%	1.00%	54.00%	55.00%	1.00%
MoE	2.10%	44.48%	1.00%	53.52%	54.52%	1.00%
						
MS	798					
M	47.00%	56.00%	1.00%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%
F	53.00%	57.00%	0.00%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%
MoE	3.47%	56.53%	0.47%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%
						
MO	2158					
M	47.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%
F	53.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%
MoE	2.11%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%
						
MT	640					
M	51.00%	57.00%	3.00%	38.00%	40.00%	2.00%
F	49.00%	59.00%	3.00%	37.00%	38.00%	1.00%
MoE	3.87%	57.98%	3.00%	37.51%	39.02%	1.51%
						

		Original <100%		Adj 100%	
	Weight	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	KERRY	Diff


NE	785					
M	48.00%	62.00%	2.00%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%
F	52.00%	63.00%	1.00%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%
MoE	3.50%	62.52%	1.48%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%
						
NV	2116					
M	48.00%	51.00%	3.00%	45.00%	46.00%	1.00%
F	52.00%	45.00%	1.00%	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%
MoE	2.13%	47.88%	1.96%	49.16%	50.16%	1.00%
						
NH	1849					
M	51.00%	47.00%	0.00%	52.00%	53.00%	1.00%
F	49.00%	41.00%	2.00%	58.00%	57.00%	-1.00%
MoE	2.28%	44.06%	0.98%	54.94%	54.96%	0.02%
						
NM	1951					
M	46.00%	48.00%	2.00%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%
F	54.00%	47.00%	1.00%	51.00%	52.00%	1.00%
MoE	2.22%	47.46%	1.46%	50.08%	51.08%	1.00%
						
NY	1476					
MoE	2.55%	33.80%		65.10%	65.10%	0.00%
						
NC	2099					
MoE	2.14%	51.80%		48.20%	48.20%	0.00%
						
ND	649					
M	49.00%	68.00%	2.00%	29.00%	30.00%	1.00%
F	51.00%	61.00%	2.00%	36.00%	37.00%	1.00%
MoE	3.85%	64.43%	2.00%	32.57%	33.57%	1.00%
						

		Original <100%		Adj 100%	
	Weight	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	KERRY	Diff

OH	1963					
M	47.00%	49.00%	0	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%
F	53.00%	47.00%	0	53.00%	53.00%	0.00%
MoE	2.21%	47.94%	0	52.06%	52.06%	0.00%
						
OK	1539					
M	48.00%	66.00%	0	33.00%	34.00%	1.00%
F	52.00%	64.00%	0	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%
MoE	2.50%	64.96%	0	34.56%	35.04%	0.48%
						
OR	1054					
M	45.00%	55.00%	0	42.00%	45.00%	3.00%
F	55.00%	42.00%	0	57.00%	58.00%	1.00%
MoE	3.02%	47.85%	0	50.25%	52.15%	1.90%
						
PA	1930					
M	47.00%	48.00%	0	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%
F	53.00%	43.00%	0	56.00%	57.00%	1.00%
MoE	2.23%	45.35%	0	54.12%	54.65%	0.53%
						
RI	809					
M	47.00%	37.00%	2.00%	60.00%	61.00%	1.00%
F	53.00%	33.00%	2.00%	65.00%	65.00%	0.00%
MoE	3.45%	34.88%	2.00%	62.65%	63.12%	0.47%
						
SC	1935					
M	43.00%	58.00%	1.00%	40.00%	41.00%	1.00%
F	57.00%	50.00%	1.00%	49.00%	49.00%	0.00%
MoE	2.23%	53.44%	1.00%	45.13%	45.56%	0.43%
						
SD	1495					
M	51.00%	61.00%	3.00%	35.00%	36.00%	1.00%
F	49.00%	61.00%	1.00%	38.00%	38.00%	0.00%
MoE	2.53%	61.00%	2.02%	36.47%	36.98%	0.51%
						

		Original <100%		Adj 100%	
	Weight	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	KERRY	Diff


TN	1774					
M	48.00%	58.00%	2.00%	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%
F	52.00%	58.00%	0.00%	42.00%	42.00%	0.00%
MoE	2.33%	58.00%	0.96%	40.56%	41.04%	0.48%
						
TX	1671					
M	46.00%	59.00%	0	39.00%	41.00%	2.00%
F	54.00%	65.00%	0	34.00%	35.00%	1.00%
MoE	2.40%	62.24%	0	36.30%	37.76%	1.46%
						
UT	798					
M	46.00%	67.00%	3.00%	28.00%	30.00%	2.00%
F	54.00%	69.00%	1.00%	30.00%	30.00%	0.00%
MoE	3.47%	68.08%	1.92%	29.08%	30.00%	0.92%
						
VT	685					
M	45.00%	36.00%	2.00%	62.00%	62.00%	0.00%
F	55.00%	31.00%	3.00%	65.00%	66.00%	1.00%
MoE	3.74%	33.25%	2.55%	63.65%	64.20%	0.55%
						
VA	1432					
MoE	2.59%	49.70%		50.20%	50.20%	0.00%
						
WA	2123					
M	43.00%	48.00%	1.00%	49.00%	51.00%	2.00%
F	57.00%	41.00%	1.00%	58.00%	58.00%	0.00%
MoE	2.13%	44.01%	1.00%	54.13%	54.99%	0.86%
						
WV	1722					
M	47.00%	54.00%	1.00%	44.00%	45.00%	1.00%
F	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%
MoE	2.36%	54.00%	1.00%	44.53%	45.00%	0.47%
						
WI	2223					
M	47.00%	52.00%	2.00%	45.00%	46.00%	1.00%
F	53.00%	46.00%	1.00%	53.00%	53.00%	0.00%
MoE	2.08%	48.82%	1.47%	49.24%	49.71%	0.47%
						
WY	684					
M	51.00%	67.00%	3.00%	28.00%	30.00%	2.00%
F	49.00%	64.00%	1.00%	34.00%	35.00%	1.00%
MoE	3.75%	65.53%	2.02%	30.94%	32.45%	1.51%
						
..................................................................						
Vote = total state vote (millions)
Size = state exit poll sample size
MOE  = state exit poll margin of error
Pct  = Kerry exit poll percentage
Wtd  = state weight = state vote/122.17mm 
Diff = Pct difference before and after 100% adj.

			Posted Totals <100%	    Adj. Totals  =100%	
	Vote	Size	MoE	Pct	Wtd		Pct	Wtd	Diff
Sum/Avg	122.17	72714	2.89%	48.12%	50.01%		48.82%	50.82%	0.80%
									
AL	1.883	730	3.63%	40.5%	0.62%		41.4%	0.64%	0.92%
AK	0.312	910	3.25%	38.8%	0.10%		39.2%	0.10%	0.48%
AZ	2.013	1859	2.27%	46.7%	0.77%		47.2%	0.78%	0.47%
AR	1.056	1402	2.62%	46.1%	0.40%		46.7%	0.40%	0.57%
CA	12.392	919	3.23%	54.6%	5.54%		56.6%	5.74%	1.96%

CO	2.128	2515	1.95%	48.1%	0.84%		49.6%	0.86%	1.47%
CT	1.579	872	3.32%	57.7%	0.74%		57.6%	0.74%	-0.06%
DC	0.227	795	3.48%	89.8%	0.17%		89.7%	0.28%	-0.12%
DE	0.375	770	3.53%	57.3%	0.18%		58.3%	0.11%	1.00%
FL	7.604	2846	1.84%	49.7%	3.09%		49.7%	3.09%	0.00%

GA	3.299	1536	2.50%	42.9%	1.16%		43.4%	1.17%	0.44%
HA	0.429	499	4.39%	53.3%	0.19%		53.3%	0.19%	0.00%
ID	0.598	539	4.22%	32.9%	0.16%		34.3%	0.17%	1.45%
IL	5.275	1392	2.63%	56.6%	2.44%		57.6%	2.49%	1.00%
IN	2.468	926	4.39%	40.6%	0.82%		41.6%	0.84%	1.00%

IA	1.505	2502	4.22%	49.7%	0.61%		50.2%	0.62%	0.46%
KS	1.188	654	3.83%	34.1%	0.33%		34.6%	0.34%	0.45%
KY	1.796	1034	3.05%	40.2%	0.59%		41.2%	0.61%	1.00%
LA	1.939	1669	2.40%	43.9%	0.70%		44.9%	0.71%	1.00%
ME	0.741	1968	2.21%	53.8%	0.33%		54.2%	0.33%	0.47%

MD	2.384	1000	3.10%	56.2%	1.10%		57.2%	1.12%	1.00%
MA	2.905	869	3.32%	65.2%	1.55%		67.1%	1.60%	1.96%
MI	4.838	2452	1.98%	51.5%	2.04%		52.5%	2.08%	1.00%
MN	2.823	2178	2.10%	53.5%	1.24%		54.5%	1.26%	1.00%
MS	1.138	798	3.47%	43.0%	0.40%		43.0%	0.40%	0.00%

MO	2.731	2158	2.11%	47.0%	1.05%		48.0%	1.07%	1.00%
MT	0.450	640	3.87%	37.5%	0.14%		39.0%	0.14%	1.51%
NE	0.777	785	3.50%	36.0%	0.23%		36.0%	0.23%	0.00%
NV	0.826	2116	2.13%	49.2%	0.33%		50.2%	0.34%	1.00%
NH	0.676	1849	2.28%	54.9%	0.30%		55.0%	0.30%	0.02%

NJ	3.610	1520	2.56%	53.4%	1.58%		53.4%	1.58%	0.00%
NM	0.756	1951	2.22%	50.1%	0.31%		51.1%	0.32%	1.00%
NY	7.389	1476	2.55%	65.1%	3.94%		65.1%	3.94%	0.00%
NC	3.501	2099	2.14%	48.2%	1.38%		48.2%	1.38%	0.00%
ND	0.313	649	3.85%	32.6%	0.08%		33.6%	0.09%	1.00%

OH	5.625	1963	2.21%	52.1%	2.40%		52.1%	2.40%	0.00%
OK	1.464	1539	2.50%	34.6%	0.41%		35.0%	0.42%	0.48%
OR	1.828	1054	3.02%	50.3%	0.75%		52.2%	0.78%	1.90%
PA	5.766	1930	2.23%	54.1%	2.55%		54.7%	2.58%	0.53%
RI	0.436	809	3.45%	62.7%	0.22%		63.1%	0.23%	0.47%

SC	1.616	1935	2.23%	45.1%	0.60%		45.6%	0.60%	0.43%
SD	0.388	1495	2.53%	36.5%	0.12%		37.0%	0.12%	0.51%
TN	2.437	1774	2.33%	40.6%	0.81%		41.0%	0.82%	0.48%
TX	7.410	1671	2.40%	36.3%	2.20%		37.8%	2.29%	1.46%
UT	0.927	798	3.47%	29.1%	0.22%		30.0%	0.23%	0.92%

VT	0.311	685	3.74%	63.7%	0.16%		64.2%	0.16%	0.55%
VA	3.193	1432	2.59%	50.2%	1.31%		50.2%	1.31%	0.00%
WA	2.857	2123	2.13%	54.1%	1.27%		55.0%	1.29%	0.86%
WV	0.756	1722	2.36%	44.5%	0.28%		45.0%	0.28%	0.47%
WI	2.993	2223	2.08%	49.2%	1.21%		49.7%	1.22%	0.47%
WY	0.243	684	3.75%	30.9%	0.06%		32.5%	0.06%	1.51%
						
						
						
						
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MontageOfFreedom Donating Member (633 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 08:25 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Truly telling tale of numbers. n/t
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The Doctor. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 08:42 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. How so?
I'm not sure I see what you are alluding to beyond the mode implied.

If you have an insight- I'd love to get the angle. I spend so much time in broad vision I tend to miss nuance sometimes.

Nice alliteration too.

:thumbsup:
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MontageOfFreedom Donating Member (633 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 10:07 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. This piece of affirmation right here.
"Pct Wtd Diff
Sum/Avg 122.17 72714 2.89% 48.12% 50.01% 48.82% 50.82% 0.80% "

As implied, the differential mean is truly telling because the actual percentage is near the exact same, as the original exit poll.

This kind of polling continuity can never be coincidence if you look at it carefully. A sampling adjustment like this would take possible computer tampering.

Whereas the vote totals themselves, are far more highly likely to exhibit this kind of difference. Because with all computers things are made to be exact. They can't be offset or character of normal error or human incompetence. Otherwise, the percentages would be far more diverse and widespread.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 07:00 AM
Response to Reply #5
21. Gender analysis - IS A SMOKING GUN n/t
/
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. No conclusion; that's for you to draw. Just the facts, which are...
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 09:19 PM by TruthIsAll
Fact 1:
Kerry won the National Exit Poll with 50.78%, according to the Gender category percentages.

Fact 2:
Many State Exit poll percentages for Kerry, Bush and Nader/Other do not sum horizontally to 100%, as they should (see the table).

Fact 3:
Kerry wins the State Exit Poll Gender demographic with 50.82% when the difference between the total and 100% (0, 1, 2 or 3%) is added to Kerry's state percentages in order to make the sum equal 100%. The state vote/national vote ratio weighting factor is applied to calculate the equivalent state-weighted national percentage.

Fact 4:
There is just a 0,04% difference between the National Exit poll (50.78%) and the State-weighted national poll (50.82%). This would seem to indicate that the national and state exit polls are in complete confirmation with one another.

Fact 5:
The fact that the state percentages, when adjusted in Kerry's favor, resulted in an exact match with the national exit poll may be just a coincidence. Of course, one must first do the math and apply the adjustments before even having a reason to wonder if it was.

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Sancho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. I love it...
and I'd bet that multivariate analyses of other variables would conclude the same thing...but without the RAW data, we can only do one comparison at a time, but E-M KNOWS....and they aren't telling....which gives us the answer!

IF the profiles of voters don't show "bias" efffects...and if the sample is representative, then the election was HACKED...way to go TIA
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 10:34 PM
Response to Original message
12. We need the other state demographics to compare to the NEP
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 10:37 PM by TruthIsAll
1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS

Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=301075


HERE'S THAT NUMBER AGAIN:
THE CATEGORY SUMMARY AVERAGE IS 50.81%!

WEIGHTED SUMMARY			
CATEGORY       Bush   Kerry   Nader			
			
GENDER        48.22%  50.78%  1.00%			
EDUCATION     48.05%  50.21%  1.17%			
INCOME        48.12%  51.42%  0.95%			

RACE          47.86%  50.94%  1.00%			
AGE           48.17%  50.53%  1.00%			
PARTYID       47.77%  50.69%	 0.92%

IDEOLOGY      48.15%  49.85%  1.00%			
RELIGION      48.19%  51.55%  1.19%			
MILITARY      47.62%  51.20%  1.00%			

DECIDED       47.95%  51.23%  0.54%			
ISSUES        47.92%  50.80%  1.28%			
REGION        47.95%  50.53%  1.00%			
			
AVERAGE       48.00%  50.81%  1.00%			

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 01:44 AM
Response to Original message
13. The state samples include the national samples for that state....
Edited on Sun May-01-05 02:30 AM by kiwi_expat
....is that a problem for any of your various NEP-state vs. NEP-national analyses?

Looking at the Univ. of Michigan NEP data:

The 49 Ohio NEP precincts contain 2040 respondents. 404 of those respondents filled out the national questionnaires. The rest (1636) filled out the state questionnaires.

The responses from both groups are used in the NEP state totals.


(Blue22 has prepared 3 spreadsheets on Ohio NEP data, showing raw and final-weighted figures by respondent, with precinct totals. He has kindly offered to e-mail the spreadsheets to anyone who PMs him their e-mail address.)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 03:56 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. Not at all. The subset of the full set confirms - it doesn't have to.
This also confirms that the National subset is a representative random sample of the full State randonly selected sample.

13,047 National (MoE = 0.86%) randomly selected from 73,000 randomly-selected in 50 states and DC, with MoE's ranging from 1.84% to over 4%.

Yes, the polling was just fine, thank you.


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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 08:16 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. Deleted message
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 02:12 AM
Response to Original message
14. Coincidence? I think not.
Edited on Sun May-01-05 02:14 AM by autorank
Your questions is a good one:

Now, here is the question:

Is the fact that the state percentages did not at first add
to 100%, but after the differences were allocated to Kerry,
the state polls exactly matched the National Exit Poll, just
a coincidence?


The state percentages not adding up to 100% may be an example of "the new math," something the California schools tortured me with in 8th grade Algebra. That math made no sense whatsoever. Or, more likely, it's just another sloppy contrivance, among so many others, used by whomever to hedge the truth, namely that Kerry won the election and that enormous fraud took place. There are really just a few players involved and none of them has incentive to talk. The Exit Pollsters were an artifact from a previous time and proved to an inconvenience. I suspect that the parallel paths of election fraud and Exit and other polling proceeded without intersection until someone on the election fraud path looked over..."oh, my, must get to Exit Pollsters and have them gum up their own works"...take a dive, so to speak, for the larger good.

How many ways does it need to be shown...this election was a joke. We are at the point where the entire body of statistics and probability theory need to be thrown out and replaced by a grotesque faith-based system of justifications that allow the monster to rule in our nation's capitol.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-05 07:01 PM
Response to Original message
20. The missing Kerry votes found: X= 100%- Kerry-Bush-Nader
Edited on Thu May-05-05 07:02 PM by TruthIsAll
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