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A Must Read ** Breakthrough ** EXIT POLL ANALYSIS FOR 47 STATES

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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 10:17 AM
Original message
A Must Read ** Breakthrough ** EXIT POLL ANALYSIS FOR 47 STATES

The following comes via a friend of GregD's - he only has one post so far this one. So I am posting it to a new thread. It deserves it. The following t is in short MIND BLOWINGLY USEFUL. It takes TIA and Faun Otter's initial analysis of the Exit Poll data to another level of sophistication and depth. It is a must read for everybody on this forum.

Please keep this kicked and say hello to new DUer JS

Al

**********

To Those Who Seek Information As A Basis For Action Regarding Bush's "Victory":



I examined the discrepancies between the actual vote tabulations as reported and the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll results in 47 states, incl. D.C. (in 4 statesNJ,NY,NC,VAI did not have early exit poll results available, and the later results had already been amended to reflect input of actual vote totals, which rendered them corrupt as exit polls and useless for the purpose of checking the veracity of actual vote totals).

I noticed an overall red shift (to Bush) across the spectrum of states, but the shift was significantly nonuniform.

Having divided the 47 states examined into two groups, 35 noncritical states and 12 critical or suspect states (Nebraska included because of ES&S control and prior anomalies even though not a battleground state), I calculated that the average discrepancy in the 35 safe states was a +1.4% red shift, that is the average of the vote totals in each state was 1.4% more favorable to Bush than what the exit polls predicted (= total movement of 2.8%). In the 12 critical states (CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA) the average discrepancy was a 2.5% red shift (= total movement of 5.0%), nearly twice that in the safe states. This in spite of the fact that the average sample size in the critical states was nearly twice that in the noncritical states and should have produced significantly more accurate results.

Further, assuming a 3% margin of error and 95% confidence interval for each state poll (the standard Mitofksy protocol, but a conservative assumption here, since the sample sizes were significantly increased in critical states), the red shift exceeded the margin of error in 4 of the 12 critical states (and equalled it in a fifth). The chance of this occurring in 4 of the 12 states in the absence of "mistabulation" can be computed using a simple probability equation and is approximately 0.002 or one in five-hundred. It's a relatively crude analysis and better analysis would have to wait on more complete data, but basically what it's telling us is that we can say with 99.8% certainty that "mistabulation" played some significant role in this election.

<big> From the specific discrepancies in Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico; from the amazing voter turnout, which any analyst on truth serum will admit should have guaranteed a Kerry victory; from what we know, but the media has now chosen to forget, about how suspect and partisan the vote counting equipment is; and from pieces of circumstantial evidence, such as Bush not deigning to campaign in Ohio (crazy unless the fix was in): we can be all but certain that another election has been stolen and that the toilet has been flushed on our democracy.</big>

Kerry, inanely, has conceded. But the truth remains to be dug out to lie in the light and stink in the open air. If we can do no more, let's at least make sure we don't rest until we have done that.


J onathan Simon (Alliance for Democracy)

Please provide me all of the data you were able to obtain including non-critical states.

I forwarded your previous information to a correspondent at AP AP is supposed to have all of the raw data that the exit poll people were providing to the media.

Chuck

Here are the rest. See if you can get your hands on the early exit poll results, the earlier the better, as they would be uncontaminated. Warren Mitofsky meanwhile says that he knew in the afternoon that his exit polls were off in nine states, but this does not sit well with me (I'd need to know how he would know at that point and, assuming he knew, why he would go ahead and promulgate them without caveat?). Way too much work went into getting the exit polls right this time for me to just accept that they can't do as well as they were doing routinely in the 80s and 90s. It is not, like stained glass, a lost art.

Critical States (12)



Exit Poll Data Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time of poll ET, and "Red" Shift%

Note: Red Shift = < ;(Btab% - Bep%) + (Kep% - Ktab)>/2 tab= tabulated vote, ep=exit poll

The number is positive with net movement toward Bush, negative (blue shift) with net movement toward Kerry. I'll take Florida (early) as an example:

Exit Poll % : B=49.8% K=49.7%

Tab (99% precincts) B=52% K=47%

Red Shift: < ;(52% - 49.8%) + (49.7% - 47%)>/2 = (2.2% + 2.7%)/2 = +2.5%

I'm aware that I've played fast and loose with significant figures; a more refined analysis would get at least one more sig fig out of the tabulated.

State B K #Resp Time Red Shift

Colorado 49.9 48.1 2515 12:24 AM 2.6%

Florida 49.8 49.7 2846 12:21 2.5

(Florida 51.4 47.6 2862 1:01 0.6 )

Michigan 46.5 51.5 2452 12:21 1.0

Minnesota 44.5 53.5 2178 12:23 3.0

Nebraska 62.5 36.0 785 12:22 4.3

(Nebraska "critical" because of ES&S dominance and history)

Nevada 47.9 49.2 2116 12:23 2.2

New Hamp. 44.1 54.9 1849 12:24 4.9

New Mex. 47.5 50.1 1951 12:24 1.8

Ohio 47.9 52.1 1963 7:32 PM 3.1

(Ohio 50.9 48.6 2020 1:41 AM 0.3)

Penn 45.4 54.1 1930 12:21 3.4

Wisconsin 48.8 49.2 2223 12:21 (-)0.3

Iowa 48.4 49.7 2502 12:23 2.0

12 (Critical) State Average Red Shift +2.5%

Note that because of rolling updates, some states may have been relatively pure at c. 12:20-12:25, while others may already have been slightly corrupted. My guess is that most of these were still OK at these times.

Non-Critical States (35)



Exit Poll Data Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time of poll ET, and "Red" Shift%

Alabama 58.1 40.5 730 12:17 AM 4.2

Alaska 57.8 38.8 910 01:00 AM 4.0 (keep in mind AK time zone, this is still early)

Arizona 52.8 46.7 1859 12:19 2.5

Arkansas 52.9 46.1 1402 12:22 1.1

Calif 46.6 54.6 1919 12:23 (-)1.5

CT 40.9 57.7 872 12:22 3.4

(CT 44.4 54.7 872 12:53) 0.2

DC 8.2 89.8 795 12:22 0.3

Delaware 40.7 57.3 770 12:22 4.8

Georgia 56.6 42.9 1536 12:22 2.2

Hawaii 46.7 53.3 499 12:22 (-)1.2

Idaho 65.7 32.9 559 12:22 2.6

Illinois 42.4 56.6 1392 12:23 1.6

Indiana 58.4 40.6 926 12:22 1.6

Kansas 64.5 34.1 654 12:22 (-)2.7

Kentucky 58.4 40.2 1034 12:22 0.9

Louisiana 54.7 43.9 1669 12:21 2.1

Maine 44.3 53.8 1968 12:22 0.8

Maryland 42.3 56.2 1000 12:22 0.5

Mass 32.9 65.2 889 12:22 3.7

Miss 56.5 43.0 798 12:22 3.3

Missouri 52.0 47.0 2158 12:21 1.5

Montana 58.0 37.5 640 12:22 (-)0.3

ND 64.4 32.6 649 12:22 (-)2.4

OK 65.0 34.6 1539 12:23 0.8

Oregon 47.9 50.3 1064 12:22 (-)1.3

RI 34.9 62.7 809 12:22 3.4

SC 53.4 45.1 1735 12:24 4.4

SD 61.0 36.5 1495 12:24 (-)1.8

Tenn 58.0 40.6 1774 12:23 (-)1.7

Texas 62.2 36.3 1671 12:22 (-)2.0

Utah 68.1 29.1 798 12:22 2.5

Vermont 33.3 63.7 685 12:22 5.2

Wash 44.0 54.1 2123 12:38 1.6

WV 54.0 44.5 1722 12:24 1.8

Wyoming 65.5 30.9 684 12:22 2.7

35 (NonCritical) State Average Red Shift +1.4

The following state data was obtained too late and highly contaminated with actual tabulation results:

NJ 46.2 52.8 1520 12:50 (-)0.2

NY 40.9 58.2 1452 12:52 (-)0.4

NC 56.5 42.7 2167 12:48 (-)0.4

Virginia 54.1 45.4 1431 12:56 (-)0.4

Important Points To Note: The average sample size for the critical states is 2109, for the noncritical states 1192, roughly half the size. All else being equal, higher sample size correlates with smaller margin of error, greater accuracy. And yet: the average Red Shift in the noncritical states is 1.4%, but in the critical states it is 2.5%.

Why? Hard evidence must be found to account for this egregious statistical pattern and to prove the actual fraud.This preliminary analysis is fairly crude, and there are probably other, more telling ways to slice and dice the data. Also, note that there were three exit poll "sweeps" which led to updates around 4 pm, 8 pm, 12 midnight, following which the "exit polls" were really contaminated by tabulated data and of no use at all as a check mechanism. I caught mostly the third sweep here (c. 12:20 am); my guess is the second sweep would show even more dramatic discrepancies. While the first sweep has come under skeptical attack for having a too great female (pro-Kerry) weighting (the figure I heard was 58%/42% female), it is at least plausible to me that morning/daytime voters would be disproportionately female because of work schedules, so it may well be just one of the specious rationalizations behind a very determined coverup (we just don't know).

CheersJonathan Simon

Jonathan Simon

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da_chimperor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 10:21 AM
Response to Original message
1. Daaaaaaamn, so this is statistical evidence of the funny business.
kick eom
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 10:54 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. I have done a similar analysis for the 2002 Senate races.
Edited on Wed Nov-10-04 11:02 AM by TruthIsAll
I calculated the probabiltity that 4 out of 10 critical states would all revert from the final polls which were solid for the Dems (e.g. Cleland-GA) to the Repubs.

The same analysis can be done here. I employed the NORMAL DISTRIBUTION to calculate the probabilities WHICH I LATER CONFIRMED using THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION.

I will adapt the same analysis to this new data.

Its DEJA VU all over again.

Except this time it's not a few Senate races.

It's the Senate, Congress and the Presidency.

The biggest election heist of ALL TIME

Oh, I forgot the 2000 selection.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Hi TIA... Cool stuff eh
Meanwhile I will not stop until I get all the exit poll data before it got screwed with.

al
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nolabels Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #7
15. So you stating that the last 2 elections this was also done in part ......
some or similar, but now it was done wholesale. across the states?

This election does seem to give that pattern and should be able to show the parallels. I have very poor math skills, but always try to notice tendencies, movements and trends. Many of the things posted here on DU also had indicated the right side of the political spectrum was operating on a paper tiger and borrowing money in everybody's name to do it.

Thanks for the information :kick:
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #15
33. Precisely!!!!....
... i think you've got it.
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da_chimperor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #7
20. Good going, what made it even cooler is I just took statistics
so I know what you're talking about in regards to the confidence level, the distributions, etc. This is pretty fucked up stuff.
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glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #7
44. Could we expect any less from the same people who gave us the biggest S&L
heist of all time? And let us not forget the ongoing Iraq War heist, as yet unbranded.
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Carl Brennan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 07:08 PM
Response to Reply #7
46. Great TIA, keep us posted.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #1
39. My Election night analysis on Exit Poll discrepancies
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molly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
2. Thankyou and Welcome!
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Mira Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. This was "Hard Work"
and I - too - thank you!
Maybe it will come down to people like you and Olberman and Nader to blow this thing wide open - it surely needs to happen
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 10:32 AM
Response to Original message
3. Check the margin of "victory"
Look at Oregon. Exit polls 50.3-47.9. Final vote, 52-48. We ended up with a 2 point shift to Kerry. Did they not need us, or was there a margin size that was targeted.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. Undecideds went to Kerry
Exit polls: 50.3 Kerry
Final poll: 52% Kerry

Exit poll: 47.9 Bush
Final poll: 48% Bush

Just what we've alwys been told: Most undecideds go to the challenger.
Oregon was not targeted because it was all paper.

Back to the Future: Paper Ballots!
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. Exit polls already voted
So there's no undecideds to talk about. And I thought people were looking at Opti-Scan tabulating problems in addition to other problems. Maybe it's because we don't transmit our ballots through precincts, making it harder to screw with the results. We're one of the few states that went towards Kerry after the exit polls, that seems an important factor to me.
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berry Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. Excuse the ignorant question, but
I thought Oregon had ALL absentee (mail-in) ballots. So how can there be exit polls? If it was just a random sample of people after 11-2, couldn't people say they voted even when they hadn't (a common phenomenon, I'm told)?

I expect I have some facts wrong here. Would appreciate being set straight. Thanks.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #13
36. Phone polls?
I don't know. But exit poll numbers are in the list in the op. Also, about half the people drop off ballots on the last 2 days. You could put people at the most used drop off places around the state and do exit polls that way.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #10
21. Yer right
I screwed up, thanks for pointing that out, sandnsea!
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #3
17. Where did they conduct exit polls in Oregon?
Edited on Wed Nov-10-04 11:41 AM by Straight Shooter
I read yesterday there were no exit polls in Oregon, since it's a mail-in ballot state. Of course, we're also allowed to drop off our ballots.

Interesting. Anybody factoring in the Sproul company which trashed our Dem registrations and is under investigation by SoS Bradbury?

On a larger scale, trashed registrations in Nevada, too, and God knows where else under a different company and it wasn't caught. Remember, only one person came forward in Nevada. Just one honest person. Mind-boggling.

Edit: Forgot my manners. Thanks for the post, althecat! :thumbsup:
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 10:35 AM
Response to Original message
5. Thanks.
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sadiesworld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 10:42 AM
Response to Original message
6. .
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Faun Otter Donating Member (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
11. This is a huge red flag
Statistics is not a method of proof. It is a method of showing probability.

The exit poll/reported vote total discrepancy suggests something other than pure chance, If it wasn't a chance event then either the exit polls were wrong or the vote totals reported do not reflect the votes people believe they cast, or both.

I do not believe the story about on weighting (58%/42% female) being the source of error since the final ratio was close to 54-46 and the female to male voting differential was not more than 6% favorable to Bush. Thus a change in weighting should give less than a half percentage point of error.

Faun
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212demop Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
12. thanks for doing this.
I must admit all this math has my head spinning. I'm glad there are people out there on our side with a handle on this stuff.
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imaginary girl Donating Member (345 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:33 AM
Response to Original message
14. In DNA evidence,
Isn't a result of 99.8% considered conclusive? Ie acceptable in a court of law?
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PatsFan2004 Donating Member (245 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. With DNA, 99.8% is not conclusive.
Edited on Wed Nov-10-04 11:45 AM by PatsFan2004
Odds approaching one in a several million are fairly conclusive when you have other factors (evidence) to back you up. As a juror, I would be loathe to convict on a percentage of 2 out of 1000 (99.8%).
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #14
19. I've worked in criminal courts
I've never heard that stat mentioned. I think the probabilities of DNA match are generally higher, but it's an interesting observation you've made.

Unfortunately this case is not in criminal court. Hopefully, though, it will be one day. The trial of the century.
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Petrodollar Warfare Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
16. Mathematical proof that TV network polling results are FRADULENT
Edited on Wed Nov-10-04 12:40 PM by Petrodollar Warfare
I'm going to point out two critical issues listed in the above data. (If anyone has similar exit polling data for other states and preserved it on screen shots about 1am on election night that would be great).

OK, for anyone who finished High School, this math is pretty simple stuff, and it shows that we are being lied to on a profound scale in at least two of the critical states in last week's election. First, please disregard any "spin" you might have heard from GOP operatives and media pundits about how they had to "reweight" some of exit polls because they polled "too many African-Americans," or too "many women" in the early exit polls, etc. That is all irrelevant as far as the following analysis is concerned. Let's stick to basics.

Below is the exit polling data for Ohio which includes the final 6pm data based on a sample of 1963 voters with Kerry in a comfortable lead (at 7:32pm), along with the mysterious 1:41am update of the data that suddenly showed Bush with a comfortable lead. Please note the sample size of voters increased from 1963 to 2020, a total of 57 exit voters.

Ohio 47.9 52.1 1963 7:32 PM 3.1
(Ohio 50.9 48.6 2020 1:41 AM 0.3)

Let's do the math. From the final exit polls till after midnight it showed Kerry in the lead:

Bush (.479 x 1963 voters) = 940 voters
Kerry (.521 x 1963 voters) = 1022 voters


...but at 1:41am exit poll update/"sweep?" occured via AP and suddenly Bush gains a huge post-midnight advantge....but is this possible if the sample size only increased from 1963 to 2020, a total of 57?

Let's do the math:
Bush now (.509 x 2020) = 1028 voters
Kerry now (.486 x 2020) = 981 voters


Well, how is it possible that Bush gained 88 voters (!) given the sample size increased by only 57, while Kerry lost 41 voters?(!) Let me repeat something for the faith-based community and or treasonous media pundits who ignore what we in the reality-based community see as obviously fradulent data. Why? Simple...

THIS IS NOT MATHEMATICALLY POSSIBLE!

Do you want confirmation of the data? No problem, the below thread actually has screen shots of CNN as they mysteriously changed the data at 1:41am...and it even includes the gender break-downs.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph ...

Well, maybe the exit polls in Ohio were wrong? No sir, the same post-midnight update/sweep that shows manipulation of the exit polling data also occured in Florida at 1:01 am...and the similarity is striking. Here's the 12:21am data that reflects the final real exit poll data, along with the post 1am exit poll "sweep" of the data...

Florida 49.8 49.7 2846 12:21am 2.5
(Florida 51.4 47.6 2862 1:01am 0.6 )

So, at 12:21 am...
Bush had (.498 x 2846 voters) = 1417 voters
Kerry had (.497 x 2846 voters) = 1414 voters


...but at 1:01am the final exit poll sweep occured via AP and suddenly Bush gains a huge post-midnight advantge....but how? The sample size only increased from 2846 to 2862, a total of 16 voters(!)

Again, let's do some High School math:
Bush now has (.514 x 2862) = 1471 voters
Kerry now has (.476 x 2862) = 1362 voters


Hmmm, if we are to believe this, at 1:01am Bush gained 54 voters (nevermind the sample size only increasd by 16), while poor John Kerry lost 52 voters (again, nevermind that the sample size increased by only 16). Regardless of whatever the latest spin is about "crashed servers" giving late exit poll updates the fact is these "updates" are not mathematically possible within the known Universe. Does our subservient media think their tresonous acts against The American People will go unnoticed? Not for this Patriot.

AGAIN, THIS IS NOT MATHEMATICALLY POSSIBLE!

So folks, either we have entered the Orwellian Universe where the laws of mathematics simply do not apply, or the 1am "exit poll sweep" attempted to match the unauditable machine counts with the real exit polls, but in order to do so it had to violate the laws of mathematics, and reverse the data from the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and final exit polls that showed a Kerry victory.

In the reality-based community that is called FRAUD, but in the faith-based community this is called "conspiracy theory."

Based on my background in Information Security (INFOSEC), I would suggest we may be looking at someone who performed at 1am manipulation of the AP "exit poll" data with an incremental increase in sample size that was done sloppily and in violation of mathematical laws, and a remote hack of the Windows-based machines that tabulated the states total votes (Both Ohio and Florida could be hacked from anywhere if the modem access numbers were compromised), or we could be looking at perhaps a "man-in-the-middle" attack to change county/state totals in which the county or counties dialed up a 'rogue labtop,' who then forwarded the "massaged" data on to the central GEMs computer/server for the state's tabulated results.

This is not improbable given that INFOSEC/Computer Scientists have documented and tested how simple it is to manipulate the data in the GEMS server. This is simple to accomplish given the known security flaws in the Diebold system (and possibly the ES&S sytem), and it is not difficult to change what is in essence a Microsoft Access Database.

All you really need are the modem access number(s), and maybe a simple password cracking program, assuming you were an "outsider" hacker without any help from the "inside" (ie. Diebold/ES&E or a county/state elections employee).

Would you like verification of that statement? No problem, and I should note the following are only two of seven findings from an independent review of the Diebold touchscreen system which they set up in a "real-world" enviroment to test its security from hacking - the results were shocking. (Many of these issues likely applies to ES&S as well). Note, this study was done in jan. 2004

"1. The GEMS server lacks several critical security updates from Microsoft. As a result, the team sucessfully exploited a well-known vulnerability using a software product known as Canvas"..."By sucessfully directing Canvas at the GEMS modem interface, the team was able to remotely upload, download and execute files with full system administrator privledges. All that was required was a valid phone number for the GEMS server." (page 20 of 25)

"6. Social Engineering/Phone line hijacking: The procedure by which precincts upload votes to their LBE (Local Board of Elections) is vulnerable to a "man-in-the-middle" attack. This is the result of an incompolete implemetation of the SSL protocol."..."Specifically, the team demonstrated how a labtop could act as a GEMS server. If one could convince the precinct judge to dial into an attacker's labtop then that laptop would not only receive the election results, it would be able to acquire the name and password to access the GEMS sever. With this name and password in hand, the attacker could upload modified results to the GEMS server - all in real time." (page 21 of 25)

Trusted Agent Report Diebold AccuVote-TS Voting System (January 20, 2004)
http://www.raba.com/press/TA_Report_AccuVote.pdf

Bottom Line: We are being lied to about the actual exit polling data, and the networks are not addressing the divergence that seems to plague only certain states, which either in part or in whole use e-Voting machines. Moreoever, the final exit poll variances in some of the "swing states" is both divergent from the (pre-sweep) exit polling data, and based on the above data it was not a random event as would be expected if the exit polling methodology was somehow flawed. Everything reported past 1am was skewed towards Bush, regardless of previous multiple polling data/trends.

We also know these e-voting systems do not provide a paper audit trail, and have been proven by numnerous computer scientists (Johns Hopkins, Rice University) and INFOSEC experts (RABA Technologies) to be easily hackable. In fact, the Johns Hopkins and Rice University researchers candidly stated in their 2003 technical analysis that the serious security flaws in the Diebold source code rendered it "unsuitable for use in a general election." RABA's 2004 "test enviroment" simulated the Diebold voting system as it was deployed last week all across America and their findings of security flaws are even more disconcerting given their team's ability to easily and transparently hack the system and change the results.

The only way to verify if these well-documented and easily exploited vulnerabilities actually occured would require an INFOSEC forensic investigation of the source code in the computers which did the actual county and/or state tabulations, and an analysis of all modem/network activity from the county to the central tabulators in the weeks before and during the election. This could be accomplished by a team of expert network analysts and INFOSEC experts - and for less money than that "army of lawyers" that we heard so much about.

However, I do not expect this type of investigation - which is imperative based on the publically known data - to occur in a willing manner within our current political structure.

Thus, it is with great sadness and anger I must profess my analysis of extreme variances in the the data strongly supports the our Election was indeed hacked in atleast two states, possibly more, and that We The People no longer live under a funcational Democratic Repuiblic. Thomas Paine stated at the founding of our nation:

"The right of voting for representatives is the primary right by which all other rights are protected. To take away thus right is to reduce man to slavery."

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 12:04 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. FANTASTIC POST! A CLASSIC! KEEP THIS MUTHA KICKED.
IT DESERVES ITS OWN THREAD.
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glugglug Donating Member (123 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. Someone send this to Bev Harris
What the "updated" exit polls tell us is that AP is in on the fix.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #22
29. Kick, with special attention to Petrodollar Warfare's post n/t
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kristndem Donating Member (346 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #22
35. kick
ing
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donkeyotay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #16
23. thanks to those building the statistical case
In the reality-based community that is called FRAUD, but in the faith-based community this is called "conspiracy theory."

The truth might set us free.

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Q3JR4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #16
26. First link doesn't work. n/t
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Petrodollar Warfare Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #26
31. Try this link...
..it was under the General Discussion Campiagn 2004...which is achived???

By SoCalDemocrat (Nov 3rd, 1:53 am)

Kerry winning Exit Polls - FRAUD LOOKS PROBABLE
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 12:28 PM
Response to Reply #16
27. Please clarify effect of "adjusting" exit polls with actual votes
reported, as AP says they did. This is the only factor I see missing from this brilliant analysis.
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Petrodollar Warfare Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 01:29 PM
Response to Reply #27
32. Well it was actually manipulating the machine counts to...
..fit the exit polls - sort of - regardless of the laws of mathematics. In most states, these "revisions" were not done as the exit polls correctly matched the actual ballot counts within 1% or so. This is the sign of a legitimate election. In fact, in Germany and other industrialized nations the exit polls typically match within 0.1% - but here in America something has happened in Florida in 2000, and in Georgia/Minnesota in 2002...

...and in 2004 something bizarre happened in numerous states. The final exit polls around 6pm stayed the same until "updated" by a sweep of exit polling data very late in the day. We know this occured at 1am for Ohio and Florida, but some posters have suggested another "sweep" changed the exit polls to some sudden/improbable swings before midnight. Here's what is known:

Ohio's final 4th/REAL exit poll was Kerry 51 vs Bush 49 (which closely matches the 1st, 2nd and 3rd exit polls), but the 1:41am AP "sweep" caused the networks to change the supposed exit polls to Kerry 49% vs. Bush 51%. In the above post I expose the sample sizes reflected in these 1:41 am revisions makes this "adjustment" mathematically impossible, and obviously fradulent.

A similar "revision" of affected the final 4th/real exit polls was implemented by the AP and affected Florida (Bush +7%), Minnesota (Bush +7%), New Hampshire (Bush +15%), Pennsylvania (Bush +5%), North Carolina (Bush +9%) and Wisconsin (Bush +4%). All of these states with the possible exception of Wisconsin fall well outside the Margin of Error (MOE) and deserve careful analysis for Election Fraud.

What we desperately need are the associated sample sizes of the 4th/final exit polls that were postd on various Internet sites from about 7pm till perhaps 10-11pm, versus the sample sizes for the suspect AP "exit poll sweep" that occured later that night. Things began to happen late on evening of Nov 2nd adn early in teh moorning regarding shifts in "revised exit poll" data that was designed to "better reflect" the machine counts - regardless of what the first 4/real exit exit polls showed. Any help with obtaining this data for the other 5 states would be greatly appreciated!

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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #16
38. Make sure Mike Malloy and Randi Rhodes get this!
Also send to Mike Webb who has also been coverng the fraud issue on 710 KIRO is in Seattle -- he also has streaming over the Internet.

http://www.710kiro.com (Mike Webb's show is 10-1am Pacific time)

http://www.mikewebb.org /

http://www.therandirhodesshow.com /

http://www.mikemalloy.com /

These are the ones who are getting the vote FRAUD issue on the airwaves.
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City Lights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 12:18 PM
Response to Original message
25. A big "thank you" from a member of the numerically-declined
community. :crazy:
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txindy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 12:37 PM
Response to Original message
28. Amazing work
Thanks for undertaking all of this and getting the results posted! :toast:

Plus, a big welcome to DU, JS! :hi:
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DFLer4edu Donating Member (675 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 12:41 PM
Response to Original message
30. How did you pull the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll results?
Edited on Wed Nov-10-04 12:41 PM by DFLer4edu
This is the most convincing thing I've seen so far, but I would be interested to how you put together the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll results for 47 states as CNN has fudged them over.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 02:58 PM
Response to Original message
34. get back up there...
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greenmutha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 03:36 PM
Response to Original message
37. Kicking! n/t
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prairierose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 04:53 PM
Response to Original message
40. kick..this is important &
thanks from one of the mathematically challenged!
:kick:
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ROH Donating Member (521 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 06:31 PM
Response to Original message
41. Very important information here. (n/t)
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 06:37 PM
Response to Original message
42. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
intelle Donating Member (416 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 06:40 PM
Response to Original message
43. Looks like we have a troll
I've seen him in other threads also. He is definitely not a dem supporter.
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Carl Brennan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 07:07 PM
Response to Original message
45. Oh yea. This makes Big Daddy happy!!
Fantastic work.

It is the difference between the non-battlground/non-critical states and the critical ones that neutralize the "Dixiecrat" factor that is being tossed around as the reason for exit poll--actual poll divergence. I've been trying to get this info for a few days now.


This should be enough to get an investigation going. Need to get this to Conyers--Wexler.

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jsascj Donating Member (425 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 07:13 PM
Response to Original message
47. I'm so tired of being sick about this election...
Why doesn't someone out there get it and get it out? Did Nader have his press conference?
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