What is the point of an exit poll if it incorporates "real" results

[elperromagico]

as it goes along? This is probably a question that has been asked before.

If exit polls are regarded - as they are in most other countries that use them - as a guard against fraud, then why incorporate "real" and potentially tainted results? If they are meant to simply "forecast" the election outcome so that the media talking heads can adjust their reportage accordingly, then what's the point?

If the exit polls had been "adjusted" in the Ukraine to suit the fraudulent returns, Victor Yushchenko would be out of a job. And we all agree those results were fraudulent, right? We didn't shake our heads and say, "Oh, Yushchenko supporters were more willing to respond" or "Women were weighted too heavily."

If they're not a guard against fraud, what's the point of them?

Just asking.

[lenidog]

1. They are also used to give the news media something to talk about

and to predict who is winning.

[elperromagico]

2. And the media - at least to my ears - was talking about a Kerry win

on the night of 2 November. They weren't saying that overtly, but I remember very clearly flipping through channels and hearing William Kristol on Fox News say that he'd "rather be in Kerry's shoes right now."

Strange thing for Bill Kristol to say, if everything was going Bush's way that night...

[lenidog]

3. Yes it was rrather strange normally I would have said it was a fluke

remembering the "Dewey beats Truman" headline but there is the definite smell of rat in the whole deal. Though I am not sure how far the thievery went I know it happened.

[LatePeriduct]

4. Its the new dominionist talking point.

Exit polls are never a guard against fraud, do nothing for our country, so lets just get rid of them forever. Ban exit polls.

Now you see...

[elperromagico]

5. Considering that the US backed Yushschenko in the Ukraine

and one of the main pieces of evidence supporting the accusations of fraud was the exit polls, that seems like something of a straw man.

[LatePeriduct]

6. If the shoe fits, wear it....

They can always keep exit polls in other countries, because they are so amazingly accurate. But no need to have them in the USA, since our voting system is now so technically evololutionized....accurate beyond words.

Magna Carta.

[elperromagico]

7. If anything, the US needs *more* exit polls.

One poll showing Kerry the winner was easily dismissed.

What if two had shown the same thing? Or three? Or more?

I'm sure the GOP and the media could and would dismiss that many exit polls, but it would be harder to do.

[FreedomAngel82]

8. Yep

The thing I like to ask is how come they worked in Ukraine?? What about here in our country? :eyes: Of course if you ask a republican they'd say all the polls were skewed unless they agreed with them. Go figure. I know I made a post about this but a week ago my town had a mayoral race and the new mayor leading up to the election day was winning all the polls just like Kerry. I don't think we had exit polling though. :shrug: But I do believe in polls and anybody who says they don't work, to me, are full of shit and trying to hide from the truth.

[LatePeriduct]

11. The polls were skewed.

From a certain point of view.......Alot of voters were disqualified and the regime doesn't want anyone to know about it.

[Igel]

9. It's like asking "What's the point of having a screwdriver if it's not

torx?"

Different tools for different uses.

You get fast results, and demographic information in the Mitofsky method.

Or you get independently accurate results, in other methods.

It's hard to make one a reasonable poll using the methods to do both: you need to survey lots of people, a true random sample, and get high participation. That means short questionnaire, with lots of pollsters blanketing the country. That's not cheap. The media don't want to fund that; they ordered a torx, and expected a torx. Germany wants a phillips, they order a phillips.

It's been said that one exit poll is worse than none. This was in the context of the Mitofsky poll in California one year predicting Feinstein (I think it was) was the runaway winner for governor. The California Poll said otherwise, it spooked Mitofsky, and he had to fight to keep his poll from being used to publically declare Governor Feinstein (?) the hands-down winner.

The next day, the interim but complete results showed Wilson (I think it was) won by a decent margin, I think well outside the margin of error for Mitofsky's polls.

[libertypirate]

10. 180 degrees from reality...

If they're not a guard against fraud, what's the point of them?

If you are going to steal an election have a backup protocol... Exit poles mainly act to support the "official" tally. You do the math.