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The National Exit Poll: A Tragedy in Three Acts

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-15-05 09:01 PM
Original message
The National Exit Poll: A Tragedy in Three Acts
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 09:59 PM by TruthIsAll
There weren't three exit polls, two preliminary and a final.
This was a Three Act Tragedy that could have been written by
Shakespeare. Unfortunately, there is not one Bard among the
MSM. 

In this case, truth is stranger than any fiction the Bard
could ever come up with - even if he had a personal computer.
But then again, he never googled, did he?

Act I
7:38pm
11027 respondents participated.

Scene I
A majority (54%) of the voters were women.
Th gender mix stayed constant throughout the vote.
Kerry, like Gore and Clinton before him, is winning the female
vote by a solid 54-45%. It looks like he's going to win by
almost 4 million votes.

Gender
	      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
	M	46%	51%	47%	2%
	F	54%	45%	54%	1%

		100%	47.76%	50.78%	1.46%
		122.26	58.39	62.08	1.78
Scene II					
The Party mix is 38% Democratic, 36% Republican and 26%
Independents. Since Gore and Clinton each had a 39/35 Party Id
edge, Kerry is not doing quite as well in this category. But
the Independents are clearly in Kerry's column, 52%-45%. Well,
maybe Kerry wins by 3.5 million.

PARTY ID
	      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
	Dem	38%	9%	90%	1%
	Rep	36%	92%	7%	1%
	Ind	26%	45%	52%	3%

		100%	48.24%	50.24%	1.52%
		122.26	58.98	61.42	1.86
						
Scene III
New players are voting big-time for Kerry, by a 3-2 margin.
Apparently, 100% of Bush 2000 voters are turning out. Since
122.26 million voted in 2004, for Bush 2000 voters to comprise
41% of 122.26 million, then 50.12 million of them had to turn
out this time. Bush had 50.456 million votes in 2000, so it
appears that just 300,000 of those voters passed on, defying
the U.S. annual 0.87% death rate.  

But Kerry is winning anyway. Now it looks like 4.5 million
votes.

VOTED 2000	
               Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
	No	17%	39%	59%	2%
	Gore	38%	8%	91%	1%
	Bush	41%	90%	9%	1%
	Dem	4%	13%	65%	22%

		100%	47.09%	50.90%	2.01%
		122.26	57.57	62.23	2.46
	
ACT II
12:22am
13047	respondents	
The cast grows by 2020. 

Scene I
But just like the first 11027, they still love Kerry. He's
holding his solid lead among the women who still comprise 54%
of the vote. He's up by 3.1 million.

Gender
	      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
	M	46%	52%	47%	1%
	F	54%	45%	54%	1%

		100%	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%
		122.26	58.95	62.08	1.22
					
Scene II
Kerry is widening his Party Id lead slightly to 38/35%. It
looks like he's converging on the Clinton/Gore 39/35% mix. And
he's holding his lead among independents. But when you think
about it, that's to be expected, since only 2020 additional
respondents are added to the original 11027. The trend has
already been established. He's clearly a winner by around 3.6
million.

PARTY ID
      	      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
	Dem	38%	9%	90%	1%
	Rep	35%	92%	7%	1%
	Ind	27%	45%	52%	3%

		100%	47.77%	50.69%	1.54%
		122.26	58.40	61.97	1.88

Scene III
Kerry is even creeping up on Bush in the Voted 2000 category,
as 39% of Gore 2000 voters have turned out.  Kerry's share of
new voters has dropped slightly from a 20% margin to 16%. But
it's still a very significant lead. After all, Gore won the
popular vote in 2000 and Kerry is winning a clear majority of
new voters. Would you believe a 4.2 million win?

      	     Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
          No	17%	41%	57%	2%
        Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%
        Bush	41%	90%	9%	1%
       Other	3%	13%	65%	22%

            	100%	47.38%	50.82%	1.80%
	      122.26	57.93	62.13	2.20


The fat lady is getting ready to sing. The final 613 players
are about to enter the stage.

ACT III
2:05 pm
13660	respondents	

Scene I
Something is going terribly wrong! The women, as strong a
voting bloc as ever, have decided to desert Kerry, despite
supporting Clinton, Gore and Kerry up until this final, short
act. Kerry now has just a three point edge in this extremely
important voter bloc. That's down from 9%. And the males are
moving strongly to Bush. He has an 11% lead in that group. It
looks like Bush has a 4 million vote mandate.
				

Gender
		Mix   Bush	Kerry	Nader
       M	46%	55%	44%	1%
       F	54%	48%	51%	1%

	     100%	51.22%	47.78%	1.00%
	     122.26	62.62	58.42	1.22
			
Scene II
It looks like the Democrats are now saying the hell with it
all. These last 660 respondents must really be fuming. Kerry
has lost the Party ID edge that he had every right to believe
was his up until just a few hours ago. What did he do to anger
these last few Democrats? Even the Independents are deserting
him. His 7% margin is down to 1%. That Bush mandate is still
solid: 3.75 million.


		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
	Dem	37%	11%	89%	0%
      Rep	37%	93%	6%	1%
	Ind	26%	48%	49%	3%

       	100%	50.96%	47.89%	1.15%
		122.26	62.30	58.55	1.41
					
Scene III
And finally, the nail in the coffin...is pulled away. The Bush
2000 voters who died, all 1.75 million of them, have risen
from the grave to keep Bush in the White House. The new voters
sense the debacle unfolding; Kerry is losing them as well. His
lead is down to just 54% of new voters. Even Gore 2000 voters
are saying the hell with Kerry, we don't care if Bush stole it
from us in 2000, he stole it fair and square. Now 10% of the
Gore voters, fully 5 million of them, are voting for Bush.

It's Bush by a little over 3 million votes, some of them
reincarnated, but those votes count nevertheless..

The Fat Lady has indeed sung a sad dirge after taking time off
from her job at Diebold.	
					
	        Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
	No	17%	45%	54%	1%
	Gore	37%	10%	90%	0%
      Bush	43%	91%	9%	0%
	Other	3%	21%	71%	8%

		100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.41%
		122.26	62.49	59.27	0.50
					
					
					
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-15-05 09:08 PM
Response to Original message
1. Some tragedy....
It almost looks like they just played mix up match with the numbers and all their affiliations.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-16-05 06:46 AM
Response to Reply #1
8. THE THREE ACTS: BROUGHT TO YOU BY YOUR FAVORITE MSM
Edited on Sat Apr-16-05 07:21 AM by TruthIsAll
ACT I:
CNN Preliminary Exit Poll
7:38pm Nov. 2
11027 Respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm

ACT II:
NEP/WP Preliminary Exit Poll
12:22am Nov. 3
13047 Respondents
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

ACT III:
CNN Final Exit Poll
2:05pm Nov. 3
13660 Respondents
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/U...

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In Truth We Trust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-15-05 09:28 PM
Response to Original message
2. Nominate. Worst three part tragedy I've ever witnessed
Thanks for the analysis TIA
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 05:12 AM
Response to Reply #2
11. The tragedy of....
The mainstream media unwilling to do their job.

Instead they were bottom feeded by Howard Ahmanson, who also set it up to have Terry Schiavo's tube miraculously removed by Jesus right at the same day the election fraud movement was making a new media......
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glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-15-05 09:33 PM
Response to Original message
3. This is the best one yet - many people who don't get numbers understand
narrative very well. Nominated.
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mistertrickster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-15-05 11:21 PM
Response to Original message
4. Yeah, something is rotten in the state of Denmark. Every "expert" that
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 11:24 PM by mistertrickster
is interviewed always says the same thing--'exit polls are the most reliable polls you can use.' Then, why were these off? 'We don't really know. They were just off.'

Ah, well, that clears that up, then.

On edit--The Frontline profile of Karl Rove did the same thing. "Exit polls showed Kerry far ahead in the evening hours." Then, suddenly GW pulls ahead in Ohio and Florida and the popular vote.

The last you hear about pesky exit polls.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. The last you hear on Frontline...but not the last you will hear elsewhere.
.
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. kicking.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-15-05 11:54 PM
Response to Original message
5. TIA, this is the best synopsis yet.
Thanks.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-16-05 06:40 AM
Response to Original message
6. Too late to edit....
Edited on Sat Apr-16-05 07:23 AM by TruthIsAll
Act I, Scene III:

Dem	4%	13%	65%	22% 
should read:
Other	4%	13%	65%	22%

Act II, Scene II:
Kerry had an EIGHT (8) point lead among Independents.
That brings his margin up to 3.90 million votes.

Ind	27%	45%	52%	3%
should read:
Ind	27%	44%	52%	4%

	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem	38%	9%	90%	1%
Rep	35%	92%	7%	1%
Ind	27%	44%	52%	4%
	100%	47.50%	50.69%	1.81%
	122.26	58.07	61.97	2.21


Act II, Scene III:
A full 10% of Bush 2000 voters were for Kerry.
That brings his margin up to 4.70 million votes.

Bush	41%	90%	9%	1%
should read:
Bush	41%	90%	10%	0%


	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	41%	57%	2%
Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%
Bush	41%	90%	10%	0%
Other	3%	13%	65%	22%

	100%	47.38%	51.23%	1.39%
	122.26	57.93	62.63	1.70

Note: 
I have "plugged" the Nader percentage to force a
100% total wherever necessary so the total vote would always
equal 122.26 mm. This does NOT effect the Kerry or Bush
numbers.
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cilla4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-16-05 06:42 AM
Response to Original message
7. Makes me want to cry.
I continue to refuse to engage in meaningful conversations about the "morals" issues the electorate supposedly voted on...

Doesn't the media get it that it was these very same flawed exit polls that supplied those responses? No one has seriously attempted to explain this anomaly. In fact, I could get paranoid and start believing that the rush to exclaim that the American electorate voted its moral values is not just a misnomer, but an actual strategy to get us to THINK that's what we did...that we are more divided on those lines than we really are.

It sickens me.
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-16-05 03:52 PM
Response to Original message
9. MNA, May 2 2005: A day to reflect on the vast and accumulating costs...
....of the stolen election of 2004 (and 2000).


Recommended.


www.missionnotaccomplished.us
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Kip Humphrey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 07:07 AM
Response to Original message
12. Question: Since Bush voters "resurrected" in 2004 to vote Bush, in 2008
Will the Rapturists return from heaven to ensure a Republican victory?

If so, will the Help Rapturists Vote Naked Voting Act be passed in 2007?

Inquiring theologians want to know...
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byronius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 03:58 PM
Response to Original message
13. I keep thinking about the internal emotions of the cadre that pulled
this off. The super-joy of a sneaky crime, completely free of penalty. Probably one of the largest crimes in history -- the need to gloat and dance the joy of sneakiness must be bursting within them. The reasoning -- obvious and simple: we know how it's supposed to be, so we'll just make it that way. A complete repudiation of democracy. A 'rescuing' of America that turns it into a totalitarian state.

I formally wish for them to suffer for this.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 06:27 PM
Response to Original message
15. While we are on the subject of state and national poll confirmation...
let's take a break and go to the theater of the absurd.

The 3-act tragicomedy called The National Exit Poll
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 06:58 PM
Response to Original message
16. With Rue My Heart is Laden
For Democracy is Dead.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-27-05 01:34 AM
Response to Original message
17. kick.nt
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MontageOfFreedom Donating Member (633 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-27-05 02:50 AM
Response to Original message
18. The day our democracy was bludgeoned....
So sad.
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