Could it have been a NBR?
Not an RBR (reluctant).
Not an EBR (exuberant).
Just a plain old Natural Bush Responder?
Besides, wasn't it Edison-Mitofsky who matched the votes? They
adjusted the "How Voted in 2000" demographic
weighting from 41 Bush/39% Gore in the preliminary 13047 to
43%/37% after adding those last 613 respondents in the Final
13660.
It sure wasn't the respondents who changed the weights. They
wouldn't have a clue.
Furthermore, the true mix was probably 39 Bush/ 40% Gore,
since 1.5-2.0 million Bush 2000 voters passed on - as did
Gore's. So maybe Bush voters WERE a little exuberant in the
preliminary (41/39%).
Even so, Kerry won the preliminary poll by 51-48%. Bush won
the final by the same 51-48% (with the help of that impossible
43/37 mix).
No RBR.
No EBR.
Just NBR.
So let's get back to reality.
Let's make it a very plausible Gore 40/39%
Kerry won by 7.42 million votes.
Voted 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
22.471 None 18.38% 41% 57% 2%
48.904 Gore 40% 8% 91% 1%
47.681 Bush 39% 90% 9% 1%
3.203 Other 2.62% 13% 71% 16%
100% 46.18% 52.25% 1.58%
122.26 Votes 122.26 56.46 63.88 1.93
Kerry Margin 7.42